Metagame SCL I LC Discussion

Luthier

Don’t get mad, get even.
is a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a defending SCL Championis a Past SCL Champion
format shamelessly stolen from emma and inherently avarice
Approved by Corporal Levi

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Welcome to the Smogon Champions League 1 Discussion Thread -- LC edition! This thread will be used to discuss LC in SCL I related topics, whether it’s about the players, general metagame trends, matches, predictions and so on.
Commencement Thread
Schedule

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Pricelist

Luthier20500
dcae19000
kythr18500
LilyAC16500
Bushtush11500
Wail Wailord9000
Serene Grace7000
pdt7000
Expulso6000
teal65000
Toadow5000
Isza4500
daunt vs4000
frisoeva3500
Fille3000
Laroxyl3000
boulicrok3000
tazz3000
KSG3000



LC Player Cores
Orange Islanders -- pdt, boulicrok, tazz
Indigo Platoon -- kythr, starmaster
Power Plant Dynamos -- Wail Wailord
Uncharted Terrors -- KSG
Technical Machines -- LilyAC
Arena Spartans -- Laroxyl, Isza
Showdown Shoguns -- dcae, bushtush, frisoeva, tko, ninjadog
Mount Silver Foxes -- toadow, Expulso
Circuit Breakers -- Serene Grace, daunt vs, Fille, Osh
Studio Gible -- Luthier, teal6
 
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ninjadog

levi of the decade
is a Tiering Contributor
1. Showdown Shoguns (dcae, tko, ninjadog)

Yes I am putting my own team first, but I really don't think there's any arguing with dcae's undisputed #1 status in this field. Despite a poor game in the finals he dominated Snake last year putting up a 8-3 record, and has done well in LCWC (5-3) and LCPL (7-2) since then. He's also one of the most experienced in the field, with this being his 4th official. With support from both managers as well as from Xizaaa, it'd be a major shock if dcae didn't put forth one of the best records.

2. Indigo Platoon (kythr, starmaster)

Kythr is probably the most hyped player in LC right now, and for good reason. He recently went 8-1 whilst winning LCPL, and if you combine his LCPL, LTPL, and LCWC records it reads an extremely dominant 20-3, not to mention he's the current circuit champion. He's also regarded as one of LC's best builders and is capable of building a lot teams quickly, so this in conjunction with Star to look over them should be a recipe for success. The only doubt surrounding Kythr is that this is his first time playing at this level, but I wouldn't expect this to slow him down.


3. Technical Machines (LilyAC)

Lily returns for her 4th consecutive official as an LC starter, the most out of anyone in the field; she's gone positive in all three attempts previously and I'd expect this to continue here. She doesn't have any support but Lily is one of LC's most innovative and capable builders so I don't imagine this will be an issue. She hasn't been as strong in recent team tours (3-5 LTPL, 5-4 LCPL after starting 3-4) which is why I rank her below dcae & kythr, but nonetheless we should expect another good season from Lily.


I think there's a pretty sizeable drop-off after the top 3, the next 7 could really be argued for in any order.

4. Circuit Breakers (daunt vs, Serene Grace, Fille, Osh)

I'm a huge believer in dvs, he put up a really solid 6-3 record in LCPL en route to winning the title. He also has the best support in the tour in the form of Serene who worked with him in LCPL, whilst Fille & Osh are also capable of providing input. One thing I like about dvs' gameplay is that he has a really good feel for the game and making reads, and many of his losses come from poor risk assessment trying to predict every turn which is something I think he can easily improve upon with experience.

5. Orange Islanders (boulicrok, tazz, pdt)

Boulicrok has been a pretty consistent good albeit not great player for a while now, making the finals of several circuit tournaments and putting up marginally above .500 records in pretty much every team tour he plays, and in this field I think that should be enough for him to secure a respectable record. tazz will undoubtedly tryhard in helping him prep which should be a big help, and from what I've been told pdt was very involved during LCPl so I'm sure he can contribute as well.

