No longer very brief BH Reviews + Predicts
FlamPoke vs RoFnA
FlamPoke: MG Mirai + MG Fairyceus
RoFnA: NP MG Ghostceus
Both players loading slow wincons (or in RoFnA's case, ? wincon) suggests theres going to be a lot of BH pivoting happening, but it turns out that RoFnA's team is ill equipped to handle Mirai, especially with Registeel paraed and Mirai carrying Knock. Early on Etern is also potent since the Flutter Mane (presumably Purifying Salt? but could be Shield Dust) was unable to burn it, but was handled through careful dancing. Midgame RoFnA surprises by revealing NP on Ghostceus on a (un)fortunate timing when FlamPoke switched in Fairyceus, and FlamPoke straight up sacks Fairyceus, which I think he should've at least gone for roll with Celesteela (+2 252 SpA Spooky Plate Arceus-Ghost Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Celesteela: 177-208 (44.4 - 52.2%) -- 17.6% chance to 2HKO). This is very unfortunate since Fairyceus was claimed to be potent with RoFnA's checks being pressured by Mirai. Mirai was able to claim Flutter later (it never revealed a Fairy move I genuinely don't know what last is) but loses tie to Korai (maybe should've sapped instead since STAB is HP based Denergy and opposing U-turn + Hallward stuff suggests U-turn) and then loses tie again to lose Mirai. FlamPoke tries to win with Etern later but doesn't get enough key para turns and loses tie against Imp.
pdt vs GhastlyPixie
pdt: Surge Zam
GhastlyPixie: Shield Dust Steelceus + Plate Etern + TSpikes
This game almost ended immediately because pdt gets knowledge diffed? by not going PDon immediately against Steelceus allowing it to boost into range of killing everything, then Tachyon being revealed which lets it live Metal Burst!! pdt plays his only out here which is bluffing specifically Armor Cannon with Zam (and if failing then going for tie with Ghostceus) which works and forces out Steelceus. Pixie is able to bring Arc back to heal up later, but loses it to the 3rd RegenVest of PDon due to not Knocking/chipping beforehand. Etern is then revealed to be NP Plate, which really cannot break triple RegenVest + Zam, and it also gets Knocked later so its extra not winning. Turn 29 Pixie reveals Toxic Spikes on Palkia which actually is insane in the matchup with no Poison and several key vulnerable Pokemon, but at this point she has nothing to win with that. Very unfortunate game because if Pixie played this more patiently waiting for TSpikes to go up and getting some Knocks she would've just won with Steelceus (the bluff is a bit hard to call, since pdt did look like they were setting up something), while pdt would've had to grind through way more for the Zam.
The Guy Who Has Many Alts vs Treeko928
The Guy Who Has Many Alts: NP FC Steelceus + Trademark Hallward MG Ho-Oh MG Yveltal Bounce TTar
Treeko928: Sun Webs HO
A surprisingly pivot-heavy and grindy game with a HO. Hallward's Steelceus being FC meant that Diancie was hard walled especially with limited longevity from LO. Kyogre was able to connect Webs, but it was removed by the terrifying RegenVest Mortal Blissey, Hallward tries to bounce these later but gets predicted on and loses a bunch of health on TTar, though this isn't that important as it has a terrible matchup into the HO. Growth PDon is revealed but it struggles to break through Prank Giratina, while Ghostceus cannot win the 1v1 against MG Ho-Oh. Hallward trying to duel PDon with Ho-Oh results in it losing a bunch of HP though, which becomes decently relevant in the future. Being on the backfoot Treeko goes for aggressive play with Kartana on Blissey, presumably to spinblock, but eats a Salt Cure. It SDs anyways with Speed Boost as supposed counter Steelceus comes in, except Hallward gets spooked and attempts to trade it off at worse and loses Steelceus to a sneaky DBond. Losing Steelceus is devastating as Diancie just wins. Hallward probably should've scouted once with Recover regardless of DBond since Salt Cure would finish Kartana anyways, and then sack useless mons like TTar and Ho-Oh, since Steelceus needed to be healthy for Diancie.
Osake vs QT
Osake: MG Flutter Debris Ghostceus
QT: Surge Zam Norm Ghostceus
I'm pretty sure Osake's team is an old quojova team last year that Osake loaded in Homefield vs Tech and modified for new meta, anyways. Early on Debris Ghostceus reveals and QT goes into Etern over Ting which ends up getting Knocked (relevant shortly). Etern Volt reveals Kyogre to be Ice Scales which makes it pretty weird for QT to go into Ghostceus immediately revealing Norm and attempting (and losing) the 1v1. The Kyogre being Leech Seed and thus healing on Etern makes it a threat, but luckily Osake makes a mistake and gets the Leftovers tricked away (if Etern had Sludge intact this Kyogre was out of the game). Side note if Etern tricked Registeel and ended with an AV then Kyogre probably just wins since no more Topsy, a blunder that I only realized later in a test. Osake then for some reason sacks the Ghostceus instead of going Registeel. Classic BH pivoting leads Zama to be poisoned and Zam comes in to do nothing. Osake's MGLO Flutter starts posing issues as the only SpD mon is knocked Ting, and claims Heatran. This opens up another turn for Zam to come in and it misses the read with Armor. QT is able to reduce Flutter threat by getting a big Knock with Zama, but then misses another read with Armor which lets in Kyogre, who starts posing problems before forced out by Psystrike Zam. Ghostceus manages to win the 1v1 against Kyogre this time but allows Flutter to heal up. Zam was able to claim another kill, taking a U-turn in the progress. Some more pivoting happens as both players dance around the opposing threat, until QT goes for a ~75% roll with Expanding Force and loses Zam and the game as Flutter wins. A messy game from both sides, Osake's Flutter is a stronger threat but he wasn't able to capitalize on it that much, while QT I think played hastily with their threats and lures.
