Also gonna add that due to Lu's sturdiness into most attacks, it's a useful answer emergency check for things which can ease pressure on the rest of the team, even if temporary. It's not super autopilot and has its flaws but it's a solid mon in the tier. Also Ruination is one of the most annoying moves ever. If Super Fang were on good mons.
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Metagame National Dex Metagame Discussion
- Thread starter R8
- Start date
We have a new player survey for National Dex OU! Take a moment to respond and leave your feedback. This one is short.
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/national-dex-player-surveys.3715235/post-10075624
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/national-dex-player-surveys.3715235/post-10075624
Sharing my thoughts to get some discussion going since we got a new survey!
Voted a 7 on both enjoyment and competitiveness. Generally the tier feels quite comfortable in both aspects. There isn't an overload of threats to account for and the big threats that are around mostly feel fair and possible to handle without being forced to run weird or suboptimal stuff to handle. With the exception of one mon.
I voted a 4 on Wellspring. This mon has very shaky "checks" and what do exist depends entirely on what the 4th move a Wellspring brings. Standard SD+Stabs+Superpower already slashes through most of the tier as is, but 4th move options like Play Rough and Knock Off only complicate this further, with the former crushing bulky dragons and the latter running through physically fat Slowking-Galar which otherwise are able to scout most sets at least once and potentially cripple it with status. There's also Encore which trades an attack for the ability to turn all manner of passive pokemon into set up fodder. Even the likes of Ferrothorn can be used as entry if it gets stuck on Stealth Rock or Leech Seed, and this can force incredibly awkward plays from the opponent.
Wellspring is the single best progress forcer in the tier and constrains building to a stupid degree, which is made worse by the fact that many soft checks can simply be brute forced past by Tera Water which amps up Ivy Cudgel and gives Wellspring a special defense boost that can deny revenge killing attempts if it's still healthy enough, complicating matters further. It's obviously possible to contain with faster offense and hazard pressure, but I don't find this to be sufficient or acceptable given how polarizing it is into bulkier teams and how easy it is to fit on a huge range of teams itself, which also makes it easy to alleviate the hazard weakness. I don't care for its presence in the tier at this point.
I actually gave Zama a 3, mostly because it's been so strong lately. I've talked about this elsewhere, but it's incredible splashability and reliability has made it a terrific pick on a number of teams with great role compression as a soft check to a ton of pokemon as well as a great wincon. I think some aspects of it are really great for the tier, but I voted 3 because I do think IronPress sets are proving very potent and with the lack of good ghost types, punishing it can be quite challenging without pokemon like Slowking-Galar or tera ghost pokemon, and thus it can sometimes just auto win games if it sets up right. I don't consider it a problem at this point necessarily, but I do think it's worth keeping an eye on given its current strength and its IronPress sets potency.
Don't really have anything else to add. Thanks to the council for the constant hard work!
Voted a 7 on both enjoyment and competitiveness. Generally the tier feels quite comfortable in both aspects. There isn't an overload of threats to account for and the big threats that are around mostly feel fair and possible to handle without being forced to run weird or suboptimal stuff to handle. With the exception of one mon.
I voted a 4 on Wellspring. This mon has very shaky "checks" and what do exist depends entirely on what the 4th move a Wellspring brings. Standard SD+Stabs+Superpower already slashes through most of the tier as is, but 4th move options like Play Rough and Knock Off only complicate this further, with the former crushing bulky dragons and the latter running through physically fat Slowking-Galar which otherwise are able to scout most sets at least once and potentially cripple it with status. There's also Encore which trades an attack for the ability to turn all manner of passive pokemon into set up fodder. Even the likes of Ferrothorn can be used as entry if it gets stuck on Stealth Rock or Leech Seed, and this can force incredibly awkward plays from the opponent.
Wellspring is the single best progress forcer in the tier and constrains building to a stupid degree, which is made worse by the fact that many soft checks can simply be brute forced past by Tera Water which amps up Ivy Cudgel and gives Wellspring a special defense boost that can deny revenge killing attempts if it's still healthy enough, complicating matters further. It's obviously possible to contain with faster offense and hazard pressure, but I don't find this to be sufficient or acceptable given how polarizing it is into bulkier teams and how easy it is to fit on a huge range of teams itself, which also makes it easy to alleviate the hazard weakness. I don't care for its presence in the tier at this point.
I actually gave Zama a 3, mostly because it's been so strong lately. I've talked about this elsewhere, but it's incredible splashability and reliability has made it a terrific pick on a number of teams with great role compression as a soft check to a ton of pokemon as well as a great wincon. I think some aspects of it are really great for the tier, but I voted 3 because I do think IronPress sets are proving very potent and with the lack of good ghost types, punishing it can be quite challenging without pokemon like Slowking-Galar or tera ghost pokemon, and thus it can sometimes just auto win games if it sets up right. I don't consider it a problem at this point necessarily, but I do think it's worth keeping an eye on given its current strength and its IronPress sets potency.
Don't really have anything else to add. Thanks to the council for the constant hard work!
Gonna give some thoughts about the recent survey, since I feel very strongly about one of the mons we voted on.
I voted a 7 on competitiveness and an 8 on enjoyment. I think the tier is in a pretty good place for the most part, apart from a couple threats. Teambuilding feels pretty diverse and gameplay is fast paced but there's still room for defensive teams to prosper.
I gave her a 3, which seems low based on what I've heard and read around the tier. I just don't think this mon is fast enough to be truly broken and it also suffers from 4MSS. It has tons of offensive checks in the tier due to its relatively low speed tier (thanks gen 9) and most sets get stonewalled by dragon and grass types. The mon does have a few options for its last slot but it can't hit all of its checks and it loses to a lot of the top mons in the tier.
