RU Battle Analysis

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RU Battle Analysis

Introduction:
There is more to a battle than just the Pokemon you use. Unlike the other RU projects, which focus on Pokemon sets and teams, this one focuses on improving battle skills, prediction, and how we think during a battle. Every so often, there will be a battle log posted. However, it will be posted in pieces instead of all at once, so you have to choose what moves to make and predict which team will win. The log will also have commentary on it, so you can find out what the players were thinking during the battle. Here is how this project will work:​

Phase 1:
  • The team preview will be posted first, along with the exportable teams of the players. This phase will go on for about a day, depending on how much activity it gets. During this time, discuss what each player should lead with, which team will win, and how to do it (make a game plan).

Phase 2:
  • Each turn will be posted one by one along with the player's reasoning on why they chose those moves. Discuss any mistakes a player made, and how they can win from that point on. Predict which moves they should use next, and be sure to consider things such as luck. After discussion is over, the next few turns will be posted and so on, until the end of the battle.

Phase 3:
  • After the battle is over, discuss what the players could have done to improve and which plays were significant.

Credit to Limitless for being a big help with the project.
 
Week 1: DittoCrow vs Limitless

Teams:


Smeargle (M) @ Focus Sash
Trait: Own Tempo
EVs: 252 HP / 4 SDef / 252 Spd
Jolly Nature
- Spore
- Stealth Rock
- Spikes
- Rapid Spin


Gallade (M) @ Lum Berry
Trait: Justified
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 Def / 252 Spd
Adamant Nature
- Swords Dance
- Close Combat
- Night Slash
- Shadow Sneak


Kabutops (M) @ Life Orb
Trait: Swift Swim
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 Def / 252 Spd
Adamant Nature
- Swords Dance
- Rapid Spin
- Aqua Jet
- Stone Edge


Entei @ Flame Plate
Trait: Pressure
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SDef / 252 Spd
Adamant Nature
- Flare Blitz
- ExtremeSpeed
- Stone Edge
- Hidden Power [Grass]


Rotom-C @ Choice Scarf
Trait: Levitate
EVs: 252 SAtk / 4 SDef / 252 Spd
Timid Nature
- Volt Switch
- Leaf Storm
- Hidden Power [Fire]
- Trick


Swellow (M) @ Toxic Orb
Trait: Guts
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 Def / 252 Spd
Jolly Nature
- Protect
- Brave Bird
- Facade
- U-turn



Snover @ Focus Sash
Trait: Snow Warning
EVs: 4 Atk / 252 SAtk / 252 Spd
Mild Nature
- Blizzard
- Giga Drain
- Protect
- Ice Shard


Rotom-Frost @ Choice Scarf
Trait: Levitate
EVs: 4 HP / 252 SAtk / 252 Spd
Modest Nature
- Blizzard
- Volt Switch
- Trick
- Thunderbolt


Jynx (F) @ Leftovers
Trait: Dry Skin
EVs: 252 SAtk / 4 SDef / 252 Spd
Timid Nature
- Nasty Plot
- Blizzard
- Substitute
- Lovely Kiss


Gallade (M) @ Lum Berry
Trait: Steadfast
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SDef / 252 Spd
Adamant Nature
- Close Combat
- Swords Dance
- Shadow Sneak
- Zen Headbutt


Entei @ Leftovers
Trait: Pressure
EVs: 252 HP / 4 Def / 252 SDef
Calm Nature
- Lava Plume
- Rest
- Sleep Talk
- Roar


Uxie @ Leftovers
Trait: Levitate
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 SDef
Relaxed Nature
- Stealth Rock
- Psychic
- Thunder Wave
- U-turn
 

Double01

Hate it or love it the under dog's on top
This seems like a really cool idea.

First, lets start with the leads. I think the obvious lead for Limitless is Gallade. As you look at Dittocrow's team there is nothing that has a remote chance of having a status move (besides maybe toxic on entei). Gallade is able to take the spore from smeargle and 2hko it without it getting any hazards at all. At most Dittocrow is only getting to get sr up. Another option is for Limitless to lead uxie to bait the spore and then u turn out to gallade.

I think Dittocrow has to lead with smeargle. With the chance of putting a mon to sleep and since limitless has no rapid spinner and 4 sr weak mons, getting SR up is absolutely nescessary for DC.

