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Project ORAS RU Victim of the Week V2, with enthusiasm!! (Week 77: Swords Dance Cacturne)

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Counter

Poliwrath (M) @ Leftovers
Ability: Water Absorb
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 SpD
Relaxed Nature
- Circle Throw
- Scald
- Rest
- Sleep Talk

Tanks every hit and Circle Throw it out. Only has problems if someone uses SD LO Play Rough or sth lol

%MrAldoPls:gimme some calcs mazary imo

+2 252+ Atk Absol Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Poliwrath: 214-252 (55.7 - 65.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
Gurdurr (M) @ Eviolite
Ability: Guts
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 4 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Mach Punch
- Drain Punch
- Knock Off
- Bulk Up

counter
Gurdurr can take any hit from an unboosted Absol, and can almost KO with Mach Punch, restore its HP with Drain Punch, can setup on it, or Knock Off the switch in should the opponent switch out. It is effective because LO Absol gets worn down fairly easily, and having a priority move in Mach Punch with nice defenses makes this Pokemon a monster.
 
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Defensive Granbull as a counter

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Granbull @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 248 HP / 8 Atk / 252 Def
Impish Nature
- Play Rough
- Earthquake / Fire Punch
- Heal Bell / Thunder Wave / Roar
- Heal Bell / Thunder Wave / Roar

+1 252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Granbull: 147-173 (38.3 - 45.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery (I have no clue as why the PS calculator is taking into consideration Leftovers recovery after a Knock Off :/ )

8 Atk Granbull Play Rough vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Absol: 344-408 (126.9 - 150.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Being a sturdy Fairy-type with Intimidate helps dealing with Absol even if it's at +2 (becoming only a +1 due to fairy dog's ability). Barring a boosted Play Rough or, God forbid, Iron Tail, Granbull can take on any attack from Absol and retaliate with its Fairy-type STAB.

Also CB Granbull is more of a hard check since a +1 Knock Off + Sucker Punch from Absol will kill the dog (+1 252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 212 HP / 0 Def Granbull: 214-253 (57.2 - 67.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO and +1 252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Sucker Punch vs. 212 HP / 0 Def Granbull: 177-209 (47.3 - 55.8%) -- 78.5% chance to 2HKO)
 
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Reserving Hitmontop

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Hitmontop @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 252 HP / 148 Def / 108 SpD
Impish Nature
- Close Combat
- Toxic
- Foresight
- Rapid Spin

Hitmontop is a counter. While Top has a lot more competition as a spinner because of Blastoise, it still does well against a fair number of threats, checking Tyrantrum, Mega Glalie, and can revenge Mega Abomasnow. Absol's another thing that it's good for. The set can come in on any of its attacks or a Swords Dance and then OHKO. It can't switch in very many times, so it's best if you've got some hazards up.

0 Atk Hitmontop Close Combat vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Absol: 374-444 (138 - 163.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

-1 252 Atk Life Orb Absol Superpower vs. 252 HP / 148+ Def Hitmontop: 94-110 (30.9 - 36.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 252 Atk Life Orb Absol Superpower vs. 252 HP / 148+ Def Hitmontop: 208-246 (68.4 - 80.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
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aromatisse.gif

Aromatisse @ Leftovers
Ability: Aroma Veil
EVs: 252 HP / 244 Def / 12 Spe
Bold Nature
- Wish
- Protect
- Moonblast
- Aromatherapy

Role: Counter

Aromatisse can switch in on even some boosted attacks, and easily OHKOs with Moonblast.

252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 244+ Def Aromatisse: 101-120 (24.8 - 29.5%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Superpower vs. 252 HP / 244+ Def Aromatisse: 83-97 (20.4 - 23.8%) -- possible 6HKO after Leftovers recovery

0 SpA Aromatisse Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Absol: 306-360 (112.9 - 132.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
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Emboar @ Leftovers
Ability: Reckless
EVs: 252 HP / 4 Atk / 252 Def
Impish Nature
- Will-O-Wisp
- Superpower
- Flare Blitz
- Protect

Emboar (specifically the BigPig defensive set) is a check to Absol. Emboar resists both of Absol's STAB moves and with all the defense investment, can survive even a +2 Superpower. Emboar can OHKO Absol with Superpower or if Absol decides to Sucker Punch, you can predict that and burn Absol with Will-O-Wisp, crippling the Disaster Pokemon. BigPig has other uses than checking Absol as well, being a great check to threats like Durant.

