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NOC New World NOC - GAME OVER
- Thread starter Samoyed
- Start date
Why is it that cap's ISO's seem to pierce together a fully mixed view? idk he might say "final thought townlean" the the actual analysis is sorta different, calling a lot of posts bizarre but not giving a minus. For what it's worth, CAP's ISO on Jalmont seems MUCH MUCH less detailed than it was for mine.
lots of his good shit is more of a ++ actually
also jalmont has much less posts of content than you do so it isnt exactly detailed
bizzare doesnt mean scummy also
what if i told you they are most likely scum here
with an agreed upon 3 player mafia and scum being (in my opinion)
between ds, whydon, energy, and heal
id say we are pretty good
(ds and heal are null-ish reads)
between ds, whydon, energy, and heal
id say we are pretty good
(ds and heal are null-ish reads)
fuck it tbh
/vote whydon
/vote whydon
starting to
maybe m2h is scum? but i never like to back down on my stance
it took me a while to see through my read on former
(Hint: It's because Cap is mafia)
i can agree with that
i cant agree with that
#MAGiCVLGiRL_TRVP_B3VTZ would you sub in?
whydon is skating thru on nothing
town as you said doesnt stay in like this
town as you said doesnt stay in like this
and putting pressure on him could possibly squeeze content out of him
It’s a little late for that yeah?
Idk I don’t want to vote m2h if he’s not going to be here to claim but I would feel bad voting cap today. I don’t think voting former makes sense because he’s always a lynch that we can come back to.
pressure was a subreason
i genuinely think hes scum in this situation
poe says it
logic says it
ik youre talking to jalmont but yeah a ds lynch helps me better understand shit than whydon
i guarantee here that whydons scum but lynching for info is better than lynching normally
/unvote
/vote ds
/unvote
/vote ds
Okay, so this is a little thought exercise I've been trying to do for a while, and idk how clear or accurate it is but it's still something that bothers me. Basically me just trying to following town and mafia mindsets through Former's bizarre actions.
Scenario A. Former is town.
1a (1st action): Former Claims that he thinks 55% chance of m2h being mafia.
1m (1a's motives): Former was not sure and made a close guess. However, what if he made this claim purposely to throw mafia off? Town reasoning for this could hypothetically be trying to throw mafia off so that he could make a protect that the mafia wasn't expecting. However, since mafia wouldn't know Former is a doctor, it's not a fully vetted idea. Alternatively Former just used to think m2h was mafia and then changed his mind, however this means his pattern would have been Day 1 suspicious of m2h, Night 1 Trusting, Day 2 suspicious which is a bit weird (see next actions).
2a: Former night protects m2h. Unverified claim at this point, but let's analyze towny logic as if it were true anyway.
2m: Former's thread stated logic was something about if m2h was actually targetted, he'd 100% know and could move on with solid info. However... what about this logic is unique to m2h? Why did he think Mafia would target someone he thought was mafia? Wouldn't it be in mafia's interest to keep edgecase players alive to have suspicion, or did he think it that people might think m2h is not an edgecase middle read? idk, gets really messy really fast.
3a: Former resumes targetting m2h on Day 2.
3m: If former's night protect of m2h yielded no results, idk why he'd suddenly go so hard on m2h again. I don't get the town mindset here. Maybe he just got too fed up with m2h suspecting him, but idk if that's enough for a 180 on the spot from a townie.
4a: Former claims doctor. Unverifiable claim due to closed setup.
4m: If Former's really town, I guess a doctor claim can be seen as an impassioned "don't lynch me you fuckers, I'm on your side." A desperate moment to stay alive and save town.
5a: Former tries to self hammer Day 2.
5m: If a townie Former was self hammering, then suddenly that desperate plea to stay alive from 4m doesn't make sense. He could maybe just be so fed up with the game that he's willing to quit, but a desperately wanting to stay a live juxtaposed to a self hammer in such a short time is weird.
6a: Former claims to have used his protection on mewtwo.
6m: sort of already covered this under 2m, since that's when the action would have taken place.
Scenario B. Former is scum.
1a: Former Claims that he thinks 55% chance of m2h being mafia.
1m: Former is trying to paint someone else as scum to get away. He uses an over-than-50 but still low % to make it look like he's not tunneling super hard while still trying to cast suspicions on the rest of town.
