Set Piece Battles

Tobes

Tobes

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Since there's been a bit of discussion about prediction lately I figured now would be a good time to make this. Welcome to Set Piece Battles. These are designed to test your ability to assess a given gamestate and plan your way to victory. I'll periodically post a Set Piece Battle. You're all free to post your solutions to it. Each Set Piece Battle will consist of three remaining Pokemon on each team; assume you've entered the battle midway. From here you can assess how either of the teams presented can achieve victory. All information about the current status of the battle will be presented to you, including movesets, information known by the opponent, current health of each Pokemon, and field conditions. You will also be supplied with plenty of damage calculations to aid your decision-making. Keep in mind there is no single route to victory. It'll be more like a branching path of possibilities. If you create a set piece battle of your own and wish to share it, please PM me it instead of posting. If it's good enough I'll add it to the OP and credit you with it.

Team 1:

tornadust.png

Tornadus-T @ Life Orb (Active) (Known to be LO Tornadus-T by Opponent) (46% HP)
Regenerator
Naive 4 Atk / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
- Hurricane
- Superpower
- Taunt
- U-turn

677.png

Keldeo @ Choice Scarf (Badly Poisoned) (43% HP) (Known to be Choice Scarf Keldeo by Opponent)
Justified
Timid 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
- Surf
- Secret Sword
- Hidden Power [Ice]
- Hydro Pump (5 PP Remaining)

467.png

Magnezone @ Choice Specs (55% HP)
Magnet Pull
Timid 4 HP / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
- Thunderbolt
- Flash Cannon
- Hidden Power [Fire]
- Volt Switch

Team 2:

680.png

Genesect @ Choice Scarf (Active) (+1 SpA) (62.5% HP) (Known to be Scarf Genesect by opponent)
Download
Naive 8 Atk / 248 SpA / 252 Spe
- U-turn
- Thunder
- Ice Beam
- Bug Buzz

121.png

Starmie @ Leftovers (100% HP)
Natural Cure
Timid 252 HP / 4 SpA / 252 Spe
- Scald
- Psyshock
- Recover
- Rapid Spin

186.png

Politoed @ Leftovers (44% HP)
Drizzle
Bold 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 SpD
- Scald
- Ice Beam
- Toxic
- Protect

Battle Conditions:

Weather: Rain
Entry Hazards Affecting Team 1's Field: Stealth Rock
Entry Hazards Affecting Team 2's Field: N/A

Relevant Calculations:

252 SpA LO Tornadus-T Hurricane vs Naive Genesect: 93.3% - 110.2%
252 SpA LO Tornadus-T Hurricane vs 252 HP Starmie: 80.6% - 94.8%
4 Atk LO Tornadus-T U-turn vs 252 HP Starmie: 46.3% - 54.9%
252 SpA LO Tornadus-T Hurricane vs 252/4 Politoed: 58.9% - 69.5%

252 SpA Rain Keldeo Surf vs Naive Genesect: 95.4% - 112.4%
252 SpA Rain Keldeo Hydro Pump vs 252 HP Starmie: 51.5% - 60.8%
252 SpA Rain Keldeo Hydro Pump vs 252/4 Politoed: 37.5% - 44.5%
252 SpA Keldeo Secret Sword vs 252/252 Bold Politoed: 31.3% - 37%

252 SpA Choice Specs Magnezone Thunderbolt vs Naive Genesect: 95.8% - 112.7%
252 SpA Choice Specs Magnezone Volt Switch vs Naive Genesect: 70.3% - 83%
252 SpA Choice Specs Magnezone Volt Switch vs 252 HP Starmie: 121% - 143.2%
252 SpA Choice Specs Magnezone Volt Switch vs 252/4 Politoed: 89.1% - 105.2%

+0 248 SpA Genesect Thunder vs Naive Tornadus: 82.3% - 97%
+1 248 SpA Genesect Thunder vs 4 HP Magnezone: 32.6% - 38.3%
+0 8 Atk Genesect U-turn vs 4 HP Magnezone: 13.9% - 16.7%
+1 8 Atk Genesect U-turn vs 4 HP Magnezone: 22.3% - 26.6%
+0 248 SpA Genesect Bug Buzz vs 4 HP Magnezone: 24.5% - 28.7%
+1 248 SpA Genesect Bug Buzz vs 4 HP Magnezone: 36.5% - 43.3%

4 SpA Rain Starmie Scald vs Naive Tornadus-T: 53.2% - 62.5%
4 SpA Rain Starmie Scald vs 4 HP Magnezone: 50% - 58.9%
4 SpA Starmie Psyshock vs Keldeo: 58.2% - 69.3%