, 
, 
(Tera Dragon), 
, , and even 
, which I've noticed a lot more on ladder, all do well into this mon. Water Absorb's utility is overblown since it can't comfortably switch into the two best offensive water types in the tier (itself and 
). is great into stall, but it's certainly not an unwinnable matchup the way something like 
is. Defensive pokemon have already adapted to this mon's presence with the uptick in Tera Dragon usage. Personally, I think this mon has a healthy place in the meta as a stall-breaker and a rain check.
Here's an example of how stall can adapt to pon:
252 Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tera Dragon Dondozo: 146-174 (28.9 - 34.5%) -- 27.6% chance to 3HKO
I gave the dog a 5. This was probably reactionary but I find this mon incredibly unhealthy. IDef is the best endgame cleaner the tier has had since 
. If you don't have 
, haze , or a phaser you just lose once it gets an IDef off since the mon has box legendary bulk. It subs on basically everything in the tier since it's the fastest non scarfer/booster that's legal and sees usage. does get stonewalled by the 3 main unaware guys but those are extremely hard to fit on non-stall teams except for dirge which is just not that good in general. It does have a few common checks, those being haze and . does absolutely destroy this thing, which is a positive, but is a shaky check since it doesn't actually win the 1v1.
+6 0 Def Tera Steel Zamazenta Body Press vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Slowking-Galar: 115-136 (29.1 - 34.5%) -- 31.8% chance to 3HKO
0 SpA Slowking-Galar Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Tera Steel Zamazenta: 62-73 (15.9 - 18.8%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery
needs to tech flamethrower to win the 1v1 against a PURE FIGHTING TYPE. This mon is an absolute joke. Also, along with its substitute shenanigans, hits incredibly hard. The standard NDOU set hits 399 defense on switch in. Since it essentially only attacks on its Def stat, unless it is ohkoing 
with Heavy Slam, this is equivalent to a mon coming in with 165 base attack while also being the fastest in the tier. Speaking of attack stats, this mon still has a more than respectable attack stat of base 120. Banded sets let it invalidate a lot of the traditional IDef checks, making the endgame even more unplayable since you won't know if it's IDef or Banded until it gets a turn. Switch into your haze ? Enjoy this 2hko:
252 Atk Choice Band Zamazenta Wild Charge vs. 248 HP / 212+ Def Toxapex: 152-180 (50.1 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Also, banded is able to beat one of its main checks in 
since:
252 Atk Choice Band Tera Fighting Zamazenta Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Clodsire: 280-330 (60.3 - 71.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
As for the other two unaware guys, they struggle with's two most common partners: and 
. + banded is a core with pretty much 0 common switch-ins while provides invaluable support for by trapping and removing its main checks in the midgame. Overall, is incredibly restrictive on teambuilding and gameplay, while also being incredibly easy to support and having multiple viable sets along with a ridiculous speed tier.
I wrote this mon in since I personally don't think it is healthy in the tier. I don't know if it is "broken" in the traditional sense but I do think this mon is not fun to have around when it can pick and choose its checks. For more information about written by players a lot better than me, check out this post + thread for its suspect in SVOU.
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...und-12-moth-to-a-flame.3741138/#post-10074835
That's all. I hope we can continue to have a fun, balanced tier throughout the rest of the generation. :)
I voted a 7 on competitiveness and an 8 on enjoyment. I think the tier is in a pretty good place for the most part, apart from a couple threats. Teambuilding feels pretty diverse and gameplay is fast paced but there's still room for defensive teams to prosper.
I gave her a 3, which seems low based on what I've heard and read around the tier. I just don't think this mon is fast enough to be truly broken and it also suffers from 4MSS. It has tons of offensive checks in the tier due to its relatively low speed tier (thanks gen 9) and most sets get stonewalled by dragon and grass types. The mon does have a few options for its last slot but it can't hit all of its checks and it loses to a lot of the top mons in the tier.
, , (Tera Dragon), , , and even , which I've noticed a lot more on ladder, all do well into this mon. Water Absorb's utility is overblown since it can't comfortably switch into the two best offensive water types in the tier (itself and ). is great into stall, but it's certainly not an unwinnable matchup the way something like is. Defensive pokemon have already adapted to this mon's presence with the uptick in Tera Dragon usage. Personally, I think this mon has a healthy place in the meta as a stall-breaker and a rain check.Here's an example of how stall can adapt to pon:
252 Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tera Dragon Dondozo: 146-174 (28.9 - 34.5%) -- 27.6% chance to 3HKO
I gave the dog a 5. This was probably reactionary but I find this mon incredibly unhealthy. IDef
is the best endgame cleaner the tier has had since . If you don't have , haze , or a phaser you just lose once it gets an IDef off since the mon has box legendary bulk. It subs on basically everything in the tier since it's the fastest non scarfer/booster that's legal and sees usage. does get stonewalled by the 3 main unaware guys but those are extremely hard to fit on non-stall teams except for dirge which is just not that good in general. It does have a few common checks, those being haze and . does absolutely destroy this thing, which is a positive, but is a shaky check since it doesn't actually win the 1v1.+6 0 Def Tera Steel Zamazenta Body Press vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Slowking-Galar: 115-136 (29.1 - 34.5%) -- 31.8% chance to 3HKO
0 SpA Slowking-Galar Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Tera Steel Zamazenta: 62-73 (15.9 - 18.8%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery
needs to tech flamethrower to win the 1v1 against a PURE FIGHTING TYPE. This mon is an absolute joke. Also, along with its substitute shenanigans, hits incredibly hard. The standard NDOU set hits 399 defense on switch in. Since it essentially only attacks on its Def stat, unless it is ohkoing with Heavy Slam, this is equivalent to a mon coming in with 165 base attack while also being the fastest in the tier. Speaking of attack stats, this mon still has a more than respectable attack stat of base 120. Banded sets let it invalidate a lot of the traditional IDef checks, making the endgame even more unplayable since you won't know if it's IDef or Banded until it gets a turn. Switch into your haze ? Enjoy this 2hko:252 Atk Choice Band Zamazenta Wild Charge vs. 248 HP / 212+ Def Toxapex: 152-180 (50.1 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Also, banded