As for my thoughts on who is going to win this game I think Dittocrow should win this without a doubt. Entei, gallade, and kabutops all put massive dents into Limitless's team. Everything on Limitless's team bar uxie is ohkoed by entei and I really can't see Limitless winning this game. I'll elaborate on each persons game plan later.

Edit: Just found out Limitless's gallade is adamant so scratch that whole thing about limitless leading with gallade ....

Edit2: I realize that br thought it was jolly gallade...
 
Leading with Gallade would be dumb because Smeargle gets both SR and Spikes against it, unless DittoCrow tries to put to sleep something that is obviously carrying Lum Berry for absolutely no reason.

Gallade can't even set up on Smeagle because more free Spikes and Swellow revenge kills +6 Gallade with 0 risks.
 

Oglemi

Borf
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If I were Limitless I'd honestly lead with Snover. While it's probably the most predictable to lead with, doing so has a couple things going for it that is crucial for his team. If he leads with Snover he's immediately limited Smeargle to death fodder and has broken its Focus Sash. If DC leads Smeargle against Snover Limitless can simply switch to Gallade to absorb the Spore and KO it with no hazards going up, or offensively pressure it to only Stealth Rock. Limitless also has the option of just having Snover absorb the Spore and use Snover as death fodder.

The other important thing to leading with Snover immediately is giving Rotom-F and Jynx an accurate Blizzard. If DittoCrow leads with anything other than Smeargle against Snover, it gets to fire off at the very least one Blizzard and probably one Ice Shard, which is a nice amount of damage against any mon that DittoCrow will switch into it, which is crucial for Rotom-F to clean up late-game, particularly if DC switches in or leads with Entei to tank the Blizzard.

EDIT: ah missed the Adamant Gallade, I personally run Jolly so 9.9
 
Going from Snover to Gallade is not helping either, because Jolly Smeargle is faster than Adamant Gallade. In that scenario Smeargle would use Spore twice to put Gallade to sleep and then use SR.

The best option is leading with Snover and use Blizzard against lead Smeargle. If Smeargle uses Spore go to Rotom-F and use Thunderbolt or Blizzard. If Smeargle doesn't use Spore Blizzard + Ice Shard koes Smeargle.

In my opinion is better playing safe with Blizzard than try to damage Smeargle with Ice Shard before it uses Spore, because it could get SR + Spikes.

So yeah don't try to stop Smeargle from setting up SR in this match because with Limitless' team that is not possible.
 

Double01

Hate it or love it the under dog's on top
I talked to nails and the rest of #rarelyused in IRC and here is the log of our debate.
http://pastebin.com/pppKHQuA

Basically nails thought leading swellow for dc is best idea because of the threat of jynx but I said that limitless needs to lead snover because jynx has absolute shit match up with everything else on DC's team. Basically DC is in a win win situation because he has a great oppurtunity to set up SR on either case. And Limitless can't lead jynx because of the risk of smeargle having magic coat. It's basically risk v reward scenario and the safer decision would just to lead smeargle.

Edit: Also basically what BR said that it is nearly impossible and limitless needs a lot of luck and perfect prediction to stop SR from getting played when he could risk having his own jynx slept or even dead.
 
Actually, it is possible for Limitless to stop SR. Jynx is max speed, so it can Lovely Kiss it before it gets up a layer. However, that 75% accuracy. If it misses, Jynx most likely is taken out by Spore. Or SR is set up and Limitless is at an immediate disadvantage. Or, Smeargle isn't the lead at all and he's facing a Gallade straight in the face without an attacking move. However, if I were playing, the risk would be worth it. SR wrecks too much.

As I mentioned earlier, if Jynx is the lead then Gallade is the best counter lead. However, beyond beating Jynx, he can't do much. He won't be setting up as it's far too early, so that leaves DittoCrow with a Gallade without an item, which may be unfavorable later on. Smeargle is also an attractive lead. Limitless will be really hard pressed to set up his rocks, however, so saving him to sleep something later could be very valueble. Particularly if Snover has already been death foddered.

So, for Limitless, I'm betting Jynx. For Dittocrow, I'm betting Gallade for lack of a better option.

Edit: Hardcore ninja'd.
 

tehy

Banned deucer.
Why not lead off with entei?

