NU Suspect Discussion

[Fuzznip]

That being said, it can be solidly checked with proper scouting. Once you know it's set, you can respond in a variety of ways.

This is easier said than done, however. Due to Charizard's multiple sets and fantastic coverage, it's not an easy task to simply scout what it's going to do. Something is going to be damaged if not killed in the process. And even if you do end up discovering the kind of set it's running, I don't think you can safely assume that you can now safely respond to it in a variety of ways; it might even be too late, actually, if you make the wrong scouting move. It's hard to carry numerous responses to all of Choice Scarf, Choice Specs, and Expert Belt (and to an extent Swords Dance) because it's essentially impossible, Charizard barely has surefire switch-ins to begin with.

If specs, it can easily be revenge killed by essentially any scarfer in the metagame, and with stealth rocks it makes it difficult to switch in and out for zard.

This is true, but you have to keep in mind that the Charizard user is free to switch out as well and come back in to prey on something slower than it later, which is often the case with its high Speed. Stealth Rock definitely limits its switch-ins, but Charizard isn't a Pokemon you use brutally, you need to conserve it and evaluate when it's a good time to bring it out. This is assuming Stealth Rock is set up too, because Charizard is often paired with Stealth Rock deterrents that can keep the hazard off early-game. This is enough for Charizard to start seriously punching holes early-game as you struggle to cope with its offensive presence.

If scarf, you should be able to send out something to tank the move the opponent is locked into, as simply but scarfzard's attacks aren't that powerful, even a blaze range fire blast can be easily tanked by any resistance (which is very common in the form of water and rock types).

Yes but ScarfZard is typically switched in when the opposition is vulnerable to a late-game clean. You're obviously not going to bring it in early-game and start hitting things with it (even though you can), but it's better waiting in the wings and unleashing it when it's necessary. It's also a fairly good revenge killer since it's hard to outspeed. Blaze Fire Blast still hits insanely hard, even against Pokemon that resist it bar the exceptionally bulky ones. For example:

252 SpA Blaze Charizard Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Golem: 168-198 (46.1 - 54.3%) -- 53.1% chance to 2HKO

252 SpA Blaze Charizard Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Samurott: 158-186 (40.1 - 47.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

It's not as easy as it might seem.

SD Zard while unconventional, is probably the hardest to revenge kill, putting even dedicated walls into it's 2HKO range with AcroGem, e.g. Alomomola and Tangela. That being said, it is one of the harder pokemon to set up, due to lack of health upon the switch in as well as weakness to common scarfers and priority, such as aqua jet, ape stone edge, etc.

I'd consider Charizard to have many opportunities to set up. It's really strong at forcing switches because of its coverage and it threatens a ton of Pokemon with its high Speed and offensive prowess. It can take advantage of this fact and set up Swords Dance then. And yes, it can be revenged just as everything else, but you're usually forced to sac something because Primeape and Tauros and the like do not want to be switching into Charizard's attacks. You're also not guaranteed to dispose of it either, unlike with Jynx and Pursuit for example, so it can come back in and kill something again as you try to bring in your revenge killer unscathed.

 

[Django]

Charizard is really really fucking strong. Even between just the Specs set and the SD set there is basically nothing which you can safely switch into it. This obviously doesn't make it broken immediately, but it's definitely a pretty huge factor. It's also got a really really great speed tier when compared with something else that's stupid hard to switch into, like Rampardos, which is basically what makes it so strong atm.

Like Fuzznip just said, SD Zard really isn't difficult to set up. I've used this set tons (claiming the patent for it hue) and since Charizard is so threatening already with LO, Specs, or EBelt sets, the amount of switches it forces is insane, giving it loads of free turns to set up. Yes you've got to get it in safely, but with a Ground immunity and decent bulk it's not that difficult. And honestly, between Roost and Blaze, Stealth Rock isn't even that much of a problem. Especially when you consider how well Charizard pairs with things like Sawk who are great at preventing Stealth Rock, and the fact it only really needs to switch in once to do its job.

I think something to be careful about here is having too many suspects at the same time. It's hard to tell what a potential Jynx or Scolipede ban would do to the meta (well not completely impossible, we've got an ok idea from the previous meta), but it could turn out that Charizard isn't as good without the other two around as different playstyles and mons become more popular. Charizard has been in the tier a long, long time, and this is pretty much the first time it's been brought up. When it first dropped it got such little usage comparatively, despite a lot of hype, but I guess it's been slowly climbing since then (what was that like, 2 years ago?). I'm more unsure about Zard than I am Jynx and Scolipede, but there's no doubt its powerful and deserves some more discussion.

 

[ium]

django the mulletman posted while i was typing but whatever O_O

there is literally no reliable way to scout charizard's set because by nature there are no counters to charizard. it could be anything, and you, as the person who is facing charizard, have to hazard a guess as to what coverage move is missing or whether it's attacking from the physical side. the beauty about using charizard is that it functions in so many different ways—whether it's a wallbreaker or lategame sweeper—but its power and speed can fulfill these roles simultaneously at any time if needed. considering how charizard is at a ridiculous 100 base speed, there are so many things it can come in on after a KO and immediately threaten. the position that the charizard's opponent faces is much more unfavorable when not knowing what charizard's going to do but at the same time knowing that you're most likely going to end up sacrificing something anyway. in a metagame like right now, sometimes you just don't get a second chance after initially trying to scout charizard when almost every team member is crucial for handling other things in the tier

also it's not like charizard has a hard time doing what it needs to either. there are barely any repercussions for just clicking fire blast most of the time (especially if the opposing team is using metang, thanks jynx!!) because it can still dent offensive water- and rock-types. stealth rock is just a slight annoyance that forces the charizard user to evaluate when to bring charizard in. however, it can find a free opportunity to roost or swords dance or whatever. i remember seeing django ladder with swords dance charizard and getting that swords dance boost with no problem at all (don't let his choke vs flcl in last year's spl fool you O_O). not only does it force enough switches which grants it enough opportunities on its own, but it's fairly bulky to where it can set up directly on a pokemon if need be. and honestly, there's plenty of those chances as is when you consider how many people are using metang, bulky grass-types, and fuck even scald alomomola and wartortle if the situation was right and you wanted to get a boost

what i also want to point out is that this metagame is really weird in the sense that a bomb was literally dropped on us when we received jynx, scolipede, and i guess primeape at the same time. the effect on the metagame was incredible, and as django pointed out, could have possibly just made it more favorable for charizard. i mean, we've seen things like altaria and mantine being used prior to jynx and scolipede, and as we all know they aren't that great now although they could've been decent assets to checking charizard. metang was good but other rock-types were better while not having to fear jynx before. while this doesn't mean that charizard was able to be countered in the strictest sense back then either, i feel like it was much easier to manage because you're able to run a larger variety of checks that could allow you to switch into a wrong move once (like with regirock, alomomola, and other things that can take a hit). what we have now is a slight shift towards an offensive and frailer metagame that still relies on some slower pokemon which results in charizard being much harder to check now than ever before. this is probably what has been pushing charizard over the boundary here

also back to jynx, i understand what most people are saying when they mention that there are several good checks to it. however, how many checks do you have to even stack together so that you don't lose simply from a single lovely kiss? we are talking about a limited pool of checks—most of which are mediocre—that we have to pick several from, which forces us to use an odd array of pokemon or sets. the only reason people are using such gimmicks or lures is because teamslots are so valuable that you would rather try to cover jynx in a single move and/or item rather than with a whole different pokemon. it's absolutely a strain to have to build a team in the current metagame so of course people would resort to seemingly gimmicky things that would otherwise be useless without jynx around

 

[DTC]

Comiendo, I appreciate your efforts in trying to objectify the suspect process through hard data, but the fact of the matter is you can't really objectify a process like this. A lot of the data in your post is, quite frankly, not particularly relevant (as an example example, Oblivious and Forewarn's effects are not relevant because Jynx always wants Dry Skin). These statistics hardly tell us anything we do not already know. Yes, Jynx is a strong offensive Pokemon, but is also frail -- these facts are well known. You can't make a decision just from these stats because they fail to take into account so many relevant concepts.

