I'm still interested but if Paulluxx wants the spot instead of me be my guest, but I'll ask around to see if anyone wants to help expand it to 12.
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Sports NBA Thread: 2023-2024 Season
- Thread starter awyp
- Start date
Yeah lets just find a 12th
Butler would cost you a 2nd fyi
I am currently going through everything. Booker is actually ok to be kept in my mind. While he was kept using a 1st round pick last year, he was a second round pick the year before, so this is the first time he is being attempted to be kept while being a 1st round pick. What the rule attempts to do is prevent a first round pick being kept two years in a row.
There is an issue that Trae Young is being attempted to be kept by the same team, which would also cost a 1st pick, so only one of Booker or Young can be kept. Currently awaiting confirmation on which one the team wants to pick.
Reading the rule again, makes sense
I'm ok with moving the end of season.
Forgot that. Mizuno I'm not gonna have a third keeper cause everyone has shit value
Draft in 1/2 hour. Good luck to everyone. Loser of this keeper league has to take over Finch's job as OUTL (the project management side, not the decision making).
predictions since i have time for tuesday season openers:
lakers vs nuggets: i wouldn't put money on this game, i think it be very close and lakers want revenge and i think this could be a wakeup call for the nuggets to straighten back up to 2peat. lakers
suns vs warriors: im obsessed with cp3 on the warriors idk why, i feel like the team is good, draymond missing might be a problem but i think warriors will find a way to eek out a win
lakers vs nuggets: i wouldn't put money on this game, i think it be very close and lakers want revenge and i think this could be a wakeup call for the nuggets to straighten back up to 2peat. lakers
suns vs warriors: im obsessed with cp3 on the warriors idk why, i feel like the team is good, draymond missing might be a problem but i think warriors will find a way to eek out a win
“I am not interested in that at all.” – Damian Lillard on Freak Time moniker
“There will be a time. When that time is, I don’t know. I don’t know if it’s now, but there will be a time when everybody will get it.” - Lebron James on Denver Nuggets trash talking
“I’m not here to babysit.” – Derrick Rose on joining Memphis
That offseason was active, wasn’t it? Lillard was finally traded, Daryl Morey is a liar, and Wembanyama was drafted to my favorite team.
The NBA season returns with a few new rules. Only one star player can rest per game. This will affect teams with multiple stars and/or stars who are injury prone. How it plays out is anyone’s guess. Will this make teams play their stars more, making games more competitive? Or will this create some internal feuding? The NBA is also going to start dishing out flop fines and introduce the In-Season Tournament in November.
The landscape of the league is in absolute parity. We have had a different NBA champion since 2019, and each final has had a different team from each conference each year. It goes to show how close the same group of contenders have been year after year. Denver winning it all last year in such a smooth fashion also tells me that the modern NBA offense is strong enough to carry average defensive teams to the very end. This season will tell us just how far offensive schematics is compared to defensive schematics.
Franchises didn’t go the route of trying to find the most physical big man to contend with Jokic. Most of the offseason additions for contenders related to perimeter pick-and-roll talent: Damian Lillard, Kristaps Porzingis, Chris Paul, Quin Snyder, Bradley Beal; the field essentially declared Jokic impossible to guard, and that it’s better to score along with him by forcing him to guard in space as much as possible.
Most Valuable Player: My pick is Anthony Edwards. A bit of a dark horse. When I read his quotes about last year’s playoffs and Team USA, this guy is serious about becoming the face of the NBA. He has greatly improved in decision-making over the course of the Summer.
Runner up: Tatum, Jokic, Giannis
Rookie of the Year: Victory Wembanyama. This can still be close with Holmgren and Henderson.
Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis. This is tough, but I don’t trust Jackson Jr. to do as well without another good big man. He had Adams last year. I’d put Giannis here too, but he might win MVP. If Davis can last at least 60+ games, he should be able to win this if he was already the defensive player of the last playoffs.
Runner ups: Wembanyama, Giannis
Coach of the Year: Minnesota and Edwards jumping up in the standings obviously follow with their coach winning this award. I pretty much looked at teams I thought would be the most surprising.
Runner ups: Carlisle, Snyder
Sixth Man of the Year: Jrue Holiday or Derrick White. Whichever Boston decides who comes off the bench.
Runner ups: Malik Monk
Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxie. Harden leaving means Maxie gets more responsibility and trust. For Philadelphia to stay relevant, they need Maxie to improvement substantially.
Runner ups: Jordan Poole, Mikal Bridges, Austin Reaves
Edit: Spoiler tag is always a bit of a mess with me but w/e. I'll figure it out later.
“There will be a time. When that time is, I don’t know. I don’t know if it’s now, but there will be a time when everybody will get it.” - Lebron James on Denver Nuggets trash talking
“I’m not here to babysit.” – Derrick Rose on joining Memphis
That offseason was active, wasn’t it? Lillard was finally traded, Daryl Morey is a liar, and Wembanyama was drafted to my favorite team.
The NBA season returns with a few new rules. Only one star player can rest per game. This will affect teams with multiple stars and/or stars who are injury prone. How it plays out is anyone’s guess. Will this make teams play their stars more, making games more competitive? Or will this create some internal feuding? The NBA is also going to start dishing out flop fines and introduce the In-Season Tournament in November.
