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NOC Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Mafia - Explorers - Game Thread (Game Over!)
- Thread starter charlieum
- Start date
I can have hope yeah?
celever is saying that, assuming mafia has 4 players, we are at 9 v 4 rn.
If we vote out town today + maf kill, that's 7 v 4
If we vote out town today + maf kill again, that's 5 v 4 and LYLO
however, if i am scum!mayor, mafia can hammer at 5v4 and win immediately, meaning LYLO would be one phase earlier
this is why he thinks i am the safe vote which is... not unreasonable tbh but im town so
If we vote out town today + maf kill, that's 7 v 4
If we vote out town today + maf kill again, that's 5 v 4 and LYLO
however, if i am scum!mayor, mafia can hammer at 5v4 and win immediately, meaning LYLO would be one phase earlier
this is why he thinks i am the safe vote which is... not unreasonable tbh but im town so
My thing with hydro -- he hasn't done a whole lot but I don't really scum read him tbh. I remember mostly wrote him off on role but
i might reread him after I wake up from sleep.
well no ok I see your point, Laurel isn’t the safe play he’s the risky play because Laurel won’t throw at MYLO if he’s town (historically he actually clutches at MYLO more often than most, though that applies to Hydro too)
Neon and Shane are the “looks like they’re gonna throw at MYLO” players. Hydro is the “wins at LYLO thanks to his role if he’s scum” player. Laurel is just the scummiest player in the game.
The safe play categories are the first two. Laurel is the mid risk high reward category, though of course any of the other 3 could be scum too.
Neon and Shane are the “looks like they’re gonna throw at MYLO” players. Hydro is the “wins at LYLO thanks to his role if he’s scum” player. Laurel is just the scummiest player in the game.
The safe play categories are the first two. Laurel is the mid risk high reward category, though of course any of the other 3 could be scum too.
And that’s fair, I’m talking mech here rather than reads. I do scumread him anyway, but this conversation is all mechMy thing with hydro -- he hasn't done a whole lot but I don't really scum read him tbh. I remember mostly wrote him off on role but
I tend to synthesize the two
When you add onto this that Shane is only voting for me, scum actually win at 6 v 4 if Shane is town. When you add onto THAT that Neon is likely to vote town, it’s feasible that if you’re scum and Shane and Neon are both town, we straight up lose tomorrowcelever is saying that, assuming mafia has 4 players, we are at 9 v 4 rn.
If we vote out town today + maf kill, that's 7 v 4
If we vote out town today + maf kill again, that's 5 v 4 and LYLO
however, if i am scum!mayor, mafia can hammer at 5v4 and win immediately, meaning LYLO would be one phase earlier
this is why he thinks i am the safe vote which is... not unreasonable tbh but im town so
Tbh I don't hard town anybody but dusk rn. Bd and jalmont are town leans.
And I thought about “is this world possible while Laurel is also town” but thanks to JALMONT’s vig claim it is, regardless of JALMONT’s alignment. I suppose unless M2H is scum roleblocker, cos she could just block JALMONT’s vig. But if mafia turbo Laurel today then JALMONT shoots one of them (and they run the risk of Shane or Neon genuinely just voting them out tomorrow for turboing it). Other side of it is that JALMONT doesn’t shoot any of the turboers and he’s town, and therefore gets voted out himself by Shane or Neon for not shooting a turboer.
In that case I do think you should be entertaining Hydro much more than you are, or Neon or Shane. These are the people who could make us lose early, though Neon and Shane are in a problematic position there because they make us lose early if they’re town, not scum lol. But that makes them very low risk vote outs because we don’t lose as much if they die and are actually town.
My only result was blue visiting me. Maybe as M2H said I'm wrong by trying to confirm he is town just by that but I still think he is probably town.
ImaginaryNeon
Since the start of the day 2 you have been at around 50% catch up progress. I think it's better if you just read the latest 20-30 or whatever pages and try to play half-blind that being always that far behind. We are in danger please step up if you aren't mafia.
I get kind of nervous around deadlines because too much information and too few time to analyze it. I still think my action on deadline of day 2 makes sense because I was the top wagon and the other two were a null/scumlean and a townread of me so voting genisu makes sense from my point of view. Sadly I agree that deadline of day 1 was bad from me.
I don't like analyzing based on vote results because we aren't perfect and make mistakes. Saber was town and has 2 towns as scum in his readlist for example. It can be good to support your theories though, like if you already suspect someone and their votes are way off then it makes sense to add that as an argument but never as an argument alone.
Not much has changed on my readlist besides no longer confirming blue and dropping him to probably town tier. Also I'm liking m2h a lot more today, that increases the likelihood of flanders scum based on my readlist.
The votes that I'm comfortable with are laurel and hh, I will probably vote one this round and the other next unless something big happens. I still kind of scumread jalmont (I think he is team with hh) but losing him if he was town would be worse than the other two even though I disagree in some things with his thought process, at least he tries. Our readlist are almost complete opposite though and I don't understand the comment on me and m2h being complete opposites.
I wouldn't oppose hard to a neon vote but I'd feel bad because I want him to play the game which he hasn't yet. Flanders is probably a decent target but I'd like to priorize laurel and hh.
i think we should vote celever or laurel here, both give me scum vibes
jalmont - i dont have a good meta read on jalmont, unfortunately.
celever - scum read, im stuck on the shane stuff and i've seen nothing worth shifting my thoughts
hyhy - hasn't been playing like i'd expect him to, but has rolled scum on this site and successfully played to expectations.
He just wants you to go fuck yourself, how hard is that to understand?
50% of the time it works every time
Saying no scumteam townreads each other at all is a bit of a stretch, but a scumteam of 4 probably doesn't all do that same thing.
Also a 1-player scumteam of fairy certainly does.
you can tell if someone moved and that's it
i find tracker to be unbearably useless so i'd rather have become a pseudo protecting in the endgame yes
i'd honestly probably vote HH over laurel here but celever is on HH so i'm kind of torn up over it
##vote HydrogenHydreigon
let's eat the red berries
let's eat the red berries