Statistics are not to be used as the basis of the argument; they can be used to supplement an argument, but when your argument is almost 100% stats, it's really not much of an argument, and instead more of a data dump.

 

[Comiendo]

As someone who has been playing Pokemon competitively for 4 years, I have seen various Pokemon come and go from various tiers, both being justified by data and mob-emotion. Being a member of the Pokemon community as well as someone who has an interest in the state of the metagame, I will try my best to objectively analyze both Pokemon using the information provided from Smogon University.

Note: Due to the vastly different move-sets and items each Pokemon can have, I will not be discussing them in my analysis. Understandably, move-sets and items do have the capacity to make or break a Pokemon's effectiveness, however those traits are too subjective for an opinion to be founded upon.

Jynx

Stats
Of the 206 Pokemon currently allowed in the NU metagame, it has the 4th highest base special attack (roughly top 8.34%) and has the 17th highest base speed (roughly top 28.34%). With this offensive stat combination, Jynx stands out as being a very powerful Pokemon without even taking into account any other factors. Relative to the most specially defensive Pokemon in the tier, Jynx's special attack is high than 94.2% of the other Pokemon's special defense. While that may seem like worthless information, when excluding typing, it can be concluded that Jynx has the offensive potential against virtually the entire tier. As a result, when excluding all other factors, Jynx's offensive stats suggest that its presence as a threat is no accident and it is acceptable for a suspect test to be performed on this Pokemon.

Where this analysis falls short, however, when compared to its defensive stats. Ranking 38th in terms of base HP (roughly top 73.08%), 48th in base defense (roughly top 94.12%) and 15th in base special defense (roughly top 31.25%), Jynx's ability to effectively take incoming damage appears minimal at best. While her special defense stat ranks in the top 50%, her HP and defense do not, which, when not including other factors, can lead to the logical conclusion that any incoming physical attack would be detrimental to Jynx's survival. With that being said, judging by her defensive stats alone, Jynx does not merit suspect-testing.

Typing
Boasting its unique Ice/Psychic typing, Jynx individualizes herself from the rest of her peers. While being unique is informally praised in the NU community, it serves as both a blessing and a curse for her. With a 6:2 weakness ratio, there are more moves that can hit Jynx for super-effective than she can resist, making her a target for incoming moves. Of those weaknesses, about 20.51% of Pokemon that out-speed Jynx in NU have one or more of said typings, thus indicating STAB. Of all the Pokemon in the tier, approximately 14.56% are able to learn a priority move with a type Jynx is weak to. Ultimately, due to the presence of multiple Pokemon with the capacity to do super-effective with potential STAB, Jynx's defensive typing does not justify suspect-testing.

Despite the less-than-ideal weakness ratio, Ice/Psychic fairs better in terms of offensive capacity. A 6:7 super-effective/resistant ratio is not the ideal, however it allows to Jynx to still do super-effective STAB damage to approximately 48.54% of the tier with roughly 36.89% of NU being resistant to one or both of said STABs. With no STAB priority, Jynx's typing can leave it either in a position to sweep slow, non-resistant teams or in one where it becomes difficult to use. This, as an independent factor, leads to the fair opinion that Jynx does not need to be suspect-tested.

Abilities
The Humanshape Pokemon has three separate abilities to choose from. Dry Skin and Oblivious both grant Jynx immunities, walling about 88.83% of NU Pokemon capable of attracting her and granting immunity from any water-type move, which accounts for around 15.06% of the STAB in the NU tier, not to mention the countless other Pokemon that can learn an offensive water-type move. Needless to say, Forewarn, Jynx's third ability, is also extraordinarily helpful, warning the player of any powerful moves the opponent has. Because of this, as well as the other abilities Jynx possesses, when examining only the ladder, suspect-testing Jynx is an astutely choice.

Aggregate Analysis
Jynx's stats, alongside it's typing and abilities, has the capacity to be a dominant threat in the NU metagame. Its possible immunity to attraction or water-type moves, alongside its prominent STABs and high offensive stats grant Jynx the ability to do damage to teams that do not prepare for a sweeper. However, her typing is also a curse, only boasting 2 resistances and being crippled by 6 weaknesses (3 of which have priority). On top of that, roughly 35.07% of Pokemon in NU can counter Jynx due to its low defensive stats, which means that about 2/6 Pokemon on a player's team (provided they consider all NU Pokemon) are likely to be able to have a move that can counter her. In conclusion, due to the presence of counters and Jynx's low overall resistances, her presence in the NU metagame does not negatively interfere with the team-building process or the competitiveness of the tier and, as a result, should not be subject-tested.

Scolipede

To be added.

 

[Comiendo]

Comiendo, I appreciate your efforts in trying to objectify the suspect process through hard data, but the fact of the matter is you can't really objectify a process like this. A lot of the data in your post is, quite frankly, not particularly relevant (as an example example, Oblivious and Forewarn's effects are not relevant because Jynx always wants Dry Skin). These statistics hardly tell us anything we do not already know. Yes, Jynx is a strong offensive Pokemon, but is also frail -- these facts are well known. You can't make a decision just from these stats because they fail to take into account so many relevant concepts.

Statistics are not to be used as the basis of the argument; they can be used to supplement an argument, but when your argument is almost 100% stats, it's really not much of an argument, and instead more of a data dump.

I appreciate that you took the time to read my post. While I agree that it is impossible to have an opinion based 100% on logic, I disagree with your statement that an opinion cannot be based upon statistics and data. Using data only as a means of justifying your stance implies that you are coming into the debate with an initial bias (which is not a bad thing). My goal was to come to an opinion as objectively as possible, as I had been debating with myself over the presence of Jynx in the NU metagame, and I believe I have accomplished that task. This could translate to any subject that merits discussion. People who may not have an opinion on the matter may use data as a basis to give them a stance on the matter, and that is what I attempted to do.

 

[Fuzznip]

I appreciate that you took the time to read my post. While I agree that it is impossible to have an opinion based 100% on logic, I disagree with your statement that an opinion cannot be based upon statistics and data. Using data only as a means of justifying your stance implies that you are coming into the debate with an initial bias (which is not a bad thing). My goal was to come to an opinion as objectively as possible, as I had been debating with myself over the presence of Jynx in the NU metagame, and I believe I have accomplished that task. This could translate to any subject that merits discussion. People who may not have an opinion on the matter may use data as a basis to give them a stance on the matter, and that is what I attempted to do.

The point is that the data doesn't mean anything in regards to Jynx or Scolipede being or not being potential suspects. You cannot base your arguments solely on data and statistics when you need to consider how correct they are in practice, objectively or not. Certainly Jynx has flaws in its defensive typing and frailty, but that isn't a justification to keep it from being suspected solely because of that. You have to consider many more variables because Jynx has the tools to make her evident flaws less of a major concern. Looking at your bolded sentence:

In conclusion, due to the presence of counters and Jynx's low overall resistances, her presence in the NU metagame does not negatively interfere with the team-building process or the competitiveness of the tier and, as a result, should not be subject-tested.

You imply here that Jynx has counters that keep her at bay, but this isn't true, because nothing can necessarily counter Jynx. You've neglected to consider her own movepool and thus having Lovely Kiss to neutralize basically any counter in existence. Also, just because x% of Pokemon can hit Jynx super effectively, that means absolutely nothing because a good chunk of those threats are outpaced and OHKOed, cannot switch in without being significantly damaged or OHKOed, and are ineffective Pokemon to even begin using. Something like Shadow Sneak Banette is an irrelevant and horrible threat to use despite it being able to hit Jynx super effectively. Jynx's low overall resistances isn't problematic either. Boasting a Water immunity and Pychic resistance, both common attacking types in NU, Jynx has ample opportunities to switch in and wreak havoc, not even considering other methods such as Volturn, Baton Pass, double switching, etc. I don't know what you mean by "does not negatively interfere with the team-building process or the competitiveness of the tier" either because that is far from true as been repeated by several users before me.

