Metagame Metagame Discussion Thread v2

[INSANE CARZY GUY]

How viable is trick specs right now, I'm really debating on if I rather slap toxic/taunt/roost on a frail specs users

Only key targets that come to mind would be gliscor(pre-poison)/Chansey

Like I rather hit a darco meator/flamethrower vs most other stuff that I might wanna cripple anyhow

RIP shednija stall :;( I literally can't find any way to make it work anymore I was hovering in 25-50 ranking for half a month till the duggy ban idk if it's me coasting, even tho not every match I needed duggy(in that case I guess he did remove the threats by teambuilding) or if there is just a Sucking hole in stall because now HO can really lazily pick it apart, been seeing a lot more stuff like lead with something that can do 40% to mega sableye then use the Z-move/boost mix up

Which is a pretty insane read to make when You have to decide how to control the starting pace

 

[6ft Torbjorn]

Given how it'll be coming to OU in about a week or so - I think it'll be a good time to review Mega Mawile, and why I think it'll be staying in OU:

Mawile-Mega @ Mawilite
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 240 HP / 252 Atk / 16 SpD
Adamant Nature
- Iron Head
- Play Rough
- Sucker Punch
- Swords Dance

I presume this was the B&B set back in XY? Something like this, anyway.

Without further ado, here are the reason I think that Mega Mawile will be a not-quite-top-tier but welcome addition to OU in S&M:

1) The Sucker Punch nerf, and Tapu Lele:

Back in XY, I heard that SP was mostly what pushed Mega Mawile over the edge (as well as it's 210 Attack through Huge Power), for some of the things it could kill without challenge after a +2 boost:

(XY):

• +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Garchomp: 342-403 (95.7 - 112.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
• +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Greninja: 228-269 (79.7 - 94%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
  
• +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 168 HP / 0 Def Magnezone: 292-344 (90.4 - 106.5%) -- 75% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

However - I feel as though these things this gen will be less of the case, not just because of the BP nerf (80>70), but after the universal nerf to priority this generation, see Queenly Magesty/Dazzling; Psychic Terrain; the death of Bird Spam after the nerf to Gale Wings; and (as I said) Tapu Lele (Psychic Surge). Firstly, some new calcs:

(S&M):

• +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Garchomp: 300-353 (84 - 98.8%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
  
• +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Greninja: 198-234 (69.4 - 82.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
  
• +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 128 HP / 0 Def Magnezone: 255-301 (81.4 - 96.1%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

That's still a lot of damage - I'm not denying it. However, keep in mind two things: A) the drops in % chance to OHKO, and B) this was all after a +2, meaning that without it, Mega Mawile get's fairly easily countered by good Steels like Heatran and Ferrothorn (the latter may get sniped by the off Fire Fang, but by then you know that it gets walled by most Fire types) - alongside being forced out of it's +2 Attack and losing momentum. This goes without mentioning how slow MM is, and without it's priority gets whittled down a little too easily to be considered unhealthy for the tier, alongside getting chuncked off by plenty of good Ground Types such as Landorus-T; Diggersby and Garchomp (and I know Ice Punch is a thing, but a backup Steel doesn't sound like a symptom of Meta centralization to me tbh if the case were to arise).

And even THESE calcs end up down the drain when we bring Tapu Lele into the fray - a mon whose presence denies priority (as if it's MU with Mega Scizor wasn't enough indication), leading to Mega Mawiles' central flaws to stick out - mainly it's Speed that I touched on earlier, and it's mehish Sp.Def and HP. No, i'm not saying Lele can beat MM 1v1, but I do think Psychic Terrain can find support in key situations, and worsening Megawiles matchups under it. I don't think I really need to go too deep into this... however...

2) Z-moves, the 'shieldstun patch' change to Megas (to those that play Sm4sh, I think you'll get why I called it that) and Mega Mawile's place in the power creep:

Power creeps are a general phenomena that each metagame goes through. And with MM being sin binned for the whole of ORAS (the generation that bought us Mega Metagross; Mega Slowbro; Mega Sableye and others); as well as being forced to sit out the first 4 months of S&M, I would say that Mega Mawile's 210 Attack and other things related to it, while still jarring, is far more in line with what we consider sensible in today's metagame (it's one of the reasons I thought Lunala could be unbanned at some point, but we don't speak of that here...). Options such as Xurkitree with it's 173 base Sp.Atk, and LO Kartana (which equates to... what, 240+ attack?) are two extremely powerful, yet nowhere NEAR top tier examples I can think of off the top of my head that can justify Mega Mawile's place here. Hell, Beast Boost could almost do the talking for me... but I digress.