+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Emboar: 351-413 (82.7 - 97.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Emboar: 212-250 (50 - 58.9%) -- 77% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Emboar: 175-207 (41.2 - 48.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

4 Atk Emboar Superpower vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Absol: 468-552 (172.6 - 203.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
Reserving Qwilfish Qwilfish for Check


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Bloat (Qwilfish) (M) @ Black Sludge
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 80 HP / 252 Def / 176 Spe
Impish Nature
- Taunt
- Waterfall
- Thunder Wave
- Spikes


Qwilfish is only a check here really, i mean it can take out Absol easily enough w/o any investments in Atk but, the real reason its here is to stop it from setting up more and cripple it for the better of your team. With the 176 Spe Ev it creeps on Absol so you get get off any form of Status move safely and first, taunt to stop a Swords Dance if he think he can get it off, and T-Wave to cripple his already woeful speed, and will the amount of damage the Qwilfish takes you can even set up a layer of spikes if you feel so inclined.

However, keep in mind that all of that only applies if Absol doesnt have a Swords Dance up, if he does then, the most you can do is just switch Qwilfish in and out to just drop the Atk with intimidate.

Qwilfish > Absol

0 Atk Qwilfish Waterfall vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Absol: 126-148 (46.4 - 54.6%) -- 64.5% chance to 2HKO

Absol > Qwilfish

At -1 from intimidate.
-1 252+ Atk Absol Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 80 HP / 252+ Def Qwilfish: 102-120 (35 - 41.2%) -- 66% chance to 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
-1 252+ Atk Absol Sucker Punch vs. 80 HP / 252+ Def Qwilfish: 84-99 (28.8 - 34%) -- 98.3% chance to 4HKO after Black Sludge recovery
-1 252+ Atk Absol Pursuit vs. 80 HP / 252+ Def Qwilfish: 42-51 (14.4 - 17.5%) -- possible 9HKO after Black Sludge recovery
-1 252+ Atk Absol Superpower vs. 80 HP / 252+ Def Qwilfish: 41-49 (14 - 16.8%) -- possible 9HKO after Black Sludge recovery

After 1 Swords Dance then -1 from Intimidate
+1 252+ Atk Absol Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 80 HP / 252+ Def Qwilfish: 226-267 (77.6 - 91.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
+1 252+ Atk Absol Sucker Punch vs. 80 HP / 252+ Def Qwilfish: 186-220 (63.9 - 75.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
+1 252+ Atk Absol Pursuit vs. 80 HP / 252+ Def Qwilfish: 93-111 (31.9 - 38.1%) -- 0.7% chance to 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
+1 252+ Atk Absol Superpower vs. 80 HP / 252+ Def Qwilfish: 93-110 (31.9 - 37.8%) -- 0.2% chance to 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
 
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Check
hariyama.png

Hariyama @ Assault Vest
Ability: Thick Fat
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 Def / 252 SpD
Adamant Nature
- Close Combat
- Knock Off
- Heavy Slam
- Fake Out

Can win 1v1 plus can switch in on Absol's Dark STAB. SD or Superpower though aren't good for it.

252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hariyama: 170-200 (39.6 - 46.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hariyama: 157-186 (36.5 - 43.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Absol Superpower vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hariyama: 279-330 (65 - 76.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Absol Swords Dance vs. Hariyama: 0-0 (0 - 0%) -- nice move

252+ Atk Hariyama Close Combat vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Absol: 614-726 (226.5 - 267.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
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Audino-Mega @ Audinite
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 248 HP / 252 Spa / 8 Spe
Modest Nature
- Fire Blast
- Dazzling Gleam
- Surf
- Healing Wish

Thank you so much Aldo for not giving Absol Iron Tail.