You just can't argue against a Pokemon's placement with data, it doesn't make any sense. You have to consider the Pokemon in practice in the current state of the metagame, not on this broad theoretical scale where things like Bullet Punch Machoke are being considered. It just doesn't work like that.

 

[Comiendo]

The point is that the data doesn't mean anything in regards to Jynx or Scolipede being or not being potential suspects. You cannot base your arguments solely on data and statistics when you need to consider how correct they are in practice, objectively or not. Certainly Jynx has flaws in its defensive typing and frailty, but that isn't a justification to keep it from being suspected solely because of that. You have to consider many more variables because Jynx has the tools to make her evident flaws less of a major concern. Looking at your bolded sentence:


You imply here that Jynx has counters that keep her at bay, but this isn't true, because nothing can necessarily counter Jynx. You've neglected to consider her own movepool and thus having Lovely Kiss to neutralize basically any counter in existence. Also, just because x% of Pokemon can hit Jynx super effectively, that means absolutely nothing because a good chunk of those threats are outpaced and OHKOed, cannot switch in without being significantly damaged or OHKOed, and are ineffective Pokemon to even begin using. Something like Shadow Sneak Banette is an irrelevant and horrible threat to use despite it being able to hit Jynx super effectively. Jynx's low overall resistances isn't problematic either. Boasting a Water immunity and Pychic resistance, both common attacking types in NU, Jynx has ample opportunities to switch in and wreak havoc, not even considering other methods such as Volturn, Baton Pass, double switching, etc. I don't know what you mean by "does not negatively interfere with the team-building process or the competitiveness of the tier" either because that is far from true as been repeated by several users before me.

You just can't argue against a Pokemon's placement with data, it doesn't make any sense. You have to consider the Pokemon in practice in the current state of the metagame, not on this broad theoretical scale where things like Bullet Punch Machoke are being considered. It just doesn't work like that.

Obviously, we have two differing opinions on the matter, which is perfectly acceptable and encouraged. I chose to examine multiple angles of Jynx, and in doing so found no reason for her to be suspect-tested (which implies potential ban). I also based my argument on the idea that any player can use any move-set, which is fair because it is statistically improbably that 100% of users will use the sets provided by Smogon or sets that are common to the metagame. In practice, as you mention, if someone were to not bring a counter, then the odds of getting swept by Jynx increased depending upon her move-set. However, as mentioned in my post, due to Jynx's low defense, it is possible to counter it with Bullet Punch, Shadow Sneak and Sucker Punch. My analysis cannot be held accountable for not factoring in if a player brought a Pokemon with the capacity to counter it or not, all it can be accountable for is looking at Jynx and all of its possibilities, which it did for the most part. I appreciate you taking the time and reading my post, however, and look forward to future dialogue.

 

[Raseri]

I'm not going to delete your posts because I like Fuzznip's and think it brings up some interesting points about how Jynx does really limit teambuilding. But your statistical analysis does not account for what can actually function outside of beating Jynx. (Machoke is bad, Bullet Punch Machoke is even worse)

Anyways, here are some updates about how this test is going to work. I will leave this thread open until the end of week 4 of SPL, at which point myself and DTC will choose a small council of voters who will be making this decision. We will be voting on Jynx and Scolipede for sure, with a possibility of Charizard if there is a real demand. Though that is unlikely at the time, because as Django said, we don't want to suspect too many things at once.

Voting will take place during the All-Star week of SPL, and when the chosen voters submit their votes, they will be obligated to include a small paragraph about each vote they make. So 2 paragraphs total.

Finally, I have not yet decided if I will be voting in this test as well. I likely will unless there is rampant opposition about how my bias in both choosing voters and taking part will drastically influence the vote. If you think this is the case, PM me and I will consider removing myself from the ballot. :)

 

[Royalty]

This would've been great a couple months ago but better late than never.

Jynx - Jynx is probably the 2nd most versatile mon in NU with 1st being scolipede who is also part of this potential suspect discussion. To start, jynx can run scarf for revenge with strong coverage for the tier in Ice, Fighting, and Psychic while also getting access to trick and lovely kiss if one so chooses to put it on the scarf set. Another couple things that make the scarf set so strong is its ability to switch in on water moves freely, which are decently common in NU, as well as it hitting 317 speed which as a scarfer outspeeds all other common scarfers in the tier barring charizard and speed tying primeape. Now normally to check a fast scarfer with good coverage you will bring in a special wall to either sponge any hit and hope to not get tricked or predict correctly to a mon that will resist the incoming attack. Here lies the problem with jynx, if you predict scarf and it turns out to be a set-up jynx then you are most likely losing 1-2 mons by a combination of lovely kiss and nasty plot. It's an entirely situational thing but many players are aware of the threats and are having to use obscure things to prevent such a dilemma which in turn means jynx is having a negative impact on team building in NU.

Scolipede - I have no idea how this stayed NU in the first place but owell. Scolipede is a beast and in terms of viability/support/versatility it is #1. This isn't solely due to scolipede itself but the fact that it has great resists, solid bulk, and can set up a combination of spikes/t-spikes coupled with the abysmal amount of viable rapid spinners in the tier (I like wartortle as much as the next guy but it isn't cutting it) is what makes scolipede broken. Now that is just the support/bulky set but scolipede can also run a deadly offense set with either sub salac or 3 attacks LO. It has an amazing speed in the tier and the bulk to usually get up at least 1 SD to proceed to inflict significant damage to opposing teams. The combination of megahorn/earthquake/rock slide or aqua tail pretty much hit everything scoli needs to hit for super effective damage. Much like jynx, scolipede also restricts team building in NU as you are pretty much forced to run a poison type to absorb t-spikes or wartortle which is pretty much dead weight in most situations outside of trying to get a spin off.

I wouldn't really mind seeing a charizard suspect go up just because of how insanely hard specs/LO hits a vast majority of the tier but I'll reserve my thoughts on that until it is actually confirmed.

 

[Blast]

Sry for going back a few posts but

I don't play Smogon NU avidly, but I play it from time to time and I do have some opinions on Jynx and Scolipede, although basically every argument has been stated before, it's worth it to post. I'll start off with Jynx, although a lot of my main points are addressed earlier in this suspect~

I'm not one for giant Tl;dr, most tl;dr aren't as intelligent as they seem anyways.


1) You need at least two Pokemon that keep Jynx in check / Jynx limits teambuilding a ridiculous amount.

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I know this point has been stated before but this is honestly the biggest reason why I believe Jynx is broken. Previously stated, in order to effectively beat Jynx, you need to have Sleep Fodder + a counter besides that, and a lot of the Jynx "counters" in the meta-game are fairly unviable or outclassed by a lot of other Pokemon. With Lovely Kiss and the terrible 5th gen sleep mechanics, you are essentially taking your opponent's counter to Jynx out of the equation, making it possible set-up fodder for yourself or fodder for your opponent, because odds are your opponent won't be able to burn 2-3 turns to wear off sleep without facing game-changing repercussions. On every team, you HAVE to have Sleep Fodder / Another way to beat Jynx on your team, which is what Django talked about when mentioning the 2 for 1 deal, Jynx cripples two Pokemon in exchange for its life. And that's at least two Pokemon, it could be more, best case scenario is that you revenge somehow, but if not, Jynx is still able to wreak havoc, although after two switch-ins to Rocks in a metagame with rare Rapid Spinning, priority is able to nab OHKOs. If people get sick of running two counters or attempting to create 50/50s every time Jynx switches in, they resort to priority after sacking a Pokemon, and priority is easy to switch into on any decently built team. Just summarizing what I said before, Jynx will blow by your team if you do not have Sleep Fodder + another counter. Every team must have two Pokemon able to beat Jynx, possibly even more depending on playstyle, which is what I mean by limits teambuilding.