No, seriously. It gets pretty dicked over my enemy entei and kabutops, but gallade should be able to switch in, and nothing but the other gallade wants to take the CC, which just leads to a mirror-match in which he's taken a CC to the face. As for enemy entei, that's a problem, but it's not like it wouldn't be in other situations ANYHOW, since it nearly wrecks his entire team. Meanwhile, you can go to gallade on the stone edge, and tank blitzes with entei. Seeing as fully half his team gives entei a chance to do this, one way or another, it's not that big a deal, in a way.

On the other hand, let's say he sees an entei and doesn't know it's restalk. If he SR's and it's CB entei, it gets to e-speed him in the face, do a ton of damage, and either force him out or kill him, which he MIGHT want to avoid. Restalk entei takes advantage of that and sleep talks. Lava plume 2hitko's and roar forces him out, deferring the situation to later on, when he's already burned a sleep and hail/SR may be up. (If he tries to come in on SR, uxie can u-turn to break his sash and force him out again.) Also, there's the chance of a sleep talked lava plume critburn for ultimate rejection. Just throwing that out there. He might come right back in if roared out, but then it's the same situation, but you can switch out and he can't spore. Either way, you most likely can't stop SR, but you can stop a layer of spikes going down.

Edit: So i'm guessing, limitless, you tricked smeargle, forcing it into being scarfed on spore? Although then he could come in later and SR/spikes (Making himself infinite setup bait in the process though)

Why not just volt switch to snover? He can either get up SR or get a sleep, and if he uses spore, he puts your most useless member to sleep after he's accomplished his main goal.
 

Limitless

Success is the best revenge.
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To throw a little monkey in this debate, I'll let you all know that none of you have picked the move that I did. I fully believe I picked the most justifiable move, but of course there were other options, had I known his sets and if hax was on my side, that would have netted me better outcomes. Given the variables, though, I chose what I did.

When looking at the move I chose, it's best to see what my objectives were when picking a lead. Obviously, Smeargle was going to lead for DittoCrow's team (from my perspective), and thus, there were two obstacles to overcome. First, I needed to break Smeargle's Focus Sash. Second, I needed to have something take the Spore. Given these two objectives, what would then be my best course of action?
 

Double01

Hate it or love it the under dog's on top
I don't understand limitless lol I said you should lead Snover to break sash and take the spore. The only other logical thing is for you to send out entei and take the sleep while sleep talking in return hoping for a lava plume hit and burn or even a roar would do. But really Snover is prolly best play because it is practically useless against dc's team besides setting up hail. How is leading Snover not the best course of action.

Edit: I guess you could also have led with Rotom-f and tricked it a scarf as it spored you which puts you at a huge disadvantage and only stops SR for a brief period of time.
 
Looking at the teams on paper, Ditto would win. However, I'm interested in the use of special Entei, so I'll think about this from Limitless's perspective.

Stage one: get rid of Swellow. Rotom-F is useful here (although it would have to be as a revenge killer) as it has no fewer than three super-effective moves. However, I can't actually see Limitless managing to get rid of Swellow, especially as his physical wall [Uxie] is weak to U-turn. Doing the calculations, Swellow would 3HKO Uxie with Facade, but no more than that (possible 2HKO after hazards, I assume). This would work for Limitless providing he saves Uxie for Swellow (when it'd have to Psychic) and that DittoCrow resists the base instinct to use U-turn.
 

ss234

bop.
I don't really think that there is any way that Limitless can win this. Once Smeargle has spored snover, and rotom-f has killed Smeargle, whichever move it uses something is invited in for free.

I then think that Dittocrow's best option is to use Gallade if uxie is brought in. Gallade can weaken Uxie before being crippled by Thunder wave, finishing Uxie with just 32% left. Limitless can either u-turn out of gallade, leaving Uxie weakened and then Limitless not having much to switch into Gallade anyway. If Uxie stays in to Twave Gallade, then it still isn't able to do much back to it, as Night Slash 3HKO's after rocks and hail damage iirc. Now though Gallade will be para'd, and is finished by Limitless's Gallade's Shadow Sneak. At this point, DittoCrow can simply bring out Swellow as Limitless sacks Snover to the brave bird. Then rotom-f can come in and revenge kill swellow. At this point, Limitless starts to come back a little bit, as whatever Dittocrow now switches in is going to be dealt with some way by Limitless's team. I'm thinking that Entei is probably DC's best choice here, as it can take any move quite comfortably. Nothing enjoys switching in on Entei from Limitless's team, however uxie can come in and set-up stealth rock. So Uxie falls to a flare blitz followed by an espeed. At this point, Limitless has lost as entei can now finish everything off with espeed or simply Stone Edge Limitless's entei.