With it's status as Mega Evolution, Mega Mawile is also unable to make use of the Z-moves present in S&M - another symptom of the power creep in Sun & Moon. What's that? Mega Mawile could punch holes in things? Well so can things like Hoopa-U, Manaphy and Grachomp with Z-crystals corresponding their STAB! Not to mention things like 'MagDoom' Grassium Z Heatran and the utility certain Z-status can bring about (*ahem* Z-Conversion Prygon-Z *ahem*). The universal change to Mega Evolution's has also kind of left Mega Mawile in the dust, as while it did not get touched from said change - the fact that other Megas such as Mega Beedrill (also coming in the same week); Mega Metagross; Mega Pinsir and Mega Alakazam got sweeping buffs brings Mega Mawile down in the grand scheme of things. Considering Megawile will likely have competition from the following, and others, on a team for this spot - that's saying a LOT.

Conclusion:
I'm not trying to say 'Mega Mawile sucks, do not use' when making this post... but I am trying to say that it isn't quite the overwhelming monster it was back in XY, and I believe it is far more welcome in S&M's metagame after making the comparison. The effects it will have on teams will not be half as unbearable, and I think it will definitely spice things up a bit.

Welcome back, Mega Mawile - I think we've all missed you!

 

[Lady Alex]

Welcome back, Mega Mawile - I think we've all missed you!

Speak for yourself.

 

[6ft Torbjorn]

Speak for yourself.

Hey, I never said there weren't going to be exceptions lmao.

 

[TURBODERP]

A 4 Attacks, or SD+3 Attacks (Iron Head slotted out for Fire Fang IMO), or the SubPunch set still all do a ton of work.

It may not end up being busted....but Mawile will likely be top tier, again.

 

[Leo]

I would definitely drop Iron Head for a coverage move seeing as it doesn't hit pretty much anything that Play Rough hits already and Fire Fang should be way more useful with the amount of bulky Steels running around. Knock is a decent option as a nice utility move and neutral coverage hitting some annoying mons such as Toxapex, but SD and Sucker are still mandatory imo.

 

[ian smart]

There is no way this thing won't be suspected shortly after release. Tell me one thing that counters it that isn't blown back by sub punch. This thing hits incredibly hard, and with a pseudo 250+ attack, it won't take long for people to realize that the coverage, bulk, and raw power of this poke is too much for OU. I'd love for it to stay, but it seems really unlikely.

 

[6ft Torbjorn]

What were the functions of SubPunch again? Besides, I doubt it's actually that good tbh considering the phasers available in the tier (Skarm/Bulu/whatever makes use of Roar). If it's purely just for beating counters, then consider how apparently Lando-I had a set where it used Smack Down/EQ to beat SpDef Celesteela... doubt it was useful for much else.

EDIT: Is SubPunch the same as Sub 3 attacks? Or are they two different things?

 

[Zebstrika]

SubPunch Mawile is supposed to Sub on a forced switch, which it probably can still do fairly easily with its good typing, then Focus Punch blasts some of its usual checks like Heatran and Ferrothorn. Even vs a neutral typing Focus Punch hits harder than Play Rough. Substitute also forces the opponent to attack to break it, making Sucker Punch a safer move as well.

 

[6ft Torbjorn]

SubPunch Mawile is supposed to Sub on a forced switch, which it probably can still do fairly easily with its good typing, then Focus Punch blasts some of its usual checks like Heatran and Ferrothorn. Even vs a neutral typing Focus Punch hits harder than Play Rough. Substitute also forces the opponent to attack to break it, making Sucker Punch a safer move as well.

I understand. Then again in a generation where we have Tapu Lele running around, I don't think it'll be as powerful (denying priority and all, as I said). Also by the sounds of things - SubPunch loses to many different phasers.

