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Tournament PUPL X - Week 6

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Vertigo

Vertigo

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m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (6) vs (4) The Gargantuan Golurks
SV: fish anemometer vs Seraphz
SV: Tuthur vs Taka
SV: Stories vs Bouff
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs BloodAce
SM: ManOfMany vs tom holland
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs crying
BW: Drud vs LpZ
DPP: BeatsBlack vs frankjosh
ADV: Monai vs A plague doc
Bo3: pdt vs justdrew

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SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (8) vs (2) 420 Houndstoners
SV: kyuss vs sufys
SV: Baloor vs Axrtix
SV: lax vs Feaniix
SS: Mada vs tier
SM: robjr vs Clementine
ORAS: Teddeh vs entrocefalo
BW: SergioRules vs Jisoo
DPP: Leni vs TONE
ADV: Parpar vs goldmason
Bo3: zS vs Piyu

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Haunter x Haunter (5) vs (5) Malignant Chain Snatchers
SV: MZ vs S1nn0hC0nfirm3d
SV: Floss vs Ampha
SV: Theia vs feen
SS: mj vs OranBerryBlissey10
SM: PTF vs sugar ovens
ORAS: tko vs Alice Kazumi
BW: Guille vs Tack
DPP: Heysup vs HSOWA
ADV: TyCarter vs plznostep
Bo3: DugZa vs Suzuya

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Goofy Goober Goodras (6) vs (4) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: ishtar vs Beraldo
SV: Django vs Larry
SV: asa vs DripLegend
SS: Meru vs gum
SM: Estarossa vs Hacker
ORAS: Aberforth vs Kiyo
BW: EviGaro vs triple axel blaze
DPP: JabbaTheGriffin vs sleid
ADV: Slowbroth vs Lily
Bo3: Thiago Nunes vs mncmt

The deadline for this round is Sunday, August 4th at 11:00 PM GMT -4.

m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (0) vs (0) The Gargantuan Golurks
SV: fish anemometer vs Seraphz
SV: Tuthur vs Taka
SV: Stories vs Bouff
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs BloodAce
SM: ManOfMany vs tom holland
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs crying
BW: Drud vs LpZ
DPP: BeatsBlack vs frankjosh
ADV: Monai vs A plague doc
Bo3: pdt vs justdrew

SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (0) vs (0) 420 Houndstoners
SV: kyuss vs sufys
SV: Baloor vs Axrtix
SV: lax vs Feaniix
SS: Mada vs tier
SM: robjr vs Clementine
ORAS: Teddeh vs entrocefalo
BW: SergioRules vs Jisoo
DPP: Leni vs TONE
ADV: Parpar vs goldmason
Bo3: zS vs Piyu

Haunter x Haunter (0) vs (0) Malignant Chain Snatchers
SV: MZ vs S1nn0hC0nfirm3d
SV: Floss vs Ampha
SV: Theia vs feen
SS: mj vs OranBerryBlissey10
SM: PTF vs sugar ovens
ORAS: tko vs Alice Kazumi
BW: Guille vs Tack
DPP: Heysup vs HSOWA
ADV: TyCarter vs plznostep
Bo3: DugZa vs Suzuya

Goofy Goober Goodras (0) vs (0) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: ishtar vs Beraldo
SV: Django vs Larry
SV: asa vs DripLegend
SS: Meru vs gum
SM: Estarossa vs Hacker
ORAS: Aberforth vs Kiyo
BW: EviGaro vs triple axel blaze
DPP: JabbaTheGriffin vs sleid
ADV: Slowbroth vs Lily
Bo3: Thiago Nunes vs mncmt
 
