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Makin' it Rain: UU Rain discussion

This thread is nearly reaching tl;dr status for anyone who hasn't followed the last 350 pages.

Anyway, here are some stats that I have dragged out of the January Shoddy server statistics:

Firstly, I will start out with the fact that Electrode is the typical lead with Rain Dance teams, and should sound alarm bells immediately. This should give you information regarding what you are facing, and that you might need to check something ASAP before the match gets out of your reach. Annoyingly, the top team mates for Electrode were not listed in the stats.

Kabutops is probably the first sweeper that comes to mind when thinking about RD teams. Interestingly, 87% of people are running Adamant nature, and only 40% are running max speed EVs; players are typically running the standard Smogon set, which I will get back to in a moment. Most players are also opting for a standard SD/Aqua Jet/Waterfall/Stone Edge movepool. Top five teammates for Kabutops were:

- Ludicolo
- Uxie
- Qwilfish
- Raikou
- Omastar

So why was I looking at these stats? Well, I have been working on a new Sunny Day concept, and I was looking for possible Rain Dance counters post-setup. One Pokemon that came to mind was Sceptile. An EV spread of 60 HP / 252 SpA / 192 Spe with a Scarf and Modest nature allows you to out pace 87% of Kabutops and not only OHKO them, but cleanly OHKO or 2HKO Kabutops' most common team mates barring Uxie with Leaf Storm, assuming offensive sets. Venusaur and Toxicroak were in the top ten teammates, and pose the biggest threat to the strategy. Even so, switching costs time in the rain for the Swift Swimmers, and gives you more wriggle room.

Surprisingly, only 17% of Ludicolo were running Swords Dance, which is by far its most threatening set IMO. I think Ludicolo is the hardest to take down given its excellent coverage with boosted STAB, a secondary STAB and Ice Punch. The hardest thing is learning the set. Weezing can neuter the physical set, but obviously needs to watch out for the special set. Uxie can check and lay down some Thunder Wave.

I had more to write, but I gotta get some sleep/cannot be bothered right now.
 
Shrang - you assume Kabutops has Swords Dance already for free, then attacked with the right move while you switch a "Kabutops" counter in. Shouldn't you assume the counter comes in on a Swords Dance (not all the time Kabutops can afford to SD up though)

Also, SR doesn't really cut it for Rain teams, especially early-game where Uxie gets shut down by Taunt by both Ambipom and Froslass.

So Slowbro comes in on SD (worst case scenario), paralyses Kabutops, and Surfs it to hell! Tangrowth comes in on SD, Power Whip/Energy Ball for the KO.... Hitmontop comes in on SD, Close Combat! And thus your counters remain.

Oh wait. Kabutops will get in one more Aqua Jet before death. Will it kill Slowbro/Tangrowth?

And End Fashion.. how do you know Electrode is the most common Rain Lead?what about ambipom?
 
Shrang - you assume Kabutops has Swords Dance already for free, then attacked with the right move while you switch a "Kabutops" counter in. Shouldn't you assume the counter comes in on a Swords Dance (not all the time Kabutops can afford to SD up though)
Click to expand...
This.

Hitmontop comes in on SD, Close Combat! And thus your counters remain.
Click to expand...
Not this.

And End Fashion.. how do you know Electrode is the most common Rain Lead?what about ambipom?
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Typical does not mean most common. If you see an Electrode, you can assume 2/3 of the time that it is running Rain Dance, as opposed to the 1/25 chance that Ambipom is going to set it up. What I was getting at was that Electrode coming out is usually a good predictor of things to come, not so much stating that Electrode is the be-all and end-all of leads. The thing is, looking at all the sweepers' teammates statistics, Electrode pops its head up nearly every time, and a lot more than Ambipom. Electrode is rarely used outside of the lead position.
 