The landscape of the league is in absolute parity. We have had a different NBA champion since 2019, and each final has had a different team from each conference each year. It goes to show how close the same group of contenders have been year after year. Denver winning it all last year in such a smooth fashion also tells me that the modern NBA offense is strong enough to carry average defensive teams to the very end. This season will tell us just how far offensive schematics is compared to defensive schematics.
Franchises didn’t go the route of trying to find the most physical big man to contend with Jokic. Most of the offseason additions for contenders related to perimeter pick-and-roll talent: Damian Lillard, Kristaps Porzingis, Chris Paul, Quin Snyder, Bradley Beal; the field essentially declared Jokic impossible to guard, and that it’s better to score along with him by forcing him to guard in space as much as possible.
San Antonio Spurs
Denver Nuggets
Phoenix Suns
Los Angeles Lakers
Denver Nuggets
Phoenix Suns
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio are 2024 Champions. Wemby gets Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a championship his first season.
…. What? Let me have my fanboy moment at least one of these years.
Okay, for real:
Denver Nuggets
Phoenix Suns
Los Angeles Lakers
These are probably everybody’s contenders from the West, so it makes sense to bank on them being most likely to earn a stop seed. Denver should maintain their offensive punch despite the loss of Brown Jr. If Porter Jr., Braun and or any other young guy on this team develop in a significant way, they should be fine. Malone can also stagger Porter Jr. off the bench to replace Brown Jr. ’s scoring. With Murray starting off fresh and healthy, I can’t imagine Denver loses their western conference dominance over the other teams.
Phoenix is the other team most likely to get the top seed. Their offense should be near unstoppable. Concerns over point guard roles don’t matter to me; they were whipping the ball in preseason, and Nurkic has better passing IQ than Ayton. Beal’s passing and decision-making are also underrated. Frontcourt defense is what people should be thinking about with this team. Vogel can be trusted to make a competent defense with what’s available. He proved it with Los Angeles a few years ago. All he needs is a couple of defensive-minded players to fit in with the big three, and they have a ton of options. There are concerns regarding frontcourt depth, and Nurkic has been injury prone the last couple of years. They still have enough guys to offer a trade package in the event they need a serviceable center or two. Otherwise, if Durant, Booker, and Beal play at least half of their games, this team should be among the top of the west.
Lakers have a good argument for a top seed if we examine their record post the trade deadline last season. 17-9 would translate to an easy #1 seed if that maps out for an entire season, and they managed to do much of that without LeBron. As always, everything hinges on Davis’s health and conditioning. The depth behind LeBron and Davis is also finally solid. Reaves had a great Team USA stint, and provides defense, point-guard play, and scoring. That takes so much pressure off LeBron which hasn’t been the case the past few seasons. Vincent is a starting quality point guard although I will say undrafted players that leave Miami tend to underperform due to Miami’s ecosystem relying heavy on team play. I’m not a fan of the Wood addition due to his defense but we’ll see how he fits alongside Davis. The Lakers are lacking size behind Davis, and I hope they find at least one good bruiser type of center to take pressure off him. 2020 was one of Davis’ best seasons because he had adequate center help from Dwight Howard. Same thing for 2018 when he had Cousins in New Orleans. The only reason I find them least likely to have a top seed compared to the other two is that I’m hard-pressed to believe Davis can carry this defense for a whole season well enough to give them a top seed. If he does? He’s definitely Defensive Player of the Year.
Minnesota Timberwolves
I predict Minnesota to make one of the largest leaps primarily because of Edward’s play on Team USA. I’ve always been a big believer in Team USA translating to the NBA immediately. Last year, Minnesota’s defense wasn’t the issue; it was its offense with KAT and Gobert on the floor together. I predict that with Edward’s offensive leap, it should at least make the KAT/Gobert fit easier have on the court. If it’s still clunky a second go-around, they can always trade KAT before the deadline. This team will enjoy the eventual return of McDaniels’ defense and shooting. Milton and Brown Jr. are also great depth and additional shooting. With Edward’s improvement on offense and defense, all they need now is an offensive identity that can make KAT/Gobert work.
Golden State Warriors
Golden State’s addition of Paul has surprisingly worked very well for them thus far. He has great offensive chemistry with Curry, Looney, and Kuminga. Having stellar point-guard play and decision-making where Curry can play off the ball is a massive improvement over Poole. Paul has consistently improved teams and young players around him by simply joining. Golden State’s place in the West will largely depend on a couple of things. For one, Paul has an injury history, and if he’s out for an extended period, Golden State’s in trouble when it comes to guard depth. The other factor is the development of Kuminga. This team needs all the athleticism help it can get out of its aging big three, and now with a 38-year-old Chris Paul. They lack size, athleticism, and have an injury prone key guard. If they can find a way to maintain a small-ball structured defense with the aging core and offenses targeting Paul, they should make the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is on the rise. Last year, they had a net rating of 1.1 and league average offense and defense. This year, Holmgren will begin the season as a "rookie" and has all the motivation to try to beat Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year. Remember, they had a decent defense without a real rim protector. Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a strong Team Canada performance. The team has a bit of continuity going for it, and their defensive rotations and smarts are exceptional for their ages. I'll be shocked if Oklahoma City didn't improve from last year with so much potential for upsides in almost all areas. They lacked consistent good shooting and playmaking last season, but I trust a young team to figure it out if they already figured out how to be a collective defensive unit. The culture set here is perfect for a rising team similar to the Durant/Harden/Westbrook days.
