Pokémon Lucario

[myw]

Let me put down some calcs, since discussing the boosting sets is boiling down to "Boosted Lucario kills everything!" and "But scarf Sect kills it and it's hard to set up!"

Here are some arbitrary calcs against OU pokemon without boosting. I feel like this is worthwhile because Deoxys was banned for being a mixed beast, and Lucario seems rather similar in that regard. Plus, showing its power would allow better discussion about how it can be unpredictable. Because I'm lazy, I'm only doing the calcs for its stabs on both sides. Extreme speed should probably be looked into, but eeeh I'd rather someone else do it

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Genesect: 192-228 (67.8 - 80.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Gengar: 234-276 (89.3 - 105.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Garchomp: 326-384 (91 - 107.2%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 212-250 (59.2 - 69.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Bullet Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Garchomp: 110-130 (30.7 - 36.3%) -- 98.8% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Eviolite Chansey: 824-972 (117 - 138%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Hippowdon: 200-236 (47.6 - 56.1%) -- 82.8% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery

-1 252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Gyarados: 126-149 (37.9 - 44.8%) -- 74.2% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Rotom-W: 294-348 (96.7 - 114.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
(294, 298, 302, 306, 308, 312, 316, 320, 322, 326, 330, 334, 336, 340, 344, 348)
252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Rotom-W: 236-278 (77.6 - 91.4%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Talonflame: 206-243 (69.1 - 81.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
(206, 208, 211, 213, 216, 218, 221, 223, 225, 228, 230, 233, 235, 238, 240, 243)

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Ferrothorn: 372-440 (105.6 - 125%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 592-700 (153.3 - 181.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Heatran: 256-304 (66.3 - 78.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Greninja: 864-1020 (302 - 356.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
(wow there was no point to that calc)

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Togekiss: 244-288 (65.2 - 77%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Bullet Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Togekiss: 220-260 (58.8 - 69.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Tyranitar: 736-872 (182.1 - 215.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
(pointless calccccs)

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Aegislash-Shield: 65-77 (20 - 23.7%) -- possible 5HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
(probably why people do crunch)

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Scizor: 312-368 (90.6 - 106.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Azumarill: 222-262 (54.9 - 64.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Bullet Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Azumarill: 126-150 (31.1 - 37.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Gliscor: 234-276 (66.1 - 77.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Skarmory: 248-292 (74.2 - 87.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery (funny thing, the skarm dies if it BBs)

252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Goodra: 418-492 (108.8 - 128.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO

So basically Mixcario could proooobably 2hko the entire metagame, depending on build. Has some fancy OHKOs too, especially with rocks.

Basically- without boosts, Lucario is pretty hard to counter, still. With some smart/lucky switches you could force it out, but I don't think it's usually worth the risk. Very basic calcs, though. I'm sure there are things I haven't considered, I wasn't trying that hard.

Personally, I'm leaning towards broken, because I feel like this thing can guarantee a kill almost every time it gets in, but that getting in part is still an issue probably and again, there's probably a lot I am neglecting to consider.

 

[Van-Hellsing]

Hmm... I'm new around here, but I just wanted to leave some input as someone who's been brawling it out in the random battles domain:

It is incredibly likely that Mega Lucario is ban material. I've done quite a few play tests with all three sets and Nasty Plot, even without priority, has occasionally trashed opposing players. While it's true that the mind games on Mega Lucario are part of what makes it so terrifying, I don't think that's a very solid or fair argument to ban it. Now, the fact that it can nuke most of OU regardless of whether he be physical or special is certainly something worth noting (boosted or not), but mind games just sound like someone being upset that they weren't ready for something that -no offense- probably should have come under consideration after a bit of careful research.

Alright. I'm done mouthing off. Anyway, to contribute to what's going on, Lucario cannot bust through a Dragonite with Multiscale active.

Proof: +2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Multiscale Dragonite: 184-217 (56.7 - 66.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Yes. Adaptability is active in this calculation.

Dragonite on the other hand is capable of retaliating with a potential OHKO Earthquake.

Proof: 252+ Atk Dragonite Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega Lucario: 272-322 (96.7 - 114.5%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

Please take note that Dragonite does not have a Life Orb in this calculation; therefore, it is reasonable to assume that Life Orb variants ensure the kill. In that sense, is it not correct to consider Dragonite as a Nasty Plot Lucario check? While I realize that Multiscale has to be active for this to work (Seeing as no Multiscale is a OHKO), I feel that it's at least worth the consideration.