An easy way to check for Rain Dance lead Ambipom is not so difficult. Ambipom will most likely Fake Out the first turn. Here you can see if it is carrying Life Orb. If Fake Out deals the same amount of damage than it would have but you don't see Life Orb damage it is probably Silk Scarf Ambipom is carrying. If Fake Out does less damage then it normally does you can almost be certain it is carrying Damp Rock (although Heat Rock could be possible too). You will notice the damage drop from Fake Out from experience.
 
End - so what you actually mean to say is that Rain Dance is typical on Electrode, not that Electrode is a typical Rain lead...

Also End I'm sorry but I do not understand your "Not this" argument. Please back it up.

Delko - yes that's one way to find out since most Ambipom does not Rain Dance/Taunt first turn... but Ambipom usually Taunts Froslass for example...

I'm eagerly waiting for the Feb Stats since it appears there has been a massive jump of Rain teams last month.. Maybe we'll see that physical Ludicolo is more common than special Ludicolo...
 
@Heysup -

#1. I'm not sure rain is broken. I've been on the fence a while now, oscillating bettween "rain is broken" and "I'm bad". You'll have realized this if you read my posts actually, so I'm forced to conclude that you haven't been reading my posts.
#2. 7 specific uncommon situations? Did you read what I posted? No? I didn't list situations. I listed reasons. You seriously seem to be the only person who feels rain without Damp Rock is the same as rain with it. PS: I think it's funny that one of my 7 specific uncommon situations is Substitute stalling out rain without Damp Rock, and here you are talking about how Rhyperior can sub up against Uxie.
#3. If you're so insistent on calling my seven "reasons" as seven "specific uncommon situations" then I'll also call your Uxie-switching-into-Swellow a specific uncommon situation. I'll also point out that it doesn't matter if Uxie's not at max health, and if he switches into SR. PS: If Uxie is already in and so is Swellow, Light Clay Uxie CAN set up both screens. All he has to do is set up Reflect first. Your missing this obvious move makes me think you haven't used DS (like, ever).
#4. So you posted 15 logs in which you won / lost at approximately the same rate with and without Damp Rock. So what? Other players have posted logs as well, and their win rates with and without Damp Rock are clearly different. Why don't you ask FlareBlitz if he won and lost at the same rate with and without Damp Rock? Or how about you look at the game I played with FlareBlitz, in which I would be in serious hot soup had he had Damp Rock?
#5. Who says Kyogre can't beat Quagsire and Parasect? Kyogre learns Ice Beam, and if Quagsire really is that much of a problem he can use HP Grass, too. A Kyogre in UU will plough through the entire metagame with obvious ease, and even if it didn't it'll set up eternal rain for the rain sweepers.

As for addapting to the metagame, I'm going to quote ToF here:

Twist of Fate said:
Until you can get Salamence to be banned because of Magnezone, I'm not buying this bullshit that Dugtrio will remove all of Cresselia's counters. Nope, doesn't happen as your theorymon indicates, and yeah, like Dugtrio's usage is that high anyway. If it does become a problem, I will Shed Shell everything in the same manner I did when Duggy was moved down because I ADAPT TO THE FUCKING METAGAME.
Click to expand...

Leftovers obviously helps Chansey and Registeel, yet if Dugtrio becomes a common enough threat and Shed Shell keeps them alive better, by all means do it. If Kabutops is a common enough threat that having Poliwrath helps you win more, do it! If you haven't attempted to counter it, you can't blame it for sweeping your team.

Anyway I think I'll stop posting in this thread, at least for a while. It's beginning to remind me why I stopped participating in balance debates in other games I play. You can't ever get anyone to agree on balance, and when they do agree on it it's a sign that that something is hideously overpowered.
 
YaM said:
Also End I'm sorry but I do not understand your "Not this" argument. Please back it up.
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How does Hitmontop come in on a Swords Dance, and OHKO with Close Combat on the next turn? +1 (assuming Intimidate) Waterfall in the rain with Life Orb still easily OHKOs.
 
Banedon said:
@Heysup -
#1. I'm not sure rain is broken. I've been on the fence a while now, oscillating bettween "rain is broken" and "I'm bad". You'll have realized this if you read my posts actually, so I'm forced to conclude that you haven't been reading my posts.
Click to expand...