6. Studio Gible (teal6, Luthier)

Teal is the lone non-mainer in this field, though did go positive the last time he played LC in an official back in Snake II. Honestly despite what people say he always seems to go around or just above .500 in officials no matter what tier he's playing, and I expect him to do likewise here amongst competition where his experience and lack of nerves is going to be a major advantage. Luthier will be supporting him, and although he hasn't been playing LC much himself recently, I do know he has be keeping up to date with the meta so I don't think poor teams will be an issue here.

7. Arena Spartans (Laroxyl)

Laroxyl is an interesting one, after breaking onto the scene with a really strong season in LCPL last year that arguably should have seen him drafted for Snake IV he has put up back-to-back negative records in LCWC and LCPL since then, probably not helped by a couple activity losses. In spite of this I think he's generally a pretty solid builder though I'd hope he can get some help from outside the chat as I know from experience it's pretty isolating by yourself especially your first time starting. I do love his attitude and confidence though, he actively requests to be slotted vs the opposition's best player in LCWC/LCPL so I'm sure this strong mindset will help him.

8. Uncharted Terrors (KSG)

KSG is perhaps the highest variance player on this list. He's only really broken through recently, with his 4-2 in LCPL this year including a win over Serene in the playoffs his only good team tour performance ever aside from winning the LPL MVP playing LC UU last year. He's certainly shown he's capable of beating top players at his best but I worry about his consistency, I think he's probably more like to pop off than anyone ranked 5th or lower but equally I think he's one of the most likely to flop. No support looks super concerning at first but I'm told he has Shrug, who was by the far biggest snub, in chat to help him. Let's hope we see more of the good KSG this SCL.

9. Mt. Silver Foxes (Toadow, Expulso)

This may seem low for a player of Toadow's calibre and with Expulso as support who honestly I think is pretty solid when it comes to building, but there is really one glaring issue here. Toadow has done pretty well in individuals, winning LC Majors which is still solid despite being a lesser importance tour, and making R6 of the LC Open*, the furthest of anyone in the field - this sounds deceptively good though as he received three straight act wins to start the tour into wins against Amukumara and Xiri before losing to tko. The glaring issue though, is the fact that he never plays SS in any forum team tour, instead choosing to play SM where he's hardly set the world on fire, going 9-12 across the past three tours. Even in LPL he chooses to play LC Doubles over SS. If this was back in SM he'd be ranked higher but I can't in good faith rank him well when he's pretty much never played SS in a bo1 setting.

10. Power Plant Dynamos (Wail Wailord)

This may be a controversial one given last Snake, but by his own admission in his LPL signup "They literally shouldnt. I just went negative in the last 2 lc teamtours. My all time lpl is also terrible.", he has struggled in everything he's played since, going 8-13 across LCWC, LPL and LCPL and failing to make any impact in any individual. It's also worth mentioning that his 6-3 last year was somewhat inflated by getting to play two absolute farms in CyberOdin and Shogarth in the final two weeks of the season. He's definitely capable of recapturing last year's form but he's been well and truly off the pace recently, and being alone without support doesn't fill me with much confidence given he was using stuff like Shelmet in LCPL. Hopefully Wail can get back to his best as it'll make for some interesting games.
 
i feel bad for kythr because while i understand he's an LC savant, he probably doesn't know about the starmaster curse where every LC teammate of starmaster's is garbage as hell. everyones saying this guy is great but tell me is there really anyone that can perform under the hateful eye of starmaster? i think not.
 