Mega Audino is a Check, mostly due to the fact that Absol can superpower this on the switch in before you mega. Mega Audino has extreme bulk [103/126/126] and resistance to dark so you can take pretty much anything and Gleam OHKO's because Absol is literally made of paper.
 
Alright, time to update this.

Counter: Granbull (Don Honchkrorleone) | Aromatisse (Michaeloche) | Gurdurr (Arifeen)
Check: Mega Audino (Miyami~~) | Emboar (BrandonBeast) | Qwilfish (GreasyXSpoon)
Special mention: Poliwrath (Mazar) | Hitmontop (Ping_Pong_Along)
​
Thanks again for your participation.
​
Victim of this new week goes to:

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Accelgor @ Life Orb
Ability: Sticky Hold
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 29 HP / 0 Atk
- Giga Drain / Energy Ball / Spikes
- Bug Buzz
- Sludge Bomb
- Focus Blast

One of my favorite sets in this generation, crazy good at it. It was about time.

New reservation rule: If you gonna reserve something, please do it, Ill give 36 hours to update your reservation, if you miss to update your post during the time, your reservation is up for grabs.

Discuss and have fun!
 
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Fletchinder
Ability: Gale Wings
EVs: 152 HP / 252 Atk / 104 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Acrobatics
- Swords Dance
- Will-O-Wisp
- Roost

Fletchinder is a hard check to Accelgor. It lives everything Accelgor can throw at it (Unless HP Rock ofc) and kills it with priority Acrobatics. Not much else to add here.

252+ Atk Fletchinder Acrobatics (110 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Accelgor: 548-648 (182 - 215.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Sludge Bomb vs. 152 HP / 0 SpD Fletchinder: 179-212 (59 - 69.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
 
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Diancie @ Leftovers
Ability: Clear Body
EVs: 252 HP / 4 Atk / 252 SpD
Sassy Nature
- Heal Bell
- Diamond Storm
- Stealth Rock
- Moonblast

This thing is an absolute monster. Already, it's a lead, and since Accelgor is usually a lead [especially if they're running Spikes] it can already get itself in with Accelgor in a lead vs lead scenario. While already being capable of getting in when Accelgor is on the field, it can also switch in to any move Accelgor has.

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Giga Drain vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Diancie: 99-117 (32.5 - 38.4%) -- 1.5% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Energy Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Diancie: 117-138 (38.4 - 45.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Diancie: 77-91 (25.3 - 29.9%) -- 0% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Bug Buzz vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Diancie: 43-51 (14.1 - 16.7%) -- possible 9HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Diancie: 58-69 (19 - 22.6%) -- possible 6HKO after Leftovers recovery

Based on these calcs, Diancie can switch into absolutely any attack Accelgor has, take another one, and then OHKO with Diamond Storm. There is nothing Accelgor can do to avoid this, especially if they don't have Energy Ball. All they can do is switch out.

4 Atk Diancie Diamond Storm vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Accelgor: 440-518 (146.1 - 172%) -- guaranteed OHKO

All Accelgor can do is switch out. Diancie can come in at any time, take any attack Accelgor could possibly have, and OHKO under any circumstance while still being able to set up rocks and heal your team, making sure it's not useless against teams without Accelgor.

That's the definition of a counter, right?
 
Reserving Delphox Delphox for Check.

latest



Delphox @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Blaze
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Fire Blast / Flamethrower
- Psyshock
- Grass Knot
- Trick


Delphox is only really a check here, and not much more, the Scarf is needed to out speed Accelgor, Fire blast makes the OHKO but can be inaccurate and Flamethrower does the job w/o risk of missing. The other moves on this set are just for coverage.