This justifies ignoring Swift Swim on Kabutops as a quality? Not at all.
Banedon said:
#2. 7 specific uncommon situations? Did you read what I posted? No? I didn't list situations. I listed reasons. You seriously seem to be the only person who feels rain without Damp Rock is the same as rain with it. PS: I think it's funny that one of my 7 specific uncommon situations is Substitute stalling out rain without Damp Rock, and here you are talking about how Rhyperior can sub up against Uxie.
Click to expand...

Yes, I clearly did. You started all of your statements with if (or included it in some way). This means that your 7 "reasons" don't always apply, and in fact rarely (if ever) overlap.

Also, (since I don't feel like accusing you of not reading) I would like to point out that I never said Damp Rock is the same as rain without it. I said Leftovers just about compensates for Damp Rocks (and Light Clay's) extra turns because you get much more longevity with your set up Pokemon.
Banedon said:
#3. If you're so insistent on calling my seven "reasons" as seven "specific uncommon situations" then I'll also call your Uxie-switching-into-Swellow a specific uncommon situation. I'll also point out that it doesn't matter if Uxie's not at max health, and if he switches into SR. PS: If Uxie is already in and so is Swellow, Light Clay Uxie CAN set up both screens. All he has to do is set up Reflect first. Your missing this obvious move makes me think you haven't used DS (like, ever).
Click to expand...

You've misread this like four times, so let me try again. Here is what happens:

Situation 1:
Uxie comes in and Swellow comes in.
Swellow uses Facade. Uxie uses Reflect.
Swellow uses U-turn (which does lol damage)as Uxie uses Light Screen, or Uxie switches out (a much better move especially without Leftovers)
(8 turns pass)
Uxie comes in and Swellow comes in.
Swellow uses Facade. Uxie Faints.

There is also this situation:

Swellow comes in on (insert Pokemon who loses to Swellow)
Uxie switches in. Swellow uses Facade.
Swellow uses Facade. Uxie faints.

This is a stupid move for the DS player obviously, but think about it: This would otherwise allow the player to switch into Swellow AND set up if he carried Leftovers.

You can go ahead and call my example "unlikely", but it doesn't really matter since it is just an example. Do I feel like grabbing 6 more just to "match" your 7 "reasons"? Not really. All I really need are a couple examples where Leftovers are better to prove that Light Clay isn't that much better. If you really want me to find more examples I will, but you have to ask nicely.
Banedon said:
#4. So you posted 15 logs in which you won / lost at approximately the same rate with and without Damp Rock. So what? Other players have posted logs as well, and their win rates with and without Damp Rock are clearly different. Why don't you ask FlareBlitz if he won and lost at the same rate with and without Damp Rock? Or how about you look at the game I played with FlareBlitz, in which I would be in serious hot soup had he had Damp Rock?
Click to expand...

All of the other logs were shown to be fairly invalid (not even by me) as they were either cherry picked, biased (like the ones between Smurf and FB), and or only 1-3 matches at a time. That is why, until I see someone else post an equal amount of logs that aren't cherry picked that say otherwise, you are just going to be arguing with evidence, which is a bad idea.
Banedon said:
#5. Who says Kyogre can't beat Quagsire and Parasect? Kyogre learns Ice Beam, and if Quagsire really is that much of a problem he can use HP Grass, too. A Kyogre in UU will plough through the entire metagame with obvious ease, and even if it didn't it'll set up eternal rain for the rain sweepers.
Click to expand...
You missed the point.

First of all, Kabutops learns Return which he can OHKO all of those Pokemon with. But that's simply overspecializing for counters that aren't remotely threatening and making Kabutops worse overall. Kyogre doesn't have room for HP Grass, similarly.