Merritt

no comment
is a Tournament Directoris a Site Content Manageris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributoris a Contributor to Smogon
Head TD
oh hey week 1 matchups are out
  • [TMS] LilyAC vs dcae [SHO]
  • [TER] KSG vs daunt vs [BRE]
  • [FOX] Toadow vs Boulicrok [ISL]
  • [GIB] teal6 vs Laroxyl [SPA]
  • [PLA] kythr vs Wail Wailord [DYN]
 
  • [TMS] LilyAC vs dcae [SHO] -> I cant imagine a better LC match. Last year I was fan of lilyacs' play, I always enjoyed seeing him playing. But Im a Dcaes' guy fan, so wild and funny, and one of the masterpiece in lindworms. Definetly a game to catch in live.
  • [TER] KSG vs daunt vs [BRE]-> Not sure about this one but I like daunt.
  • [FOX] Toadow vs Boulicrok [ISL] -> Another Im not sure but I remember I wanted at one point toadow for gibles so probably I scouted him and see something I liked on him.
  • [GIB] teal6 vs Laroxyl [SPA]-> Idk v well laroxyl LC plays but Teal with a good support always do well and he has the best support he can ask for in Luthy.
  • [PLA] kythr vs Wail Wailord [DYN]-> Wanted to bold kythr since everyone hypped on him but I want to win the price and I got impressed last year with wailord perfomance, he work so hard and its a user v easy to teammate and work with.
 
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LilyAC vs dcae

Only bolding dcae cause he's the best SS player I've seen recently. Truthfully haven't seen or don't know much about the others so don't want to mindlessly predict.
 
[TMS] LilyAC vs dcae [SHO] -- Lily is a cute name
[TER] KSG vs daunt vs [BRE] -- Ninjadog is a big believer in this individual
[FOX] Toadow vs Boulicrok [ISL] -- Boulicrok's avatar is hilarious
[GIB] teal6 vs Laroxyl [SPA] -- teal6 makes me laugh sometimes
[PLA] kythr vs Wail Wailord [DYN] -- Wail Waillord is not a cute name
 
ninjadog please gift me discord nitro
  • [TMS] LilyAC vs dcae [SHO]
  • [TER] KSG vs daunt vs [BRE]
  • [FOX] Toadow vs Boulicrok [ISL]
  • [GIB] teal6 vs Laroxyl [SPA]
  • [PLA] kythr vs Wail Wailord [DYN] - kythr is absolutely terrible at pokemon, but i'll be predicting the upset every week
 
dcae over LilyAC because they have more support and I want to see lily win anyway
ksg over dvs because goat vs nongoat
toad over bouli because toad was my teammate
teal6 over laroxyl because theyre motivated and laroxyl g3 webbed me
kythr over ww because kythr is going 7-2
 

Éric

rn hate club
is a Pre-Contributor
dcae vs lilyac: i think dcae is gonna farm everyone but this one will be hype
ksg vs daunt vs: daunt vs (5-0 in lcpl)
toadow vs boulicrok: i think bouli has an edge here but i could see it either way
teal6 vs laroxyl: im a laro believer
kythr vs wail wailord: im a huge kythr fan i think hell be unstoppable
 
[TMS] LilyAC vs dcae [SHO] -> dcae is the strongest player in the pool and I will probably be bolding him against everyone, but this is going to be a very close match. I'm not entirely convinced that the shoguns, even with all their support, are as likely to get the initial meta right when compared to lily. dcae will probably look unstoppable once they figure it out, but lily has a great chance of pulling ahead at this early stage.
[TER] KSG vs daunt vs [BRE] -> this match is probably even closer than Lily vs dcae. I know a lot of people are very high on daunt from his fantastic LCPL performance, but I consider KSG's just as strong. I was equally impressed by their play during that tournament, but I'll bold daunt purely because of his unmatched support. With 4 LCers on the team they better be able to cook up some groundbreaking stuff in these first weeks.
[FOX] Toadow vs Boulicrok [ISL] -> I'm biased so I won't write about this one, but gotta get those predictions right
[GIB] teal6 vs Laroxyl [SPA] -> Luthier will be able to build 9 teams that would allow himself to go strongly positive in this tournament quite easily, but whether or not he will be able to build teams that will allow teal to do well is an entirely different question. Worse yet, he may build teams that fit his style well and succeed due to his prowess rather than the quality of team itself, and end up flopping in teal's inexperienced hands. teal probably has the individual skill to learn LC well enough to go even if he really put his mind to it, but I can't bold him this first week against Laroxyl, who should do solidly well in this tournament.
[PLA] kythr vs Wail Wailord [DYN] -> I unfortunately am forced to break the right side supremacy for this last one, but predicting against kythr when he is facing anyone not named lily or dcae would be absolutely criminal. kythr has been on fire lately while wail has been struggling since his performance in last year's snake. I think that Wail absolutely has the in-game skill to do well in this tournament, but too often defeats himself in the builder. If he can clean himself up and return to the form he was in last snake this will be a close game, but otherwise I'm anticipating the first of many kythr wins.