New Orleans
Sacramento Kings
Los Angeles Clippers
Dallas Mavericks
Memphis Grizzlies
This group I’m considering to be part of a chaotic finish for the playoffs. All is dependent on injury status, internal improvement from unsuspecting players, and however the trade market goes.
New Orleans is a team loaded with question marks due to Zion missing time each season. Baby mama drama might be enough to finally get his act together with his conditioning, and if that’s the case, New Orleans are easily in contention for the playoffs.
We haven’t seen Zion, CJ, and Ingram share the floor too much. They’ve shared the floor only for 172 minutes outscoring opponent by 60 points. That sounds promising. They also have Trey Murphy recovering and being inserted in those lineups as a true glue guy. CJ’s shooting improves when the pressure to create is off of him and more toward Ingram/Williamson. Their stars might share the same injury history with the Clippers stars, but at least their team is younger. If they can get ONE good season from Ingram or Williamson, they are able to at least maintain course in the West. One good season from both is even better although less likely. I’ll bank on the odds that they at least get one of those guys to play and finally get the surrounding cast confident enough to be good without one key guy. These past few years have helped the team grow because they are so accustomed to playing without their stars compared to the teams around them. They’re in better shape than most if they have injury setbacks.
Sacramento was the NBA darling for fans last season surprising us all and proving me horribly wrong about their regular season. One thing I do want to point out however is that Sacramento had one of the healthiest rosters last season. Their most played players collectively missed the least games among top teams. Many teams last year had certain situations you could argue complicated their standings: Golden State, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns; just about every team had a health or locker room reason to underperform throughout the regular season.
How much did Sacramento benefit versus getting internally better? That will determine their place in the West this year, and I lean toward them regressing more than maintaining. Their offense is enough to keep them in the hunt for the playoffs, and Fox might have another level of play in him. It’s not enough for me to feel confident in another top seed however. I think a healthier, improved West slightly shakes them up from the top seed. The 00s Phoenix Suns proved offensive-first teams have strong regular season performances. I’m just wary about how much of last year was about health rather than talent.
Who are the Clippers? An aging veteran team with two injury prone wings, two consistent regular seasons of a 0 net rating, and Russel Westbrook. Kawhi has not shown real defensive chops for quite some time, this roster is essentially the same, and the only swing factors to me are Westbrook and health. Westbrook hasn’t had a training camp and a full season with this team, but if he can play like he did in the playoffs, that’s a plus. He’s also not shot a sIngle pull-up jumper in preseason. Play defense, attack the rim hard, shoot less pull-up jumpers are just what the Lakers originally wanted. However, I still don’t place this team high because not only are Leonard and George getting older and playing less games, but so is the surrounding cast. I don’t even think a Harden trade makes up for much. They’re better in the playoffs when it comes to scheming but the regular season has been an uphill battle for consecutive years. They need to find a true point guard or a way to get younger. Otherwise, count me out of giving them any hope until I see it.
Dallas threw their only defense away for Kyrie Irving and fell in the standings very rapidly last year. In the offseason, they acquire Exum and Williams as some decent defensive upgrades at the guard and forward, and Josh Green could also develop more defensively. How much are you willing to bet on one of those three making them at least an average defensive team? Yes, Denver and Sacremento proves great offense can net you a top seed, however, Luka and Kyrie can score all they want, but they need rebounding and defense to have any hopes of improving. They also lose McGee, a center who at least had the body and experience, and are now left with Powell and a rookie for frontcourt minutes. They may improve, but I don’t anticipate them improving vastly better than the teams around their range. Williams being a defense difference maker and shotmaker is a bet I’m hesitant about, and a rookie center not having growing pains defensively is unheard of. This team needs time and losses to grow defensively. The play-in is their likely destination so as long as the surrounding cast has shaky defensive history outside of some young athletic guys with potential.
Memphis contains many moving parts. They will miss Morant for 25 games, and they were a bottom third offensive team without him last season. Out goes Jones, and in comes Smart and Rose. Memphis still plays well without Morant, but I’d argue much of that had to do with the steady and stable point-guard play of Jones. Smart is a better overall player than Jones, but how will the fit look? The three-point shooting has me a bit concerned as well. Jones was one of their better shooters, so you must wonder who replaces him. Smart is inconsistent from the outside but can still be reliable in running an offense.
Losing Adams is a huge blow for a team that had some of the best rebounding stats last year to augment poor outside shooting. Jackson Jr. is unable to man a defense on his own at Center evident of Team USA’s results. I expect them to somewhat float around 6-10 depending on how well their defense compensates for their lack of shooting and half-court offense. It’s just not looking good for them depth wise; especially after last season’s shit talking. The league is looking for revenge on Memphis and they are the most vulnerable they’ve ever been in the Morant era.
San Antonio Spurs
Wemby is a two-way monster from the get-go, and his preseason looked extremely promising for the future. Popovich confirmed the starting lineup to include: Sochan, Vassell, Wembanyama, Collins, and Johnson. San Antonio is going back to its old defensive ways by valuing length. Can this team potentially sniff an above average defense and offense carried by a rookie? Best case scenario, but I expect growing pains especially if Sochan is expected to be the point. I’ll trust Popovich’s future vision of offense. They should have a solid defense to not be absolutely bad, but a play-in appearance is the most optimistic level of achievement one can hope for.
…. What? Let me have my fanboy moment at least one of these years.