rightclicker vs Ivar57
rightclicker: Screens HO
Ivar57: Screens HO
A very rare Screens mirror that leads to a rather interesting game as neither sides offensives mons are able to deal that much damage. As a result there is a lot of dancing around with threats, though this was never going to be extremely long since both sides got rocks up; also worth nothing here is that rightclicker's screens setter is Regen Zacian compared to Ivar's Prank Steela so if the game goes crazy long he will outlive the Steela. During this we see Ivar's TorchBurden PDon get neutralized by Prank Ygod while rightclicker's NP PDon get neutralized by Unaware Ghostceus. rightclicker is able to check with the Yveltal, but later ends up greeding a Jaw Lock against Celesteela, and ends up trapping itself with Diancie and picked off by ESpeed outprioing Prank PShot. Game is over at this point as Ivar's Ghostceus just wins. It is unsure whether Ivar had the win regardless since with Jaw Lock and the way it was played I'm tempted to call the Ygod last move Encore, which means Ghostceus just won the long term anyways.
TTTech vs SammyCe123
TTTech: Signature style team with mono breaker SG PDon
SammyCe123: Band Tinted Kartana + 2 TH users
With these two players you just know this game is going 3 digits. Early on first notable interaction is Sammy getting Cloak Imp knocked turn 2, which is like, 100% not what you are trying to do if you loaded it? especially against unscouted entire team of Tech. Then we see Sammy trying to take a Unaware 1v1 with Ghostceus against Kyogre and ends up burning recovers. TTTech then gets impatient (while loading this kind of team) and attempts to win with SG Mold PDon, which Sammy obviously prepped for with AS Korai, except it greeds a Mortal instead going for Sap and thus Sammy needs to sack a mon (Ghosty) before killing the PDon with Kartana. Kartana cannot easily break through Sap Fur Coat Ghostceus though, and Tech can't make good progress (Celesteela gets nothing into imposter) so its going to be a grind. Except it turns out that due to the (Scales) Etern being Sap and Kyogre having lefties, it does not win the 1v1 against Kyogre even with Thunder Cage. The game is still looking to be a slog with Kyogre low on PP, but Sammy misplays completely? against the Ghostceus, where he needed to first burn pp with Imped Steela, then get rocks off with Korai (mono removal btw) before attempting to PP stall between Imposter and Celesteela (requires maximizing sap healing, not burn it all really early).
Quinn vs quojova
Quinn: Band Tinted Kartana + SG PDon
quojova: Desodon + unknown Kartana probably Band Tinted
Game looks immediately one-sided as Quinn has a bunch of key mons operating entirely on Sap healing into a Chansey. Being desparate Quinn manages to trade both Dons, but this I feel is losing because PDon was a powerful wincon assuming Bolt Strike since Imposter is Blissey no Eviolite and Waterceus later confirmed to be Leftovers, so she just needed to win speed tie if Imposter is marginally chipped. We then enter the most miserable 90 turns as Quinn's Kartana is walled by Waterceus and Dialga-O is full Imp food.
Betticus IV vs damflame 3
Betticus IV: Unknown Diancie (looks like PDon improof)
damflame 3: Actually HO
The somewhat Balance looking damflame team turns out to be a HO team with TorchBurden PDon revealed immediately as damflame expects no checks, but is foiled by Unaware Ghostceus. Etern gets rocks and Gambits into Regi which doesn't kill due to prior Judgment chip on Etern. Norm Flutter comes in but is stopped by Zamazenta especially as it is Spooky Plate in a seemingly crazy read. Knock on Solgaleo removes Ability Shield and reveals Fur Coat. Betticus greeds Rocks into Ghostceus but runs into Simple and needs to sack a mon (hindsight should be Diancie, Betticus information also should lead to Diancie) but Betticus misses the Simple and sacks the check, Etern. This forces another sack of the Ghostceus before forcing out with Diancie, but now the PDon looks scary and the Ghostceus is still alive. Norm Flutter is extra doing nothing as Registeel also pulls out Rev Dance. damflame's PDon looks to force a kill, but Betticus smoothly checks it with max speed Flip Turn PDon while minimizing losses with some daring predicts. This turns out to be very useful as Regi lives and removes the threatening Ghostceus (if it had recovery, which it might not have). Flutter ends up trolled again by the Ability Shield Zama but its unknown why he didn't kill the Zama. It doesn't affect the game though, as Registeel in on Solgaleo means Salt Cure goes up and Solg cannot kill PDon without being dead itself, and PDon Sap stalls Victory Dance.