free the prediction tour
 
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Levi said this was okay
Format/content borrowed from BasedWhat?


Now introducing: SCL I LC Predictions!

Prizes:
  • 1st place: 1 Month of Discord Nitro generously sponsored by daunt vs and a free commissioned pokemon cat/dog/fish/etc. girl/boy/etc by Gummy (her art thread)
  • 2nd place: 1 Month of Discord Nitro Classic generously sponsored by ninjadog


Rules:
  • 1 point per correct game outcome based on team, and an additional 2 bonus points are awarded for anyone that "clean sweeps" a week, i.e. they predict all 5/5 game outcomes correctly. Note that if a person is subbed, your prediction will be counted based on that sub winning on behalf of the original person on the lineup.
  • You must pick exactly one winner (no bolding the "vs.") for each of the 5 games.
  • Your post will be scored at the end of the week only if it has no edits. You may make a new post if you want to change your predicts so as long as it is before the first game of the week is played (in other words, don't try to cheese the first game outcome by making a post while it's being played. I reserve the right to remove anyone from the competition if their prediction timing seems suspicious for any reason.)

If you got 3/5 correct, your weekly score would be 3. If you got all 5/5 correct, your weekly score would be 7 (5, then +2 for a clean sweep). The sum of all weekly scores in the regular season will be your final score. The highest scoring individual which was never disqualified will be deemed the winner.

Standings Spreadsheet

I encourage people to discuss WHY their predicts are the way they are. This is entirely optional, but it's nice to see people overview player matchups so as to justify why one player emerge victorious over another.

[Power Rankings for your reference]

Week 1 Template
LilyAC vs dcae
KSG vs daunt vs
Toadow vs Boulicrok
teal6 vs Laroxyl
kythr vs Wail Wailord

Because some predictions for this week have already been made, I'm amending rule #3 for prediction posts made before this one. You can edit your post instead of making a new one - just make sure you do so before the first LC game of the week starts.
 
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LilyAC vs dcae- Lily's creativity might be too much in a completely new meta, but this will be the closest match.
KSG vs daunt vs- Dvs is slightly better and has more support
Toadow vs Boulicrok- Bouli has more ss experience in tours+ I've seen them first hand in lcwc
teal6 vs Laroxyl- Asssuming Luthier will pass something neat and win via mu
kythr vs Wail Wailord- Kythr has momentum
 

drakey

um dia a gente vai namorar e eu vou te trair muito
LilyAC vs dcae
KSG vs daunt vs
Toadow vs Boulicrok
teal6 vs Laroxyl
kythr
vs Wail Wailord
 

kythr

save the ocean
is a Tutoris a Tiering Contributoris a former Tournament Circuit Champion
LilyAC vs dcae - debatably the best possible mu of scl already... going with dcae since he's been more impressive in lcwc and lcpl than lily has, but lily is one of the best lc players of all time and should always have a great shot at winning any game she plays, so i wouldn't be surprised if this went the other way
KSG vs daunt vs - i think this is the closest mu of the week. both of these are gonna super tryhard but i have a feeling dvs is gonna come up with a favorable mu that will give him the edge.
Toadow vs Boulicrok - imo boulicrok is the better builder and player in sslc. should be a close one too as toadow is also a phenomenal player.
teal6 vs Laroxyl - laro should have the advantage here as this will be teal's first week in new territory and luthier is still figuring out building maybe.
kythr vs Wail Wailord - i am going to lose to a shelmet
 

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