Rain Politoed Scald vs Naive Tornadus: 48.2% - 57.2%
Rain Politoed Scald vs 4 SpD Keldeo: 16.3% - 19.4%
Politoed Ice Beam vs Naive Tornadus: 51.5% - 60.9%

Set Piece Battle #2

Team #1

205.png

Forretress @ Leftovers (Active) (9% HP)
Sturdy
Relaxed 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 SpD (0 Speed IV)
- Stealth Rock
- Spikes
- Volt Switch
- Rapid Spin

373.png

Salamence @ Choice Scarf (16% HP)
Moxie
Jolly 252 Atk / 4 SpA / 252 Spe
- Outrage
- Earthquake
- Flamethrower
- Dragon Claw

503.png

Rotom-W @ Leftovers (75% HP)
Levitate
Timid 4 HP / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
- Hydro Pump
- Volt Switch
- Hidden Power Ice
- Trick

Team #2

38.png

Ninetales @ Choice Scarf (47% HP) (Locked into Toxic) (Active)
Drought
Calm 248 HP / 8 Def / 252 SpD
- Flamethrower
- Hidden Power Fighting
- Toxic
- Rest

450.png

Garchomp @ Leftovers (77.5% HP)
Rough Skin
Jolly 252 HP / 4 Def / 252 Spe
- Dragon Tail
- Earthquake
- Fire Blast
- Stealth Rock

667.png

Volcarona @ Life Orb (90%) (Paralyzed)
Flame Body
Timid 4 Def / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
- Fire Blast
- Bug Buzz
- Giga Drain
- Quiver Dance

Battle Conditions:

Weather: Sun
Entry Hazards Affecting Team #1's Field: Stealth Rock, 1 layer of Spikes
Entry Hazards Affecting Team #2's Field: 1 layer of Spikes

Relevant Calculations

252 Atk Salamence Outrage vs 248/8 Ninetales: 72.5% - 85.4%
252 Atk Salamence Dragon Claw vs 248/8 Ninetales: 48.4% - 57%
252 Atk Salamence Outrage vs 252/4 Garchomp: 100% - 117.6%
252 Atk Salamence Dragon Claw vs 252/4 Garchomp: 67.1% - 79%
252 Atk Salamence Outrage vs 4 Def Volcarona: 91.6% - 108%
252 Atk Salamence Dragon Claw vs 4 Def Volcarona: 61.1% - 72.3%

252 SpA Rotom-W Hydro Pump (Sun) vs 248/252+ Ninetales: 35% - 41.8%
252 SpA Rotom-W Hidden Power Ice vs 252 HP Garchomp: 72.4% - 85.7%
252 SpA Rotom-W Hydro Pump (Sun) vs Volcarona: 48.2% - 56.6%

Garchomp Earthquake vs 252/252+ Forretress: 21.5% - 25.4%
Garchomp Dragon Tail vs Rotom-W: 31.5% - 37.8%

252 SpA LO Volcarona Giga Drain vs 4 HP Rotom-W: 85.5% - 101.2%
 
Right now the only option is to switch directly into your Scarf Keldeo. If they Thunder, it dies and you kill their Genesect with Magnezone. You cannot go directly to Magnezone because it will be 2HKOed. If you leave Tornadus in, Starmie will sweep your entire team, Tornadus is your only win condition and you must preserve it at all costs. You are in a very poor position, your only real victory relies on getting confusions from Hurricane against their Starmie. After you trap Genesect they will be forced to use Starmie to KO magnezone (you have to sac it). If Politoed doesn't triple protect, you win or die to LO recoil

Your opponent's correct play is to use Thunder which will 2hko Magnezone if it switches in and which will kill Tornadus and Keldeo. If you keep Tornadus in, then Starmie has an easy sweep as it walls Keldeo to all day and OHKO's your Magnezone after SR. Your opponent could U-turn, knowing you have to preserve Tornadus, and if you stay in they can sac Politoed, which could be fine, so if it was me as your opponent I might do that.

The last option is to sacrifice Magnezone to let Scarf Keldeo get in for free. After Genesect Ko's it with Thunder, you spam Hydro Pump to 2hko whatever they switch in. If they switch in Politoed as a sacrifice and you role max damage it dies, and your Keldeo will be at 32% from that 1 turn of toxic damage (+SR) either way. You can send in Tornadus on their Politoed (unless Keldeo's Hydro Pump rolled max damage in which case you win) as it protects to rack up Toxic damage. Use Hurricane to KO it, then they send in Scarf Genesect and you have the same situation only your Keldeo is 18% weaker (2 SR switch ins and 1 turn of Toxic Damage), and Politoed and Magnezone are dead.