2) People going out of their way to beat Jynx with gimmicks

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I'm all for using gimmicks in NU, effective ways to throw off your opponent by beating certain counters that whatever Pokemon has. But people have been going waaaayy to out of their way to beat Jynx. Of course all the good points are stated, Pursuit Metang, Gyro Ball Wartortle, literally these moves on these Pokemon do nothing else for any other Pokemon. The best Pursuit Metang can do is hit Musharna for 20% when it switches out, which is fairly sad. Gyro Ball Wartortle can't even break a Serperior Sub, unless you put in a solid amount of Attack EVs, clearly taking away from Wartortle's main use as a wall to most Fire/Water-type Pokemon while being able to Rapid Spin. These obviously aren't gimmicks but Lum Golem and Yache Golurk are for Jynx exactly, who's usage in tournament games have sky rocketed because of their ability to take on Jynx better than basically anything else in the tier. Although somebody already said this, without Jynx, a lot of the Pokemon essentially lose their effectiveness, esp. the Wartortle / Pursuit Metang. Summarizing this, Jynx's effectiveness has forced certain Pokemon to take away a moveslot that could be beneficial for loads of other Pokemon and situations in order to beat Jynx, showing that Jynx has centralized a tier to an extent. (Can't believe I used the word centralization, hate that word.)

3) Jynx is the most unpredictable Pokemon in the tier, making it incredibly hard to wall.

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Jynx obviously can only attack from the special side, but it can do so with a plethora of effective sets. Jynx can run a Lovely Kiss + 3 Attack set that is extremely lethal, with Focus Blast OHKOing the Steel-type Pokemon who are used to check most Jynx, i.e Probopass / Bastiodon / Klang w.e. Jynx is also capable of running an extremely effective Sash set, which bluffs scarf incredibly well and allows it to stay in on faster, threatening Pokemon if the sash is kept intact. the 3 Attacks, Focus Blast / Psychic / Ice Beam are capable of 2HKOing a lot of the tier and Lovely Kiss renders slower counters useless, and just a punching bag for Jynx. Nasty Plot gets a mention as well, abusing Lovely Kiss to set-up a Substitute and boost its Special Attack, and Lovely Kiss allows Jynx to put the Pokemon back to sleep if it wakes up to break the Sub, making it hard for the opponent to stop Jynx if it gets the chance to set-up. And last but not least, Scarf Jynx, the most used set and the most effective in my opinion, Base 95 Speed for a scarfer has defined the metagame, making a lot of scarfers that are under Base 95 become somewhat unviable, because unless they are used to form a VoltTurn core, they are fully outclassed by Jynx. Lovely Kiss allows Jynx to sleep its fodder, and Trick can cripple a counter late-game if necessary, and Ice Beam and Psychic is not resisted by much in the current NU Metagame. You have to scout for this every single game, which makes it incredibly hard to play against a threat as large as Jynx is. To summarize, Jynx's unpredictability makes it incredibly hard to play against, forcing the opponent to scout for it every game, making it near impossible to defeat.

To summarize all my points if you don't feel like reading...

Jynx will blow by your team if you do not have Sleep Fodder + another counter. Every team must have two Pokemon able to beat Jynx, possibly even more depending on playstyle, which is what I mean by limits teambuilding. Jynx's effectiveness has forced certain Pokemon to take away a moveslot that could be beneficial for loads of other Pokemon and situations in order to beat Jynx, showing that Jynx has centralized a tier to an extent. Jynx's unpredictability makes it incredibly hard to play against, forcing the opponent to scout for it every game, making it near impossible to defeat.

Will post about Scolipede later.

I seriously don't know why everyone is making such a big deal about Gyro Ball Wartortle. There are tons of things that "shouldn't see the light of day if not for x" and it's not like Wartortle's last moveslot is already mostly filler so I don't get what's so wrong with using that slot for luring a troublesome Pokémon (even if it is insanely gimmicky). I don't think things like Duosion would ever use Thunder other for than the sole purpose of hitting Mandibuzz, does that make Mandibuzz overcentralizing? And stop saying that these mons are being "forced" to use these gimmicks, because they're not. Gyro Ball isn't even mentioned on Wartortle's analysis, nor is Yache Berry on Golurk's, so it's clear that Jynx's presence in the tier isn't driving these mons to the point where they *have* to use gimmicks just to deal with it. Anyway that's probably the last I'll touch on that subject because I don't want this turning into a Wartortle thread lol

Pertaining to Jynx itself, you have to carry 2+ checks for almost everything, and with the plenty of things that can either outspeed it or hit it with priority or w/e it's really not hard at all to check Jynx (it's just really hard to counter). And besides, just because this thing lacks true counters doesn't necessarily make it broken. Samurott and Eelektross don't have any hard counters either, and I'd hardly consider either broken. I get that Jynx is different because it has Lovely Kiss to semi-guarantee a kill, but sleep is something that people should be prepared to deal with anyway, as hard as it tends to be. If we ban Jynx just because of Lovely Kiss then by this logic every sleep inducer should be banned because they technically "can't be countered" either. (Also js but Jynx isn't even the fastest sleep inducer in the tier, that's Jumpluff, but seriously don't quote me on that since I'm just using it for reference.)

At this point though I'm still not convinced Jynx is broken, but that being said I will concede that it leaving the tier isn't going to make NU any less playable than it is currently.

Would've posted about Scolipede too but there's not much to add since everything's pretty much been said already :o Charizard is interesting though, I'll probably talk about that at some point.

 

[scorpdestroyer]

Yeah I agree with Django that it's not very sensible to suspect Charizard right now, there are a lot of possible changes that could happen if Jynx and/or Scolipede leave.

I'll respond to Sidfrid's post. His arguments were that Scolipede could be stopped by Regirock and Rotom-S, and that there were other Spikers. It's true that Rotom-S can stop it from laying more than 1 layer but in reality there isn't much of a situation where Scolipede and Rotom-S end up 1v1. Even so, Scolipede can always switch, come back again and Spike away and there aren't a lot of threats that can stop it. Regirock on the other hand can counter Scolipede in the traditional sense but still cannot prevent Scolipede from setting up all over it, which is the main argument for most of the pro-bans. The difference between Scolipede and the other Spikers is that Scolipede can set up Spikes quickly and without risk. Garbodor and Roselia are great Spikers with lots of utility as well, but none of them can guarantee Spikes like Scolipede can. This is because they can be stopped by Taunt or a faster super effective move. Meanwhile Scolipede is much harder to Taunt or kill before it runs amok with Spikes due to its combination of Speed and a powerful STAB that happens to damage the faster Taunt users really hard (Liepard, Serperior, Electrode). At the same time, Garbodor and Roselia are prone to being set up on which limits the number of times they can safely use Spikes. Meanwhile, Scolipede is powerful enough to prevent itself from being setup fodder and the only things that can safely set up on it are Gurdurr, Throh, Curse Regirock and Braviary, and apart from Gurdurr none of them are common enough such that the Scolipede user has to weigh the risk of setting up Spikes while the opponent sets up.

Regarding Jynx, I'm still slightly on the fence and haven't settled on a firm opinion, but I'm leaning more towards the ban side for what Fuzznip said: the threat of Lovely Kiss and high Speed puts lots of pressure on the opponent to react in a lose-lose situation. I do see the validity of the anti-ban side, being that Jynx can be checked and that Jynx doesn't find many switchin opportunities if enough offensive pressure is applied. However the threat of a speedy Lovely Kiss, in combination with a good STAB combo and a fourth move that can be given to Sub, Focus Blast, Energy Ball, etc. might be enough to push it over the edge since whatever the opponent does, the Jynx user doesn't lose much at all.