Okay, for real:
Denver Nuggets
Phoenix Suns
Los Angeles Lakers
These are probably everybody’s contenders from the West, so it makes sense to bank on them being most likely to earn a stop seed. Denver should maintain their offensive punch despite the loss of Brown Jr. If Porter Jr., Braun and or any other young guy on this team develop in a significant way, they should be fine. Malone can also stagger Porter Jr. off the bench to replace Brown Jr. ’s scoring. With Murray starting off fresh and healthy, I can’t imagine Denver loses their western conference dominance over the other teams.
Phoenix is the other team most likely to get the top seed. Their offense should be near unstoppable. Concerns over point guard roles don’t matter to me; they were whipping the ball in preseason, and Nurkic has better passing IQ than Ayton. Beal’s passing and decision-making are also underrated. Frontcourt defense is what people should be thinking about with this team. Vogel can be trusted to make a competent defense with what’s available. He proved it with Los Angeles a few years ago. All he needs is a couple of defensive-minded players to fit in with the big three, and they have a ton of options. There are concerns regarding frontcourt depth, and Nurkic has been injury prone the last couple of years. They still have enough guys to offer a trade package in the event they need a serviceable center or two. Otherwise, if Durant, Booker, and Beal play at least half of their games, this team should be among the top of the west.
Lakers have a good argument for a top seed if we examine their record post the trade deadline last season. 17-9 would translate to an easy #1 seed if that maps out for an entire season, and they managed to do much of that without LeBron. As always, everything hinges on Davis’s health and conditioning. The depth behind LeBron and Davis is also finally solid. Reaves had a great Team USA stint, and provides defense, point-guard play, and scoring. That takes so much pressure off LeBron which hasn’t been the case the past few seasons. Vincent is a starting quality point guard although I will say undrafted players that leave Miami tend to underperform due to Miami’s ecosystem relying heavy on team play. I’m not a fan of the Wood addition due to his defense but we’ll see how he fits alongside Davis. The Lakers are lacking size behind Davis, and I hope they find at least one good bruiser type of center to take pressure off him. 2020 was one of Davis’ best seasons because he had adequate center help from Dwight Howard. Same thing for 2018 when he had Cousins in New Orleans. The only reason I find them least likely to have a top seed compared to the other two is that I’m hard-pressed to believe Davis can carry this defense for a whole season well enough to give them a top seed. If he does? He’s definitely Defensive Player of the Year.
Minnesota Timberwolves
I predict Minnesota to make one of the largest leaps primarily because of Edward’s play on Team USA. I’ve always been a big believer in Team USA translating to the NBA immediately. Last year, Minnesota’s defense wasn’t the issue; it was its offense with KAT and Gobert on the floor together. I predict that with Edward’s offensive leap, it should at least make the KAT/Gobert fit easier have on the court. If it’s still clunky a second go-around, they can always trade KAT before the deadline. This team will enjoy the eventual return of McDaniels’ defense and shooting. Milton and Brown Jr. are also great depth and additional shooting. With Edward’s improvement on offense and defense, all they need now is an offensive identity that can make KAT/Gobert work.
Golden State Warriors
Golden State’s addition of Paul has surprisingly worked very well for them thus far. He has great offensive chemistry with Curry, Looney, and Kuminga. Having stellar point-guard play and decision-making where Curry can play off the ball is a massive improvement over Poole. Paul has consistently improved teams and young players around him by simply joining. Golden State’s place in the West will largely depend on a couple of things. For one, Paul has an injury history, and if he’s out for an extended period, Golden State’s in trouble when it comes to guard depth. The other factor is the development of Kuminga. This team needs all the athleticism help it can get out of its aging big three, and now with a 38-year-old Chris Paul. They lack size, athleticism, and have an injury prone key guard. If they can find a way to maintain a small-ball structured defense with the aging core and offenses targeting Paul, they should make the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is on the rise. Last year, they had a net rating of 1.1 and league average offense and defense. This year, Holmgren will begin the season as a "rookie" and has all the motivation to try to beat Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year. Remember, they had a decent defense without a real rim protector. Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a strong Team Canada performance. The team has a bit of continuity going for it, and their defensive rotations and smarts are exceptional for their ages. I'll be shocked if Oklahoma City didn't improve from last year with so much potential for upsides in almost all areas. They lacked consistent good shooting and playmaking last season, but I trust a young team to figure it out if they already figured out how to be a collective defensive unit. The culture set here is perfect for a rising team similar to the Durant/Harden/Westbrook days.
New Orleans
Sacramento Kings
Los Angeles Clippers
Dallas Mavericks
Memphis Grizzlies
This group I’m considering to be part of a chaotic finish for the playoffs. All is dependent on injury status, internal improvement from unsuspecting players, and however the trade market goes.
New Orleans is a team loaded with question marks due to Zion missing time each season. Baby mama drama might be enough to finally get his act together with his conditioning, and if that’s the case, New Orleans are easily in contention for the playoffs.
We haven’t seen Zion, CJ, and Ingram share the floor too much. They’ve shared the floor only for 172 minutes outscoring opponent by 60 points. That sounds promising. They also have Trey Murphy recovering and being inserted in those lineups as a true glue guy. CJ’s shooting improves when the pressure to create is off of him and more toward Ingram/Williamson. Their stars might share the same injury history with the Clippers stars, but at least their team is younger. If they can get ONE good season from Ingram or Williamson, they are able to at least maintain course in the West. One good season from both is even better although less likely. I’ll bank on the odds that they at least get one of those guys to play and finally get the surrounding cast confident enough to be good without one key guy. These past few years have helped the team grow because they are so accustomed to playing without their stars compared to the teams around them. They’re in better shape than most if they have injury setbacks.
