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Metagame SCL I LC Discussion
- Thread starter Luthier
- Start date
LilyAC vs dcae
KSG vs daunt vs
Toadow vs Boulicrok
teal6 vs Laroxyl
kythr vs Wail Wailord
KSG vs daunt vs
Toadow vs Boulicrok
teal6 vs Laroxyl
kythr vs Wail Wailord
LilyAC vs dcae
KSG vs daunt vs
Toadow vs Boulicrok
teal6 vs Laroxyl
kythr vs Wail Wailord
KSG vs daunt vs
Toadow vs Boulicrok
teal6 vs Laroxyl
kythr vs Wail Wailord
LilyAC vs dcae
KSG vs daunt vs
Toadow vs Boulicrok
teal6 vs Laroxyl
kythr vs Wail Wailord
KSG vs daunt vs
Toadow vs Boulicrok
teal6 vs Laroxyl
kythr vs Wail Wailord
Apologies to those of you cheering for me, I wanted to get started on the right foot, but it seems that wasn't the case this time around. For my own analysis purposes, I'd like to write up the game from my perspective and if anyone has any comments regarding the logic contained therein please feel free to let me know: (there will be two parts, one for the bulk of the game and one for the end-game, particularly because the end-game was a lot more complicated than I think people recognized right off the bat)
the end game has a lot of routes that are pretty confusing but i've mapped them out:
Ultimately, I thought it was a good game. I had some good turns catching him, he caught me a good few times, and we ended in an end-game with a ton of different paths that, by my count, end with a hard prediction being necessary from one of us to ensure a win. I think there was a lot of mistakes made in the chat thinking that staying in on his grassy glide was just outright wrong, and as I've mapped through the potential alternatives, each situation ends with someone needing to call a 50/50 to win the game. That said, perhaps I'm incorrect, but as far as opening losses go, I'm moderately comfortable with the play, but do need to iron some things out.
Turn 1 - I get a fair start here leading Abra against Koffing. Laro obviously has to switch here unless he's completely nuts, so I thought it fair to try to catch the Pawn switch in, under the assumption that he would expect me maybe to take it slow to start and Psychic. Laro does the appropriate midground though and brings in Pony, and I get di minimis damage on it with Submission and make little progress.
Turn 2 - I do have Shadow Ball, so I throw it off here. Unfortunately on my end, I lose the speed tie, so I am unable to kill the Pony. but it would have been a little bit of a reach roll as is:
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Shadow Ball vs. 0 HP / 76 SpD Eviolite Ponyta-Galar: 16-21 (76.1 - 100%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (16, 16, 16, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 21)
He should have been at 18 hp if my calc was correct
Turn 3 - I don't think at this point I'm too scared of this Pony, and I'm not even terribly sure it can do anything back to the Abra, plus if I win the speed tie its a moot point either way, so I throw off another Shadow Ball. Laro appropriately switches to Staryu which takes it very well
Turn 4 - Feeling like I'm losing some of the momentum at this point, now, I want to get back to basics and start laying on damage. The HP % indicated to me that the Staru wasn't offensive, so I thought it might not have Hydro, and a Psychic felt correct here. Laro reads me and moves into Pawn for 0 damage and I fall a little further behind.
Turn 5 - Back against the wall, I know I don't want to fall too far behind or I won't catch up. Laro has gotten to a point where I don't have a ton of options, so I thought he'd take the chance to get hazards up. Worst come to worst, he is never sucker punching in such a situation, as it'd be a complete loss of momentum, so Submission felt free this turn and I got significant damage off.
Turn 6 - Here it feels like a pure 5050 jostling for momentum. I did not feel that the additional momentum gained from killing the Pawn was significant enough to lose the Abra in this new game state, so I hard switched into Mienfoo. I'm predicted here again, though, as Laro grabs a Knock on my foo.
Turn 7 - This is bluntly a misplay on my end due to miscalculation. I was reading Pawn's HP as 29% and not 24%, and as such, thought he was a 1/16 roll to die to Uturn, whereas in actuality, it was a 100% kill. To this mistake, I HJK into Koffing for no damage.
Turn 8 - I uturn into Pory who shouldn't have too difficult a time with Koffing, and get hit with a Sludge Bomb + poison, so I'm pegged back a little more than I wanted to be.