Week 2 prediction success: 21/30
Week 3 prediction success: 18/29
Week 4 prediction success: 16/26
Week 5 prediction success: 18/27

m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (5) vs (5) The Gargantuan Golurks
SV: fish anemometer vs Seraphz - if you ignore an activity win last week, Seraphz actually has a better record with similar win quality. I've been impressed with them this tour, but I've still gotta lean fish
SV: Tuthur vs Taka - also somewhat comparable tours but taka's hitting a good 3-0 streak rn
SV: Stories vs Bouff - looking strong vs looking stronger
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs BloodAce - I rate BloodAce in SS tiers and an OBB loss isn't too bad, but there's nothing to suggest a big upset is coming
SM: ManOfMany vs tom holland - having not played yet, tom is looking stronger
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs crying - I guess crying hasn't looked too bad when he's not bringing Meditite, but he's still having a worse tour
BW: Drud vs LpZ - big dog in the tier vs needed some bad throws to win last week
DPP: BeatsBlack vs frankjosh - highlight match. I think the superior support beats has might be a difference maker here
ADV: Monai vs A plague doc - I think if plague beats broth and loses every other week it would be very funny
Bo3: pdt vs justdrew - the moment pdt has a good week I'll be all for him again, but I wanna see it first

The only 2 positive players not even playing is crazy. RIP Stoners
SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (8) vs (2) 420 Houndstoners
SV: kyuss vs sufys - highlight for me personally, I think kyuss's style kinda does well into sufys so I wanna see what he comes up with
SV: Baloor vs Axrtix - I dunno? 50/50 here tbh. Similarly rough showings for both, last week was tough but I don't necessarily think Baloor's gonna choke like that again
SV: lax vs Feaniix - I still have no idea what to think of either of these players in SV, Loors have better overall SV ig
SS: Mada vs tier - glad to see tier back but until he gets a win I'm not bolding
SM: robjr vs Clementine - bw right into sm is kinda funny, tough matchups for clementine
ORAS: Teddeh vs entrocefalo - I don't blame avarice for bouncing but that's tough for the stoners
BW: SergioRules vs Jisoo - adv to bw is also kinda funny but sergio has not looked on his A-game
DPP: Leni vs TONE - better records
ADV: Parpar vs goldmason - better records
Bo3: zS vs Piyu - I don't blame Danny for bouncing but that's tough for the stoners

Goofy Goober Goodras (5) vs (5) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: ishtar vs Beraldo - highlight game. Now we're getting to the good stuff. Ishtar's having an off tournament and I don't think an upset would be too surprising. It wouldn't even be one based on records
SV: Django vs Larry - Larry's not looked quite as strong as the 4-0 would suggest (a free win, a last minute opponent choke), but this would be a pretty major upset for Django to pull off despite finally getting a win last week
SV: asa vs DripLegend - everything I said about ishtar applies to asa, Drip's just been having a tour that, while pretty good, isn't quite as good as Beraldo's. Plus I don't think Pranksters 3-0 SV and this is the one I'm predicting last
SS: Meru vs gum - If this happens I think gum's been mildly more solid
SM: Estarossa vs Hacker - not really seeing the Hacker SM vision but it's not too hard of a tier to be solid in and grab an upset
ORAS: Aberforth vs Kiyo - If I'm being honest both have been pretty bad this tour. Coinflip match
BW: EviGaro vs triple axel blaze - Upset by records, I still think a tilted Evi loading something pretty good from a couple years ago could do well, especially looking at triple axel blaze's relatively generic wins
DPP: JabbaTheGriffin vs sleid - big Jabba believer, sleid hasn't shown a ton
ADV: Slowbroth vs Lily - highlight game. one of them is gonna be 3-3? that's crazy. I have zero clue who to predict, going Lily because I would personally prefer goobers and pranksters tying
Bo3: Thiago Nunes vs mncmt - highlight set. doable for Thiago but mence is doing pretty well
 