Sacramento was the NBA darling for fans last season surprising us all and proving me horribly wrong about their regular season. One thing I do want to point out however is that Sacramento had one of the healthiest rosters last season. Their most played players collectively missed the least games among top teams. Many teams last year had certain situations you could argue complicated their standings: Golden State, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns; just about every team had a health or locker room reason to underperform throughout the regular season.
How much did Sacramento benefit versus getting internally better? That will determine their place in the West this year, and I lean toward them regressing more than maintaining. Their offense is enough to keep them in the hunt for the playoffs, and Fox might have another level of play in him. It’s not enough for me to feel confident in another top seed however. I think a healthier, improved West slightly shakes them up from the top seed. The 00s Phoenix Suns proved offensive-first teams have strong regular season performances. I’m just wary about how much of last year was about health rather than talent.
Who are the Clippers? An aging veteran team with two injury prone wings, two consistent regular seasons of a 0 net rating, and Russel Westbrook. Kawhi has not shown real defensive chops for quite some time, this roster is essentially the same, and the only swing factors to me are Westbrook and health. Westbrook hasn’t had a training camp and a full season with this team, but if he can play like he did in the playoffs, that’s a plus. He’s also not shot a sIngle pull-up jumper in preseason. Play defense, attack the rim hard, shoot less pull-up jumpers are just what the Lakers originally wanted. However, I still don’t place this team high because not only are Leonard and George getting older and playing less games, but so is the surrounding cast. I don’t even think a Harden trade makes up for much. They’re better in the playoffs when it comes to scheming but the regular season has been an uphill battle for consecutive years. They need to find a true point guard or a way to get younger. Otherwise, count me out of giving them any hope until I see it.
Dallas threw their only defense away for Kyrie Irving and fell in the standings very rapidly last year. In the offseason, they acquire Exum and Williams as some decent defensive upgrades at the guard and forward, and Josh Green could also develop more defensively. How much are you willing to bet on one of those three making them at least an average defensive team? Yes, Denver and Sacremento proves great offense can net you a top seed, however, Luka and Kyrie can score all they want, but they need rebounding and defense to have any hopes of improving. They also lose McGee, a center who at least had the body and experience, and are now left with Powell and a rookie for frontcourt minutes. They may improve, but I don’t anticipate them improving vastly better than the teams around their range. Williams being a defense difference maker and shotmaker is a bet I’m hesitant about, and a rookie center not having growing pains defensively is unheard of. This team needs time and losses to grow defensively. The play-in is their likely destination so as long as the surrounding cast has shaky defensive history outside of some young athletic guys with potential.
Memphis contains many moving parts. They will miss Morant for 25 games, and they were a bottom third offensive team without him last season. Out goes Jones, and in comes Smart and Rose. Memphis still plays well without Morant, but I’d argue much of that had to do with the steady and stable point-guard play of Jones. Smart is a better overall player than Jones, but how will the fit look? The three-point shooting has me a bit concerned as well. Jones was one of their better shooters, so you must wonder who replaces him. Smart is inconsistent from the outside but can still be reliable in running an offense.
Losing Adams is a huge blow for a team that had some of the best rebounding stats last year to augment poor outside shooting. Jackson Jr. is unable to man a defense on his own at Center evident of Team USA’s results. I expect them to somewhat float around 6-10 depending on how well their defense compensates for their lack of shooting and half-court offense. It’s just not looking good for them depth wise; especially after last season’s shit talking. The league is looking for revenge on Memphis and they are the most vulnerable they’ve ever been in the Morant era.
San Antonio Spurs
Wemby is a two-way monster from the get-go, and his preseason looked extremely promising for the future. Popovich confirmed the starting lineup to include: Sochan, Vassell, Wembanyama, Collins, and Johnson. San Antonio is going back to its old defensive ways by valuing length. Can this team potentially sniff an above average defense and offense carried by a rookie? Best case scenario, but I expect growing pains especially if Sochan is expected to be the point. I’ll trust Popovich’s future vision of offense. They should have a solid defense to not be absolutely bad, but a play-in appearance is the most optimistic level of achievement one can hope for.
Boston Celtics
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
Boston and Milwaukee are inarguably the best teams from the East. Lillard/Antetekoumpo is shaping up to be the best duo since Shaq/Kobe. Porzingis appears to be a seamless fit between the two versatile wings Tatum/Brown. I lean toward Boston having a better regular season over Milwaukee. Tatum has worked with Paul Pierce during the Summer and added 12 pounds of muscle. This signals to me that he’s taking his game seriously, and if he flirts with an MVP campaign, Boston will certainly be the best they’ve looked in the past few years.