I feel it also important to note that tanky variants of Mega Blastoise are also capable of defending against a boosted Mega Lucario and hitting it right back for the assured OHKO.

+2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 4+ SpD Mega Blastoise: 296-350 (81.7 - 96.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

(Note: This M-Blastoise is running a Calm Nature. Modest Nature has a 37.5% chance of suffering a OHKO)

Meanwhile

252 SpA Mega Launcher Mega Blastoise Aura Sphere vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Mega Lucario: 360-424 (128.1 - 150.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

While this is also situational, I thought it wise to bring up as I've actually encountered people who have used Mega Blastoise spreads like this one. Additionally, Mega Charizard Y is an excellent candidate for being a hard counter (or at the very least a check) to Mega Lucario. I'm serious. Check it out!

+2 252 SpA Mega Lucario Dark Pulse vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Mega Charizard Y: 164-193 (55 - 64.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Meanwhile

252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Flamethrower vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Lucario: 458-540 (162.9 - 192.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO

This calculation obviously uses a stronger fire attack, but take note that this is BEFORE the sun was factored in. This means that even some weaker fire attacks would totally wreck Mega Lucario. While Stealth Rocks changes the situation completely, this is a great piece of data to take note of for teams that may use Sticky Web to get around the potential Stealth Rock problem.

Note: Every move Mega Lucario has in this set (Aura Sphere, Dark Pulse, and Flash Cannon) dealt the exact same amount of damage to Mega Charizard Y.

There are a few Poke Bank pokemon that come to mind as well, but from what I've seen, that's not quite what we want to discuss right now, so I'll leave this example here as food for thought.

I will say this though: What most of these calculations imply is that if you aren't a certain dragon with a great defensive ability, you have to be a particular Mega to take Mega Lucario out. This essentially means that few things short of a specific check and/or counter are going to stop him. Take note however that he IS possible to revenge kill. That option is never out and is something that should be considered when looking at Mega Lucario and comparing him to behemoths like Mega Gengar (Who is arguably scarier) and Mega Kengaskhan (Whose wrecking prowess far exceeds Mega Lucario's).

Personal opinion: I don't want to see him banned, but it's obvious that he's insanely powerful. *Sigh* Bummer. This guy was one of my favorites too...

...Alright. I'm done whining. Now, after attempting to look competent in the subject matter, I have a noob question for you all: isn't Nasty Plot viable on normal Lucario this time around? I realize that -especially out of its Mega form- Nasty Plot sets are far weaker, but it does hit for a pretty decent amount of damage. If we're going to complain that mind games are a huge part of what make Mega Lucario scary, that's a good way to get the drop on someone using normal Lucario. Of course, team support is ideal for this kind of set up.

 

[tab]

standard blaziken is already banned, so we dont need to ban blazikenite n_n

also rofl using multiscale dragonite as a counter

 

[Van-Hellsing]

Ah. Fair enough. Still, I want to see what everyone thinks. It's obvious just from those calcs alone that few things are going to stop it safely, but it does prove that it's not impossible. A fair amount of teams also support and/or can be built with those particular pokemon as their mega slot.

Or in Dragonite's case, it's a fairly viable and great pokemon for all sorts of teams.

 

[Shurtugal]

1.) Van-Hellsing you need to calc these pokemon vs. physical Lucario too to make a strong argument.

2.) Also, Dragonite is a frail check because SR or any prior damage ruins your check to Lucario, making it unreliable; however, tab this user said Dragonite should be considered as a Check, not Counter, and Dragonite fits this technical description albeit a very shaky check.

I felt the need to say something since he's new and a moderator has already laughed at him :/

 

[PrincessDerpy]

It's not the power so much as the combination of power and speed. 112 is quite a step up from previous "can't switch into this" champions such as Kyu-B.

 

[Hidious]

It's not the power so much as the combination of power and speed. 112 is quite a step up from previous "can't switch into this" champions such as Kyu-B.

Even resisted stab hits hit the same as a neutral non-stab move. Adaptability pretty much makes any stab move he has spammable. With good support, he can weaken down his counters fast. Being 4 x resist to stealth rock while most of his checks are weak to it helps too.