Basically, DC should win.
 
Battle between Limitless and DittoCrow started!
Limitless sent out Rotom-Frost!
DittoCrow sent out Smeargle!

Turn 1
The foe's Rotom-Frost used Volt Switch!
Smeargle lost 68% of its health!
Limitless called Rotom-Frost back!
Limitless sent out Entei!
The foe's Entei is exerting its pressure!
Smeargle used Stealth Rock!
Pointed stones float in the air around the foe's team!

DittoCrow:


Limitless:


Limitless said:
Right off the bat, I knew it would be a close match. While DittoCrow didn't have that many resistances to ice attacks, he did have a lot of strong priority users in Swellow, Kabutops, Gallade, and Entei. As such, I thought the game would come down to who won the most 50/50s. Obviously, the goal of the team in this battle was to get Rotom-F to get a Blizzard sweep. That would prove to be easier said than done, though, as DittoCrow's team has a lot of priority.

In ordinance to what I needed to lead the game with, I looked at my possible options. The only logical leads were Snover, Entei, Jynx, Rotom-F, and Gallade. The only positive with leading Snover was that I could start hail turn one and break Smeargle's Focus Sash. However, it would be more optimal for Entei to take the Spore from Smeargle. Leading with Entei was possible, as I could immedietly have Spore on Entei, but since I could just Volt Switch with Rotom-F, leading with Entei was pointless. Leading with Jynx was a viable option, but I didn't want to risk Jynx missing, and subsequently, being useless from turn one. Not to mention, hail wouldn't even be up, so the extent that Jynx could break through wasn't all that enticing. Lastly, leading with Gallade was also an option with Lum Berry for Spore, but as I'm an adamant nature, I wouldn't have been able to outspeed Smeargle the second turn. And as normal-type Pokemon are immune to ghost-type attacks, Shadow Sneak would be useless.

With all of that in mind, I chose to lead with Rotom-F, as I could break Smeargle's Focus Sash, while also putting the Spore on my Entei.
DittoCrow said:
Looking at Limitless's team, it was obvious that getting up Stealth Rock as early as possible would severely limit his switching and give me an advantage throughout the match since he had Rotom-F, Jynx, and Entei. I also noticed that he didn't have a sleep absorber, unless his Entei was the specially defensive set that he speaks highly of or Gallade had Lum Berry. Nevertheless, the best option was to lead with Smeargle to get Stealth Rock up. Leading with anything else would be a poor decision, since he could wear down any of my other Pokemon if he chooses to lead with Snover. Even if he led with Jynx, it wouldn't be able to deal much damage to my team off the bat since hail wouldn't be up. This would be too risky for him, so Smeargle was still the best choice. Thinking ahead, I noticed that my Entei could do a huge amount of damage to his team and that Limitless would making KOing it a priority. Hazards would greatly help Entei, and he had nothing to get rid of them.

Since he led with Rotom-F, it became apparent that either Entei would have a high chance of carrying Sleep Talk or Gallade / Uxie had Lum Berry. He could either Volt Switch out to Entei or Gallade to take Spore, or use Trick and lock me into Spore. I couldn't risk the latter since Smeargle would be crippled. I also didn't want Gallade / Uxie to KO Smeargle, but I doubted that he would bring out Gallade this early in the game and he might not have 2 mons with Lum Berry on a hail team. Either way, I absolutely needed Stealth Rock.

Take this time to discuss the first few events: whether either player could have led with something different, or if there was a better move to pick. Then predict which moves would be best in the following turn or two.
 

tehy

Banned deucer.
Well, clearly he could've blizzarded, and thus done more damage on the first hit and prevented him from doing anything else, assuming the second hit. Or he could've thunderbolted. But honestly, volt switch was a pretty good hedge move.

I mean, if he really wanted to lay SR, there was no way to stop him, so...

Alternately, shouldn't have gone to entei. Logically speaking, he's probably going to SR, so at least limit him to that, and not let him get a layer of spikes or spore something.
 