is able to beat one of its main checks in since:252 Atk Choice Band Tera Fighting Zamazenta Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Clodsire: 280-330 (60.3 - 71.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
As for the other two unaware guys, they struggle with
's two most common partners: and . + banded is a core with pretty much 0 common switch-ins while provides invaluable support for by trapping and removing its main checks in the midgame. Overall, is incredibly restrictive on teambuilding and gameplay, while also being incredibly easy to support and having multiple viable sets along with a ridiculous speed tier.I wrote this mon in since I personally don't think it is healthy in the tier. I don't know if it is "broken" in the traditional sense but I do think this mon is not fun to have around when it can pick and choose its checks. For more information about
written by players a lot better than me, check out this post + thread for its suspect in SVOU.https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...und-12-moth-to-a-flame.3741138/#post-10074835
That's all. I hope we can continue to have a fun, balanced tier throughout the rest of the generation. :)
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superpower (its most common coverage) beats half of these, and saying serp checks it properly is laughable, considering +2 sp ohkoes and +2 whip ohkoes after rocks lol. even tera dragon physdef pex can lose lol if it takes rocks / if its chipped. zama can basically also only switch in once, since after that it dies to cudgel because no boost. it doesnt have to switch into those mons you mentioned, but being able to pivot into them in a pinch, deter ss, and force them out is more than enough. tera dragon uptick is solely due to this mon, and even then teams are losing to it lol, forcing yourself to waste a teams most valuable asset just to beat a mon (and still possibly lose) is unserious.I gave her a 3, which seems low based on what I've heard and read around the tier. I just don't think this mon is fast enough to be truly broken and it also suffers from 4MSS. It has tons of offensive checks in the tier due to its relatively low speed tier (thanks gen 9) and most sets get stonewalled by dragon and grass types. The mon does have a few options for its last slot but it can't hit all of its checks and it loses to a lot of the top mons in the tier.
Here's an example of how stall can adapt to pon:
252 Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tera Dragon Dondozo: 146-174 (28.9 - 34.5%) -- 27.6% chance to 3HKO
in practice, this entire argument falls apart (alongside you failing to account for other checks). theres a reason why this set has barely won much in the tier tour wise, disproportionate to its usage stat at least in ndwc. it is not hard to deal with and easily pressured, and checks to it are common and used often, and it cheeses some wins but not close enough to be ban worthy, or even voted a 5 lol. ftr, you ignored some other checks like volc, zapdos, slowbro, and clef if it isnt tera steel / slammers, and this is also ignoring other more niche mons that people use. you cant even argue that this is due to these mons being used so much due to people overpreparing for this mon, because they simply arent (pex and gking have a combined usage rate of an average of 30% in those 2 weeks, which when you think about these are 2 a-> a+ pokemon, so usage rate like this makes sense and other mons usage stats reflect this well too, with the s tiers being used more and the b tiers being used less, with the only real discrepencies happening around the c to low b ranks, and is a similiar amount to what these mons have had in past tournaments as well. no one is running things they wouldnt normally run because of it, and frankly i do not think if we banned id zama (hypothetically just id zama, not the other sets, for the sake of these thought experiments), no ones teams will be affected barring the ones that use the set, i had to really specify this point because people love to bring it up, and its honestly a nonsensical argument that has no statistical/factual backing. ftr flame gking has been used for a long while, its not some specific tech people use solely for zama, there just sp happens to be an a+ and a tier pokemon that are 4x weak to fire that are very annoying to deal with sometimes. people do not struggle with this mon, no one is overprepping for it, it punishes badly built teams and badly played games. the argument about banded sets is also a joke considering no one is using band zama because its horrid, and better done by other breakers, as its so easily scoutable and predictable, and is reliant on weak coverage like ice fang to break through stuff. you are heavily exagerrating how hard it is to “predict” a zama set, and the end game factor, you can guess by the team structure, the way the game is played and if its forced to come in, which frankly, it does a lot since its the premier speed control option in the tier. these calcs are also unserious, like ok u swap into pex, take the 50 and switch out (heal 30 of that), while zama takes the wc chip and then does nothing because you swapped into a ground, and you lose momentum. clod is also used only on stall, and frankly the best / most used stall used nowadays is the chinese stall (which is on the samples), which has a pex on it, and its doing that same interaction.I gave the dog a 5. This was probably reactionary but I find this mon incredibly unhealthy. IDef
+6 0 Def Tera Steel Zamazenta Body Press vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Slowking-Galar: 115-136 (29.1 - 34.5%) -- 31.8% chance to 3HKO
0 SpA Slowking-Galar Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Tera Steel Zamazenta: 62-73 (15.9 - 18.8%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Choice Band Zamazenta Wild Charge vs. 248 HP / 212+ Def Toxapex: 152-180 (50.1 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Also, banded
252 Atk Choice Band Tera Fighting Zamazenta Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Clodsire: 280-330 (60.3 - 71.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
genuinely this set is just a boogeyman that people make up it doing stuff but in practice it is vastly toned down and easy to deal with. its a good mon, dont get me wrong, and its setup sets are relatively consistent, but anyone saying this mon is broken vastly underestimates how much effort it goes into positioning it properly and playing safely with it to prevent it from getting knocked, statused, chipped, etc etc.
