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Open Setup Classic Mafia - Game Thread

Maybe I’m too small brained for this but why as town would we not lynch one of the confirmed maf

I feel like doing otherwise is throwing but maybe I misunderstand wolf role

Explain like I’m 5
 
phoopes said:
Maybe I’m too small brained for this but why as town would we not lynch one of the confirmed maf

I feel like doing otherwise is throwing but maybe I misunderstand wolf role

Explain like I’m 5
Click to expand...

Because werewolf is super swingy and who they shoot can decide outcome of the game, we basically can theoretically force them into a situation where they must shoot mafia or auto lose
 
phoopes said:
Maybe I’m too small brained for this but why as town would we not lynch one of the confirmed maf

I feel like doing otherwise is throwing but maybe I misunderstand wolf role

Explain like I’m 5
Click to expand...
Hal's idea is that if we vote someone in the POE today, we end up in exactly the same scenario as if we voted one of the known mafia members today, except that we would have taken one additional shot at the POE

I think he is correct on this but I am still evaluating in my head
 
joey said:
Hal's idea is that if we vote someone in the POE today, we end up in exactly the same scenario as if we voted one of the known mafia members today, except that we would have taken one additional shot at the POE

I think he is correct on this but I am still evaluating in my head
Click to expand...

He’s not because we can force 2-1-1 if we vote the actual mafia worst case scenario which is kingmake
 
I mean if mafia want to actually get involved you can you literally can eliminate all the risk here for us and survive and then guarantee we vote you and celever next and suddenly you get f3 lylo with an undiscovered member
 
Right now, we are at 6-3-1 (T-M-W)

Suppose we vote out mafia (say for example cel): 6-2-1
Two town gets shot: 4-2-1
We vote out second mafia (for example fairy): 4-1-1
Two town gets shot: 2-1-1

So we enter into 4p lylo with 2 town, 1 mafia, 1 werewolf. This is the baseline situation.

NOW, LISTEN

There are five people who are unclaimed/unchecked: Tommy, broil, airc, realiti, scarycary.

If we hit the third mafia: then we follow the same schedule as above BUT IN THE 4P LYLO, WE KNOW WHO THE MAFIA IS. So this is an improvement

If we hit werewolf, then we go to 6-3, then 5-2, then 4-1 which is great because we get a mislynch. This is best case scenario.

If we hit TOWN, this is the important thing, we STILL end up in 2-1-1 which is the baseline situation above. WHY?
We go into night 5-3-1
Two town get shot: 3-3-1
WW is forced to vote with town: 3-2-1
ON THIS NIGHT, WEREWOLF MUST SHOOT MAFIA
BECAUSE ALLOWING 1-2-1 IS A MAFIA WIN, BECAUSE BOTH MAFIA INSTA-VOTE WEREWOLF

Which means we exit the night at 2-1-1, which is the baseline situation above.

But it's actually BETTER than the baseline situation above because we have one fewer town in that group of 5 which contains a maf and a WW
 
ok i've convinced myself and we are voting one of Tommy, broil, airc, realiti, scarycary

We will NOT be voting users {a fairy, celever} at this current juncture

Please talk through it yourselves
 
apricity said:
If we hit werewolf, then we go to 6-3, then 5-2, then 4-1 which is great because we get a mislynch. This is best case scenario.
Click to expand...

If we hit werewolf sure this is way better for both town and mafia, but then mafia should just give us the name because they know it so honestly they could end this discussion now if they are trying to win ngl lmao
 
Tommy can't count, he had an irish education.

I'm correct.

Please build cases and scumhunt -- we are voting one of {tommy, broil, airc, realiti, scarycary} today

I will be playing arceus until I black out I will check in in 24 hours
 
If we can vote werewolf today it’s straight up better for sure 100 percent

If we don’t hit werewolf and actually hit town instead I think we are more fucked than Hal estimates, because he is relying on the werewolf playing like a bot which can’t be guaranteed

It’s like when people get super optimal in smogon oc negotiations but then they throw the toys out of the pram because they don’t want to be used and abused

That being said if we are voting in Poe I think that is kind of important and we should base votes on who is likely to tryhard the win and also understand the mechanics enough to actually go for it
 
If we are voting in Poe therefore and we are forcing this then I would vote scary or airc

Me and realiti for sure go for the win and Joey also isn’t going to throw the toys, and understands the wincon and mechanics enough to know what he must do to win
 
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