Turn 9 - Reasonably obvious turn for both of us as I can't afford to Recover on an incoming risk and he has no reason to let Koffing get damaged, so I Tri-Attack into the Koff and end up killing the Pawn
Turn 10 - His Mienfoo comes in, and I have no reasonable check. My own doesn't offer a ton at this game state so I throw it away to an HJK to get Abra in
Turn 11 - Another straightforward turn, he doesn't have as much use for Koffing now that Foo is gone, so he sacs to Abra's psychic to get in Grook
Turn 12 - Knowing I have BJ and there is grassy, I believe at this point I can bring Ponyta in three times depending on the situation. I don't want to lose Abra at this point as it's quite important, so I hard into Pony and take a uturn, to face Staryu.
Turn 13 - I bring in Ferro, this switch is predicted as Laro doubles to Foo and catches me out. I'm not super concerned about this at this point, as I do have a perfect sac, as Pory's going to be far too low to realistically accomplish anything more at this point.
Turn 14 - Pory dies to HJK
Turn 15 - Again, more straightforward sacrificing as we inch toward the end game, he brings in Pony to take the psychic
Turn 16 - Some damage exchange and Pony goes down
Turn 17 - Laro glides into the Pony, the crit loses an additional ~12% of damage compared to a max roll from a normal hit. The crit changes my end-game plans a bit, as Ponyta was being held for an additional threat to Grook both in and out of terrain. The additional damage changes the situation though, in that, I cannot realistically bring it in or use it to absorb a glide any more. this bits a little complicated so here's the thought process on my end:
with no crit, pony is at 60%. i would use flame charge the next turn to threaten the grook (and in this case end up hitting the mienfoo), and i'd be at 66% thereafter. because mienfoo came in, i'd ultimately switch the pony out and likely just sac diglett at this point, following that up with abra, psychic to knock out either staryu or foo. if i knock out staryu, he will go grook the next turn, to which i can sac ferro (doesn't matter if its uturn or dpunch or glide, i just stay in with ferro perpetually at this point and keep giga draining or knocking or whatever). my path from that point is obvious but still not a 100% win. if laro stays in with grook and kills the ferro w grook, the gameplan becomes revenge with abra (terrain will be over) or if he sacs foo to reset terrain, live a glide with pony and win that way afterwards. the complication would be if he pivoted multiple times in an attempt to reset the terrain for longer, so that i would not be able to bring in pony more than once at this point, leading to a situation where i would have to figure out how to deal with grook again. this route would give me a few chances for additional play, though.
turn 18 - 22 - here i am just sacing the pony to reset momentum. it doesn't have great matchup against whats left unless i call it correctly.
Turn 2 - I do have Shadow Ball, so I throw it off here. Unfortunately on my end, I lose the speed tie, so I am unable to kill the Pony. but it would have been a little bit of a reach roll as is:
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Shadow Ball vs. 0 HP / 76 SpD Eviolite Ponyta-Galar: 16-21 (76.1 - 100%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (16, 16, 16, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 21)
He should have been at 18 hp if my calc was correct
Turn 3 - I don't think at this point I'm too scared of this Pony, and I'm not even terribly sure it can do anything back to the Abra, plus if I win the speed tie its a moot point either way, so I throw off another Shadow Ball. Laro appropriately switches to Staryu which takes it very well
Turn 4 - Feeling like I'm losing some of the momentum at this point, now, I want to get back to basics and start laying on damage. The HP % indicated to me that the Staru wasn't offensive, so I thought it might not have Hydro, and a Psychic felt correct here. Laro reads me and moves into Pawn for 0 damage and I fall a little further behind.
Turn 5 - Back against the wall, I know I don't want to fall too far behind or I won't catch up. Laro has gotten to a point where I don't have a ton of options, so I thought he'd take the chance to get hazards up. Worst come to worst, he is never sucker punching in such a situation, as it'd be a complete loss of momentum, so Submission felt free this turn and I got significant damage off.
Turn 6 - Here it feels like a pure 5050 jostling for momentum. I did not feel that the additional momentum gained from killing the Pawn was significant enough to lose the Abra in this new game state, so I hard switched into Mienfoo. I'm predicted here again, though, as Laro grabs a Knock on my foo.
Turn 7 - This is bluntly a misplay on my end due to miscalculation. I was reading Pawn's HP as 29% and not 24%, and as such, thought he was a 1/16 roll to die to Uturn, whereas in actuality, it was a 100% kill. To this mistake, I HJK into Koffing for no damage.
Turn 8 - I uturn into Pory who shouldn't have too difficult a time with Koffing, and get hit with a Sludge Bomb + poison, so I'm pegged back a little more than I wanted to be.