Double01

Hate it or love it the under dog's on top
Well personally I think Limitless made the wrong decision because now he has a entei out against a faster smeargle. While the obvious spore is about to come the right move for limitless to sleep talk because dc can't risk not sleeping something. Now limitless only has a 66% chance of getting roar or lava plume and preventing smeargle from laying a layer of spikes. If he would have led Snover then there is 0% chance of letting smeargle lay a layer of spikes at a cost of 25% health of Rotom-f so I guess it's give or take either way. But even if entei gets the roar, Entei is set up bait and loses to 4 of the other 5 mons dc has so it would put him in a precarious situation. The only way limitless would 'win' was if he got lava plume which is pretty unlikely.
 
IMO, this was definitely the wrong move. If he leads with Jynx, he can use a 75% accuracy Lovely Kiss. While this may not be that high accuracy, he can still use it again next turn even if he misses since Dittocrow wouldn't Spore risking the Substitute. Which basically means the chance of Limitless being perfectly fine and Dittocrow not getting any hazards up is 75% at worst. Compare it to now, where a. Dittocrow already has Stealth Rock up, and b. Limitless still has to predict whether Dittocrow will go for Spore or use Spikes. If he predicts wrong, Dittocrow will have a MAJOR advantage. Even if he predicts right, he still has to choose Roar or Lava Plume with Sleep Talk if Smeargle decides to Spore. The chances of both of these being right is less than 50%, as it is already a 50-50 as is without even counting this. Now that we know Jynx works better for Smeargle, let's evaluate how it would do vs the other potential leads for Dittocrow's team. Rotom-C would definitely not lead against a hail team, as it gives Limitless too much momentum if he led with Snover, especially since many Snover run Focus Sash, so that can be eliminated. The same can be said for Swellow. Jynx takes 85% max from Entei's ExtremeSpeed, meaning it has a 75% chance to incapacitate it for the game. Jynx can outspeed Kabutops and has a 75% chance to put that to sleep as well. So essentially, the only potential lead that Jynx cannot defeat is Gallade. However, since most Gallade run Lum Berry, using Lovely Kiss on turn 1 would be foolish. Limitless could have switched to Uxie, taken a Night Slash (or 2), used U-Turn, and then gone to Snover for the Blizzard and to set up hail as well. Close Combat lowers defense so this works out even better for Limitless (Shadow Sneak from Limitless's Gallade can finish off Dittocrow's if need be. This is essentially the same situation Rotom-F would be in vs Gallade as well, except with a bit more damage from Volt Switch. All in all, Jynx is clearly a better lead in this case, especially since it can beat the most threatening one, Smeargle, which is especially crucial since Limitless lacks a spinner.
 
I think the Rotom-F lead was the right choice. With a Swellow lead Ditto could have been at an advantage against anything but Rotom-F as it out sped everything else on the team and ko'd the gallade or Jynx with a non Guts Brave Bird or U-Turn on Snover or Uxie, taking a max %30 from a Snover Ice Shard before going to Entei to finish it. In all honesty a Rotom F lead was the best option to prevent the possible lead Swellow from doing anything significant with the threat of a scraf Volt Turn, while still being able to Volt Turn on the lead Smeargle as the case may be.

I don't like the Entei choice though, as now Smeargle will have a free turn to either lay spikes or at worst role the dice on a 66% chance to stop the spikes. And become fodder for whatever comes in on the 66% chance. I would have taken the 75% chance to avoid any hazards over the impending mind games and dice roles over the next turn to be honest, although I still wouldn't lead with a Jynx. I personally would have lead Rotom-F but instead of Entei gone to Snover, as now after 1 round of hail Smeargle would be in Ice Shard range limiting it to just Stealth Rocks or if Smeargle Spored allowing a switch to Jynx to out speed and ko with Blizzard after just rocks for sure. Just my thoughts,now comes the mind games of to Sleep Talk or not to and the roll if the Spore and Sleep Talk line up of if Smeargle dies, gets shuffled, or just laughs and gets some spikes up too.
 
So Limitless has what I think is called a "Crotei" out against Ditto's Smeargle, which I think is faster as it has maximum investment compared to minimum for Entei, despite the base stat difference.

If Ditto has any sense he will not use Spore. Limitless is probably expecting it (unless an overprediction occurs) and will just laugh while Crotei sleeptalks while awake. This would give Ditto another turn to set up spikes.

