MLB Discussion Thread

[LzrGunPewPew]

The problem is panda is just... not a very good player... over the last three years fangraphs has him 17th in the majors among third basemen in war, and most of the players behind him have been unable to hold down a starting job for that entire period. Headley is a much better player who i doubt will be signed for any more than they got panda for. Although I do have some doubts about the wisdom of signing hanley and a 3b (because im dubious about hanley's defense at short going forward if trading bogaerts), that's not the biggest problem, the biggest problem is panda being ridiculously overpaid.


Also in terms of filling donaldson's spot I've seen some suggestions the a's have been trying to sign headley and use lawrie to patch their gaping hole at second base, although who knows how much these rumors stem from "it makes sense" versus actually coming from anything real.

Heard the Headley/A's rumours, though Panda's contract drives up his price a bit. Considering they are weak at 2B, it wouldn't be a bad deal. Would also work to shut down the thoughts that the A's are in rebuilding mode after trading Donaldson. As for Panda, you can dreamcast his numbers playing in Fenway but then the fact that he's had a bunch of somewhat concerning injuries since 2008 (Surgery on both wrists, left foot problem, left thigh strain) pop up. Also, his offensive numbers, notably BABIP and wRC+, have dropped every year since coming to the league in 2008. His BABIP from 2008-11 (1,869 plate appearances) was .323, and dropped to .301 (1,664 PA) from 2011-14. As for wRC+, these are his numbers since his first full season in 2009: 146, 96, 149, 118, 116, 111. The fact that it's been dropping in every season since 2011 is worrying, but more worrying is his split vs. LHP: .199/.244/.319, 59 wRC+. I'd heard that the Red Sox had soured on Middlebrooks, but signing Panda when you have a plethora of trade options seems unnecessary, as does Hanley's (but Hanley in a hitter's park mmmmmm).

As for the Cruz signing, it fills Seattle's needs but doesn't necessarily look good. HR hitter in a spacious park like Safeco? No thanks.

 

[Atticus]

I'll agree with the park difference but there's no way he'll be on a massively better lineup...

if you can't see why MY SIG is massively better than coco/moss/butler than i just don't know what to say

 

[Imanalt]

Heard the Headley/A's rumours, though Panda's contract drives up his price a bit. Considering they are weak at 2B, it wouldn't be a bad deal. Would also work to shut down the thoughts that the A's are in rebuilding mode after trading Donaldson. As for Panda, you can dreamcast his numbers playing in Fenway but then the fact that he's had a bunch of somewhat concerning injuries since 2008 (Surgery on both wrists, left foot problem, left thigh strain) pop up. Also, his offensive numbers, notably BABIP and wRC+, have dropped every year since coming to the league in 2008. His BABIP from 2008-11 (1,869 plate appearances) was .323, and dropped to .301 (1,664 PA) from 2011-14. As for wRC+, these are his numbers since his first full season in 2009: 146, 96, 149, 118, 116, 111. The fact that it's been dropping in every season since 2011 is worrying, but more worrying is his split vs. LHP: .199/.244/.319, 59 wRC+. I'd heard that the Red Sox had soured on Middlebrooks, but signing Panda when you have a plethora of trade options seems unnecessary, as does Hanley's (but Hanley in a hitter's park mmmmmm).

As for the Cruz signing, it fills Seattle's needs but doesn't necessarily look good. HR hitter in a spacious park like Safeco? No thanks.

Agree on cruz, he's just not a very good player, ridiculous to pay a 34 year old whos had three 3 win seasons in his career significant money, just because he's coming off of one of them. I'm sure seattle could have gotten a comparable answer for a lot less, although no one great is jumping into my head at the moment for options (hell, billy butler has almost identical career wRC+, is younger, and got a smaller deal).

Here's a thought i just had on panda though... Is it possible the red sox want to platoon him with a right handed outfielder? Play hanley in left against righties with panda at third and hanley at third against lefties... Could be an interesting option, although they're paying a lot for a platoon player, especially one who isn't a worldbeater with platoon split, only 132 career wRC+, so I'm not sure. It at least is a justifiable rationale for their decisions this offseason though, and the first I've been able to come up with

 

[Celticpride]

I'm pretty sure a big part of the Red Sox signing Sandoval was all the panda merchandise crap. They're probably starting a Kung Fu Panda program on NESN already. That, and they might push him as the face of the franchise after Papi leaves/retires.

 

[LzrGunPewPew]

I'm pretty sure a big part of the Red Sox signing Sandoval was all the panda merchandise crap. They're probably starting a Kung Fu Panda program on NESN already. That, and they might push him as the face of the franchise after Papi leaves/retires.

Or slot him in DH when Ortiz retires, even though if he keeps declining his bat won't play there. It's highly likely the signings were made to give them room to trade some pieces to bring in a top starting pitcher or two.