I'd also like to point out that the argument about resorting to Gyro Ball Wartortle and Sleep Talk Metang just to check Jynx isn't a very good argument because these Pokemon can still beat Jynx, albeit less effectively, without these moves. Toxic from Wartortle is usually enough to beat Jynx while Bullet Punch on Metang can defeat Jynx and isnt useless outside of that. Saying that Lovely Kiss beats Metang is not very true because Metang still walls Jynx, asleep or not o.o Besides, running gimmicky moves specifically to lure and beat certain Pokemon isn't completely unheard of (Giga Drain Haunter, Psych Up Regirock, HP Ice Charizard). Even so, Wartortle and Metang aren't the only ones that beat Jynx: look at Regice, Munchlax, Bronzor, and Klang, while Jynx can be checked by Probopass, Skuntank, Seismitoad, Gurdurr, and other priority users.

 

[Mistrals]

Yeah I agree with Django that it's not very sensible to suspect Charizard right now, there are a lot of possible changes that could happen if Jynx and/or Scolipede leave.

I'll respond to Sidfrid's post. His arguments were that Scolipede could be stopped by Regirock and Rotom-S, and that there were other Spikers. It's true that Rotom-S can stop it from laying more than 1 layer but in reality there isn't much of a situation where Scolipede and Rotom-S end up 1v1. Even so, Scolipede can always switch, come back again and Spike away and there aren't a lot of threats that can stop it. Regirock on the other hand can counter Scolipede in the traditional sense but still cannot prevent Scolipede from setting up all over it, which is the main argument for most of the pro-bans. The difference between Scolipede and the other Spikers is that Scolipede can set up Spikes quickly and without risk. Garbodor and Roselia are great Spikers with lots of utility as well, but none of them can guarantee Spikes like Scolipede can. This is because they can be stopped by Taunt or a faster super effective move. Meanwhile Scolipede is much harder to Taunt or kill before it runs amok with Spikes due to its combination of Speed and a powerful STAB that happens to damage the faster Taunt users really hard (Liepard, Serperior, Electrode). At the same time, Garbodor and Roselia are prone to being set up on which limits the number of times they can safely use Spikes. Meanwhile, Scolipede is powerful enough to prevent itself from being setup fodder and the only things that can safely set up on it are Gurdurr, Throh, Curse Regirock and Braviary, and apart from Gurdurr none of them are common enough such that the Scolipede user has to weigh the risk of setting up Spikes while the opponent sets up.

Regarding Jynx, I'm still slightly on the fence and haven't settled on a firm opinion, but I'm leaning more towards the ban side for what Fuzznip said: the threat of Lovely Kiss and high Speed puts lots of pressure on the opponent to react in a lose-lose situation. I do see the validity of the anti-ban side, being that Jynx can be checked and that Jynx doesn't find many switchin opportunities if enough offensive pressure is applied. However the threat of a speedy Lovely Kiss, in combination with a good STAB combo and a fourth move that can be given to Sub, Focus Blast, Energy Ball, etc. might be enough to push it over the edge since whatever the opponent does, the Jynx user doesn't lose much at all.

I'd also like to point out that the argument about resorting to Gyro Ball Wartortle and Sleep Talk Metang just to check Jynx isn't a very good argument because these Pokemon can still beat Jynx, albeit less effectively, without these moves. Toxic from Wartortle is usually enough to beat Jynx while Bullet Punch on Metang can defeat Jynx and isnt useless outside of that. Saying that Lovely Kiss beats Metang is not very true because Metang still walls Jynx, asleep or not o.o Besides, running gimmicky moves specifically to lure and beat certain Pokemon isn't completely unheard of (Giga Drain Haunter, Psych Up Regirock, HP Ice Charizard). Even so, Wartortle and Metang aren't the only ones that beat Jynx: look at Regice, Munchlax, Bronzor, and Klang, while Jynx can be checked by Probopass, Skuntank, Seismitoad, Gurdurr, and other priority users.

Jynx gets a guaranteed 2HKO with specs focus blast, or being at +1 on most of those, even Munchlax with a modest nature. Those being 252+ special defense, and at +2 with a nasty plot set it can OHKO Klang most likely if it carries focus blast. With rocks or spikes up..
+2 252 SpA Jynx Focus Blast vs. 0 HP / 252+ SpD Eviolite Klang: 258-304 (98.8 - 116.4%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO

Seismitoad can be eliminated by energy ball or 2HKOed by specs, and even possibly OHKOed by a modest nasty plot set, if it's max hp and not special defense.

Gurdurr takes a hefty amount to psychic, so while it can force the switch, it is a very risky switch-in because if that happens it will be unable to switch in again on it as anything but death fodder.

Do I even need to say what focus blast would do to Probo?

While these do deal with some Jynx sets, like the common scarfer, they don't deal with all of Jynx's diverse sets. That's possibly the most threatening aspect of Jynx, it's unpredictability around what it is. One wrong prediction can cost a game. If you suddenly have a +2 Jynx instead of the scarfer you expected, you might be in a bit of trouble.



Skip on Charizard for now, with a metagame changing like this if these two go, it's roll will most likely be radically different, especially considering these are two pokemon it is used to deal with commonly, especially Scolipede.

 

[Fuzznip]

Yeah I agree with Django that it's not very sensible to suspect Charizard right now, there are a lot of possible changes that could happen if Jynx and/or Scolipede leave.

I think it's pretty obvious that the metagame will end up being slower and less offensive given the likely absence of Scolipede and Jynx (hyper offense spike stacking isn't going to be that strong). Thus, Charizard will be even worse than it is right now because it was able to be checked by Choice Scarf Jynx and standard Scolipede assuming it's not Choice Scarfed itself. I mean, how else will the metagame shift? There's literally no way it's going to be more offensive than it is now if those two threats are banned, which seems to be the consensus for the most part. With that said, I personally find it acceptable to throw it into the ring of potential suspects as well.

I'd also like to point out that the argument about resorting to Gyro Ball Wartortle and Sleep Talk Metang just to check Jynx isn't a very good argument because these Pokemon can still beat Jynx, albeit less effectively, without these moves. Toxic from Wartortle is usually enough to beat Jynx while Bullet Punch on Metang can defeat Jynx and isnt useless outside of that. Saying that Lovely Kiss beats Metang is not very true because Metang still walls Jynx, asleep or not o.o Besides, running gimmicky moves specifically to lure and beat certain Pokemon isn't completely unheard of (Giga Drain Haunter, Psych Up Regirock, HP Ice Charizard). Even so, Wartortle and Metang aren't the only ones that beat Jynx: look at Regice, Munchlax, Bronzor, and Klang, while Jynx can be checked by Probopass, Skuntank, Seismitoad, Gurdurr, and other priority users.

But they are good arguments. Wartortle without Gyro Ball is complete setup bait to Substitute Jynx. If you blatantly allow Jynx to Sub, you're in a terrible position. You literally are. That's why Wartortle is running Gyro Ball because otherwise Jynx runs over it. And like Django pointed out, what if Jynx isn't even on the opposing team? It's now 23 moves vs 24. Don't even tell me Wartortle has nothing else to use, because it does. Haze? Yawn? Toxic? Even Mirror Coat. Also, Lovely Kiss does beat Metang without Sleep Talk. Firstly, it can be worn down by repeated Ice Beam or Focus Blast hits as you keep sending it in to sponge hits. Secondly, a sleeping Metang is probably the biggest setup bait in existence. It's so easy to take advantage of and force out to keep it sleeping. You're pretty much screwed, to be honest.