As Limitless has no spinner, Ditto will probably go all-out with the entry hazards, and therefore use Spikes. If Limitless predicts this, the best thing to do would be to use it as a setup excuse himself and CM up. After one or two boosts, it is possible that Entei could attack Smeargle head-on with Lava Plume.

Bearing CM in mind, Limitless has got his Entei set wrong. Thanks to the Special Defence boost, it really should have either a Bold nature or more Physical Defence EVs. Even if it had Hidden Power Grass, Entei is still OHKO'ed by Kabutops's Stone Edge. I'm not criticising Crotei, I'm criticising the specially defensive aspect to it, bearing in mind that most threats to Entei in RU are physical. With the EVs changed from 252/0/4/0/252/0 to 252/0/252/0/4/0, it could survive a Stone Edge.

Anyway, that's beside the point. Back to the battle. Suppose DittoCrow gets a layer of spikes up, and Limitless CM's. What would happen then? Ditto would do one of two things: either send in Kabutops, or get another layer of spikes up. If the former happens, Limitless's only hope is to use Roar or lose the CM boost. If the latter happens, it would be best to CM again or to Lava Plume. The losses from a CM facing Kabutops are worse than from a Roar facing Smeargle, so my advice to Limitless if this scenario happens is use Roar.

(And then Kabutops comes in on the Roar, and Ditto wins)

EDIT: I didn't realise that it wasn't a standard Crotei set, sorry for the incoherent comments.
 

Double01

Hate it or love it the under dog's on top
Hunt, Dittocrow can't risk not sleeping entei. People have to remember Dittocrow doesn't know Limitless's team.... If the entei was cb smeargle would just 2hkoed and only get 1 layer of spikes and no slept Pokemon. People need to start thinking about Risk vs Teward it's the basis of what moves each player should make. Why would Dittocrow risk limitless not going for sleep talk and DC having no mon slept? Even if DC is 90% sure limitless will sleep talk that 10% chance of him not sleep talking could completely screw over DC.

Also at speed ghillie sniper there was 0% chance that DC was goin to lead swellow. Cause if limitless had led Snover there would be very little chance of him getting sr up which is his goal to win.
 
While I do agree with the fact that Lovely Kiss at turn 1 would be game changing, the chance of it possibly happening is small due paranoia of Magic Coat. Yes, Limitless could have had no SR up and the game would be less uphill from that point, but on the other hand, he could:

a.Miss and be Spored, ensuring SR and a layer of Spikes (but can be said of anything)
b.Magic Coated (if DC did have it) and be in the same situation above

Alternatively, Limitless could Sub up, but Focus Miss accuracy would bite him sooner or later back when using Blizzard.

If Limitless did suspect at the time that Smeargle lacked Magic Coat, then, yes, he would lead with Jynx, but since he didn't...

Honestly, Rotom-F leading was the safest move, especially due the fact Limitless's team matches up badly against DC's and thus lacks an solid answer to it.

As for the next move, DC is pretty much guaranteed Spikes at this point and really should do that, as SR+Spikes already wears Limitless's team down enough, and Spore can cause a Sleep Talked Roar to topple those hopes. Additionally, Limitless is pretty much forced to Sleep Talk here, due the chance of limiting Smeargle to SR, lest him giving DC a free turn to set up more hazards. Limitless is stuck between a rock and a hard place atm. I'll write up a bit more later.
EDIT: Hunt, I think Limitless's Entei doesn't have CM...
 

Double01

Hate it or love it the under dog's on top
If jynx would have led against smeargle then DC could've just went to Gallade to take the LK with lum berry and shadow sneak the jynx or double switch back to smeargle predicting the obvious switch out.
 
Hunt, Dittocrow can't risk not sleeping entei. People have to remember Dittocrow doesn't know Limitless's team.... If the entei was cb smeargle would just 2hkoed and only get 1 layer of spikes and no slept Pokemon. People need to start thinking about Risk vs Teward it's the basis of what moves each player should make. Why would Dittocrow risk limitless not going for sleep talk and DC having no mon slept? Even if DC is 90% sure limitless will sleep talk that 10% chance of him not sleep talking could completely screw over DC.

Also at speed ghillie sniper there was 0% chance that DC was goin to lead swellow. Cause if limitless had led Snover there would be very little chance of him getting sr up which is his goal to win.
This is true about Swellow, Stealth Rock is more important in this match. I'll admit it wasn't likely and so that's not what Limitless was going for. And I suppose going to the Sleep Talk Entei was a safe choice predicting the spore.

