Prediction or Probabilities ?

[Mia [old]]

I think the most talented players use balanced stratagems, but in terms of team orientation as well as decision-making. Ideally, you want to play full prediction until you are able to achieve some kind of complete advantage. Then, that advantage is used to create a weakness in the opponents team. With only a few pivotal predictions, you can put the match in your favor very strongly. Therefore, prediction is more important than playing by probabilities, in my opinion. This assumes equal teams.

As for player talent, there is no reason you should ever underestimate any given player. Always do your best, and predict your opponent to the best of your ability.

 

[mbwood]

I would just DC because anyone that uses scizor is a (BAN ME PLEASE)

 

[animenagai]

I believe that there's too much of a reductionist approach to describing prediction.

The theory right now says that once you know things like how much damage fire blast does to zapdos, that a standard LO suicune will pack ice beam and can KO celebi after a CM etc. as well as having the guts to not just use the obvious move on a particular turn, you've reached the realistic ceiling of prediction.

However, this is not true, as even if you've reached that spot, there are still techniques you can pick up. How agressive is the opposing player? Does he/she constantly go for the kill? Do they play conservatively by narrowing down your move to 2-3 options? Do they like keeping death fodder? How many moves do they calculate in their thought process? What would sequence of plays be for them to win and do they know that?

My point is simple, you can tie in a lot of things into prediction. One can formulize a theory based on a player's skill level and type of play. It is not a simple duality between good and bad prediction.

 

[SmokingBomber465]

The probability of dragonite staying is slightly higher than scizor coming in.
The first perturbation sees an inexperienced player who will keep dragonite in. The second perturbation predicts a switch to scizor--a predicting player. The third pertutbation predicts staying with dragonite--a double prediction. An infinite number of perturbations go as -1^n where + is dragonite. We get one more dragonite on odd integers.

It is actually more beneficial to go with Dragon Pulse in any case--any dammage and a possible KO is better than you were last turn.

 

[mtr]

As for me, the thing is: at the start of a game, go for strong neutral strikes or U-turns. Hardcore prediction comes in midgame, and animenagai really nails why.

I can honestly state that overprediction has gotten me into way more trouble than underprediction. False positives hurt.

 

[lati0s]

The probability of dragonite staying is slightly higher than scizor coming in.
The first perturbation sees an inexperienced player who will keep dragonite in. The second perturbation predicts a switch to scizor--a predicting player. The third pertutbation predicts staying with dragonite--a double prediction. An infinite number of perturbations go as -1^n where + is dragonite. We get one more dragonite on odd integers.

that is actually false if you have n alternating possibilities and you randomly choose one, the limit as n approaches infinity of choosing either of them is exactly 1/2.

you also make the mistake of assuming all of these possibilities will occur with equal probability.

When predicting it is important to look at how your opponent has acted so far so that you can see what kind of player they are, do they take lots of risks? do they play conservatively? do they always out predict you? etc. this will help you understand thier thought process so you can make the correct choices to beat them.