2a: Former resumes targetting m2h on Day 2.
2m: A towny was mislynched, and a towny nightkilled. Former had planted the seed that m2h was probably scum and resumes the read and pushes to look consistent.
3a: Former claims doctor. Unverifiable claim due to closed setup.
3b: Former gets a lot of heat from a number of directions, and senses that he's next if he doesn't do something. He decides to risk a doctor claim because if the real doctor counter claims, it freezes both him and the real doctor for a day, protecting him from lynch if he successfully argues the freeze while also letting him know who the doctor is so he can night kill them. On the downside, if the freeze fails and he's still lynched, if a real doctor counter claimed, the town would know who the real doctor is but this real doctor would be promptly killed at night anyway, making it easier for scum. Since it's closes setup, if no doctor existed (or if one was inactive), no doctor would be able to counter claim, making it look like Former told the truth. Overally, Former claiming doctor poses very little functional risk for the scum team.
4a: Former tries to self hammer Day 2.
4m: This is still slightly bizarre, but I think one reading is possible. One of Former's actually most convincing posts was when he tried to counter all the scumreads on him by saying it was very hard to pick a scum team that he'd actually be on. Former was frustrated and thought he was doomed, so he did a reckless hammer trying to end Day 2 early to prevent any negative reads being gleened from his "hidden" scumteam. He viewed himself as a liability to the scum team and needed to kill himself. There is also the alternative motivation that he knew self hammer wouldn't be allowed and he was trying to play us all with an emotional scene to stir up drama/emotions/try to do anything to save himself. Note how the alternative explanation is entirely incompatible with the first one though.
5a: Former claims he nightsaved m2h.
5m: Former was pushed to respond, and he did it quickly after being pushed. In this haste, he forgot he has claimed he suspected scum m2h on d1, and this was a minor slip on his end. Alternative reading: he chose m2h to try to gain favor with m2h, since m2h was the biggest pusher against him. Also, m2h was read as probable town, so he picked a probable town.
---
Overall, after trying to think my way through a town Former and scum Former, I think the scum former leads to a more development lens into actual insight. I can simply imagine myself or a theoretical player playing a scum game like Former this game more than I can imagine myself playing a town game like Former this game.
Ultimately, the Scenario B 4a/4b is something that I think is an interesting thing to consider. We already know Former tried to interrogate us and make it seem illogical that we were scumhunting him when we didn't know his team at all. What if this was him actually sharing his thoughts that he thought we didn't know his team? And him self hammering was because he viewed himself as a liability and thought his team could do better without him since he was under such intense scrutiny. Idk, might not be perfect logic I'm using, but it's just something that no one's said in the thread before. All of the talk on Former's wtf self hammer has been from an emotional perspective, so trying to see an angle where it's not an emotional move but rather a calculated move might be helpful. Of course, this isn't to say that scum (or even townies) are exempt from making emotional moves...
idk, overall this thought experiment just makes me a tiny bit more certain that Former is scum.
Scenario A. Former is town.
1a (1st action): Former Claims that he thinks 55% chance of m2h being mafia.
1m (1a's motives): Former was not sure and made a close guess. However, what if he made this claim purposely to throw mafia off? Town reasoning for this could hypothetically be trying to throw mafia off so that he could make a protect that the mafia wasn't expecting. However, since mafia wouldn't know Former is a doctor, it's not a fully vetted idea. Alternatively Former just used to think m2h was mafia and then changed his mind, however this means his pattern would have been Day 1 suspicious of m2h, Night 1 Trusting, Day 2 suspicious which is a bit weird (see next actions).
2a: Former night protects m2h. Unverified claim at this point, but let's analyze towny logic as if it were true anyway.
2m: Former's thread stated logic was something about if m2h was actually targetted, he'd 100% know and could move on with solid info. However... what about this logic is unique to m2h? Why did he think Mafia would target someone he thought was mafia? Wouldn't it be in mafia's interest to keep edgecase players alive to have suspicion, or did he think it that people might think m2h is not an edgecase middle read? idk, gets really messy really fast.
3a: Former resumes targetting m2h on Day 2.