Delphox > Accelgor

252 SpA Delphox Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Accelgor: 494-584 (164.1 - 194%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Delphox Flamethrower vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Accelgor: 408-480 (135.5 - 159.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Accelgor > Delphox

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Bug Buzz vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Delphox: 160-188 (54.9 - 64.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Sludge Bomb vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Delphox: 107-126 (36.7 - 43.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Focus Blast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Delphox: 70-83 (24 - 28.5%) -- 98.5% chance to 4HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Energy Ball vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Delphox: 53-62 (18.2 - 21.3%) -- possible 5HKO
 
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escavalier.gif

Escavalier @ Assault Vest
Ability: Overcoat
EVs: 248 HP / 176 Atk / 84 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Megahorn
- Iron Head
- Pursuit
- Knock Off / Drill Run

Role: Counter

Escavalier thanks Accelgor for the armor it had as a Shelmet and proceeds to wall the crap out of it, especially when sporting an Assault Vest. In return, both of Escavalier's STAB moves OHKO Accelgor (although Iron Head needs a small bit of prior damage to guarantee it), and even Pursuit does a good chunk of damage should it try to run away.

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Energy Ball vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Assault Vest Escavalier: 17-19 (4.9 - 5.5%) -- possibly the worst move ever
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Focus Blast vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Assault Vest Escavalier: 91-108 (26.5 - 31.4%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Bug Buzz vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Assault Vest Escavalier: 51-61 (14.8 - 17.7%) -- possible 6HKO

176+ Atk Escavalier Megahorn vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Accelgor: 427-504 (142.8 - 168.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
176+ Atk Escavalier Iron Head vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Accelgor: 286-337 (95.6 - 112.7%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
176+ Atk Escavalier Pursuit (80 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Accelgor: 191-225 (63.8 - 75.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

By the way, the "m" in my name is not capitalized, so I missed the tag.
 
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Reserving Rotom-S

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Rotom-Fan @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
EVs: 248 HP / 252 Def / 8 SpA
Bold Nature
- Air Slash
- Will-O-Wisp
- Thunderbolt
- Pain Split

Rotom-S is a hard check / soft counter. It can switch into any of Accelgor's attacks, survive a hit, and OHKO after rocks damage. Kind of an odd one considering it's physically defensive, but it has good typing for it. Immunity to Spikes is nice too. I'd be really reluctant to switch Rotom-S in though unless I was positive it's not running Final Gambit.

8 SpA Rotom-S Air Slash vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Accelgor: 258-306 (85.7 - 101.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Sludge Bomb vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Rotom-S: 101-120 (33.3 - 39.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Bug Buzz vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Rotom-S: 75-90 (24.7 - 29.7%) -- 1% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Focus Blast vs. 248 HP / 0 SpD Rotom-S: 66-79 (21.7 - 26%) -- 88.8% chance to 4HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
 
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Golbat @ Eviolite
Ability: Infiltrator
EVs: 248 HP / 252 Def / 8 SpD
Impish Nature
- Defog
- Roost
- Brave Bird
- Toxic

Golbat hard counters LO Accelgor, resisting every given move and taking very little damage from them. With Defog, Golbat can remove Spikes comfortably if Accelgor has them, and retaliate back by cleanly KOing with Brave Bird. Roost allows this little guy to stay healthy, and lets Golbat serve as a consistent response to LO Accelgor throughout the course of a game. Other than that, there's not much else to say! For the sake of it, below are some calcs. Everything besides Sludge Bomb is mentioned as "possibly the worst move ever" on PS!
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Bug Buzz vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Eviolite Golbat: 32-39 (9 - 11%)

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Sludge Bomb vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Eviolite Golbat: 44-53 (12.4 - 15%)

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Focus Blast vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Eviolite Golbat: 29-35 (8.2 - 9.9%)

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Energy Ball vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Eviolite Golbat: 22-26 (6.2 - 7.3%)
 
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Amoonguss as a hard check

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Amoonguss @ Black Sludge
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 252 HP / 160 Def / 96 SpD
Bold Nature
- Spore
- Giga Drain
- Sludge Bomb / Synthesis
- Clear Smog / Synthesis

Amoonguss is a great defensive pokemon in the tier, and it doesn't make an exception of Accelgor. While you could argue that you might want to put more ev's in its sp.def, it doesn't necessarily need it against Accelgor, and I wanted to post a set that could take on physical threats too. Accelgor's most powerful move to hit Amoonguss is his STAB bug buzz, which will fail to knock out Amoonguss in 3 hits. Amoonguss can retaliate with SludgeBomb which is a guaranteed 2 hit KO after 2 rounds of life orb and has a fairly high chance to poison the opponent too. Whether this is a hard check or a counter, is up for debate. Clear Smog or Sludge Bomb may be swapped for Synthesis to be extra sure.