mz is somehow getting faster than me what is this blasphemy

m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (5) vs (5) The Gargantuan Golurks
SV: fish anemometer vs Seraphz - just very very hard to bold against fish, don't think the seraphz upset is impossible by any means but mags sv will cook harder in the builder
SV: Tuthur vs Taka - taka's riding a hot streak and the tuth fairy's sv games just generally haven't been super inspiring for me
SV: Stories vs Bouff - aight i take it back they're figuring out sv just fine even if they loaded mono lose to decidueye last week
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs BloodAce - bloodace is good but i think it's a little too late in the season for him to pick up the momentum he needs for this one to pan out
SM: ManOfMany vs tom holland -total wild card here but generally have not liked what MoM's been up to this tour
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs crying -tkk has been having a better tour but i have a gut feeling crying's tech hits the mark this week
BW: Drud vs LpZ - drud is good at the game but lpz is that guy
DPP: BeatsBlack vs frankjosh - beats has just generally looked very at home in this tier so far, frank will be more than enough of a challenge for him though
ADV: Monai vs A plague doc - monai's been having a rough one and i think he can bounce back here
Bo3: pdt vs justdrew - never in my life did i think i'd look at a sheet where drew has more wins than pdt in the same pool, dear god please set the universe right

SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (8) vs (2) 420 Houndstoners
SV: kyuss vs sufys - sufys is like the only guy on his team who actually gives a shit LOL, think this will be a good game but loors are motivated for that playoff push
SV: Baloor vs Axrtix - loor will come through this week i believe, now is def the time for him to bounce back when playoff contention is on the line and he has a losing streak to break
SV: lax vs Feaniix - lax hasn't been inspiring me in sv at all but i also don't think feaniix has played this tier ever
SS: Mada vs tier - i am not high on tier acid
SM: robjr vs Clementine - after clem managed to throw that bw matchup i'm not bolding them again for a while
ORAS: Teddeh vs entrocefalo - avarice going to get milk and cigs is rough but i suppose this is a fine enough replacement
BW: SergioRules vs Jisoo - brother sergio you gotta get a win man please
DPP: Leni vs TONE - leni's actually been doing good for himself this tour and tone is 0-1
ADV: Parpar vs goldmason - parpar has also been dunking pretty hard this tour, dub vs lily last week is pretty cool
Bo3: zS vs Piyu - danny going to get milk and cigs is rough and this is a fine enough replacement but i don't think zs loses this one

Goofy Goober Goodras (5) vs (5) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: ishtar vs Beraldo - this is really close actually, but i generally haven't been liking ishtar's teams as much as baldo's and the records def reflect it
SV: Django vs Larry - larry 5-0 incoming probably
SV: asa vs DripLegend - feels insane to predict goobers sv going winless but also every time i've predicted against drip he's shown me up and i'm not making that mistake again, if he loses here i'm a psychic
SS: Meru vs gum - gum's looked a little better but i think meru is a bit more motivated for that playoff push
SM: Estarossa vs Hacker - esta's been looking super solid and picking up some very impressive wins, this should be short work for him
ORAS: Aberforth vs Kiyo - agree both have looked a bit rough but abe's picked up some wins and i think has better momentum going into this week
BW: EviGaro vs triple axel blaze - most of evi's losses in this tour have been to non-mainers and i have a gut feeling that trend continues
DPP: JabbaTheGriffin vs sleid - sleid's good and his showings have been alright this tour but jabba is just that guy in this tier
ADV: Slowbroth vs Lily - insane that one of these two is gonna be fighting for a positive record next week, complete and total coinflip so bolding my bestie
Bo3: Thiago Nunes vs mncmt - tnunes will put up a good fight but i think mence will have the motivation to keep the flag flying on that streak because he's GOOD and NOT STRUGGLING AT THE GAME unlike his SS UU RECORD IN UUBD
 
m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (5) vs (5) The Gargantuan Golurks
SV: fish anemometer vs Seraphz - could be close but I think fish is gonna be more motivated
SV: Tuthur vs Taka - taka's win last week was impressive but I've returned to being a tuthur believer
SV: Stories vs Bouff - stories has won vs strong opps but bouff is a killer and also has impressive wins
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs BloodAce - better record + goat
SM: ManOfMany vs tom holland - SPIDERMAN GOING UNDEFEATED
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs crying - karp has the better record so go with him
BW: Drud vs LpZ - cool mu feel this could be pretty close but lpz still probably got this
DPP: BeatsBlack vs frankjosh - omg frankjosh :bellipog:
ADV: Monai vs A plague doc - more impressed by monai's games + I don't want monai to angry react me
Bo3: pdt vs justdrew - fine I'll put faith in the drewster

SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (10) vs (0) 420 Houndstoners
SV: kyuss vs sufys - guess I am a hater mb but kyuss has looked better vs stronger opps
SV: Baloor vs Axrtix - 50/50 but I think loor is gonna be motivated to win this
SV: lax vs Feaniix - ig this is lax winning the war
SS: Mada vs tier - I'd be funny if I predicted the stoners to get 10-0'd
SM: robjr vs Clementine - yea rob locked in
ORAS: Teddeh vs entrocefalo - teddeh believer till I die
BW: SergioRules vs Jisoo - sergio has gotta get atleast one win
DPP: Leni vs TONE - leni been popping off vs strong opps talk yo shit leni
ADV: Parpar vs goldmason - impressive win last week + better record
Bo3: zS vs Piyu - I was gonna bold zS even if this was danny the bounce back is real

Haunter x Haunter (3) vs (6) Malignant Chain Snatchers
SV: MZ vs S1nn0hC0nfirm3d - highlight mu 50/50 but mz has the better record and got hax'd hard on his only loss
SV: Floss vs Ampha - manager v manager both fell off a bit but going with ampha to bounce back to amphoat status
SV: Theia vs feen - feen has more experience in the tier so going with him
SS: mj vs OranBerryBlissey10 - obb is just too goated
SM: PTF vs sugar ovens - while this is probably going to be close the oven is the only REAL undefeated slot left
ORAS: tko vs Alice Kazumi - 50/50 but I liked alice's teams more
BW: Guille vs Tack - the shelmet buff is going to fuel guille to beat 2 of the strongest opps in the pool
DPP: Heysup vs HSOWA - surely heysup bounces back here right?
ADV: TyCarter vs plznostep - overall liked step's teams more
Bo3: DugZa vs Suzuya - this is gonna probably be a deadgame lol

Goofy Goober Goodras (6) vs (4) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: ishtar vs Beraldo - alr both load up gt teams and see who comes out victorious, my bets on ishtar
SV: Django vs Larry - you're fake undefeated but you're still goated
SV: asa vs DripLegend - goatlegend still got the trophy buff and will be bolded till he loses
SS: Meru vs gum - upset because apperently I've only bolded meru gotta continue the trend
SM: Estarossa vs Hacker - honestly hacker hasn't seemed that bad in this tier but esta is cracked
ORAS: Aberforth vs Kiyo - abe on a come back arc and I'm here for it
BW: EviGaro vs triple axel blaze - nah triple axel the goat yall sleeping on him
DPP: JabbaTheGriffin vs sleid - better record + beat heysup last week
ADV: Slowbroth vs Lily - HIGHLIGHT MU 50/50 got a gut feeling broth wins but should be close
Bo3: Thiago Nunes vs mncmt - I don't have another joke after last week this def goes to game 3 though
 
Code: 
Name       Playoff odds    Tiebreak odds
Snatchers        1.0        0.0
Haunters         0.99154    0.00011
Pranksters       0.74197    0.00359
Goodras          0.5034     0.01435
Magmortars       0.52097    0.00011
Loors            0.11657    0.01036
Golurks          0.10182    0.00967
Houndstoners     0.00523    0.00011
-------------------------------------

Code: 
Snatchers
Tiebreak score(s): set()
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 1, 'l': 2, 'diff': -10}
Best record not in playoffs: X