Also, let's be real. Munchlax and Bronzor are not even good Pokemon and are far more vulnerable than something like Metang. Probopass is also destroyed by Focus Blast. Skuntank can't switch into Ice Beam and it's a 50/50 from there pretty much if you're not using Lum Berry. Gurdurr can't switch in either and doesn't OHKO Jynx with Mach Punch (Metang's Bullet Punch doesn't even beat it without SR), and Seismitoad can't switch in either unless it's the uncommon specially defensive variant (it will be put to sleep regardless). This is why people like to resort to these obscure movesets on certain Pokemon to potentially catch Jynx off-guard because it's just that hard to deal with. The best way to beat Jynx is by using these obscure and otherwise ineffective strategies that the Jynx user won't consider, such as Sheer Force + Pursuit Tauros, Gyro Ball Wartortle, Lum Berry Golem, Sucker Punch Rotom-S, and more. However, these have been gaining more popularity, so who knows how reliable they are now to beat Jynx. It's so unhealthy to be in this metagame and the metagame can finally breathe for once if it's banned, which it should.

 

[noobcubed]

Ugh, what I would hate to see is a huge bandwagon suspect of all the offensive threats in NU. You say that Charizard will get worse if Jynx and Scolipede go, so suspect it as well? Well, the speed tiers are dropping like a stone now and suddenly Braviary is very centralising, so let's suspect Braviary too! You can see that this could get out of hand. On the other hand, maybe Charizard will be more manageable without them. Charizard will get fewer OHKOs and 2HKOs without Scolipede's easy Spikes; maybe the likes of Regirock and other Charizard checks will see more usage if Jynx goes because not everybody is running Metang as their SR user any more; etc etc.

 

[Fuzznip]

Ugh, what I would hate to see is a huge bandwagon suspect of all the offensive threats in NU. You say that Charizard will get worse if Jynx and Scolipede go, so suspect it as well? Well, the speed tiers are dropping like a stone now and suddenly Braviary is very centralising, so let's suspect Braviary too! You can see that this could get out of hand. On the other hand, maybe Charizard will be more manageable without them. Charizard will get fewer OHKOs and 2HKOs without Scolipede's easy Spikes; maybe the likes of Regirock and other Charizard checks will see more usage if Jynx goes because not everybody is running Metang as their SR user any more; etc etc.

Don't be absurd. Braviary is not on the same level as Charizard, they are distinctly different. And yes, I genuinely do believe Charizard will likely be a bigger threat than it is now with them gone, it doesn't really take a scientist to make that kind of claim. Charizard doesn't even need Spikes support to begin with (I've never paired it with Spikes before, even on my SPL teams), it's strong enough to net big damage against the entire relevant metagame. Even then, Spikes is still going to exist from the likes of Garbodor and Roselia, even Cacturne will see some more use, so don't think they are going to be out of the picture. Lastly, Regirock and other bulky Rock-types or whatever are still hit super effectively by Hidden Power Grass or Focus Blast. With their lack of reliable recovery, they will eventually succumb to wear and tear. My SPL match against Reiku is actually a good example of this.

 

[noobcubed]

Braviary was just an example (because I personally have trouble when I face it; I am a relatively unskilled player so take the example with a pinch of salt). My point was that (a) assuming that Jynx and/or Scolipede will be banned is a big leap already, and then (b) second-guessing how ban-worthy Charizard is in such a metagame is pure theorymon. I was only being absurd to highlight how absurd your suggestion that "oh well Charizard will be broken after the other broken threats have gone" was.

 

[Fuzznip]

Braviary was just an example (because I personally have trouble when I face it; I am a relatively unskilled player so take the example with a pinch of salt). My point was that (a) assuming that Jynx and/or Scolipede will be banned is a big leap already, and then (b) second-guessing how ban-worthy Charizard is in such a metagame is pure theorymon. I was only being absurd to highlight how absurd your suggestion that "oh well Charizard will be broken after the other broken threats have gone" was.

I never suggested that Charizard is broken right now nor will it be broken after Jynx and Scolipede are probably banned (the reason why I brought it up to begin with). I'm just saying that I have a strong feeling that it will be far more of a menace in a metagame where Scolipede and/or Jynx are absent. We will be losing two additional responses to Charizard, making it a harder threat to manage. That's all.

Edit: Good point Django.

 

[Django]

I get that Jynx is different because it has Lovely Kiss to semi-guarantee a kill, but sleep is something that people should be prepared to deal with anyway, as hard as it tends to be. If we ban Jynx just because of Lovely Kiss then by this logic every sleep inducer should be banned because they technically "can't be countered" either. (Also js but Jynx isn't even the fastest sleep inducer in the tier, that's Jumpluff, but seriously don't quote me on that since I'm just using it for reference.)

I've talked about this at length in a previous post so I'll just post the relevant bits here...

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2. It's Speed: Jynx is, by NU standards, fast. Base 95 outspeeds a large majority of the metagame and while there are a number of great Pokemon faster than Jynx, there will still be something on your team that Jynx is faster than. This is the key difference between Jynx and other sleepers (ignoring Jumpluff for the moment, I'll get to that later...) because it immediately threatens your team with Sleep when it comes out. Something like Tangela, on the other hand, is much less likely to outspeed the Pokemon it is facing and thus becomes easier to deal with in terms of sleep. The effect of this on the metagame is that base 95 becomes the speed to beat, considerably more difficult to do than base 80 or so. This places a much higher value on anything that is faster than Jynx (as a large portion of Raseri's list was), and, in general, the faster you go the frailer you are. This can mean that many teams are now built around Speed (a very easy way to deal with Jynx!), and thus the metagame becomes faster, frailer - to a degree which I believe to be negative. At a certain point everything is so frail that games can descend into the "I kill you you kill me I kill you" games which I think are part of the least skillful (read: competitive) games that can exist in Pokemon. Now, the fact is that faster sleepers exist, so why hasn't this happened before? On to number 3...

3. It's power and versatility: The key difference between say, Jumpluff and Jynx, is that Jynx provides an immediate and powerful threat to your team with its high offensive stats and base power STABS (as well as coverage with Focus Blast). Jumpluff requires turns to set up before it's threatening, or it just SubSeeds and no one cares. To prove this look at the list Raseri gave, how many will enjoy switching into either of Ice Beam, Psychic/Psyshock, or Focus Blast? Not a lot. This leaves you stuck between a rock and a hard place: do I switch out and get slept (risking being hit with powerful attacks) or do I stay in and take the same risk? This is just the effect of its power. Its versatility, on the other hand, can mean that switching in death fodder to what you thought was LO + 3 Attacks, can now be a disaster because it just used Sub and your dealing with Sub NP. Now, LOTS of Pokemon force this same issue (risking staying in vs switching out, as well as having multiple sets i.e. Samurott) but the issue is that if you get it wrong, Jynx punishes you so much harder. Predicting the wrong set puts you so much further behind than it would vs Samurott. Similarly, the lack of really solid switch ins means that its much harder to reliably deal with the LO 3 Attacks set without either overly preparing for it or running specific counters like Metang. Further, the advantage in the risk vs reward situation is so much in favor of the Jynx user. Lovely Kiss combined with the rest of Jynx's qualities mean its such a low risk to just throw out a Lovely Kiss, and if it connects you've crippled one Pokemon and can likely do so to another with one of your powerful attacks. Now, the reason I think this is bad for the tier is similar to Sleep: We are trying to maximize our chances of winning, and the number of sets Jynx can run, along with the power of those sets, means we have to overprepare for them (at least I find myself doing so) and thus leave ourselves open to a large number of other threats.

Source for anyone who likes reading essays. Basically, it's not JUST Lovely Kiss that makes Jynx broken (imo), but the combination of Lovely Kiss, great Speed tier, great versatility, and ridiculous offensive presence.

I think it's pretty obvious that the metagame will end up being slower and less offensive given the likely absence of Scolipede and Jynx (hyper offense spike stacking isn't going to be that strong). Thus, Charizard will be even worse than it is right now because it was able to be checked by Choice Scarf Jynx and standard Scolipede assuming it's not Choice Scarfed itself. I mean, how else will the metagame shift? There's literally no way it's going to be more offensive than it is now if those two threats are banned, which seems to be the consensus for the most part. With that said, I personally find it acceptable to throw it into the ring of potential suspects as well.