 

[56k]

This pokemon is really great but just doesn't compare at all with the other 3 banned megas. Kangaskhan hit harder unboosted anyway and had the untauntable boosting move. Lucario is hardly different from other asshole pokemon like garchomp, aegislash, kyurem-b, genies, dragonite, genesect, etc, that have the stats across the board to boost in different ways, use mixed offenses, speed, might be specs/band/scarf/sash, and do not have counters. The idea that something could/should be counterable is dumb because hidden power exists since gen 2 and then gen 4 destroyed everything a long time ago with its high BP moves. Gen 5 and 6 exacerbated things by adding more and more power creep. By now no one should feel entitled to having counters to anything. Go read about Freeze Dry and how LO Mamoswine can get through Rotom-W now lol. Gyarados isn't a counter because NP Lucario might randomly have HP Electric. Venusaur is a great answer as well but what if Dark Pulse flinched you. I personally don't like using Lucario because he takes too much damage from CB Talonflame, and that one pokemon is, in my opinion, enough to make Lucario annoying/strong/good but not over the top. Not even mentioning all the other checks out there, including sturdy and sash users.

When I do use lucario, it is always SD/CC/BP/ES. It's just reliable and does it's job. I don't care that aegislash hard counters me because I wouldn't stay in anyway, considering CB shadow sneak variants can spoil your day at low HP even if you had earthquake or dark pulse on your set. It's hard to set up, sure, but he's actually there just to spam unboosted close combat and threaten to set up. I don't often actually have him set up and sweep through the enemy, more often he breaks something that opens the door for my more preferable pokemon (only opinion) like genesect and latios. When he does get the SD up on things like blissey and ferrothorn, well, god damn he's strong.

I have a love-hate relationship with this pokemon. As I mentioned before, I really hate how much damage he takes from talonflame's brave bird. But I love how much unboosted CC does to the likes of Rotom-W, Genesect, Goodra, Hippowdon, etc. I actually think Tyranitar+Rotom-W is my most hated pokemon combo in the whole OU scene lol, so being able to just effortlessly crush it and completely destroy anyone who uses it... is amazing.

 

[lordkira]

Can we stop comparing Mega Lucari too the other already-banned megas?
Whether they were more broken or not, we should be focusing on Mega Lucario's effect in the metagame not the previously-banned megas.

 

[Honesty]

Has anyone had any luck using a mixed Work Up set? I've been running this and its quite effective as long as your team has good coverage for Lucario:

Lucario (M) @ Lucarionite
Ability: Steadfast
EVs: 252 Spd / 112 SAtk / 144 Atk
Hasty Nature
- Work Up
- Close Combat
- Dark Pulse
- Bullet Punch/ExtremeSpeed/Vacuum Wave
Work Up, the cornerstone of the set boosting both Special and Physical Attack catching many opponents off guard trying to predict the set. Close Combat since its the strongest fighting STAB move for Lucario this is the preferred option over Aura Sphere. Dark Pulse for coverage on
Aegislash and other ghosts as well as a solid special move. The last slot can go to a priority move, BP for fairies and scarfed TTars as well as STAB, ES for out-prioritizing Talonflame, and Vacuum Wave if you want the STAB and a priority Special move.

 

[TKGriffiths]

Has anyone had any luck using a mixed Work Up set? I've been running this and its quite effective as long as your team has good coverage for Lucario:

Lucario (M) @ Lucarionite
Ability: Steadfast
EVs: 252 Spd / 112 SAtk / 144 Atk
Hasty Nature
- Work Up
- Close Combat
- Dark Pulse
- Bullet Punch/ExtremeSpeed/Vacuum Wave
Work Up, the cornerstone of the set boosting both Special and Physical Attack catching many opponents off guard trying to predict the set. Close Combat since its the strongest fighting STAB move for Lucario this is the preferred option over Aura Sphere. Dark Pulse for coverage on
Aegislash and other ghosts as well as a solid special move. The last slot can go to a priority move, BP for fairies and scarfed TTars as well as STAB, ES for out-prioritizing Talonflame, and Vacuum Wave if you want the STAB and a priority Special move.

What's the point of the set though? What does +1 Dark Pulse do that +2 Crunch doesn't?

 

[lordkira]

I don't like the mixed set simply because both physical and special (special to a much lesser degree) can destroy walls.
The problem both sets have is the coverage for specific pokemons.
For example, Physical Mega Lucario's CC already destroys the tier's premiere physical walls whether they resist it or not most of the times.

