I think she picked Indiana just because it's yellow.
(1)The Finals Coasters versus (6) The Alex Burks World-Beaters
Boston has all the tools to theoretically win a match-up like this, but you know Boston.
Indiana plays fast and drives hard, and that’s not necessarily what Boston is afraid of. They have more than enough tough-minded defensive personnel to switch most things. Boston’s individual defenders
should be comfortable guarding multiple players in transition or switches. The big concern is mostly with Horford. Pull-up shooting from guards like Herro and Mitchel have lit him up these playoffs. Haliburton is along that same archetype although he’s not as hot of a shooter. Indiana can try to prod Horford with speed and see what they come up with. Then there’s Turner, who has been one of the main beneficiaries from Haliburton. Turner/Horford I’d keep an eye on as far as, who is beating who in transition, who is shooting better from three, and who takes more advantages of switches.
To talk more about switches, during the Indiana/New York series, Haliburton struggled mightily when it came to guard/guard screens with Brunson and McBride. Tatum/White/Holiday is a bigger beast, and I’m unsure Haliburton is equipped to handle switches onto forwards or close outs on White/Holiday.
Siakam is another key player on Indiana’s side. If we can expect to Boston switch most things, how is he against potential crossmatches with Tatum/Brown/Holiday/White? Indiana needs a big series from him if they have any hope of standing a chance.
Pace is interesting subject, but not for the reasons I normally think. Boston can play any tempo, but they depend on three-point shooting more than most. If they get into a fast-paced shootout with Indiana, that makes the game have a much higher variance which would play in the favor of Indiana. Will Boston be lead down a path of shooting themselves out four out of seven times?
Boston is the clear favorite but their history and the amount of potential variance in the series makes me hesitant to choose them again. They had good transition defense during the regular season, they have more size, talent, and versatility. So, what’s the problem then? If Boston loses, you’ll see the problem.
Boston wins if: Horford has meaningful minutes over Turner on the floor, Tatum manages the offense efficiently despite any pace. Haliburton is picked on excessively. Holiday/White prove to show great on-ball defense and post-defense. Boston’s versatility in general gives them tools to keep Indiana out the paint.
Indiana wins if: Horford is exploited. Turner is too comfortable around Horford. Indiana’s bench dominates Boston’s bench. Tatum/Brown don’t make good offensive decisions and get sucked into shootouts. Boston just loses the variance three-point battle. Haliburton shows some offensive and defensive chops.
Boston in six.
(5) The Donatellos versus (3) Our Offense is shit but so is yours
Both teams have advantages and disadvantages against each other. Both teams have made tons of adjustments throughout the playoffs. Projecting a playoffs match-up is truly theoretical once again since the regular season meetings are mostly pointless.
I’ll start with the most important early question going into the series: Who will blink first? What I mean by that is, which coach will be the first to put two on the ball? Whoever can establish a winning defensive identity will have an early series advantage. Minnesota may want to try drop coverage and McDaniels/Doncic and Irving/Edwards in single coverage. See if Luka and Kyrie can beat Minnesota one-on-one. On the other side, Dallas may want to see if Edwards and KAT can beat them one-on-one. Whoever decides to involve help first has the early series advantage.
Things should steadily fall into place after that. Dallas does have the privilege of resting Kyrie/Luka on defense since Minnesota only has one exceptional perimeter scorer. If Kyrie/Luka are more comfortable this series simply due to less fatigue, that’s a big deal. Ant can’t be alone with the scoring load, so KAT will need to find his spots be it from doubles or post-ups.
Conley is a good x-factor for Minnesota. He shot a good percentage against Dallas during the regular season (52% FG). The only takeaway you can really use is his ability to sort through Dallas’ help and rotations if/when they do send doubles. He is the only other perimeter player who can punish Dallas for how they cover Ant.
Jones/McDaniels essentially share the same role this series. Whoever can stay out of foul trouble, make more shots, and defend adequately can give their respective team a leg-up.
Other than that, not much more can be taken with a grain of salt until I see how the coaches want to play it out.
Dallas wins if: Kyrie/Luka are comfortable offensively. Dallas stays closer to their team identity defense. Minnesota’s halfcourt offense finally comes back to bite them. KAT/Conley can’t help Edwards out.
Minnesota wins if: Minnesota forces too many turnovers. Minnesota either wins through Luka/Kyrie going one-on-one too much, or role-players like Jones/Green don’t make enough shots. Conley/KAT find their rhythm. Minnesota’s bench is king.
Dallas in six.