Second, the point of this Kyogre analogy was simply to prove that your "list of counters" means absolutely nothing when deciding whether a Pokemon is BL or not because of the Pokemon you listed. This is exactly what it did.
Banedon said:
Leftovers obviously helps Chansey and Registeel, yet if Dugtrio becomes a common enough threat and Shed Shell keeps them alive better, by all means do it. If Kabutops is a common enough threat that having Poliwrath helps you win more, do it! If you haven't attempted to counter it, you can't blame it for sweeping your team.
Click to expand...

So does this mean that Kyogre....oh wait I think i said this already...

You can finish off that statement for me, it's blatantly obvious that your argument is still countered by the Kyogre argument.
 
heysup said:
Banedon, if you lost because you let Kabutops set up, is that because Rain is broken or because you weren't mentally prepared for Rain? Common sense only dictates that you would not try to set up screens against an SDer that would likely sweep your team since it can set up Swords Dances and basically ignore your screens after +4.
Click to expand...

Actually, if you Reflect and then switch, the sweeper effectively gets x1.5, while if you just switch the sweeper gets x2.
 
End Fashion said:
How does Hitmontop come in on a Swords Dance, and OHKO with Close Combat on the next turn? +1 (assuming Intimidate) Waterfall in the rain with Life Orb still easily OHKOs.
Click to expand...

Don't the calcs say that that only occurs when Stealth Rock is on the field?

Anyway I just wanted to throw this question out: How often can your Rain team/Rain teams you faced lay down SR and/or Spikes... This wastes momentum and gives the opponent to set up (Rock Polish Aggron? SubCM Raikou? SD Absol? NP Toxicroak? Dual Screens?) Also, leading with Uxie/Registeel/(SRer/Spiker) results in you getting Taunted or Tricked, losing your Damp Rock in the process. Thus SR is almost always set up only in the mid-game if possible. Note by switching in, setting SR, setting up Rain, and switching out, that is a total of four "free" turns for the opponent.

Flare I would like to know how your Qwilfish lead gets Spikes down when Ambipom and Froslass would just Taunt you...
 
He was just making a comparison; you don't need to complain about a comparison by making some geometric-proof-like argument that just complicates things lol. It was a bit of a hyperbole (especially the bit about Kyogre being dropped), but there's no need to nitpick at those types of things in a thread like this, especially since it will get you nowhere in terms of the center of the problem.
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Very well, i just felt that he wasnt using it as a hyperbole any more and was using it as a serious point.
Im sorry but in this forum ive found that everything i say i have to back up and reinforce to the point of becoming geometric just to be taken seriously. You may not have that problem as you have established yourself. Believe me when i first finished that post it was only one small paragraph long.
Very well, you have convinced me i am wrong. And because my post does nothing to get to the "center of the problem" i shall remove it so as not to get in the way (that and for shame of nitpicking)

EDIT: i shall also delete this post in time for similar reasons.
 
Flare I would like to know how your Qwilfish lead gets Spikes down when Ambipom and Froslass would just Taunt you...
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When it's raining, Qwilfish is faster than everything and can come in on most walls to start setting up, then explode afterward. This paves the way for Kabutops and Ludicolo to start sweeping while not wasting a turn or any HP having to switch them in.

Though it's not a safe assumption Spikes will be down in every single match or that it'd even matter for offensive teams. I really wish people would stop using that as a crutch for their arguments.
 
SJ you didn't answer his question. He was specifically asking about Flare's team which leads with Qwilfish. I'd like to ask that same question myself, since fast taunters are all the craze in the UU lead spot.
 
I just kill them while they Taunt me, although Froslass is annoying because the whore might Dbond me.
 
You could run Waterfall/Aqua Jet/Spikes/Explosion to circumvent that. It still has plenty of opportunity to get Spikes up without giving Froslass a chance to do anything besides Taunt and die.
 
YaM said:
Don't the calcs say that that only occurs when Stealth Rock is on the field?
Click to expand...
In the rain; +1 Waterfall: 541 Atk vs 226 Def & 304 HP (80 Base Power): 399 - 471 (131.25% - 154.93%)

Without the rain: 541 Atk vs 226 Def & 304 HP (80 Base Power): 267 - 315 (87.83% - 103.62%)

Aqua Tail does like 99% damage minimum outside of the rain. This is all assuming that no one is using defensive EVs, which would be really rare.
 