 

[Alejandro36]

What are some good team partners for Megalucario? I ran today into some guy using espeon as light screen + reflect support and it makes setting up easier. Something that baits chansey/blissey could be good too, since lucario can set up on every one of them not carrying thunder wave.

 

[Liarliarpantsonfire]

What are some good team partners for Megalucario? I ran today into some guy using espeon as light screen + reflect support and it makes setting up easier. Something that baits chansey/blissey could be good too, since lucario can set up on every one of them not carrying thunder wave.

Hazard setters, Deoxys-D in particular help a lot. Because of Mega Lucario's access to priority the extra hazard damage can help him take out faster threats and continue a sweep. Mandibuzz is also a good teammate as it handles Aegislash very well, and switches in on Ground-moves for Lucario. Mega Lucario is really at its best as a late game sweeper, so you want to help it achieve that goal.

 

[Noobish]

Why not Focus Blast instead of Aura Sphere? You've still got Flash Cannon, and the extra damage may get a vital KO (Kyogre I am looking at you), where Aura Sphere doesn't. A 70% chance of living is still better than a 0% percent one right?

 

[TheUltimateStorm]

Why not Focus Blast instead of Aura Sphere? You've still got Flash Cannon, and the extra damage may get a vital KO (Kyogre I am looking at you), where Aura Sphere doesn't. A 70% chance of living is still better than a 0% percent one right?

Because Focus Blast is inconsistent as all heck, it WILL miss when you need it the most, hence it's fan title Focus Miss. Aura Sphere cannot miss under any circumstances, so thus is more consistent then Focus Blast. Plus, after a boost, Kyogre cannot switch in safely, here's a calc for ya:

+2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Kyogre: 276-326 (80.7 - 95.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

And assuming SR is in play: +2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Kyogre: 276-326 (80.7 - 95.3%) -- 50% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

So after a boost stuff like Kyogre can't switch in safely, granted I'm using the EV Spread for Kyogre's Gen V Scarf Set, so a full invested Kyogre would sponge hits a bit better.

 

[Noobish]

Because Focus Blast is inconsistent as all heck, it WILL miss when you need it the most, hence it's fan title Focus Miss. Aura Sphere cannot miss under any circumstances, so thus is more consistent then Focus Blast. Plus, after a boost, Kyogre cannot switch in safely, here's a calc for ya:

+2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Kyogre: 276-326 (80.7 - 95.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

And assuming SR is in play: +2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Aura Sphere vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Kyogre: 276-326 (80.7 - 95.3%) -- 50% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

So after a boost stuff like Kyogre can't switch in safely, granted I'm using the EV Spread for Kyogre's Gen V Scarf Set, so a full invested Kyogre would sponge hits a bit better.

Ah. I see. How about Vacuum Wave? Still can't decide on that one.

 

[TheUltimateStorm]

Ah. I see. How about Vacuum Wave? Still can't decide on that one.

To the Calc Mobile!

+2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Vacuum Wave vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Kyogre: 138-164 (40.3 - 47.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

After SR: +2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Vacuum Wave vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Kyogre: 138-164 (40.3 - 47.9%) -- 58.2% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock

So based on the numbers, Kyogre cannot switch into Mega Lucario packing Vaccum Wave while SR is up, and this is assuming it dosen't take another attack on the switch in, like Dark Pulse or Shadow Ball or if their running both Aura Sphere and VW, as after Adaptability VW is essentially a Special Extremespeed.

 

[Noobish]

To the Calc Mobile!

+2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Vacuum Wave vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Kyogre: 138-164 (40.3 - 47.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

After SR: +2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Vacuum Wave vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Kyogre: 138-164 (40.3 - 47.9%) -- 58.2% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock

So based on the numbers, Kyogre cannot switch into Mega Lucario packing Vaccum Wave while SR is up, and this is assuming it dosen't take another attack on the switch in, like Dark Pulse or Shadow Ball or if their running both Aura Sphere and VW, as after Adaptability VW is essentially a Special Extremespeed.

Given that AS murders everything that FC doesn't, I may go with AS/FC/DP/NP then, and exclude VW. Damn 4MSS... On that note, time to farm heart scales.