Calcs:

Accelgor vs. Amoonguss:

252 SpA Accelgor Bug Buzz vs. 252 HP / 96 SpD Amoonguss: 132-156 (30.5 - 36.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Black Sludge recovery
252 SpA Accelgor Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 96 SpD Amoonguss: 58-69 (13.4 - 15.9%) -- possibly the worst move ever
252 SpA Accelgor Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 96 SpD Amoonguss: 88-104 (20.3 - 24%) -- possible 6HKO after Black Sludge recovery

Amoonguss vs. Accelgor:

0 SpA Amoonguss Sludge Bomb vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Accelgor: 127-151 (42.4 - 50.5%) -- 1.2% chance to 2HKO

Thank you for reading,

-Maurits
 
MrShroom said:
Reserving Golbat
Click to expand...
Infernal said:
042MS.png
Golbat @ Eviolite
Ability: Infiltrator
EVs: 248 HP / 252 Def / 8 SpD
Impish Nature
- Defog
- Roost
- Brave Bird
- Toxic

Golbat hard counters LO Accelgor, resisting every given move and taking very little damage from them. With Defog, Golbat can remove Spikes comfortably if Accelgor has them, and retaliate back by cleanly KOing with Brave Bird. Roost allows this little guy to stay healthy, and lets Golbat serve as a consistent response to LO Accelgor throughout the course of a game. Other than that, there's not much else to say! For the sake of it, below are some calcs. Everything besides Sludge Bomb is mentioned as "possibly the worst move ever" on PS!
252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Bug Buzz vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Eviolite Golbat: 32-39 (9 - 11%)

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Sludge Bomb vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Eviolite Golbat: 44-53 (12.4 - 15%)

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Focus Blast vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Eviolite Golbat: 29-35 (8.2 - 9.9%)

252 SpA Life Orb Accelgor Energy Ball vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Eviolite Golbat: 22-26 (6.2 - 7.3%)
Click to expand...
Sorry my friend.
 
Time to update this

Counter: Escavalier (michaeloche) | Golbat (Infernal) | Diancie (Miyami~~)
Check: Fletchinder (BrandonBeast) | Rotom-Spin (Ping_Pong_Along) | Delphox (GreasyXSpoon)
Special mention: Amoonguss (mauritsfb) | Charizard (KidMagic)
​
Im always grateful for your participation :D

Victim of this week is:

kabutops.gif


Kabutops @ Lum Berry / Life Orb
Ability: Weak Armor
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Swords Dance
- Aqua Jet
- Waterfall
- Stone Edge

Really solid set that can easily take advantage of fletchinder, decent dual STAB all around and weak armor is clutch. Have fun!
 
quagsire-f.png

Quagsire @ Leftovers
Ability: Unaware
EVs: 252 HP / 108 Def / 148 SpD
Relaxed Nature
- Recover
- Earthquake
- Toxic
- Scald

As a counter, a wall that resist both of Kabutops's hardest hitting STAB. With Unaware is doesn't take any more damage from a +4 Waterfall than it would from a +0 Waterfall. It can use any of its moves as none of them have a downside with EQ hitting super effectively, Scald having the chance to burn and the other two can just straight out stall Kabutops.

Quagsire is a true Counter

0 Atk Quagsire Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Kabutops: 182-216 (69.7 - 82.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 Atk Life Orb Kabutops Waterfall vs. 252 HP / 108 Def Quagsire: 157-187 (39.8 - 47.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
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