if u think idbp zama is annoying and cheeses some wins sometimes, sure, id agree, ive lost to it too sometimes, but saying its broken is laughable, and magnitudes below waterpon, and *actually* restrictive pokemon that can beat its checks reliably (which are already limited)
Superpower Pon does beat a lot of the checks I listed but according to Pikalytics, Superpower is only on 18% of sets. Encore is a lot more common coming in at 38% usage. Serp, while not a perfect check, is often able to trade with Pon to get a glare off. IDef Zama is also able to switch in more often than not once due to Ogerpon's speed tier. It takes 50% maximum from Ivy Cudgel without a defense boost and then takes 25% from Cudgel at +2 defense. Assuming Zama is at 75% HP (Takes 30ish from Cudgel at +1 defense then factor in lefties), then it has a good chance to live and potentially ohko Oger after rocks. Tera Dragon Pex can lose if it takes rocks, yes, but the main Pex set right now runs boots. As for Tera Dragon being because of Ogerpon, I think it is a moot point. Dragon is an excellent defensive typing with several important resists. While SVOU is a different metagame, this Tera Type Index shows 6 primarily defensive/utility pokemon in SVOU that were running Tera Dragon before Ogerpon even released. To say that turning a defensive pokemon into a Dragon type is "wasting a team's most valuable asset" is simply not true.
Zama had a 60% winrate in week 2 of NDWC with 21% usage. I do see that its performance in week 1 was middling but I think more data is needed from NDWC before a significant conclusion can be drawn.
Admittedly, Slowbro is an excellent check that I did ignore so fair point there. I think that Volc and Zapdos are not excellent checks however since they both lose to banded Zama. +1 Volc doesn't kill even with fire blast since Zama has 92/115 special bulk. Clef, as you mentioned, loses bad to tera steel + heavy slam which is the main set found on Smogon Dex.
This tier has a sample team with banded Zama. Even if it is not the best set, it's still something people need to prepare for and be ready to play around.
Yea, I'm not gonna lie, the Pex calc is not the best illustration of my point. Here's a better one along with a frame of reference:
252 Atk Choice Band Tera Fighting Zamazenta Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 242-286 (48 - 56.7%) -- 89.1% chance to 2HKO
252+ Atk Black Glasses Supreme Overlord 4 allies fainted Tera Dark Kingambit Kowtow Cleave vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 230-272 (45.6 - 53.9%) -- 46.9% chance to 2HKO
I feel as though a lot of these things could also be said about Gambit. While yes, there is effort that goes into positioning and keeping it healthy, that effort is there with pretty much every offensive pokemon and once Zama/Gambit are in safely, you're free to click buttons.
Overall, I think that voting a 5 on Zama was probably excessive on my part, but I do think the mon is bannable and not healthy for the tier.
Ladder usage has a habit of being weird in this tier and doesn’t always represent things the best. Superpower is more common at high level play.
Serp is a difficult mon to build with but also struggles to take repeated ivy cudgels, especially with hazards up. To say nothing of knock off varients that cripple it. IronPress Zam is also one crit away from not handling it well (I’ve encountered this problem far more than I care for) and the move being high crit rate makes this happen often. Zam is also used to check other stuff so it’s rarely at full health let alone at +1, and straight up loses to play rough variants.
gonna touch on your listed “checks” too. Already touched on Serp being shaky, but Rilla is equally shaky and without a band, straight up flops as a true check. +2 power whip OHKOs non bulky rilla with rocks and has a good roll to do so with rocks after the slightest chip. You need band and tear grass to ensure you threaten it back, and Oger can simply play the long game picking it off with repeated hits (and with hazards, rilla has notorious bad longevity because of them).
Tera dragon largely is used because of wellspring and on Pokémon like Toxapex, dragon opens you up to Pokémon you wouldn’t normally be weak to. Big one is Valiant, but you also no longer can pivot into choice locked moonblasts from Lele and are now weak to Weavile. Pex is also often a knock off absorber which means it will lose boots, making it very easy to pressure with hazards after the fact. And it still loses to play rough and encore versions of Ogerpon.
that list is updated actually with modern Pokémon. That’s relatively up to date and those dragon Teras are primarily for Ogerpon. That list also isn’t really relevant here anyways, but dragon Tera does very little but check ogerpon in an emergency. It doesn’t really do much of anything else majorly relevant and as I said, opens you up to other big threats.
Click the button at the bottom where it says "Pre DLC Index". Dragon has been used on Garg, Tusk, Corv long before Ogerpon dropped bc Dragon is a good Tera type.
I will acknowledge that a lot of defensive checks to Ogerpon are very shaky, but I don't think this is grounds for a mon to be broken. Tapu Lele and Mega Diancie are two pokemon have very inconsistent defensive switch ins and they're both completely manageable in the tier. Like Ogerpon, they are manageable because of their frailty and relatively poor speed tiers.
Tapu Lele has plenty of soft checks from Ferrothorn to Heatran to Galar Slowking, and then pairing those with checks forces prediction on Lele’s part. This in conjunction with hazard pressure and possibility of pursuit from Mega Tyranitar and Weavile as well as the presence of Iron Crown which is a good Pokémon and hard counters Lele, it’s plenty manageable. Compared to Wellspring which has no really consistent checks. Not sure why you brought up Mega Diancie when it’s plenty checkable defensively. Gliscor, Toxapex, Galar Slowking, Iron Crown, and pivoting in offensive resists. Mega Scizor cant handle mystical fire for example but moonblast or earth power gives entry and threatening it with bullet punch.
furthermore Wellspring isn’t relatively slow. Its speed is still above average for a balance breaker. Fact the only faster threats are Zam, Darkrai, Lop, Koko and Iron Valiant as far as relevant, splashable mons go. It has offensive counter play, but that alone is not enough to make it balanced.