 

[Katakiri]

What are some good team partners for Megalucario? I ran today into some guy using espeon as light screen + reflect support and it makes setting up easier. Something that baits chansey/blissey could be good too, since lucario can set up on every one of them not carrying thunder wave.

I personally like using one of these two:

Chandelure (F) @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Infiltrator
EVs: 4 Def / 252 SAtk / 252 Spd
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Shadow Ball
- Fire Blast
- Energy Ball / Trick
- Memento

Latios (M) @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
EVs: 252 Spd / 252 SAtk / 4 HP
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Draco Meteor
- Psyshock
- Surf
- Memento

Essentially I take a Pokemon that is very threatening on its own and, when it can no longer clean house itself, I throw out Memento and gain a nearly guaranteed set-up with Mega Lucario.
Ghost is the most threatening STAB in the game now, so having a Scarfed Ghost that can attack through Subs is fantastic on its own, especially with Trevenant and Gliscor being all over the place. The Genesect resistance and spin-blocking capability is welcomed as well for Chandy. Oh and it also checks opposing Mega Lucario pretty well.
Latios does what it always does minus one move-slot. Latios is meant to be a temporary Pokemon anyway so the lack of Recover on a Life Orb set doesn't hurt it in the long run.

The strategy is super dirty when paired with a great hazard setter like Deoxys.

And what's even more dirty is that Defog and Rapid Spin both fail when you use Memento which gives Lucario an opportunity to set up to +2 on the defog and again to +4 as the -2/-2 opponent is forced to switch out. Either face a +2 Lucario with hazards up or a +4 Lucario with no hazards. A losing situation either way for your foe.

You either have to be trying to lose or Memento on a Defiant Bisharp to not win with that combination. Well that or run into a Scarf Landorus-T; it's a hilariously good check to all Mega Lucario so long as it doesn't switch-in on Ice Punch or Flash Cannon.

 

[Irysa]

I'm probably going to take some shit for suggesting this but Hawlucha with Sitrus Berry + Unburden can be a 100% counter to almost any Mega Lucario set (assuming no rocks and being at full life). WARNING A LOT OF DUMB CALCS INC.

0 Atk Hawlucha High Jump Kick vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega Lucario: 290-344 (103.2 - 122.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Nah hold on really. With the right EVs, Jolly Hawlucha /w sitrus (you unfortunately need jolly as adamant 252 speed doesnt cut it vs timid/jolly lucario) can actually take every single one of Lucario's attacks and a priority move, or a +2 priority move, and OHKO's with high jump kick. Even ice punch. If you want to prep for a modest or adamant lucario you need to sac even more attack evs to its hp but even a completely uninvested HJK OHKO's Mega Lucario so it will be fine (unless you miss)

252 Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Close Combat vs. 48 HP / 0 Def Hawlucha: 176-208 (56.9 - 67.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Bullet Punch vs. 48 HP / 0 Def Hawlucha: 118-140 (38.1 - 45.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

67.3 + 45.3 - 25 = 87.6

Add in the 25% from Sitrus and he'll always win. Hawlucha can win even without Sitrus here if the BP rolls are lucky but I prefer not to roll the dice. EVs are the leftovers from the minimum required to outspeed a Timid/Jolly 252 Lucario as a 208 Jolly Hawlucha.

+2 252 Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Bullet Punch vs. 48 HP / 0 Def Hawlucha: 236-278 (76.3 - 89.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

He can survive the +2 Bullet Punch.

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 270-318 (84.6 - 99.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Vacuum Wave vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 68-80 (21.3 - 25%) -- 0% chance to 4HKO

99.6 + 25 - 25 = 99.6

Minimum HP required to not die to special Lucario. Unless the game rounds differently than I understand, in which case its 92/96 HP Evs.

+2 252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Vacuum Wave vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 135-159 (42.3 - 49.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Takes the +2 special priority fine. (only problem here IMO is that you can actually NOT proc the sitrus which is somewhat detrimental)

252 Atk Mega Lucario Ice Punch vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Hawlucha: 220-260 (68.5 - 80.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Bullet Punch vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Hawlucha: 118-140 (36.7 - 43.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

80.9 + 43.6 - 25 = 99.5

Minimum to take an Ice Punch and survive Bullet Punch, unless my understanding of rounding is wrong in which case its 100.

For Adamant and Modest builds it looks a lot more grim unfortunately since you need to start throwing 200+ evs around.