Turn 9 - Reasonably obvious turn for both of us as I can't afford to Recover on an incoming risk and he has no reason to let Koffing get damaged, so I Tri-Attack into the Koff and end up killing the Pawn
Turn 10 - His Mienfoo comes in, and I have no reasonable check. My own doesn't offer a ton at this game state so I throw it away to an HJK to get Abra in
Turn 11 - Another straightforward turn, he doesn't have as much use for Koffing now that Foo is gone, so he sacs to Abra's psychic to get in Grook
Turn 12 - Knowing I have BJ and there is grassy, I believe at this point I can bring Ponyta in three times depending on the situation. I don't want to lose Abra at this point as it's quite important, so I hard into Pony and take a uturn, to face Staryu.
Turn 13 - I bring in Ferro, this switch is predicted as Laro doubles to Foo and catches me out. I'm not super concerned about this at this point, as I do have a perfect sac, as Pory's going to be far too low to realistically accomplish anything more at this point.
Turn 14 - Pory dies to HJK
Turn 15 - Again, more straightforward sacrificing as we inch toward the end game, he brings in Pony to take the psychic
Turn 16 - Some damage exchange and Pony goes down
Turn 17 - Laro glides into the Pony, the crit loses an additional ~12% of damage compared to a max roll from a normal hit. The crit changes my end-game plans a bit, as Ponyta was being held for an additional threat to Grook both in and out of terrain. The additional damage changes the situation though, in that, I cannot realistically bring it in or use it to absorb a glide any more. this bits a little complicated so here's the thought process on my end:
with no crit, pony is at 60%. i would use flame charge the next turn to threaten the grook (and in this case end up hitting the mienfoo), and i'd be at 66% thereafter. because mienfoo came in, i'd ultimately switch the pony out and likely just sac diglett at this point, following that up with abra, psychic to knock out either staryu or foo. if i knock out staryu, he will go grook the next turn, to which i can sac ferro (doesn't matter if its uturn or dpunch or glide, i just stay in with ferro perpetually at this point and keep giga draining or knocking or whatever). my path from that point is obvious but still not a 100% win. if laro stays in with grook and kills the ferro w grook, the gameplan becomes revenge with abra (terrain will be over) or if he sacs foo to reset terrain, live a glide with pony and win that way afterwards. the complication would be if he pivoted multiple times in an attempt to reset the terrain for longer, so that i would not be able to bring in pony more than once at this point, leading to a situation where i would have to figure out how to deal with grook again. this route would give me a few chances for additional play, though.
turn 18 - 22 - here i am just sacing the pony to reset momentum. it doesn't have great matchup against whats left unless i call it correctly.
the end game has a lot of routes that are pretty confusing but i've mapped them out:
Turn 24 is where the various branches start. Let's start here with the one that happened:
Turn 24 - Grookey 86% vs Abra 37% / 5 Turns of Grassy Terrain
Laro Glides, kills Abra, and the game is basically over
So what are the other routes that caused me to risk this? Here's my thought process:
Route 1 (not accounting for iron barbs in this case as it doesn't really matter)
Turn 24 - Grookey 86% vs Abra 37% / 5 Turns of Grassy Terrain
I hard into Diglett on a Grassy Glide and die
Turn 25 - Grookey 81% vs Ferroseed 100% / 4 Turns of Grassy Terrain
Laro drain punches (Ferro 100 --> 55%, Grookey --> 100%)
I knock off (Grookey 95% --> 62%)
Terrain - Ferro --> 61% , Grookey --> 68%
Turn 26 - Grookey 68% vs Ferro 61% / 3 Turns of Grassy Terrain
Drain Punch (Ferro --> 25%, Grookey --> 80%)
I would twave in this situation definitively
Terrain - Ferro --> 31%, Grookey --> 86%
Turn 27 - Grookey 86% vs Ferro 31% / 2 Turns of Grassy Terrain
Drain Punch (Ferro dies, Grook is at 100%)
Turn 28 - Abra vs Grook, 1 turn of terrain, and it's a 100% win barring a 5x protect from me at this point as Laro just needs to switch Grookey out to reset terrain
Route 2
Turn 24 - Grookey 86% vs Abra 37% / 5 Turns of Grassy Terrain
I hard into Ferro on Grassy Glide
Turn 25 - Grookey 76% vs Ferro 100% / 4 turns of Grassy Terrain
Grook drains, I knock
Grookey --> 81% (-28 knock, +23 dp heal), Ferro --> 61%
Turn 26 - Grookey 81% vs Ferro 61% / 3 Turns of Grassy Terrain
I twave, he DPs
Grookey -->100%, Ferro 25%
Turn 27 - Grookey 100% vs Ferro 25% / 2 Turns of Grassy Terrain
We've now ended up exactly where we were before, with the only difference being a full health Diglett. This Grookey is never getting anywhere near Dig's sucker punch range, so that's a non-starter. Even if I Giga Drain twice instead of knock and twave, we end up in a similar situation, slightly less health on Grookey for sure, but not sucker punch range. While this would elongate the terrain a little bit more, we're at the point where Laro can just sac Mienfoo and win once he brings in Grookey unless I get copious protects.