Milwaukee will be plenty strong too. Their defense takes a hit at point of attack, but playoff offense took priority for them. How far will they fall defensively determines their success. They still have Giannis, Lopez, and Middleton. They should maintain at least an above average defense with a historic offense which still nets you as a contender so as long as Lillard and Giannis remain healthy. Only problem is, there’s expected to be more growing pains with this team. In fact, they’ve had a few before the season began. Stotts, the assistant coach and former head coach of Lillard, stepped down. They have a rookie head coach, a major roster shakeup, and Lillard is going through a hard divorce. The complete version of this time likely won’t be until further down the line as I’m doubtful they’ll have a big regular season due to all the changes in personnel and planning. I’m not suggesting there’s already trouble, it’s just very rare to send it this early.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland was a great regular season team last season sporting a top 3 defense. They added shooters to try to shore up their spacing and offense which became a major issue in the playoffs. Niang allows Mobley to have more minutes at Center, and Strus gives them a chance to have a wingman shoot reliably off the catch to open it up for Mitchel and Garland. Whether this team touches contender status is largely dependent on Mobley for me. We saw what happened in the playoffs: he can’t do much offensively next to a non-shooting big. Is he going to shoot more outside? Post up? Any offense Mobley adds can only fuel Cleveland closer to contender status. All they’re truly missing is more reliable shooting to go along with their fortified defense. I’d even go as far as to think if Cleveland can find a way to create stretches of Mobley at Center successful, they’ll have very little to worry about in winning games most nights.
Atlanta Hawks
Philadelphia Sixers
New York Knicks
Indiana Pacers
This group contains more of your middling Eastern conference teams.
Atlanta has more reason to cheer than most East teams. Snyder is a proven guy with modern NBA offense. He once gave Utah one of the best modern offenses during the Mitchel era, so he's very comfortable coaching scoring guards. Removing Collins simplifies their offense significantly into a pace-and-space, kick and drive movement offense. Lineups will now have guys like Bey and Hunter playing power forward and allowing more space for Young and Murray to operate on the perimeter. This is despite them not being a good offensive fit together overall, but perhaps Snyder can finally install an offense where they both play off the ball finally. It'll certainly help this team improve and reach a plateau that could potentially bring them to a top seed. Either way, the removal of Collins and the addition of Snyder gives them a potential chance to have a winning team identity. If it doesn't work this time, Young was always the problem.
Philadelphia is in no man’s land right now. There’s almost nothing one can truly project when dealing with Harden. He can truly destroy that locker room to the point of getting Embiid traded. I don’t think they miss out entirely because they still have talent, but it’s hard to envision an upward trend with them. Oubre Jr. Is nice and Maxie is perfectly capable of being a No. 2 option, but that’s not enough for the steep rising tides around the NBA. Unless they get something good for Harden, they can’t move anywhere but down. I can’t put much faith in a team losing its best passer from last season. Passing has historically been this team’s Achilles heel.
New York was good enough to beat the regular season beast Cleveland, so it’d be a tragedy for them not to at least maintain. One has to wonder if Barrett has any more growth left. His upside is one of the few swing factors for me. Quickley can try again for 6th man of the year perhaps with improvement. Add a little continuity, and they appear stable in the middle of the East. I don’t project any serious rise mostly because Thibs doesn’t seem apt to succeed against modern NBA offense. They are in a serious need to find easier ways to score and shoot.
Indiana is projected to make a jump from last year. Haliburton is the best guard no one talks about who plays at an incredibly fast yet controlled pace. The additions in Brown Jr. and Toppin create more offensive weapons at his disposal. Brown Jr. excels in off ball movement with talented playmakers while Toppin was misused by New York as he’s one of the fastest, young rim-running bigs. Turner is veteran glue guy in the locker room along with being a great rim protector, rim-runner, outside shooter, and perimeter defender. They got a lot of young guys who still need development but I feel pretty good about a young, fast team under the hands of Haliburton, Carlisle, and Turner as the brains. They certainly have a chance for a top seed if things come together seamlessly, but I fully expect a playoff berth from Indiana. Their group have all the ingredients of a team on the rise.
Miami Heat
I don’t even want to attempt to use any stats to think about Miami. They always seem to defy them completely, whether being completely bad despite looking good, or being completely good despite being bad.
Their playoff run was a bit streaky in the sense that their role guys shot way above their averages. Even if we want to assume those guys could replicate those performances, they lost Vincent and Struss in the offseason which significantly depleted their wings. Herro, the only other experienced guard they have, was in trade talks all Summer. I can only imagine how much that potentially ruptures his relationship with the organization considering Heat Culture is centered around comradery.
So, their only experienced point guard is Lowry who will be 38 next Spring. If he’s injured, they have Dru Smith, a sophomore from Brooklyn. Point guard duties over the course of the regular season are now in jeopardy, and that puts even more pressure on Butler and Adabeyo offensively.
This team likely regressed, had a pretty debilitating offseason as an organization, and Butler is another year older. They have very little trade assets to improve. I don’t see them becoming a top seed at all, and they’ll likely scare people into thinking they’ll be in the play-in again. The East is getting faster, younger and more talented offensively. Miami’s ability to stay relevant in the East should be put to question this year unless they start off hot.
Brooklyn Nets
Orlando Magic
Chicago Bulls
Charlotte Hornets
Brooklyn may have been swept from the playoffs, but I’d argue it was matchup related. Brooklyn can potentially be one of the stoutest defensive teams with all their length and switchability, but will crumble to any big, dominating center. They remind me a lot of Toronto after Kawhi left in that they have a solid defensive group that just needs enough offense to stay competitive. Simmons can help with that if he’s for real and that can certainly bolster their chances to at least the 4-6 range. Even with Simmons, great defense and young talented scorers is enough to be competitive in the East; at least slightly more than the teams I feel are below them.