252+ Atk Mega Lucario Ice Punch vs. 228 HP / 0 Def Hawlucha: 242-286 (68.3 - 80.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Adaptability Mega Lucario Bullet Punch vs. 228 HP / 0 Def Hawlucha: 130-154 (36.7 - 43.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

80.7 + 43.5 - 25 = 99.2

252+ SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 228 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 294-348 (83 - 98.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Vacuum Wave vs. 228 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 74-88 (20.9 - 24.8%) -- guaranteed 5HKO

98.3 + 24.8 - 25 = 98.1

Min to survive an Adamant Ice Punch + Bullet Punch. Also works for Modest Flash Cannon + Vaccum. You can go for minimum 220 on the latter or something. Adamant/Modest +2 Bullet/Vaccums don't matter and are fine at much lower values.

Nobody really runs attack boosting nature lucario's in my experience though, so you usually don't need to have THAT much invested. The only "problem" I can think of (besides Lucario just...switching out after doing a ton of damage, but they never do that :3) is if they actually run Flash Cannon AND Bullet Punch on a mixed modest set which is silly but has enough damage to get through even a 252 HP Hawlucha.

Main problem is he's not very good otherwise. I completely acknowledge this isn't really a particularly great set (hp invested Hawlucha doesn't hurt very much), but I figured I may as well post my calcs.

 

[PrincessDerpy]

Hawlucha is in trouble if he eats a Flash Cannon on the switch. 252HP no Sdef Hawlucha does not take that hit very well (75-88%) and the followup vacuum wave has a chance to KO if the flash cannon hits high. If you don't run that much health, then the 1-2 punch is completely foolproof.

Edit: 252HP/48sdef takes the flash cannon down to 69.4-82%, which makes the followup vacuum wave extremely unlikely to KO. That's a VERY specific set with just enough EVs all around to get the job done.

And sneaky pebbles will absolutely ruin trying to stop Luke with even this set. Sorry, I'm just not seeing it

 

[ThePinkReaper]

I made a team with StallTres on it

Moltres@Leftovers
Timid/Pressure
248Hp/240Spe/40Def
-Toxic
-Sub
-Roost
-Flamethrower

And it is an absolute monster of a Mega Luke counter. Stalltres had already been a great Lucario counter in gen 4 but it didnt really work because of stealth rocks. With Defog now being a thing Moltres is actually usable and it can basically switch into Mega Luke for free. +2 anything from Luke doesnt OHKO it and it OHKO's back with Flamethrower.

 

[PrincessDerpy]

The thing I don't like is it puts pressure on you to keep sneaky pebbles off the field. It's a nice straight switch in otherwise but pebbles will turn it into a protection war between getting the defog off and keeping Luke from getting +2 with pebbles still up.

 

[Irysa]

Hawlucha is in trouble if he eats a Flash Cannon on the switch. 252HP no Sdef Hawlucha does not take that hit very well (75-88%) and the followup vacuum wave has a chance to KO if the flash cannon hits high. If you don't run that much health, then the 1-2 punch is completely foolproof.

Edit: 252HP/48sdef takes the flash cannon down to 69.4-82%, which makes the followup vacuum wave extremely unlikely to KO. That's a VERY specific set with just enough EVs all around to get the job done.

And sneaky pebbles will absolutely ruin trying to stop Luke with even this set. Sorry, I'm just not seeing it

You missed the part when I said you run Sitrus Berry with Unburden so he gets 25% back. You need far less investment to survive anything other than Modest/Adamant Lucario combos with that (I listed like all relevant calcs) and frankly I don't run him as a sweeper anyway since he's more of a utility pokemon like Crobat who can hit decently hard and is fast.

252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Flash Cannon vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 270-318 (84.6 - 99.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Adaptability Mega Lucario Vacuum Wave vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 68-80 (21.3 - 25%) -- 0% chance to 4HKO

99.6 + 25 - 25 = 99.6

Minimum HP required to not die to timid Lucario. Unless the game rounds differently than I understand, in which case its 92/96 HP Evs. (if it's a modest lucario you need like 220 hp evs which is kinda OTT)

What I will say though is that the set is pretty bad overall and I'm not reccomending it or anything. It's just a bunch of spergy calcs that I ran and what I personally like killing Mega Lukes with since none of them ever expect a Sitrus Hawlucha.

SR ruins it for sure though.