Route 3
I won't fully write this one out, but a win chance I can see in reviewing it is trying to time the dpunch on Ferro and getting Abra in, then tecting to end terrain appropriately. Not guaranteeed, but a potential win path that involves winning a 50/50.
All other Routes
The big attempt at mitigation was Laro uturning as I switched from Abra to whomever. Having gone through those routes as well, they all end functionally similar to what we see above. I don't quite have a way to stop him from resetting terrain and sweeping with glide, is the crux of it, barring multiple protects. Here's an example posted by a teammate of mine in review:
turn 24 you go ferroseed as he uturns, grassy goes to 4
turn 25 mienfoo hjk and ferroseed dies grassy goes to 3
turn 26 abra psychic foo dies grassy to 2
turn 27 protect with abra on grookey grassy to 1
turn 28 sac diglett grassy over
turn 29 kill grookey with abra
This seems to work, right? But it relies on my Laro misplaying. He doesn't actually ever have to HJK on the Ferro, indeed, doing so would be an outright loss as we see above. In such a situation, I'd expect him to knock with the Foo into uturn or double knock to manage terrain turns. I can't quite kill Foo with my Ferro barring some luck, so there's no real harm in that for him, as he can reset terrain on his schedule, and after weakening Ferro enough, I can't fight back against it.
Turn 24 - Grookey 86% vs Abra 37% / 5 Turns of Grassy Terrain
Laro Glides, kills Abra, and the game is basically over
So what are the other routes that caused me to risk this? Here's my thought process:
Route 1 (not accounting for iron barbs in this case as it doesn't really matter)
Turn 24 - Grookey 86% vs Abra 37% / 5 Turns of Grassy Terrain
I hard into Diglett on a Grassy Glide and die
Turn 25 - Grookey 81% vs Ferroseed 100% / 4 Turns of Grassy Terrain
Laro drain punches (Ferro 100 --> 55%, Grookey --> 100%)
I knock off (Grookey 95% --> 62%)
Terrain - Ferro --> 61% , Grookey --> 68%
Turn 26 - Grookey 68% vs Ferro 61% / 3 Turns of Grassy Terrain
Drain Punch (Ferro --> 25%, Grookey --> 80%)
I would twave in this situation definitively
Terrain - Ferro --> 31%, Grookey --> 86%
Turn 27 - Grookey 86% vs Ferro 31% / 2 Turns of Grassy Terrain
Drain Punch (Ferro dies, Grook is at 100%)
Turn 28 - Abra vs Grook, 1 turn of terrain, and it's a 100% win barring a 5x protect from me at this point as Laro just needs to switch Grookey out to reset terrain
Route 2
Turn 24 - Grookey 86% vs Abra 37% / 5 Turns of Grassy Terrain
I hard into Ferro on Grassy Glide
Turn 25 - Grookey 76% vs Ferro 100% / 4 turns of Grassy Terrain
Grook drains, I knock
Grookey --> 81% (-28 knock, +23 dp heal), Ferro --> 61%
Turn 26 - Grookey 81% vs Ferro 61% / 3 Turns of Grassy Terrain
I twave, he DPs
Grookey -->100%, Ferro 25%
Turn 27 - Grookey 100% vs Ferro 25% / 2 Turns of Grassy Terrain
We've now ended up exactly where we were before, with the only difference being a full health Diglett. This Grookey is never getting anywhere near Dig's sucker punch range, so that's a non-starter. Even if I Giga Drain twice instead of knock and twave, we end up in a similar situation, slightly less health on Grookey for sure, but not sucker punch range. While this would elongate the terrain a little bit more, we're at the point where Laro can just sac Mienfoo and win once he brings in Grookey unless I get copious protects.
Route 3
I won't fully write this one out, but a win chance I can see in reviewing it is trying to time the dpunch on Ferro and getting Abra in, then tecting to end terrain appropriately. Not guaranteeed, but a potential win path that involves winning a 50/50.