Last week 18-6 step aside
Osake
Charming Charizzards (4) vs (4) Commanders
AAA:
ghostlike vs mielke
ghostlike seems like he can fish harder than Kinetic and if Kinetic got a fish last week he should too.
BH: XxLazzerpenguinxX vs
quojova
Zards BH is not doing that hot, although I think Hallward did really well last week so I'm a bit surprised that he's back on the bench already. Wasnt a huge fan of quojova's team last week and he kind of just beat up a worse team but his opponent here is absolutely doing worse.
Camo:
Siamato vs Mossy Sandwich
This is a highlight, Mossy got put up a fight last week by THR in terms of gameplay while Siamato despite getting crit early proceeded to get some serious RNG so I think he has some blessings.
GG: Shadow079 vs
entrocefalo
I think the "secret" builder of entro will be able to make a playable matchup at worse and that should be enough for a win.
MnM: qways vs
hayedenn
hayedenn seems to either get good matchups or creates the good matchups in game through mind control and rng control.
PiC: yuki vs
Chris32156
yuki actually is cooking stuff so I was wrong about tour investment because that is definitely investment, but Chris has been very solid and has more durable support.
STAB:
Clem vs seth
Clem seems to still intact in the tier and seth didn't claim a kill on Ttar the only Thund check for some reason.
Bo3:
Osake vs damflame 3
Osake seems more invested in the slot than damflame (kind of lazy HO and reusing a stall from like last year for mnm?) and also has acquired the mind control ability.
Noxious Nightshades (5) vs (3) Rage Fist and Furious
AAA:
adriancosmoem vs subzero_slammer
Idt subzeroslammer did that bad for a first time slotted, but the slot is still struggling and adrian is like on a roll rn.
BH: RoFnA vs
Ivar57
Ivar seems like the most invested player on his team, even stepping out to run HO that he probably also built, and RoFnAs team last week still looks like some Hallward build and its not even a good Hallward build.
Camo:
DragonPhoenix333 vs blittius
I think DP had a bad mu but the team is also just surely sketch if the fastest mon is Lokix. blittius got swept completely by PZ. Given that both sides had a bad time last week I'll lean DP just because outside build is more likely to go wrong compared to self build.
GG:
Iride vs pannu
pannu is 100% checked out rn.
MnM: Itoshiflwr vs
Glory
Glory is doing good both in build and in game. Itoshiflwr last week's plays werent the most inspiring and builds seem to be lacking to be loading rain unless it was prep since it did have a decent matchup.
PiC:
SeaLife vs Frixel
I'm pretty sure SeaLife did not play very well last week, but Frixel is like 100% checked out of this tour to be loading another 2 year old team.
STAB:
The Strap vs sky
Strap had some fascinating mons last week that didn't even get to be played. sky got bailed by Flame Body and had to be reminded to relist.
Bo3: GigaBytes7 vs
SammyCe123
This Bo3 thing is not working out for the Nightshades. Sammy tilted last week after the set which seems uncharacteristic of him and could be a bad sign. This is probably syndromes after playing OU in World Cup.
MOCCing Machamps (4) vs (4) Ao No Hakamo-o
AAA:
Kinetic vs O1V7O2X9O
Kinetic definitely got a lot of style points last week, and O1 though is doing well I don't think has been doing as well.
BH:
Quinn vs rightclicker
I really did not like Quinn's build last week and I think rightclickers is boring af and very expectable at this point but was still better. However I think in game Quinn can probably swindle and I don't think matchup will be overwhelming in one side.
Camo: The Hisui Region vs
jb291
Reportedly jb doesn't even need to prep to annihilate his opponents with prep. THR has been doing decently in game but I think the builds need work? This is probably close but I'm going to bold the side that swept with PZ vs the side that lost to PZ.
GG:
Mindnight vs Nashrock
This is actually kind of highlight because both players have been good. I'm going to reluctantly bold Mindnight because his game looked more impressive than Nashrock attempting to aura farm with Happiny then it doing nothing and ending up winning with CM Tera Arc.
MnM: ExguardiaN vs
zastra
zastra might just throw again after getting a winning position but I don't really understand Machamps specific lineup choice that led them to this because I'm pretty sure I've not seen ExguardiaN play MnM.
PiC:
Chromate vs LogIce
LogIce is actually doing good too and Chromate lost, but I think despite losing he still had a playable game and misplayed in complex position? which makes me slightly favour them.
STAB: Baddy vs
xdRudi.exe
I think Baddy kind of got bailed and Rudi got bailed against which makes me lean latter.
Bo3: seraphz vs
TTTech
Not really sure why Betticus got benched, unless it was due to SF Hurricane Torn which I'm not even sure how that passed the builder check, because he's been mostly playing fine and I expected at worse to be just rotated to another slot. Anyways Tech is on fire fire and seems like the only Bo3 player enjoying themself, seraphz wanted to play Bo3 re: signup so he could be strongly motivated, but BH is a weak link especially with lack of team support, and Tech's other tiers have looked solid too, including seraphz main tier of MnM.
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