Tapu Lele can slot focus blast, psyshock, HP fire, etc. to get through its checks. Mega Diancie is capable of 2hko'ing every pokemon you listed before rocks except for Gliscor, which is does have a chance to 2hko after rocks. Both of these mons can run coverage, like Wellspring, that give them no real switch ins. Also, while Wellspring's speed may make it fast for a balance breaker, it's still pretty slow for being a setup mon. It can't boost its speed without using trailblaze which is complete garbage. We have mons that are reasonably similar to Wellspring in the tier already and the playerbase has adapted to manage them.
You're ignoring the part about prediction for Lele which is a huge hindering factor to potential brokenness as it needs a choice item. Teams often have multiple pokemon that can force it to make these predictions which helps limit its threat, and it's not too hard to pivot around with good intuition and playing that way. Specs is also the sole set that would even be in contention here as scarf doesn't have the power to be overwhelming and is a majorly positive presence in the tier as it's the best long term speed control around. Mega Diancie is strong but pokemon with good longevity can trade blows with it well enough through a game to limit it. This along with offensive pressure and the fact it can't set up helps keep it fine. Plus there are mons it should be able to threaten like Zamazenta or Mega Medicham that can threaten it back (Heavy Slam for Zama and Bullet Punch for MMed). You can scout these pokemon reasonably and not feel super pressured by doing so. You can't really do this vs Wellspring who is one of the worst mons to try and scout. And Wellspring gets a lot of opportunities by way of its amazing defensive utility for such an offensively inclined pokemon while Lele/Diancie, though having some, is more limited.
As for Wellspring's speed, it REALLY isn't that slow for a set up threat. Yes, some stuff can boost speed to be faster than it, but they certainly aren't doing so in front of it. Zam, Darkrai, Lop, Koko and Iron Valiant are the only relevant faster mons with three of those counting as set up themselves. Wellspring still outpaces a lot of the base metagame itself, and while it isn't broken into offense it still can trade at worse, and played smartly, still contribute value. The match up balance and bulky teams have into it is miserable because unless you bring a check for two different coverage types each (which is two slots minimum for one mon and they have to be able to threaten it back), it'll push progress more than anything and often just run the team over. We really don't have anything that's even close to similar to Wellspring's impact on teambuilding regarding balance/bulky teams.
Prediction is a big part of Lele's gameplay but it's also a decently large part of Ogerpon's. It doesn't hit hard enough without an SD to muscle past its checks with play rough/superpower a lot of the time. For example, Uninvested DNite can come in on Ivy Cudgel, eat a max roll, and then have an 82% chance to survive play rough and KO back. Unless you SD on a switch, a prediction, you are very likely to lose the trade there. You also mention offensive pressure helping to keep MDiancie in check, but it's also important to note that offensive pressure is the best way to keep Ogerpon in check. Unless it gets a turn to SD, it's not strong enough to do anything. As for Ogerpon having more defensive utility than Lele/MDia, that is debatable. MDia is functionally status immune while Lele, as you mentioned, is the best long term speed control in the tier. If anything, Ogerpon's utility is also beneficial for the tier since it helps to reign in Alomomola flip turn since without Pon it becomes incredibly difficult to slow down the endless cycle of Mola wishpass. Also, you claim that Ogerpon can trade well into offense but I don't really believe that's true. Looking at the HO Sample Team it's easy to see that Ogerpon can't really come in safely on any of the pokemon here. Obviously this isn't the only HO team around but a lot of the other popular ones give Ogerpon problems as well. As for Ogerpon being restrictive to bulky teams, I fail to see how it is more restrictive than any other mon with several viable sets, such as Kyurem or Valiant, or how it is more restrictive than some of the stronger breakers in the tier like Luna, MMedi, or MMaw.
18% is quite a lot on ladder, and i expect that to rise a lot more too, since people were generally on the encore train as they realised how good that was in sv. regardless you cannot deny its viability when waterpon literally has only like 2 proper checks if using superpower, and everything else dies. id zama can also only switch into it once, because next time it loses, next time either waterpon can take a hit and ko back, or it just outright teras on the switch and kos it after rock. your ignoring that pex can take chip of any kind, and that its forced to tera, forced to run toxic, forced to run physdef, and even then it still has a 25% chance to lose lol. and you bring up svou which is a completely different meta, and i think atp i have to ignore it lol, but glad you brought it up actually. do you see any of these mons with dragon as their primary tera type? its always the second or third or fourth option. now you ask a natdex player how many mons tera dragon is their primary option, and even forced to in some cases like dondozo or gking. and yes, forcing you to tera dragon early on just to have a check to it is “wasting a teams most valuable asset”, because now they inherently have the upper hand with the option to tera reactively / proactively and you dont. this is an undeniable fact, you cannot just say this is not true, just because some mons have used tera dragon in the past, non of them were forced to tera early on solely to have a waterpon “check”.
and this is why just looking at winrate doesnt actually work. if you actually watched the games, you would see that id zama only won 2 games, and one of it was against another id zama where all it (the winning id zama) did was sack itself vs the opposing id zama. otherwise, the rest was all boots with iirc one band set. its performance in both weeks was middling, and you would have known if you watched the games with it lol.
dude no one is using banded zama. u dont need to keep bringing it up, even the most adamant pro ban zama agrees that this set is garbage and that no one is using it. it is not hard to guess the set based on play and team structure, and can be scouted with the million regen mons we have in the tier, or with lando. why does volc even have to ohko, it just qds up and fishes with burns lol, then it can 2hko it. clef loses to one set, but beats the rest, repeating what i said doesnt make your point any more valid.
i talked to ineros about this team when it was uploaded, and they agreed that boots would be a better set here, but it was already uploaded and they enjoyed it with band anyways. yeah sure people need to be “prepared” for it, and thats why we have the million checks for it already, and 24 regen mons to scout it lol. doesnt change the fact its a bad set.