All other Routes
The big attempt at mitigation was Laro uturning as I switched from Abra to whomever. Having gone through those routes as well, they all end functionally similar to what we see above. I don't quite have a way to stop him from resetting terrain and sweeping with glide, is the crux of it, barring multiple protects. Here's an example posted by a teammate of mine in review:
turn 24 you go ferroseed as he uturns, grassy goes to 4
turn 25 mienfoo hjk and ferroseed dies grassy goes to 3
turn 26 abra psychic foo dies grassy to 2
turn 27 protect with abra on grookey grassy to 1
turn 28 sac diglett grassy over
turn 29 kill grookey with abra
This seems to work, right? But it relies on my Laro misplaying. He doesn't actually ever have to HJK on the Ferro, indeed, doing so would be an outright loss as we see above. In such a situation, I'd expect him to knock with the Foo into uturn or double knock to manage terrain turns. I can't quite kill Foo with my Ferro barring some luck, so there's no real harm in that for him, as he can reset terrain on his schedule, and after weakening Ferro enough, I can't fight back against it.
Ultimately, I thought it was a good game. I had some good turns catching him, he caught me a good few times, and we ended in an end-game with a ton of different paths that, by my count, end with a hard prediction being necessary from one of us to ensure a win. I think there was a lot of mistakes made in the chat thinking that staying in on his grassy glide was just outright wrong, and as I've mapped through the potential alternatives, each situation ends with someone needing to call a 50/50 to win the game. That said, perhaps I'm incorrect, but as far as opening losses go, I'm moderately comfortable with the play, but do need to iron some things out.
Incredible overview, very much appreciate this
So, I generally don't like to do the self-promo thing, and if we don't want it in the thread, I will happily delete it.
But anyway, if any of you happened to miss any of the games this week live, I was able to catch and record all of them. If that's of interest to you, you can find them all here. I made a playlist of them. No promises on me getting every other game this season, but if possible, I'm going to try.
But anyway, if any of you happened to miss any of the games this week live, I was able to catch and record all of them. If that's of interest to you, you can find them all here. I made a playlist of them. No promises on me getting every other game this season, but if possible, I'm going to try.
Week 1 Recap
[TMS] LilyAC vs dcae [SHO] - replay
[TER} KSG vs daunt vs [BRE] - replay
[FOX] Toadow vs Boulicrok [ISL] - replay
[GIB] teal6 vs Laroxyl [SPA] - replay
[PLA] kythr vs Wail Wailord [DYN] - replay
Week 1 Usage
Interesting Trends from Week 1:
[TMS] LilyAC vs dcae [SHO] - replay
[TER} KSG vs daunt vs [BRE] - replay
[FOX] Toadow vs Boulicrok [ISL] - replay
[GIB] teal6 vs Laroxyl [SPA] - replay
[PLA] kythr vs Wail Wailord [DYN] - replay
Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon | Use | Usage % | Win % |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Mienfoo | 9 | 90.00% | 55.56% |
| 2 | Pawniard | 7 | 70.00% | 71.43% |
| 2 | Staryu | 7 | 70.00% | 71.43% |
| 4 | Koffing | 6 | 60.00% | 66.67% |
| 5 | Grookey | 5 | 50.00% | 80.00% |
| 6 | Mudbray | 4 | 40.00% | 50.00% |
| 7 | Foongus | 3 | 30.00% | 33.33% |
| 7 | Ferroseed | 3 | 30.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Ponyta-Galar | 2 | 20.00% | 100.00% |
| 9 | Ponyta | 2 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 9 | Abra | 2 | 20.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Diglett | 2 | 20.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Natu | 1 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13 | Timburr | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Slowpoke | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Porygon | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Shellder | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Wynaut | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Magnemite | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Frillish | 1 | 10.00% | 0.00% |Interesting Trends from Week 1:
- Mienfoo reaches 90% usage: To no one's surprise, the best Pokemon in the tier after all the bans is Mienfoo. The versatility it offers with U-turn and Regenerator and ability to apply pressure with its Speed tier, Knock Off, and High Jump Miss make it the Fighting-type of choice over Timburr on many (winning) teams.
- All the winning teams this week had the same trio: Mienfoo, Pawniard, and Staryu. Grookey and Koffing were also popular additions to this trio, winning 4/5 and 4/6 games respectively that they were featured on.
- Several Pokemon that have been staples of the previous meta had a bad week: Foongus won 1/3, Ferroseed won 0/3, and Abra and Diglett won 0/2 matches that they were featured in.
- High Jump Kick(or Miss) is the best move in LC
- The return of hyper offense teams: Screens, Spikes stack, Sun, and Memento spam faced a huge loss with ban of Scraggy. It will be interesting to see how the new versions of these teams look with potential new members like Carvanha and Shellder.
- Galarian Ponyta is expected to replace Abra as the premier Psychic-type in the tier. Its higher bulk, Mystical Fire, and reliably recovery give it the ability to better handle these Mienfoo + Poison + Steel cores, especially in conjunction with a partner like Porygon.
- Speaking of Porygon, PoryPinch was a style that people expected to get better after Scraggy got banned.