Here's another question: why has Substitute in general not been suspected?

 

[Siggu]

I understand. Then again in a generation where we have Tapu Lele running around, I don't think it'll be as powerful (denying priority and all, as I said). Also by the sounds of things - SubPunch loses to many different phasers.

Here's another question: why has Substitute in general not been suspected?

I don't really see Tapu Lele as much of a problem for Mawile since Sucker Punch already had enough problems in XY OU - namely the fact it can be played around.

If anything, I think defensive Pokemon such as Celesteela are going to be more annoying for Mawile (can 2HKO with Flamethrower if Mawile does not invest in special defenses while Mawile cannot KO in less hits) than Tapu Lele.

It seems it will have some 4MSS this time (unlike in XY where it could pick two of its moveslots as it pleased)

 

[6ft Torbjorn]

If anything, I think defensive Pokemon such as Celesteela are going to be more annoying for Mawile (can 2HKO with Flamethrower if Mawile does not invest in special defenses while Mawile cannot KO in less hits) than Tapu Lele.

252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Fire Fang vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Celesteela: 190-224 (47.7 - 56.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery

4 SpA Celesteela Flamethrower vs. 240 HP / 16 SpD Mawile-Mega: 142-168 (47.1 - 55.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Depends whose in and when. Doesn't look like one can switch into the other if this is anything to go by...

 

[Firebird101]

Mawile is one of those pokemon who can choose it's checks and as far as I know there are no counters to it (beside Arcanine), at least in theory. Also, the only moves that are mandatory on it are Play Rough and Sucker Punch. I remember those moves were on every Mawile in XY and it's all it needs to pose as a legit threat, everything else can be decided what else Mawile should threaten. Swords Dance, Substitute, Fire Fang, Focus Punch, Knock Off, Thunder Punch were all legit options on it. It has more attacks but I think those are the ones you should always keep in the back of your mind when facing it.

And I think it'll be worse for the tier if it does not end up being broken since the arguably the biggest problem with ORAS were how many big threats you had to consider when teambuilding and Mawile will also push for the meta to be more like that. Sure I miss using powerhouses like Lopunny, Diancie and Medicham but I do not miss having to prepare for them while teambuilding.

 

[OverlordDerp]

There's also a new nuance of the ladder that might put M-Mawile over the top again - much better Trick Room setters in Magearna and Mimikyu. Trick Room Magearna is already a stellar standalone set, so having just one other setter (Cresselia to Cofag and anything in between) + some description of a M-Mawile core, and Sucker Punch won't matter when you're using the single highest raw Attack stat in the game without consequence for a couple turns.

 

[Sun King]

Grab your Toxapexes everyone.

 

[6ft Torbjorn]

There's also a new nuance of the ladder that might put M-Mawile over the top again - much better Trick Room setters in Magearna and Mimikyu. Trick Room Magearna is already a stellar standalone set, so having just one other setter (Cresselia to Cofag and anything in between) + some description of a M-Mawile core, and Sucker Punch won't matter when you're using the single highest raw Attack stat in the game without consequence for a couple turns.

Apart from TR teams are generally kind of gimmicky and self-restrictive in teambuilding (the latter, see weather). I largely doubt that experienced players aren't going to see the lack on natural speed in a team and draw the conclusion that you're using Trick Room via the fact. That, and there's a reason I keep bringing up Lele, because inherently slower teams are going to get slaughtered by faster ones without the access to priority.

Grab your Toxapexes everyone.

Hey, maybe Mega Mawile might make Stall think twice about certian things (e.g: Mega Evolving Sab turn 1 as they might want to burn Mawile). I mean maybe Mega Mawile could smuggle SR onto it's set and beat stall that way.

Also we don't know the result of the Duggy suspect yet - that could help us out against Megawile if it comes out alive.

 

[Martin]

As much as it is blatantly obvious to me that literally nothing has changed to make this thing any less broken than it was last gen, this speculation about whether new Pokemon will make it non-busted is all complete theorymon and, as such, is completely pointless at this stage.