3m: If former's night protect of m2h yielded no results, idk why he'd suddenly go so hard on m2h again. I don't get the town mindset here. Maybe he just got too fed up with m2h suspecting him, but idk if that's enough for a 180 on the spot from a townie.
4a: Former claims doctor. Unverifiable claim due to closed setup.
4m: If Former's really town, I guess a doctor claim can be seen as an impassioned "don't lynch me you fuckers, I'm on your side." A desperate moment to stay alive and save town.
5a: Former tries to self hammer Day 2.
5m: If a townie Former was self hammering, then suddenly that desperate plea to stay alive from 4m doesn't make sense. He could maybe just be so fed up with the game that he's willing to quit, but a desperately wanting to stay a live juxtaposed to a self hammer in such a short time is weird.
6a: Former claims to have used his protection on mewtwo.
6m: sort of already covered this under 2m, since that's when the action would have taken place.
Scenario B. Former is scum.
1a: Former Claims that he thinks 55% chance of m2h being mafia.
1m: Former is trying to paint someone else as scum to get away. He uses an over-than-50 but still low % to make it look like he's not tunneling super hard while still trying to cast suspicions on the rest of town.
2a: Former resumes targetting m2h on Day 2.
2m: A towny was mislynched, and a towny nightkilled. Former had planted the seed that m2h was probably scum and resumes the read and pushes to look consistent.
3a: Former claims doctor. Unverifiable claim due to closed setup.
3b: Former gets a lot of heat from a number of directions, and senses that he's next if he doesn't do something. He decides to risk a doctor claim because if the real doctor counter claims, it freezes both him and the real doctor for a day, protecting him from lynch if he successfully argues the freeze while also letting him know who the doctor is so he can night kill them. On the downside, if the freeze fails and he's still lynched, if a real doctor counter claimed, the town would know who the real doctor is but this real doctor would be promptly killed at night anyway, making it easier for scum. Since it's closes setup, if no doctor existed (or if one was inactive), no doctor would be able to counter claim, making it look like Former told the truth. Overally, Former claiming doctor poses very little functional risk for the scum team.
4a: Former tries to self hammer Day 2.
4m: This is still slightly bizarre, but I think one reading is possible. One of Former's actually most convincing posts was when he tried to counter all the scumreads on him by saying it was very hard to pick a scum team that he'd actually be on. Former was frustrated and thought he was doomed, so he did a reckless hammer trying to end Day 2 early to prevent any negative reads being gleened from his "hidden" scumteam. He viewed himself as a liability to the scum team and needed to kill himself. There is also the alternative motivation that he knew self hammer wouldn't be allowed and he was trying to play us all with an emotional scene to stir up drama/emotions/try to do anything to save himself. Note how the alternative explanation is entirely incompatible with the first one though.
5a: Former claims he nightsaved m2h.
5m: Former was pushed to respond, and he did it quickly after being pushed. In this haste, he forgot he has claimed he suspected scum m2h on d1, and this was a minor slip on his end. Alternative reading: he chose m2h to try to gain favor with m2h, since m2h was the biggest pusher against him. Also, m2h was read as probable town, so he picked a probable town.
---
Overall, after trying to think my way through a town Former and scum Former, I think the scum former leads to a more development lens into actual insight. I can simply imagine myself or a theoretical player playing a scum game like Former this game more than I can imagine myself playing a town game like Former this game.
Ultimately, the Scenario B 4a/4b is something that I think is an interesting thing to consider. We already know Former tried to interrogate us and make it seem illogical that we were scumhunting him when we didn't know his team at all. What if this was him actually sharing his thoughts that he thought we didn't know his team? And him self hammering was because he viewed himself as a liability and thought his team could do better without him since he was under such intense scrutiny. Idk, might not be perfect logic I'm using, but it's just something that no one's said in the thread before. All of the talk on Former's wtf self hammer has been from an emotional perspective, so trying to see an angle where it's not an emotional move but rather a calculated move might be helpful. Of course, this isn't to say that scum (or even townies) are exempt from making emotional moves...
idk, overall this thought experiment just makes me a tiny bit more certain that Former is scum.
Okay, my above post took way too much time so I missed the most recent posts.
The_Caporegime can you explain why you're lynching DS instead of someone like Former?
The_Caporegime can you explain why you're lynching DS instead of someone like Former?