Alternative arguments could be made though. Yes its obvious that the meta will go back to being slower and less offensive, but maybe that will make it easier to check Charizard as bulkier Pokemon become more popular again. As ium mentioned, the lack of Jynx could make the likes of Altaria or Mantine popular again (they used to be fun but now they are mostly just Jynx bait :( ) A lack of Spikes could ~potentially~ make things like Flareon a little more viable, and thus more Charizard checks become usable. Still though, both of us are just speculating here, it could go either way (LOL did I really just say that...). I think the issue with suspecting all 3 at once is that it becomes less clear what the effect of each is individually is on the metagame (in fact I would prefer to suspect just one, but time is kind of an issue here). Then again, that's just the way I see it. I agree that Charizard is deserving of a suspect test, I just don't think it's wise to do everything at once.

Also about concerns this just leads to the next best thing getting banned...it's something we definitely have to be careful of. Braviary is a pretty legit concern since there was a time when it was considered for suspect (wait didn't we actually suspect it once?? I don't remember), but I trust that this community is more than wise enough to realise when a tier is stable and when bans are actually needed (like now).

 

[Royalty]

Flareon + Mantine cores are the future. But in all seriousness zard is probably deserving right now but we should wait a bit solely because there are 2 more cancerous mons in the tier, jynx + scoli, and after that vote there should be a discussion (not theorymon) on whether zard merits an individual vote.

 

[Fuzznip]

Yeah I'll definitely agree with that. Speculation only takes you so far, and I very well could be wrong about Charizard's presence in a metagame where Jynx and Scolipede are banned, so having a separate discussion thread is the best way to go about this later on. I pretty much forgot that Jynx will make underrated Pokemon more viable, such as Altaria and Mantine, who are both fully capable of dealing with most of Charizard's popular sets (not SD, though, I bet that'll see more use x_x).

 

[Lyren]

I disagree that Charizard will be a bigger threat without Jynx and Scol. If zard isn't running scarf, then it's beaten by every scarf user in the tier as well as anything that outspeeds it. If it is running the scarf set, it doesn't have the power to break through walls such as Miltank and Lickilicky, who were before overburdened with needing to retain enough hp to use heal bell to save you from Jynx. Ampharos provides a fantastic check to Charizard, because it can't be OHKO'd but can OHKO in return with volt-switch, forcing your opponent to take a hefty hit and lose momentum. While rocks alone don't defeat Charizard, with it being the biggest special attacking threat it's far more manageable to check repeatedly and force out. Additionally, without Jynx to check certain aspects of rain teams, they become more powerful and thus a general team typing that beats Charizard becomes more viable. Further a poke like Skuntank, who also generally had to preserve itself for trapping Jynx, also becomes a a huge problem for Charizard:

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252+ Atk Skuntank Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Charizard: 139-165 (46.8 - 55.5%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Choice Specs Charizard Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 252 SpD Skuntank: 277-327 (79.8 - 94.2%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Life Orb Charizard Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 176 SpD Skuntank: 265-312 (76.3 - 89.9%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

Though not unwinnable for Charizard, and a non-prefered EV spread has to be used to live a hit from choice specs, the matchup is horribly unfavorable for Zard as a bad prediction/fireblast miss/falling short of OHKO/living the sucker punch all can lead to it's downfall. Switching zard out at that point is just plain terrible, as the pursuit not only can KO, but even if it doesn't the rocks will on the next switch in. Though certainly not a hard counter, it shows many teams are already capable of dealing with zard under the conditions that they don't have other huge special attacking threats to worry about.

While Zard hit's extremely hard, it has a substantial number of checks with a limited ability to switch. This is different from Jynx, who doesn't have any reasonable counters until Sleep clause is in effect. While Jynx and Scolopede could certainly provide a strong check for Zard, it's unreasonable and a hasty conclusion to say that Zard will overrun the meta as a result of them leaving.

And as a side note of personal taste, at least Charizard is a fun poke to face, as a opposed to this monster that currently wrecks havoc on this poor tier:

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The Jynxpede:

 

[ium]

I disagree that Charizard will be a bigger threat without Jynx and Scol. If zard isn't running scarf, then it's beaten by every scarf user in the tier as well as anything that outspeeds it. If it is running the scarf set, it doesn't have the power to break through walls such as Miltank and Lickilicky, who were before overburdened with needing to retain enough hp to use heal bell to save you from Jynx. Ampharos provides a fantastic check to Charizard, because it can't be OHKO'd but can OHKO in return with volt-switch, forcing your opponent to take a hefty hit and lose momentum. While rocks alone don't defeat Charizard, with it being the biggest special attacking threat it's far more manageable to check repeatedly and force out. Additionally, without Jynx to check certain aspects of rain teams, they become more powerful and thus a general team typing that beats Charizard becomes more viable. Further a poke like Skuntank, who also generally had to preserve itself for trapping Jynx, also becomes a a huge problem for Charizard:

Hide

252+ Atk Skuntank Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Charizard: 139-165 (46.8 - 55.5%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Choice Specs Charizard Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 252 SpD Skuntank: 277-327 (79.8 - 94.2%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Life Orb Charizard Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 176 SpD Skuntank: 265-312 (76.3 - 89.9%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

Though not unwinnable for Charizard, and a non-prefered EV spread has to be used to live a hit from choice specs, the matchup is horribly unfavorable for Zard as a bad prediction/fireblast miss/falling short of OHKO/living the sucker punch all can lead to it's downfall. Switching zard out at that point is just plain terrible, as the pursuit not only can KO, but even if it doesn't the rocks will on the next switch in. Though certainly not a hard counter, it shows many teams are already capable of dealing with zard under the conditions that they don't have other huge special attacking threats to worry about.

While Zard hit's extremely hard, it has a substantial number of checks with a limited ability to switch. This is different from Jynx, who doesn't have any reasonable counters until Sleep clause is in effect. While Jynx and Scolopede could certainly provide a strong check for Zard, it's unreasonable and a hasty conclusion to say that Zard will overrun the meta as a result of them leaving.

anything can be potentially beaten by a choice scarf pokemon. that's how revenge killing works. but naturally these are pokemon that can't switch in reliably to attacks so you're likely to bring in your choice scarf user after something else has fainted from being sacrified. this usually isn't a problem given the nature of how offense works in this generation, but it's kind of ridiculous when charizard sits at a base speed far too high compared to a majority of used pokemon to where it's slightly more difficult to revenge kill, which is why keeping up stealth rock is almost mandatory to have an easier time beating it. and yes it can beat lickilicky and miltank because it has focus blast—it only needs expert belt and/or hazards for the former. additionally, ampharos is merely a check as are so many other pokemon but the simple basis is that nothing is switching in with complete certainty and many pokemon like ampharos can be worn down with no reliable recovery. skuntank is a poor check as well because you're simply just forcing yourself into a coinflip situation with a reliance of stealth rock being present. not all charizard sets are all-out attackers and it can just roost, roar, swords dance, whatever while predicting your priority move. your calculations already simply show how unreliable it is when you're risking a 60% damage variation chance given all those guessing factors prior to actually making contact with sucker punch. this doesn't even account for the fact that skuntank is better off checking something like musharna but you had to lose it to a charizard

also regarding your comment about jynx checking rain teams, i would say that jynx is a rather mediocre check outside of perhaps switching into a water-type move and wasting one turn of rain, because it faces a 2HKO from giga drain, earth power, signal beam, and whatever other coverage moves are being used by swift swim pokemon. earthquake on seismitoad shouldn't even be a surprise either because it OHKOs jynx while hitting specially bulky grass-types slightly harder. in fact, prior to jynx and scolipede being in the tier, a ton of rain checks were more viable. think bulky ludicolo, mantine, regice, gardevoir. their usage plummeted from the presence of a smaller number of pokemon but they were perhaps more reliable ways to handle rain teams

this is not to say whether i agree or disagree with your stance but the reasoning behind this is faulty. i personally think it's difficult to say because as already aforementioned, we aren't in an environment where each single potential suspect was introduced one at a time. i suppose it's also difficult to decide because a lot of people didn't encourage charizard use back then