Haunters
Tiebreak score(s): {(('w', 4), ('t', 0), ('l', 3), ('diff', 2)), (('w', 4), ('t', 0), ('l', 3), ('diff', -2)), (('w', 4), ('t', 0), ('l', 3), ('diff', 0))}
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 0, 'l': 3, 'diff': -14}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 0, 'l': 3, 'diff': 2}

Pranksters
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 0, 'l': 4, 'diff': -14}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 0, 'l': 3, 'diff': 14}

Goodras
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 1, 't': 3, 'l': 3, 'diff': -6}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 4, 'l': 1, 'diff': 12}

Magmortars
Tiebreak score(s): {(('w', 2), ('t', 1), ('l', 4), ('diff', -3)), (('w', 2), ('t', 1), ('l', 4), ('diff', -5))}
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -7}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 2, 'l': 2, 'diff': 11}

Loors
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -6}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 1, 'l': 3, 'diff': 14}

Golurks
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -8}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 1, 'l': 3, 'diff': 14}

Houndstoners
Tiebreak score(s): {(('w', 2), ('t', 1), ('l', 4), ('diff', -3)), (('w', 2), ('t', 1), ('l', 4), ('diff', -5))}
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -7}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': 7}
 
wanted to calculate some playoff odds!

Snatchers are IN
Stoners are OUT

Haunters are in as long as they tie or win at least one more week. HOWEVER, if they do somehow lose both W6 and W7, it is completely possible for all three of the Magmortars, Goodras, and Pranksters to overtake them.

Pranksters are in with two wins or a win and a tie, OR, if the Haunters lose both coming weeks, they're in with one win so long as they keep a higher differential. They are ALSO in with one win if they win against the Goodras since the Snatchers, Haunters, and Magmortars would be the only other teams capable of 8+ points.

Goodras are in with two wins IF they maintain better differential than the Magmortars or the Magmortars lose or tie in the upcoming weeks. They can also make it in with a win against the Pranksters and a tie IF a.) the Pranksters lose or tie to the Snatchers, b.) the Magmortars lose both weeks, or c.) the Magmortars also get a win and a tie but with worse differential. If they lose to the Pranksters, they need the following to happen: a.) The Magmortars lose to the Golurks, but not by a lot, b.) the LOORs lose, tie, or narrowly win against the Stoners, c.) the LOORs vs Magmortars winner has less points or worse differential than them, and d.) the Golurks lose, tie, or narrowly win against the Haunters.

Magmortars are in with two wins IF they can take a differential lead over the Goodras or the Goodras lose or tie in the upcoming weeks. They can also make it in with a win and a tie if the Goodras lose, OR if the Goodras also win and tie but the Magmortars end up with better differential. They can make it in with one win and a loss IF the Goodras lose out AND the opponent they lose to does not win their other week (Golurks would have to lose or tie vs Haunters, LOORs would have to lose or tie vs Stoners.)

The Golurks are in with two wins if the LOORs win or tie vs the Magmortars, and IF the LOORs win vs the Magmortars, they need to lose or tie vs the Stoners. They ALSO need the Goodras to lose twice, lose one and tie one, lose one and win one, or tie both. HOWEVER, if the Goodras tie both weeks or win one and lose one, the Golurks have to win by a wide enough margin to beat the Goodras in differential in addition to all other conditions. If the Goodras win both weeks, they need the Pranksters to lose to the Snatchers.

The LOORs are in with two wins if the Golurks win or tie vs the Magmortars, and IF the Golurks win vs the Magmortars, they need to lose or tie vs the Haunters. They ALSO need the Goodras to lose twice, lose one and tie one, lose one and win one, or tie both. HOWEVER, if the Goodras tie both weeks or win one and lose one, the LOORs have to win by a wide enough margin to beat the Goodras in differential in addition to all other conditions. If the Goodras win both weeks, they need the Pranksters to lose to the Snatchers.

this is crude math so it maaaay not be 100% correct! still, hope this helps!
 
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