DEVERENDING STORY - A REAL FANTASY BASEBALL RMT
INTRODUCTION
Unlike ButteredToast, I have won a Smogon Baseball League ‘ship. In a league as competitive as this, I’m glad for that. Unfortunately, having stacked keepers as a foundation with the likes of Donaldson, JD Martinez, Votto, Springer, etc. only yielded me that one championship in that three year window.
This year, I’m forced to go about things a little differently. All the aforementioned guys are returning to the pool. My foundation has crumbled and I must start anew. Having this in mind, I tried to find the balance between winning the championship in my final year of the window last year, while being young enough as to have a few gems to keep on good value for the future. Some of that worked out, and yielded me guys like Cody Bellinger and James Paxton. Some of it worked out - until it didn’t - with Sano looking like a cornerstone for me, then getting hit with assault allegations and reporting to spring training this year looking like Pablo Sandoval.
I like to call my approach this year a reload, and not a rebuild. I think my roster heading into this year is a lot more competitive (and contains oodles more upside) than some of the starting rosters I’ve seen in the past in this league. Will it be competitive enough to keep me a contender just like years past? Debatable, but my cheaper footprint will allow me to do work in the draft, and my in-season management will always make me competitive.
2018 brings a new approach for me, not just in eligible keepers, but in roster composition as well. So, gone are the days of me loading up on homers and throwing shit at the wall with pitching and hoping it will stick. Everyone hits homers now. Shit, Scooter Gennett hit 27 of them last year (really?). It’s time for me to build a more balanced roster, and I have the keepers to do so.
TEAM AT A GLANCE
IN-DEPTH
Michael Nelson Trout (OF)
$63 Cost ($63 Last / $48 Projected)
.309 AVG / 111 R / 38 HR / 106 RBI / 20 SB
I was so excited so finally be able to pry away the best player in the game last year from my biggest fantasy rival, giving up a huge haul in the process. Then Trout got injured, which was kind of a microcosm of last season for me.
This year, I’m at a crossroads. Trout is so fucking expensive to keep, but so, so worth it - especially in my case. I need him in order to be competitive in a reloading year. Fuck it, he’s mine. Pepper your anuses folks.
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF)
$12 Cost ($1 Last / $23 Projected)
.261 AVG / 91 R / 37 HR / 105 RBI / 12 SB
While Judge was crushing shit in the AL, Belly Baseball was doing much of the same over in the NL. And much like Judge, Bellinger impressed me with his ability to adjust to what pitchers were trying to do to him in-season. Then of course, aside from the NLCS, he had an awful postseason the likes of A-Rod circa… well, multiple years. To some, that leads credence to the dreaded sophomore slump. For me, while I’d be out on him in redraft leagues, I’ll be glad to take him at $12 and be happy with even just 30 jacks and a .250 average, with the usual smattering of steals. I think, ultimately, however, he’ll be fine, and he’s a cornerstone for me these next few seasons.
Ronald Acuña (OF)
$1 Cost ($1 Last / $2 Projected)
.269 AVG / 73 R / 21 HR / 73 RBI / 33 SB
This is where shit starts to get interesting keeper-wise. I’m choosing a 20-year old who has never recorded an official MLB at-bat as a keeper. That’s unprecedented for me. Yet this guy has dominated every level he’s been at. And when the Braves traded Kemp last December, everyone knew it was time. The Braves may send him down initially to gain another year of control, but he’ll be up soon after just like Kris Bryant was. He’s registered comparisons to Mike Trout. So, on my team I have Trout, and then the next Trout. Not bad.
While the lofty ZiPS projections you see above aren’t likely to happen this season, I expect Acuña to be fucking shit up as early as September of this year and certainly before his time is up on my team.
By the way, dude is going as early as the 8th round in redrafts (on other sites). Some adjustment will be made to his rankings on Yahoo between now and opening day. If I can keep him for even just a few dollars, I’m all in.
Ozzie Albies (2B)
$1 Cost ($1 Last / $2 Projected)
.272 AVG/ 72 R / 12 HR / 58 RBI / 21 SB
Holy fuckaroonie, this ain’t a Yankees rebuild, this is a fucking Braves rebuild. It’s no secret the Braves have a shit ton of young talent, and just like Acuña, Albies costs me not a damn thing to take a chance on. Ironically, just a month ago, Albies really wasn’t on my radar as a keeper. After doing a little more research, and seeing how high the fantasy community in general is on him (I mean ffs, take a look at his Fangraphs fans projections), I think the tools and ability are legit, and he can surprise people with his offensive capability much like Lindor did.
*I reserve the right to change this selection when his ADP/ranking, and therefore auction value, inevitably skyrockets on Yahoo. Current ADP: 199. LOL
James Paxton (SP)
$7 ($4 Last / $14 Projected)
12-7 / 3.11 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / 181 K
If you’ve ever watched this dude pitch, you know he has Cy Young stuff. Unfortunately it’s hard to see him pitch because a) it’s fucking Seattle and b) he spends half his time on the DL it seems like. He’ll probably be frustrating to own again this year, but he’s a borderline SP1 when he’s taking starts for me. And nowadays, even if a pitcher gives you just 180 innings, it’s a success. By and large the “workhorse” doesn’t exist anymore, with few exceptions.
Luis Castillo (SP)
$4 ($1 Last / $7 Projected)
10-8 / 3.80 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / 146 K
I liked this kid last season, leading me to pick him up as a possible late-season stash for the future everywhere, but the more I see of him, the stronger I believe his ceiling is ace-level, and the stronger I feel the chances of him hitting that ceiling are. I watch him pitch and I see a lot of Carlos Martinez in him, as a Cards fan. Take one look at his start at a non-humidor Chase Field above and you can see why. He doesn’t just have a big fastball, he has two other pitches that I think he’ll be able to command consistently sooner than later.
This is pretty uncharacteristic of me to be keeping two pitchers, let alone two unprovens. But I feel confident enough in both Paxton and Castillo that I feel like I don’t have to be paying the usual Smogon premium on pitching come draft day.
So, there it is. Some of you may be surprised I didn’t keep Devers. Actually, he’s #7 if there were seven keepers, but there aren’t. Looking at his peripherals, there are quite a few things not to like, and I’m kind of skeptical about his ceiling long-term. But remember nerds, this isn’t a rebuild, this is a reload. I’ll be up there in the standings as I am every year. And with a little luck, I’ll hit paydirt with a few of these youngin’s and be back to terrorizing the league.