Orlando is very young and talented. Banchero won Rookie of the Year last season. The Wagners Brothers won Germany a Gold Medal over the Summer. Isaac may finally make a return as he’s still an important defensive piece, and Orlando already achieved a 16th defensive rating last season without him. They just need an offensive identity to make the playoffs. Cole will likely be traded, Ingles will school the young playmakers, and Fultz has already grown more mature offensively the past couple of years. Like Indiana, there’s a recipe here for a jump and it’s just a matter of how high Banchero and Wagner can go offensively. Ingles is really the addition I anticipate to matter the most for this team’s offensive identity. Expect Orlando to be one of the teams vying for a playoff spot.
Chicago and Charlotte feel a bit of the same to me, with Charlotte having more upside since LaMelo was injured last season. Chicago carries a bit more stability and continuity but they feel closer to their pleatau than Charlotte. Charlotte also has to worry about the void Bridges leaves if his situation is assumed to be irreconcilable with the team. Ultimately, I don’t feel as good about these two compared to the teams above them. No significant offseason changes and they require a lot of good things to happen at once to be any higher than they were in the past. Not many teams that were above them are noticeably worse.
Milwaukee will be plenty strong too. Their defense takes a hit at point of attack, but playoff offense took priority for them. How far will they fall defensively determines their success. They still have Giannis, Lopez, and Middleton. They should maintain at least an above average defense with a historic offense which still nets you as a contender so as long as Lillard and Giannis remain healthy. Only problem is, there’s expected to be more growing pains with this team. In fact, they’ve had a few before the season began. Stotts, the assistant coach and former head coach of Lillard, stepped down. They have a rookie head coach, a major roster shakeup, and Lillard is going through a hard divorce. The complete version of this time likely won’t be until further down the line as I’m doubtful they’ll have a big regular season due to all the changes in personnel and planning. I’m not suggesting there’s already trouble, it’s just very rare to send it this early.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland was a great regular season team last season sporting a top 3 defense. They added shooters to try to shore up their spacing and offense which became a major issue in the playoffs. Niang allows Mobley to have more minutes at Center, and Strus gives them a chance to have a wingman shoot reliably off the catch to open it up for Mitchel and Garland. Whether this team touches contender status is largely dependent on Mobley for me. We saw what happened in the playoffs: he can’t do much offensively next to a non-shooting big. Is he going to shoot more outside? Post up? Any offense Mobley adds can only fuel Cleveland closer to contender status. All they’re truly missing is more reliable shooting to go along with their fortified defense. I’d even go as far as to think if Cleveland can find a way to create stretches of Mobley at Center successful, they’ll have very little to worry about in winning games most nights.
Atlanta Hawks
Philadelphia Sixers
New York Knicks
Indiana Pacers
This group contains more of your middling Eastern conference teams.
Atlanta has more reason to cheer than most East teams. Snyder is a proven guy with modern NBA offense. He once gave Utah one of the best modern offenses during the Mitchel era, so he's very comfortable coaching scoring guards. Removing Collins simplifies their offense significantly into a pace-and-space, kick and drive movement offense. Lineups will now have guys like Bey and Hunter playing power forward and allowing more space for Young and Murray to operate on the perimeter. This is despite them not being a good offensive fit together overall, but perhaps Snyder can finally install an offense where they both play off the ball finally. It'll certainly help this team improve and reach a plateau that could potentially bring them to a top seed. Either way, the removal of Collins and the addition of Snyder gives them a potential chance to have a winning team identity. If it doesn't work this time, Young was always the problem.
Philadelphia is in no man’s land right now. There’s almost nothing one can truly project when dealing with Harden. He can truly destroy that locker room to the point of getting Embiid traded. I don’t think they miss out entirely because they still have talent, but it’s hard to envision an upward trend with them. Oubre Jr. Is nice and Maxie is perfectly capable of being a No. 2 option, but that’s not enough for the steep rising tides around the NBA. Unless they get something good for Harden, they can’t move anywhere but down. I can’t put much faith in a team losing its best passer from last season. Passing has historically been this team’s Achilles heel.
New York was good enough to beat the regular season beast Cleveland, so it’d be a tragedy for them not to at least maintain. One has to wonder if Barrett has any more growth left. His upside is one of the few swing factors for me. Quickley can try again for 6th man of the year perhaps with improvement. Add a little continuity, and they appear stable in the middle of the East. I don’t project any serious rise mostly because Thibs doesn’t seem apt to succeed against modern NBA offense. They are in a serious need to find easier ways to score and shoot.
Indiana is projected to make a jump from last year. Haliburton is the best guard no one talks about who plays at an incredibly fast yet controlled pace. The additions in Brown Jr. and Toppin create more offensive weapons at his disposal. Brown Jr. excels in off ball movement with talented playmakers while Toppin was misused by New York as he’s one of the fastest, young rim-running bigs. Turner is veteran glue guy in the locker room along with being a great rim protector, rim-runner, outside shooter, and perimeter defender. They got a lot of young guys who still need development but I feel pretty good about a young, fast team under the hands of Haliburton, Carlisle, and Turner as the brains. They certainly have a chance for a top seed if things come together seamlessly, but I fully expect a playoff berth from Indiana. Their group have all the ingredients of a team on the rise.
Miami Heat
I don’t even want to attempt to use any stats to think about Miami. They always seem to defy them completely, whether being completely bad despite looking good, or being completely good despite being bad.
Their playoff run was a bit streaky in the sense that their role guys shot way above their averages. Even if we want to assume those guys could replicate those performances, they lost Vincent and Struss in the offseason which significantly depleted their wings. Herro, the only other experienced guard they have, was in trade talks all Summer. I can only imagine how much that potentially ruptures his relationship with the organization considering Heat Culture is centered around comradery.