Fresh from the rumor mill (FIRE UP THE HOT STOVE)

-David Robertson wants something similar or more than what Pappelbon got in 2011 ($50 million range), Still debating if he's worth that much money.
-The Cubs really want Lester, and they made him a 6 year, $135 million deal (lol)
-Not a rumor as much as a prediction, but the Jays and Red Sox will probably start making their individual moves to counter the other.
-Alex Anthopolous, the Jays GM, said that free agent interest increased after the Donaldson trade, and they haven't ruled out signing Robertson to improve the bullpen
-Now that they've lost Cruz, the Orioles might try to grab Matt Kemp from the Dodgers
-The Pirates have prioritized signing Fransisco Liriano
-The Padres are shopping Yasmani Grandal

The Winter meetings are coming soon, I'll be interested to see who goes where leading up to them

 

[Imanalt]

-The Pirates have prioritized signing Fransisco Liriano

Pls no... We'd be much better going after someone else. Liriano is always a questionmark, and for the kind of money he's supposedly asking we could get someone I'd have much more faith in someone like mccarthy, who has had a better fip than liriano 3 of the last 4 years (and better overall over that period at 3.44 vs 3.81). They're the same age, and I don't see any difference in injury risk. But mlbtraderumors predicts 3 years 40m for liriano and 3 year 36m for mccarthy.

On robertson: He's overall underrated, but 50m for a reliever is crazy money. Even being a top 5-10 reliever over the past three years he's only been a 5-5-6 win player over that timeframe. Unless ruben amaro decides he needs another closer I don't see it

 

[LzrGunPewPew]

Pls no... We'd be much better going after someone else. Liriano is always a questionmark, and for the kind of money he's supposedly asking we could get someone I'd have much more faith in

McCarthy seems nice, Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are scheduled to become free agents at the non-tender deadline, though it seems likely that the Braves sign at least one of the two of them, if you can get past their spotty injury histories. As for the current free agent crop, outside of the top of the line pitchers like Lester, Scherzer, Shields and Santana (Scherzer on the Pirates would be fantastic), there isn't much worth looking at (Peavy?)

Viable alternative: Clone Gerrit Cole

Edit: Medlen and Beachy were non-tendered. Full nontender list here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/non-tender-tracker-2014-15
EDIT2: Medlen seems like a solid bounceback candidate on a cheap 1 or 2 year deal, though two Tommy John surgeries isn't a good sign.

 

[Imanalt]

so uh how good are the cubs next year? They're probably overpaying for lester as he shoudl be ~4 wins for the next couple years, and declining slowly. The 6 year 155m would "expect" production of ~26 wins or 4.3 per year... but the cubs have the money to overpay, as pretty much their entire starting lineup is really cheap because of the youth they have coming up. Definitely the highest upside team in baseball next year, since if prospects pan out theyre insane. Of course, some will, some won't etc, so who knows how good theyll actually be.

 

[tennisace]

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck john henry and fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck larry lucchino and fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck tom werner with a large, especially prickly cactus. that is all.

 

[Stallion]

so uh how good are the cubs next year? They're probably overpaying for lester as he shoudl be ~4 wins for the next couple years, and declining slowly. The 6 year 155m would "expect" production of ~26 wins or 4.3 per year... but the cubs have the money to overpay, as pretty much their entire starting lineup is really cheap because of the youth they have coming up. Definitely the highest upside team in baseball next year, since if prospects pan out theyre insane. Of course, some will, some won't etc, so who knows how good theyll actually be.

Cubs are gonna break their curse in the next 4 years barring health, book it.

 

[Celticpride]

Cubs are gonna break their curse in the next 4 years barring health, book it.

Next year if Back to the Future is correct.

Seriously though, the Sox low balled Lester by 20 to 25 million at every turn. Spring training, deal gets done for 100 over 5. Sox offer 75 over 5. This winter Lester comes back to Boston for 155 over 6, Sox offer 135 over 6. I guess Liverpool needed a new benchwarmer instead.

 

[LzrGunPewPew]

Both Chicago teams are worth looking at now, given the moves the White Sox have made in the past few days. The Reds appear to be open to trading Cueto and Chapman now in their quest to offload salary, aka they've become a carcass that the rest of the league will pick from like vultures. They're worth keeping an eye on this offseason as for what they're planning to do with their still really good team. As for the rest of the FAs, Lester signing for such a ridiculous amount has caused an increase in price for some of the other big names, as Scherzer wants upwards of $200 million. Also, much to Imanalt's joy, the Pirates resigned Francisco Liriano to a 3-year deal. I'm predicting the trade market to really heat up as the offseason rolls on, and it'll be interesting to see where Scherzer, Shields, etc end up.