Also, while super nitpicky and not that concequential in the great scheme of things, the mention in your post about "Mawile's 210 Attack" is just outright false. Mega Mawile's effective base Attack stat is way higher than base 210; Huge Power doubles the raw stat: not the base stat. As such, assuming max atk+adamant, this thing has an effective attack stat of greater than 255 (see screenshots below for demonstration)

Hide

339×2=678
678>669
effective base>255

 

[6ft Torbjorn]

Also, while super nitpicky and not that concequential in the great scheme of things, the mention in your post about "Mawile's 210 Attack" is just outright false. Mega Mawile's effective base Attack stat is way higher than base 210; Huge Power doubles the raw stat: not the base stat. As such, assuming max atk+adamant, this thing has an effective attack stat of greater than 255 (see screenshots below for demonstration)

Hide

View attachment 78195View attachment 78194
339×2=678
678>669
effective base>255

I understand. It was just quickly off the top of my head as I was typing it.

 

[Sun King]

Tbh, I think Mawile would be pretty unhealthy for the meta. Fairy/Steel is rad typing, and that power is absurd. I think it would be cool for us to adopt a UU-style tiering policy with Mawile and work at trimming away some of the other undesirable elements of the meta before we test it out. I really think OU would be pretty chaotic with another monstrous powerhouse.

 

[6ft Torbjorn]

Tbh, I think Mawile would be pretty unhealthy for the meta. Fairy/Steel is rad typing, and that power is absurd. I think it would be cool for us to adopt a UU-style tiering policy with Mawile and work at trimming away some of the other undesirable elements of the meta before we test it out. I really think OU would be pretty chaotic with another monstrous powerhouse.

So you're suggesting things a bit like Aegi without KS or something (or if Shedninja got a HA, banning Wonder Guard)? I really do think it's a welcome change to make judgement calls like that, as our current tiering system is kinda lazy IMO. After the likes of the Shadow Tag suspect (a UNIVERSAL thing), I'm surprised we haven't adopted something of the sort.

Unpopular Opinion: I don't think Aegi was banworthy (definately not quickban worthy), and that KS was the problem.

 

[ian smart]

Grab your Toxapexes everyone.

Tox can't do shit to mawile. It's substitute fodder cause scald doesn't break sub.

 

[Siggu]

Tox can't do shit to mawile. It's substitute fodder cause scald doesn't break sub.

And in the worst possible case that it does not have Substitute and Swords Dance instead, Mawile 2HKOes with Play Rough - Toxapex can only hope for a burn.

+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 232+ Def Toxapex: 150-177 (49.3 - 58.2%) -- 61.3% chance to 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery

 

[Sergeant Spooky]

And in the worst possible case that it does not have Substitute and Swords Dance instead, Mawile 2HKOes with Play Rough - Toxapex can only hope for a burn.

+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 232+ Def Toxapex: 150-177 (49.3 - 58.2%) -- 61.3% chance to 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery

Tox can still Haze stall it and eventually Play Rough will miss or run out of PP. If Mawile doesn't have Knock Off it's a solid counter

 

[SketchUp]

Toxapex runs Haze and Sub + SD MMawile is a pretty underwhelming set. Toxapex is definitely the closest thing to a counter if you don't want to run something gimmicky like Lefties Arcanine

 

[pika pal]

So you're suggesting things a bit like Aegi without KS or something (or if Shedninja got a HA, banning Wonder Guard)? I really do think it's a welcome change to make judgement calls like that, as our current tiering system is kinda lazy IMO. After the likes of the Shadow Tag suspect (a UNIVERSAL thing), I'm surprised we haven't adopted something of the sort.

Unpopular Opinion: I don't think Aegi was banworthy (definately not quickban worthy), and that KS was the problem.

The UU style is to kick POTENTIALLY problematic elements out and then suspect to see if they should come back in, rather than the policy we've used where most things (bar the really stupid ones) are let in and then suspected as problems arise, not the style of suspecting more specific elements persay.

Also, Aegislash still exerts a lot of pressure beyond the King's Shield games, even if that was a significant factor. Sub-Toxic could adapt, and all out attacker sets didn't run the move anyway. Besides that, nothing else of note runs King's Shield, so there's no real reason to suspect it separately from Aegislash.