this calc might even be worse lol, and if you want to bring up samples, the sample stall (which is probably what 99% of people who are using stall in this tier are using) has a pex, so this calc is moot and irrelevant.
it is completely unable to be said at all about gambit, since gambit didnt have any long term walls at all, and it has a move that generates progress 100% of the time, that zama doesnt, and comparing the two is laughable. you click body press into the lando no progress, you click cc into the lando or glisc no progress, you click ice fang into the pex no progress, u click id when they go pex no progress, u click yada yada yada no progress. you just are unable to do anything at all if you are an id zama and there is a pex / bro on the opposing team, depending on your tera type this list goes up even higher. genuinely you did not play / watch gambit meta if you think the 2 are even comparable, and even then, gambit suspect was very close lol.
and this is why just looking at winrate doesnt actually work. if you actually watched the games, you would see that id zama only won 2 games, and one of it was against another id zama where all it (the winning id zama) did was sack itself vs the opposing id zama. otherwise, the rest was all boots with iirc one band set. its performance in both weeks was middling, and you would have known if you watched the games with it lol.
dude no one is using banded zama. u dont need to keep bringing it up, even the most adamant pro ban zama agrees that this set is garbage and that no one is using it. it is not hard to guess the set based on play and team structure, and can be scouted with the million regen mons we have in the tier, or with lando. why does volc even have to ohko, it just qds up and fishes with burns lol, then it can 2hko it. clef loses to one set, but beats the rest, repeating what i said doesnt make your point any more valid.
i talked to ineros about this team when it was uploaded, and they agreed that boots would be a better set here, but it was already uploaded and they enjoyed it with band anyways. yeah sure people need to be “prepared” for it, and thats why we have the million checks for it already, and 24 regen mons to scout it lol. doesnt change the fact its a bad set.
this calc might even be worse lol, and if you want to bring up samples, the sample stall (which is probably what 99% of people who are using stall in this tier are using) has a pex, so this calc is moot and irrelevant.
it is completely unable to be said at all about gambit, since gambit didnt have any long term walls at all, and it has a move that generates progress 100% of the time, that zama doesnt, and comparing the two is laughable. you click body press into the lando no progress, you click cc into the lando or glisc no progress, you click ice fang into the pex no progress, u click id when they go pex no progress, u click yada yada yada no progress. you just are unable to do anything at all if you are an id zama and there is a pex / bro on the opposing team, depending on your tera type this list goes up even higher. genuinely you did not play / watch gambit meta if you think the 2 are even comparable, and even then, gambit suspect was very close lol.
this cannot be a serious message, right? waterpon, frail? when its special bulk with tera lets it completely flip the matchup on would-be revenge killers like torn, and poor speed tier, when its pretty much the fastest a mon can be without actually being speed control? come on lol. its mdia but with bulk and lele but with a speed tier.
this is 100% not true at all lol, just watching some of the wcop games last week instantly dismisses this as a fairy tale. the mon has forced teras without even needing to sd, just raw cudgeling its checks, and forces them into recovery / beats them outright since they are easy to wear down.
good that you bring up my sample, because the reason why this is so strong against waterpon is because i prepped incredibly hard vs it as other iterations have struggled against it. without waterpon i probably wouldnt use serp and might even change the dnite set / dnite in general to something else.
If your team has to tera immediately in order to check Waterpon, it's a poorly constructed team. Whether or not Waterpon is actually broken, it is still a premier breaker in the meta. How often are people really teraing early game just to check Waterpon. As for Zama only being able to switch in once, a lot of times Waterpon is only able to come in safely once.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9nationaldex-757064
In this game, Zama forces out Ogerpon after a bad predict and then it never gets a chance to come in again.
I'm glad you took the opportunity to be rude and dismissive for no reason, just to address my point anyways. You can disagree with me all you want but the snark is obnoxious. I bring up SVOU because NatDex doesn't have a resource like this as far as I know.
I went back and skimmed the games and saw IDef Zama winning 3 games. Beraldo and Avarice both swept with it while LBN was able to clean up with it. Also, you argue that nobody is using banded Zama but there are people bringing it to WC. And if you want to say that Banded is bad, then there are still two viable Zama sets that are commonly found at high level play. Zama also just got moved up to S- rank on the VR with the information from NDWC in mind.
I don't see how comparing two late game cleaners who climbed to S rank on the VR is laughable. Even if they aren't exactly the same, they're two pokemon that fill similar roles in teambuilding. Gambit was a lot easier to force progress with, yes, but it also was outplayable and wasn't spamming sub to bypass status and other reasonable checks. It was also easier to wear down Gambit in lategame situations since it wasn't boosting its defense like Zama does.
I don't see how the fastest viable mon in the tier having that level of damage output is irrelevant. Sure, banded Zama is not the best set, but it is still a strong mon (Zama CC is actually just as strong as unboosted Ogerpon Cudgel) even without a band.
Its physical bulk still leaves a lot to be desired and it is easily worn down by hazards since it can't hold an item. Base 110 is a good speed tier but it can't boost. It's able to be revenged by mons like MLop and Zama.
Speaking of Ogerpon in WCoP, what happened to its usage? It got half the usage in week 2 as it did in week 1.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9nationaldex-759475
Here it is losing to tera grass Heatran, which is a standard set.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9nationaldex-759418
In this game, even at +2, it loses to one of the Lati twins.
In both of its wins week 2 (Xurkiyee and Seth) it does basically nothing. It doesn't even come out in Seth's game while Xurkiyee did 25% to pex and then sacked it a few turns later. The mon is not particularly overwhelming in gameplay apart from hitting hard. As for restricting teambuilding, I'm not seeing a lot of that. I see plenty of Stall, Balance, and Rain in WCoP which are 3 archetypes that Wellspring is traditionally pretty good into. It's not as good into rain since the introduction of Archaludon but you argued earlier that Superpower Wellspring can beat it. Despite this, the archetypes that Ogerpon is supposed to be a huge threat to are still seeing prevalence in a world where Ogerpon is considered for a suspect test.