Damage Calculations

Rain is always up. Kabutops is carrying Life Orb, max Attack, and Adamant. (No defensive EVs)

vs Bold 252HP/Def Slowbro
+2 Stone Edge 73.1% - 86.3%
Slowbro Surf vs Kabutops 78.5% - 93.1%

vs Bold 252HP/Def Tangrowth
+2 Stone Edge 65.3% - 77.2%
Tangrowth Power Whip vs Kabutops 100%

vs Bold 252HP/Def Blastoise
+2 Stone Edge 84.5% - 99.7%
Blastoise Surf vs Kabutops 63.8% - 75.6%

vs Bold 252HP/Def Milotic
+2 Stone Edge 90.9% - 107.4%
Milotic Surf vs Kabutops 73.5% - 87.1%

vs Impish 252HP/Def Leafeon
+2 Stone Edge 76.3% - 90.1%
Leafeon Leaf Blade vs Kabutops 100%

vs 252HP Technitop
Unboosted Waterfall or +2 Aqua Jet 87.2% - 103% (Technitop switches into a Waterfall, or into a Swords Dance and takes an Aqua Jet to the face)
+2 Waterfall 174.7% - 205.6%
Technitop Mach Punch (if it survives the hit. Don't Fake Out, you'll just get Aqua Jetted) 77.4% - 91%

vs Impish 252HP/Def Hitmontop with Intimidate
+1 Waterfall 93.8% - 110.5%
Hitmontop Close Combat 84.6% - 101.1%

vs Toxicroak
+2 Stone Edge 98.4% - 115.9%
NP Toxicroak Vacuum Wave 67.4% - 80.3%

vs 252HP Poliwrath
+2 Stone Edge 57.8% - 68% (Poliwrath then sets up a Sub, and Focus Punches the next turn)
Poliwrath Focus Punch 139.8% - 164.2%

vs Impish 252HP/Def Quagsire
+2 Stone Edge 47.5% - 56.1% (Recover + Leftovers Stalling)
Quagsire Earthquake 65.2% - 77.4%
 
My calculations are when there is no Rain, and Kabutops is Jolly, just to clarify. Oh, and I screwed up with the Hitmontop calc, you can't OHKO with SR down if it's not raining (I forgot that Hitmontop resists SR).
 
Ugh a RD team won the tour, and I've found that a Tangrowth + Chansey combination does really well against rain you just need smoething to take care of Qwilfish
 
In round three my opponent was a Rain Dance team too. And as you could imagine, I got raped, I lost 4-0 (although I won round 1 win 6-0 and round 2 with 5-0 against very good players). It's just that Rain teams are so hard to counter, I mean what can switch in on Kabutops that going for the Sword Dance? My best bet was Milotic but it got OHKO by a +2 Stone Edge and after that the massacre began :-(

You don't have to have any experience to use a Rain team as the strategy is just as simple as possible. And that's what makes me mad. On the ladder as well. If you have a reasonable CRE of let's say 1500 and you lose to a guy with no strategy or experience at all who just copied a Rain team from the RMT forums you loose about 45 point of your CRE which just isn't fair! The great difference between OU and UU is that there are a lot of auto weather starters in OU (Tyranitar, Hippowdon) so facing a Rain Dance team in OU isn't that problematic but in UU there only is Hippopotas and Snover, both who aren't very common, so Rain teams can just sweep 90% of the players there. That's just plain sad.
 
All I can say is: If you didn't overprepare for Rain / Cress / P-Z for the tour, can you really expect to blame anyone/thing but yourself for not preparing for the most obvious Pokemon/strategies that will be present? Especially when considering the tour contains a bunch of "UU noobs" who don't play UU (but are still great battlers obviously) and will clearly use a team at least one of these acclaimed Pokemon on it, most likely Rain because of its "skillessness".
 
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