 

[Imanalt]

The white sox... have done nothing to address having the 28th best position players in baseball (by fangraphs war) last year, and while they've improved their pitching staff a closer is generally only worth at most 2-3 wins, and samardzjia's last year was the first time he had ever cracked 3 wins. I'd be surprised if those two combine to be worth more than 5-6 wins, and they aren't replacing replacement level players, so you're probably looking at improving the white sox's win count from 73 to... maybe 77?

 

[Del Rio]

The white sox... have done nothing to address having the 28th best position players in baseball (by fangraphs war) last year, and while they've improved their pitching staff a closer is generally only worth at most 2-3 wins, and samardzjia's last year was the first time he had ever cracked 3 wins. I'd be surprised if those two combine to be worth more than 5-6 wins, and they aren't replacing replacement level players, so you're probably looking at improving the white sox's win count from 73 to... maybe 77?

Implying guys like Eaton and Garcia don't continue to improve.

Assuming no other significant offseason acquisitions are made for other AL Central teams, I think the ChiSox have a great chance to win an increasingly competitive AL Central next season, health permitting (which was an issue last season).

 

[Pretzels]

So Ruben Amaro is starting to unload the Phillies garbage hes been hoarding for 4+ years

To bad hes 2-3 years to late and will only acquire more garbage with his terrible track record with prospects.

The day hes fired will be one of the happiest days of my life.

 

[tennisace]

memo to the red sox management: rick porcello + wade miley + justin masterson != jon lester.

not saying i dont like the porcello trade or the miley trade on their own (spare parts -> areas of need is always good) but there's no ace unless buchholtz magically turns into one again

 

[Imanalt]

memo to the red sox management: rick porcello + wade miley + justin masterson != jon lester.

not saying i dont like the porcello trade or the miley trade on their own (spare parts -> areas of need is always good) but there's no ace unless buchholtz magically turns into one again

No it isnt, its a 3 win player, a 2 win player, and a guy in masterson who could be anywhere from replacement level to 3-4 wins. As opposed to lester who is... a 4 win player? Yes he had a great year last year, but he's not a massively better player than any of these players, you don't need an ace, and when your pitching staff is replacement level coming in youre much better adding two cheap pitchers who combine to be more valuable than one ace who is expensive as fuck

 

[Celticpride]

memo to the red sox management: rick porcello + wade miley + justin masterson != jon lester.

not saying i dont like the porcello trade or the miley trade on their own (spare parts -> areas of need is always good) but there's no ace unless buchholtz magically turns into one again

Well, they did get three decent pitchers without giving up any top end talent. Cespedes wasn't in the long term plans, and Rubby and Webster weren't really top prospects anymore. They can still use the cash earmarked for Lester and prospects to go get an ace. Not to mention that 6 (or potentially 7) years for Lester is moranic. I mean, Pedro didn't work out in New York after he left.

And I just realized that post was from Thursday. Whatever.

 

[tennisace]

you don't need an ace

Wanna name the last team to win the world series in the modern era without an "ace"? I took a look out of curiosity and I'm pretty sure it's the 1990 Cincinnati Reds, aka nearly a quarter of a century ago. You need an "ace", whether nominal or legitimate in order to do well in the postseason these days.

Also, please don't tell me that the Sox are "rebuilding" and that the roster isn't being made for the 2015 post-season; if you're actually rebuilding you don't sign above-average free agents to really large contracts. I get that management is a fucking mess right now and I can't tell who out of: John Henry, Ben Cherington, or Larry Lucchino is actually calling the shots on these contracts and deals (my money is on Lucchino), but srsly you need an ace in order to continue down this path and right now the Sox straight up don't have one.

Celticpride Like I said, I like the moves individually. They did trade spare parts and non-prospects for some good mid-rotation pitching and signed a guy with high upside (I've always liked Masterson). The issue is that this fucking managment can't decide whether or not they're aiming for the top or the bottom, and they're doing a poor job of picking a plan and sticking to it.

 

[Imanalt]

So the 17th best 3b in baseball across the last three years signs for 5 years at $19m/year and the 5th (with approximately twice as much value over replacement) gets 4 years at $13m/year while only two years older.... uh what?__?

 

[moi]

defense don't get bux, bby (also the market isn't valuing with the 3 year span so much, considering that 2012 Headley appears to be an outlier though man imagine what the Padres would've got had they traded him then!)

 

[biggie]

Let's start talking about 2015 fantasy baseball. I'll renew the Smogon league in a few, but who is in that wasn't in previously? Or vice versa?

 

[Stallion]

Let's start talking about 2015 fantasy baseball. I'll renew the Smogon league in a few, but who is in that wasn't in previously? Or vice versa?

Y'all ready for dat fourpeat?

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

So what's the process for our keepers?

I'm coming for you Stall, the DarviStanton train can't be stopped

 

[Del Rio]

Got a tough choice for keepers, but liking my core... We still get six, right?