Dragonite and Serperior are not exactly niche HO picks. Also, those two mons still do not change the fact that Ogerpon cannot come in on any of the mons on the team except Volc if you burn tera.
In the end, Ogerpon is just a strong threat that needs to be accounted for and not banned. While it may be a slippery slope fallacy, so forgive me if I'm wrong, what offensive tools does Ogerpon-W provide that Ogerpon-C doesn't. Ogerpon-C, if anything, has an even better offensive typing. If Ogerpon-W gets banned for being too hard to switch into, then is Ogerpon-C next? The same thing happened with Ogerpon-H's ban heavily contributing to the rise of Waterpon.
adem covered the other points of yours in your previous comment so I'll focus on this one
Kyurem's balance breaking specs sets are very hazard weak and still prediction reliant so getting up hazards is important as well as having good defensive cores to force that prediction. Valiant meanwhile isn't even restricting to balance. They have so many tools to deal with it, and if anything the mon has slightly downtrended with the presence of Glowking on so many teams. Luna? Yeah it's strong but the poor speed and typing makes it tolerable between smart positioning, chip damage and keeping up offensive pressure (pivoting cores help). MMedi is limited through offensive pressure due to its middling speed and its typing not giving it easy entry onto things. MMaw is the best of these and a pretty rapidly rising threat to combat bulkier structures but it still has some flaws holding it back. Very poor speed and middling bulk that betray its great defensive typing.
Yeah that's just no. I'd watch wcop games where it's putting out that pressure to see it. It's not because "teams are poorly constructed" but because it exerts pressure to force awkward plays. You also cherry picked a specific game where the opponent had a team that was very prepped for Wellspring (screens, Zama, Serp and I imagine possibly a tera type Manaphy with a neutral/good Waterpon match up).
Because it ignores nuance. Kingambit rose to S because it was the single most dominant, centralizing threat that also brought huge utility to every team. Gambit generated 100% progess every game, pursuit trapped massive threats and wasn't really something you could have truly consistent answers for. Zama is splashable, flexible and has a strong wincon set in IronPress, but it has ironclad counters and can be kept in check with more tactics and team comps. It doesn't generate instant progress and can thud pretty easily. Gambit wasn't really easy to outplay. Switching out invited knock off spam or the retreating mon to get pursuited, and endgames with a free tera let Gambit get set up very easily.
Banded Zam is a set that saps momentum far too easily when mispredicting as you get stuck on a bad move and give your opponent free reign to do whatever. Thud into a Pex and it's free to click scald, toxic or knock off. Or heck even tspikes if it has it. Thud into a Glowking and it clicks Future Sight and chilly reception out. Thud into Lando and you're getting uturned on.
Not really. Passable physical bulk, but especially helpful with a ground resist which gives it so many entry points against the top 2 pokemon in the tier. Hazards are an overblown weakness it has in a tier with more hazard removal and easily fit at that. Wellspring teams are built to deny opposing hazard set up and it's able to still perform even if rocks are up. Having revenge killers doesn't make it not cracked.
You're cherry picking here too. Both games the opposing team is specially prepped quite notably for Wellspring with multiple answers to it. When a mon so strong as Wellspring is prepped for significantly, it will decrease in usage. This happened with SS Dracovish despite that very blatantly being broken, That doesn't mean Wellspring isn't, and if anything shows how centralizing it's become. Also that replay with the Latios is not really notable bcause that only worked due to it winning a speed tie (which is another factor of Wellspring's BS that supposed checks have to win speed ties).
Serperior is quite niche in general, as it's a flawed pokemon that's a big tera hog and the lack of insta oomph makes it not easy to get going. Dragonite also is slipping and becoming more niche as its flaws become more apparent (moveslot issues is a big one). But more than anything you're ignoring the fact this set up (Dnite+Serp) is specifically for one mon and that's on a playstyle that theoretically should naturally match up well into it. If HO needs that, imagine how balance and BO fairs. As for Ogerpon-C, it is a significantly easier pokemon to manage because it has almost no defensive utility by comparison to Wellspring and has a much harder time coming into battle, limiting the structures it fits on. Your comment on Ogerpon-H's ban is, no offense, kinda ignorant. Wellspring was already incredibly good with Ogerpon-H around so of course it would rise with the opportunity cost no longer there. Cornerstone-C doesn't match either in splashability.
These are all pretty reasonable arguments. I will say that MMaw does have pretty comparable physical bulk to Wellspring with better defensive typing, so I don't really agree with the argument that middling bulk holds it back. Also, MMedi's speed does not seem that much more restrictive than Ogerpon's when it comes to playing against balance. They are both fast enough to outrun all the defensive threats they need to break while being slower than revenge killers. MMedi's speed is also managed by its access to priority.
Gambit was definitely more dominant and centralizing than Zama, but they do both provide important utility and cleaning. Free tera for Zama also allows it to set up and Zama has several viable tera types and coverage moves that it can run. Obviously it's not as versatile as Gambit but it is, in my opinion, the closest thing the tier has seen to an Uno Reverse Card since Gambit was banned.
Can you link some games where it puts out pressure? I wasn't able to watch all of the WCoP games so I tried to find ones that supported my argument. That game was a bad Ogerpon matchup but Zama was able to force it out which is more the point I wanted to illustrate by linking it.
It is still able to do its job if rocks are up but it doesn't like spikes or t-spikes which really hurts it into opposing HO. I don't know if I agree with ground resist giving it a lot of good entry points into Lando since U-Turn does do a ton. It does come in on Scor pretty easily, though.
