NOC Pokemon Mystery Dungeon NOCfia DX

Schiavetto

Schiavetto

is a Battle Simulator Staff Alumnus
Schiavetto said:
Yesterday I found myself getting annoyed with how disorganized things were. Between work and other obligations, I really cbf pouring energy into what was starting to feel mostly like watching chickens squabbling, so apologies for being scarce.

As for where we are now, I think this is a good time to revisit Haruno's concerns w/rt the lack of any detailed NKA yesterday (1005). I gave my immediate thoughts in 1012, but having had the chance to read through again after a second flip, I don't think we let go of it just yet. Nuxl starts poking and prodding at M2H here, after commenting on the flimsy lynchpool M2H offered in 306 (me, Lrr, and Caff)--and you can see where his posts start devolving from pocketing-HnD-with-real-time-interactions to apologetically-trying-to-get-nuxl-off-his-back.

Later, in 544, Nuxl calls out M2H and Caff for not voting (mind you, at that point, Clar was the leading wagon, with 3 votes on him). What's interesting to me there is that, up until that point, both players had been going well out of their way to avoid committing to a read on Clar--the moment they're met with substantial pushback from Nuxl, they both start falling apart. For M2H, the timeline is weak nullread on Clar (532) -> Nuxl callout (544) -> CW on me (577) -> the L-1 on Clar (642). Caff's progression is almost just as jarring, going from null!Clar (533) -> lynching Clar while teasing at a mislynch (548) -> doubling down on scum!Clar (563), still teasing mislynch.

What happened there, I think, is that they had been preparing a CW for Clar sooner, but Nuxl forced their hand early--which is why you get the fumbling around between then and the selfhammer. M2H attempted to the counterwagon, but with Caff on Clar, there was no way to pull it off without all three of them looking gross. So from there I'm pretty sure someone made the executive decision to go scorched earth and just throw Clar to the curb. If you look at it from that angle, things like Caff's unlynch-relynch on Clar make a lot more sense--it gives the wagon on Clar one last chance to die down in light of his "important role", it shuffles the vote order to obscure how the wagon (which had already been called out for building up too quickly) actually developed, and it makes the "Wait, I know your role" conversation look less like theatrics and more like an actual realization. I know it's been fun treating Panic! at the Station as the main proponent for lynch, but Nuxl really was the one who got the votes going--and taking him out of the picture would serve pretty well to hide that part of this discussion.

##VOTE: CaffeineBoost

I still don't love Haruno, but I'll chalk that up to tunnel vision on my part--Caff is the most likely partner here.
Panic's an evergreen, the D1 convo with Heal & M2H doesn't happen if Heal's scum, and 425>432>440-42 doesn't happen with scum!Lrr

I've seen Fen afk his way out of a cardboard box & TBZ get himself modkilled as doctor, so I refuse to read into activity there.
Click to expand...
Imagine a world where we did this instead of lynching TBZ for being a nerd.
 

SB.

Votals 4.1
(3) CaffeineBoost: Schiavetto, Lrr, Haruno (L-1!)
(1) Schiavetto: Mega-Pokebattlerz

(2) Not Voting: CaffeineBoost, Panic Station

Day 4 ends in ~50 hours. With 6 alive, it takes 4 to hammer early.
 
CaffeineBoost

CaffeineBoost

6th Best Circus Poster of 2023
is a Community Contributor
Lrr said:
So you have no opinion other than "anyone but me"
Click to expand...
I had opinions but they're kinda fucked rn because I think PS is town, I think you're probably town, and the person who I find most susp claimed Even Night Vig which makes me want to lynch them less because from my POV, we just win if we keep Schia alive.
I think both of the people I want to lynch within today are town but one of them has to be scum.

I'd like to vote Schia but I don't want to do anything until we have a plan to solve the game.
 
CaffeineBoost

CaffeineBoost

6th Best Circus Poster of 2023
is a Community Contributor
I'm not the lynch tonight for a game solve. If I'm lynched, we lose the tracker and the ability to confirm more townies. We have 1 confirmed town in 4 players.
As much as my gut says it's Schia, my head says it's probably somewhere within the VT's.
##Vote: Lrr
 
CaffeineBoost

CaffeineBoost

6th Best Circus Poster of 2023
is a Community Contributor
I don't suspect Paper. I've had him as town for this entire game. Mechanically however it has to be one of three people.
I think you've been more towny than he has but this is just a POE thing. If it's not Paper, it's probably you. If it's somehow neither of you then it's Schia. If it turns out to be a perma-ninja Mega... pfft, fuck knows.
Anyway, we can get through all of those by lynching either VT and having Schia shoot the other. We might be able to get through all of those by lynching Schia but idt that's watertight.
 
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