I'm confused by HuntSaboteur's referance to a Crotei and the references to Calm Mind as it doesn't have CM on the set, it's just a bulky rest talk phazing set. Past that Smeargle is faster at this point, however DC might not know that going back to what Double01 said about risk reward as neither player knows the others team. However, I don't see how Smeargle is 2HKO'd if the Entei was CB as Double01 put it because Smeargle is at %32 after the Rotom-F Volt Switch, but now expecting himself to be ko'd I would assume he'd just click Spore to sleep something so Sleep Talk could be the best move, however on the other hand using Lava Plume to go for the ko could be smart because if DC uses Spikes he'll get 2 layers on the Sleep Talk. Then the dice roll if he Spores would come into play, having a 66% chance to keep it to 1 layer of Spikes. It all comes down to prediction, so we'll see how this plays out in the coming turns.
 

Limitless

Success is the best revenge.
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Bleh in retrospect I (and Limitless, given he picked the same move I did!) made mistakes with the turn one matchup - leading with Gallade, hitting with Close Combat while absorbing the Spore, then pivoting to Snover as DC either Spored again or set up Stealth Rock was the better play, as it either ended with nothing sleeping or no Rocks up. Anyhow, at this point, if I did not know Limitless or if I didn't know his team I'd probably pivot out from Smeargle into Kabutops. The only legitimate reason someone using DC's team without knowledge of LL's team could have to bring in Entei in that situation would be if it was faster than the Smeargle or useless against DC's team and not worth wasting the Spore on. Switching to Kabutops to put up immediate offensive pressure with Stone Edge while easily absorbing the expected Extremespeed / Flare Blitz would be the better play. Of course, given what we know about the teams, Sporing is obviously the best move, but eh, games where one person's predicting both sides just favor the team the predictor chooses, so not going to go there.
This only works if we assume that Smeargle uses Spore on Gallade. If I led with Gallade, it's pretty obvious to assume that Gallade was carrying Lum Berry. Thus, if he assumed this, his first move would be Stealth Rocks, not Spore. And as you switch to Snover for the second turn (or stay in, either way), he will then get a layer of Spikes down. It's essentially the same outcome against a competent player.
 

Yonko7

Guns make you stupid. Duct tape makes you smart.
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This is a great idea; I love these kinds of threads! Also, I think it’d be best if everyone put there thoughts in
texts, so people who haven’t posted can post without others’ influence. ^^

Now from DittoCrow’s thoughts, he knows that Entei is probably carrying Sleep Talk, which is Limitless’s reason for switching in Entei in the first place. Now, I think DittoCrow would much rather use Spore on Uxie or Rotom-F, which are the two Pokemon that are stopping an end-game Swellow sweep.

Next turn, DittoCrow will most likely switch Smergle out to Kabutops or Entei, both of which don’t take that much from a (suspected) CB Flare Blitz or Lave Plume, but Kabutops is crippled by the latter. First, Smergle can switch in again and outspeed Gallade, Snover, Entei, or Uxie and Spore them. Second, DittoCrow doesn’t want to start a mini-sweep with Kabutops yet because Rotom-F and Uxie are still around, and Limitless needs Rotom-F to revenge Swellow, which means DittoCrow could start to beat Limitless down with Kabutops. On the other hand, if DC thinks Entei is the suspected CroTei , then Entei is the best switch-in, because the burn from Lava Plume won’t happen, which could happen to Kabutops.

From Limitless’s thoughts, he wants to ideally sweep with Rotom, but all the priority makes that really hard. So he needs to keep Rotom as healthy as possible, while also chipping DC away with Blizzards, and needs Stealth Rock up asap to help wear DC down.

Next turn, Limitless doesn’t know that DC knows that Entei has Sleep Talk. As posted in Limitless’s thoughts, he would much rather prefer Entei to be slept than anything else. However, if Limitless thinks that Smergle will switch out, then he could switch to Uxie to get SR down, or to Rotom-F to regain momentum, because DC’s most predictable move would be to switch in Kabutops or Entei.

Limitless could win with either Jynx or Gallade, depending if Substitute is up for Jynx, or how Gallade can clean, but it’s gonna be close. Rooting for the underdog Limitless!
 
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