I mean, Wellspring was only brought to 5 games in week 2 and in 4 of them it did very little. I do think that Wellspring is a mon that is prepped for, but I don't think that it is truly overcentralizing. The team structures still look natural when they're prepared for Wellspring. You mention SSOU Dracovish but that Pokemon was so broken that Seismitoad received 36% usage in week 2 SPL XI. I think that that is a far different kind of overcentralizing than Wellspring brings. Admittedly, yeah, the Latios replay sucks. The other Lati, however, is able to check Ogerpon with its standard sets.
I mean, Serp and DNite aren't the best mons ever no but they're still decent picks and they're far from mandatory on HO builds to handle Wellspring. Also, these mons may have been added to help with Wellspring but they're definitely not specifically for it. Z-Dragonite is the teams main breaker and that set has seen usage since before Wellspring dropped. I did say that my Ogerpon-C claim was probably in bad faith but I will defend it regardless. Ogerpon-C is definitely worse than Waterpon but it's still a B rank mon and has been steadily climbing the VR since its debut into C- right next to Grasspon. While defensive utility is important it provides similar, if not better offensive prowess; it's better into Torn, Zap, DNite, and the Lati twins. If Ogerpon-Wellspring was banned, Ogerpon-C would cause a lot of similar problems for bulkier teams. It's definitely a worse pokemon but I think that a lot of the ban arguments for Ogerpon-W could be applied to Ogerpon-C. As for the Ogerpon-H claim, I looked back at the old VRs and it was still A rank at a time when Ogerpon-H was just being banned so yes my argument was pretty ignorant.
Okay finally have time to respond
Regarding usage, several games it ran into teams with 2 mons checking it (Like Ferro/Lati for example) which naturally would diminish it when you're prepped that much for it. There was also quite a bit of fast offense which doesn't afford as many chances to break down teams and I imagine people didn't bring it as much expecting people were prepped for it.
Cornerstone really only is better into Dragonite since it doesn't have to run a coverage move for those. The Lati twins can get brute forced past by tera Wellspring and Zap/Torn just lose to it outright (Zap can't take +2 Cudgels without significant investment and just loses to tera while Torn can't beat it if it teras). Wellspring getting a spdef boost post tera also makes the list of revenge killing options smaller too. You can't really make the same arguments for Cornerstone that you do for Wellspring because Cornerstone has functionally no ability if hazards are up and lacks the ability to come into games nearly as often so limiting it is much easier.
Thing is, the low speed undermines MMaw's typing and decent defense stat as it's forced to take hits before firing back often. Compared to Wellspring which doesn't have to nearly as often worry about that because 110 is superb for a wallbreaker and leaves it will a small pool of faster offensive resists. MMedi's priority is unstab btw which is not to be relied on as a means of circumventing its lower speed.
Gambit compressed all of its roles in one slot and rarely needed much help outside very specific match ups. There was no truly bad match up that Gambit couldn't immediately contribute and make progress in while Zama has match ups where it can't threaten nearly as quicky (Zapdos, Glowking, Toxapex, Valiant, Volcarona). Zama has targets that it needs help removing while Gambit actively participated in breaking down its own answers.
It doesn't like multiple hazards I think I mentioned it before, Wellspring teams are pretty tightly built to keep pressure down or off so it gets those chances. TSpikes on HO also don't really exist to my knowledge outside Glimmora which is and has been a really mediocre pokemon for some time (too easy to remove the early hazards and deny TSpikes with various leads). Of course vs Lando you are careful around uturn, but it's not the hardest thing to pop in as it clicks rocks or bait Earthquake.
It KOd Volc in one game and only lost due to the sudden tera grass Heatran (I imagine to open up path for Mola to keep pivoting more freely). Plus that whole team was weak to standar SD+Stabs+Superpower and had that been the set, it would've been a very, very difficult game for Mada to win (that switch to Volc honestly felt like they expected it and were hoping to fish for a burn on a predicted Superpower). And actually regarding games where it outputs pressure I'd actually argue that game was an example of such as you have to respect Superpower as coverage so much, and had Mada not tera'd Heatran it would've been easy to constantly push progress every time it came in. And had it been Superpower, Heatran would actually still likely have lost.
Regarding usage, several games it ran into teams with 2 mons checking it (Like Ferro/Lati for example) which naturally would diminish it when you're prepped that much for it. There was also quite a bit of fast offense which doesn't afford as many chances to break down teams and I imagine people didn't bring it as much expecting people were prepped for it.
Serp is awkward to build with and not at all slappable on teams, even not an auto include for HO teams. Dragonite is also pretty disappointing outside super offensive teams as it faces issues with choosing a third attack or roost, and no matter which it has major issues (3rd attack significantly hampers defensive utility and choosing roost diminishes its threat significantly). So both really see play on those types of teams which doesn't address the main issue which is Wellspring is oppressive into bulkier structures that aren't stacking multiple checks to it (and often needing something faster than it to have a chance to revenge it).
Cornerstone really only is better into Dragonite since it doesn't have to run a coverage move for those. The Lati twins can get brute forced past by tera Wellspring and Zap/Torn just lose to it outright (Zap can't take +2 Cudgels without significant investment and just loses to tera while Torn can't beat it if it teras). Wellspring getting a spdef boost post tera also makes the list of revenge killing options smaller too. You can't really make the same arguments for Cornerstone that you do for Wellspring because Cornerstone has functionally no ability if hazards are up and lacks the ability to come into games nearly as often so limiting it is much easier.
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/national-dex-player-surveys.3715235/post-10084804
Results for our most recent survey are here! ^
With the Ogerpon-Wellspring suspect underway, I decided to dust off the almost ancient relic of my YouTube channel and upload a video about my thoughts. As the suspect thread is currently locked, and will be archived after the test is done, I'm posting it here so it can remain visible. Enjoy!