So, their only experienced point guard is Lowry who will be 38 next Spring. If he’s injured, they have Dru Smith, a sophomore from Brooklyn. Point guard duties over the course of the regular season are now in jeopardy, and that puts even more pressure on Butler and Adabeyo offensively.
This team likely regressed, had a pretty debilitating offseason as an organization, and Butler is another year older. They have very little trade assets to improve. I don’t see them becoming a top seed at all, and they’ll likely scare people into thinking they’ll be in the play-in again. The East is getting faster, younger and more talented offensively. Miami’s ability to stay relevant in the East should be put to question this year unless they start off hot.
Brooklyn Nets
Orlando Magic
Chicago Bulls
Charlotte Hornets
Brooklyn may have been swept from the playoffs, but I’d argue it was matchup related. Brooklyn can potentially be one of the stoutest defensive teams with all their length and switchability, but will crumble to any big, dominating center. They remind me a lot of Toronto after Kawhi left in that they have a solid defensive group that just needs enough offense to stay competitive. Simmons can help with that if he’s for real and that can certainly bolster their chances to at least the 4-6 range. Even with Simmons, great defense and young talented scorers is enough to be competitive in the East; at least slightly more than the teams I feel are below them.
Orlando is very young and talented. Banchero won Rookie of the Year last season. The Wagners Brothers won Germany a Gold Medal over the Summer. Isaac may finally make a return as he’s still an important defensive piece, and Orlando already achieved a 16th defensive rating last season without him. They just need an offensive identity to make the playoffs. Cole will likely be traded, Ingles will school the young playmakers, and Fultz has already grown more mature offensively the past couple of years. Like Indiana, there’s a recipe here for a jump and it’s just a matter of how high Banchero and Wagner can go offensively. Ingles is really the addition I anticipate to matter the most for this team’s offensive identity. Expect Orlando to be one of the teams vying for a playoff spot.
Chicago and Charlotte feel a bit of the same to me, with Charlotte having more upside since LaMelo was injured last season. Chicago carries a bit more stability and continuity but they feel closer to their pleatau than Charlotte. Charlotte also has to worry about the void Bridges leaves if his situation is assumed to be irreconcilable with the team. Ultimately, I don’t feel as good about these two compared to the teams above them. No significant offseason changes and they require a lot of good things to happen at once to be any higher than they were in the past. Not many teams that were above them are noticeably worse.
Most Valuable Player: My pick is Anthony Edwards. A bit of a dark horse. When I read his quotes about last year’s playoffs and Team USA, this guy is serious about becoming the face of the NBA. He has greatly improved in decision-making over the course of the Summer.
Runner up: Tatum, Jokic, Giannis
Rookie of the Year: Victory Wembanyama. This can still be close with Holmgren and Henderson.
Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis. This is tough, but I don’t trust Jackson Jr. to do as well without another good big man. He had Adams last year. I’d put Giannis here too, but he might win MVP. If Davis can last at least 60+ games, he should be able to win this if he was already the defensive player of the last playoffs.
Runner ups: Wembanyama, Giannis
Coach of the Year: Minnesota and Edwards jumping up in the standings obviously follow with their coach winning this award. I pretty much looked at teams I thought would be the most surprising.
Runner ups: Carlisle, Snyder
Sixth Man of the Year: Jrue Holiday or Derrick White. Whichever Boston decides who comes off the bench.
Runner ups: Malik Monk
Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxie. Harden leaving means Maxie gets more responsibility and trust. For Philadelphia to stay relevant, they need Maxie to improvement substantially.
Runner ups: Jordan Poole, Mikal Bridges, Austin Reaves
Edit: Spoiler tag is always a bit of a mess with me but w/e. I'll figure it out later.
The one year I chose Davis to be DPoY he gets one rebound in a half
My jaws dropped before I saw 0 rebounds im like what's going on? lol
I do sort’ve agree except for the fact Wemby played 10 less minutes and has only a slightly less impressive statsheet. Lively coming off of the bench for game 1 was almost certainly a mistake.
Lively has the advantage of being a roll guy to one of the best players in the league. Still impressive though to get that kind of praise and trust from Luka day one.
Wemby had an overall okay debut. He needs to learn how to not foul by adjusting his body to the NBA's speed.
Wemby had an overall okay debut. He needs to learn how to not foul by adjusting his body to the NBA's speed.
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Zest of Life
Banned deucer.
A very thorough and well-written analysis!
Agreed that Milwaukee and Boston are the two strongest teams in the East. I’m definitely interested in seeing how Boston’s team chemistry develops with the loss of Smart and Timelord. Their opener against the Knicks was fun to watch, Zingis definitely balled out.
As for the Western Conference, the Nuggets are the clear favorites and I don’t see any team beating them in a playoff series. The Suns are very top heavy, but I doubt they sustain consistency throughout the course of the regular season. As for the Lakers, their opening night showed everything wrong with the team. Having to heavily rely on a soon-to-be 39 year old Bron is going to be disastrous. If the Lakers can’t seem to figure out their offense, the minutes restriction on Bron will gradually be increased. AD can’t go MIA; the guy is 6’10-11 and needs to start asserting his dominance on both ends of the floor. The Lakers really could use someone like Dwight Howard, as having a bigger starting lineup would alleviate some pressure from AD and help them match up better with the Nuggets.