I seriously don't know why everyone is making such a big deal about Gyro Ball Wartortle. There are tons of things that "shouldn't see the light of day if not for x" and it's not like Wartortle's last moveslot is already mostly filler so I don't get what's so wrong with using that slot for luring a troublesome Pokémon (even if it is insanely gimmicky). I don't think things like Duosion would ever use Thunder other for than the sole purpose of hitting Mandibuzz, does that make Mandibuzz overcentralizing? And stop saying that these mons are being "forced" to use these gimmicks, because they're not. Gyro Ball isn't even mentioned on Wartortle's analysis, nor is Yache Berry on Golurk's, so it's clear that Jynx's presence in the tier isn't driving these mons to the point where they *have* to use gimmicks just to deal with it. Anyway that's probably the last I'll touch on that subject because I don't want this turning into a Wartortle thread lol

Pertaining to Jynx itself, you have to carry 2+ checks for almost everything, and with the plenty of things that can either outspeed it or hit it with priority or w/e it's really not hard at all to check Jynx (it's just really hard to counter). And besides, just because this thing lacks true counters doesn't necessarily make it broken. Samurott and Eelektross don't have any hard counters either, and I'd hardly consider either broken. I get that Jynx is different because it has Lovely Kiss to semi-guarantee a kill, but sleep is something that people should be prepared to deal with anyway, as hard as it tends to be. If we ban Jynx just because of Lovely Kiss then by this logic every sleep inducer should be banned because they technically "can't be countered" either. (Also js but Jynx isn't even the fastest sleep inducer in the tier, that's Jumpluff, but seriously don't quote me on that since I'm just using it for reference.)

At this point though I'm still not convinced Jynx is broken, but that being said I will concede that it leaving the tier isn't going to make NU any less playable than it is currently.

i want to respond to this post even though django kind of touched upon it. i also agree that reading the last suspect thread (and even the very old one when jynx was first banned) would be nice to do before regurgitating certain arguments

first of all, i don't like referring to what the analyses say or don't say because you have to consider who wrote them and at what time they were written. sometimes the quality is questionable even though there's "quality control" :-) and additionally how you determine sets depend on how the team is structured so analyses shouldn't be a universal reference for everyone since that can result in slight deviations

you're very one-dimensional in these arguments. yea i agree with you that jynx "lure" sets aren't necessarily forced per se and that many pokemon use a move simply to hit one or a few pokemon that aren't always jynx. however, the drawbacks you face just by not running anything to handle jynx to some decency with wartortle or whatever else was mentioned is way different than not having anything to hit mandibuzz hard with duosion. mandibuzz is not going to completely shit on your team simply because it is easier to manage. on the other hand, if jynx gets in safely against your wartortle then you automatically lose momentum. if you bring in a metang without sleep talk or bullet punch (i actually don't see how pursuit is better than these) then you're only going to be wearing it down residually (maybe not even) while it can get away with a lovely kiss and perhaps several attacks later on during the game. the "adjusting one move" thing shouldn't even have a direct comparison such as this when it involves a pokemon that actually turns things in its favor very quickly in a variety of situations unlike mandibuzz

the thing about having multiple checks to anything applies to a lot of threats in the tier. yes that's absolutely correct. but as django has shown, there's combined traits which makes it much more difficult to do against jynx. what i also want to add is something i mentioned like two or three times in this thread already lol but it's how limited these checks are. not only are they relatively poor in number, but most of them are rather mediocre and/or face stiff competition from other pokemon or sets. if you run multiple checks to jynx, you're just pushing yourself under more constraints compared to say running multiple checks to samurott or eelektross. the base speed is a large influence here because there's so many natural checks to samurott and eelektross. like what about choice band sawk at decent health?? that's not hard to stick on a team with your serperior or rotom-a or whatever your strongest answer to those pokemon are. it's not solely lovely kiss that differentiates jynx from samurott and eelektross, but it's a bunch of other traits that, when combined, make it an unseen force in nu

and i'm not sure where you're going with the jumpluff speed comparison but again i'll point to what django said about its /combined/ traits that make it different

 

[Lyren]

anything can be potentially beaten by a choice scarf pokemon. that's how revenge killing works. but naturally these are pokemon that can't switch in reliably to attacks so you're likely to bring in your choice scarf user after something else has fainted from being sacrified. this usually isn't a problem given the nature of how offense works in this generation, but it's kind of ridiculous when charizard sits at a base speed far too high compared to a majority of used pokemon to where it's slightly more difficult to revenge kill, which is why keeping up stealth rock is almost mandatory to have an easier time beating it. and yes it can beat lickilicky and miltank because it has focus blast—it only needs expert belt and/or hazards for the former. additionally, ampharos is merely a check as are so many other pokemon but the simple basis is that nothing is switching in with complete certainty and many pokemon like ampharos can be worn down with no reliable recovery. skuntank is a poor check as well because you're simply just forcing yourself into a coinflip situation with a reliance of stealth rock being present. not all charizard sets are all-out attackers and it can just roost, roar, swords dance, whatever while predicting your priority move. your calculations already simply show how unreliable it is when you're risking a 60% damage variation chance given all those guessing factors prior to actually making contact with sucker punch. this doesn't even account for the fact that skuntank is better off checking something like musharna but you had to lose it to a charizard

also regarding your comment about jynx checking rain teams, i would say that jynx is a rather mediocre check outside of perhaps switching into a water-type move and wasting one turn of rain, because it faces a 2HKO from giga drain, earth power, signal beam, and whatever other coverage moves are being used by swift swim pokemon. earthquake on seismitoad shouldn't even be a surprise either because it OHKOs jynx while hitting specially bulky grass-types slightly harder. in fact, prior to jynx and scolipede being in the tier, a ton of rain checks were more viable. think bulky ludicolo, mantine, regice, gardevoir. their usage plummeted from the presence of a smaller number of pokemon but they were perhaps more reliable ways to handle rain teams

this is not to say whether i agree or disagree with your stance but the reasoning behind this is faulty. i personally think it's difficult to say because as already aforementioned, we aren't in an environment where each single potential suspect was introduced one at a time. i suppose it's also difficult to decide because a lot of people didn't encourage charizard use back then

My point wasn't really directed at the imposing threat of Charizard, but rather that it shouldn't be suspected at the same time Jynx and Scolopede are. What I intended to convey is that the meta as a whole isn't quite so overwhelmed by Charizard with Jynx and Scolopede gone. I find it interesting that you mention Mantine, because that was the direction I meant to head with my rain comment--Pokes that can handle Charizard rather well are simply outclassed and discouraged by Jynx. You made the comment about Metang which is related in that steel types trying to give the ice/psychic walling get screwed over by Charizard.

I should have prefaced my previous post with my intent: Teams don't always get to use their best option to check a threat late in the match, so having as many potential ways to beat the threat as possible reduce the chance of your opponent achieving that particular wincon. The reason I used Skutank as my example wasn't that it's a good way to beat Charizard, but rather that it's just a popular team addition that can potentially win against Charizard. I was attempting to demonstrate that Zard was reasonably beatable even by things that aren't meant to fit that niche. I cannot recall who said it, but it was mentioned previously in this thread that "Unlike with Jynx, you can't just click pursuit on Charizard and have it be done," which is the other reason I used Skuntank; To a certain extent Charizard can be pursuit trapped. Sure it's quite costly and an ineffective way to handle the situation, but Charizard has to have a substantial amount of wear on most teams before it can completely tear it apart. That being said, I find using Charizard as a wincon a completely fair strategy as it reflects on the players ability to support it with the rest of their team. This differs from Jynx primarily because her checks are much more specific to beating her, and once removed she can handle a majority of the tier in 1v1.

 

[Raseri]

KK we're just going to vote on Scolipede and Jynx, not Charizard. Have fun :D