Team 2 wins because they have Stealth Rock and you don't, it's really that simple.
 
Ok, this was a bit of a puzzler

Turn 1, switch to keldeo. If it dies to thunder, then switch to magnezone afterwards. I'm assuming they would thunder in this case. Otherwise, eat a U-turn and if it survives, then use hydro pump on anything, but if it dies to u-turn, the game is won, as gene sweeps with thunder. However, if they thunder keldeo instead:

Switch to magnezone, gene can't escape and kill with thunder. Then, if he switches to politoed, I'll outspeed, so he'll go into starmie. Switch into tornadus-t, U-turn either starmie or politoed. If he switches to politoed, then go back to magnezone and volt switch for the kill. Then, go back to tornadus, use another U-turn, sac magnezone, and hurricane sweep. If he lets starmie take the damage, sac magnezone and sweep with hurricane.

EDIT: Oh, wait. You can't switch tornadus in on a scald....the best option is to hope for confusion hax. 15% chance, a bit higher than critical chance. This looks like a game winning position for the opponent.

It looks like thunder on the first turn is inferior to U-turn, but I don't think the opponent would do that. Taking down thundurus quick would allow a starmie sweep, unless supercrits with hydro pump. Nobody would risk U-turning out and having one less poke die to a hurricane.
 
you can assess how either of the teams presented can achieve victory
Click to expand...
I guess this means I can post a solution for team 2...I did this kind of late at night, so I may be horribly wrong.

Solution to win using team 2:
First, I'd go straight for thunder.

If magnezone comes in I 2hko, and then keldeo comes in to revenge (36.75% after SR). I switch in starmie, who will most likely get 2hkoed to bring politoed in safely. Keldeo will be at 18% now. Use protect with toed as keldeo dies to toxic. Let toed die to a hurricane, bring in genesect and sweep.

If tornadus gets sacced, things rely a tiny bit more on luck, but are still in my favor. Keldeo comes in to revenge (36.75% after SR). I switch in toed, who can live the hydro pump 87.5% of the time (if it hits), and then protect. Keldeo will be at 18% now (or 30.5% if toed gets killed in one hit). Starmie comes in, takes the hydro pump like a boss and goes for scald. Keldeo dies to toxic if it doesn't die to the scald. Sweeping time with starmie + genesect.
 
Team 2 can always wins!

A) Tornadus-T Switches Out (+33% = 79%)

AA) Keldeo Switches In (-6.25% = 36.75%)
Genesect uses Bug Buzz (35%)
Keldeo takes poison damage (-6.25% = KO)
Keldeo Fainted!

AAA) Tornadus-T Switches In (-25% = 54%)
Genesect Switches Out
Politoed Switched In
Tornadus-T uses Hurricane (-59% = KO)
Tornadus-T suffers LO recoil (-10% = 44%)
Politoed Fainted!

Genesect Switches in
Genesect download boost's it's SpA
Genesect uses Thunder (-124% = KO)*
Tornadus-T Fainted!

*Even if Tornadus switched he would still get killed

Magnezone Switches in! (-6.25 = 48.75%)
Genesect uses Thunder (-32.5% = 16.25%)
Magnezone uses Thunderbolt! (-96% = KO)
Genesect Fainted!

Starmie Switches in
Stamie uses Scald! (-50% = KO)
Magnezone Fainted!

Player 2 wins!

AAB) Magnezone Switches in! (-6.25 = 48.75%)
Genesect uses Bug Buzz (-36.5% = 12.25%)
Magnezone uses Thunderbolt! (-96% = KO)
Genesect Fainted!

Starmie Swithes in
Stamie uses Scald! (-50% = KO)
Magnezone Fainted!

Tornadus-T Switched in! (-25% = 54%)
Tornadus-T used Hurricane! (-95% = 5%)
Tornadus-T suffers LO recoil (-10% = 44%)
Starmie uses Scald! (-53% = KO)
Tornadus-T Fainted!

Player 2 wins!

AB) Magnezone Switches in! (-6.25 = 48.75%)
Genesect uses Bug Buzz (-36.5% = 12.25%)
Genesect uses Bug Buzz (-36.5% = KO)
Magnezone Fainted!

Keldeo Switches In (-6.25% = 36.75%)
Genesect Switches Out
Politoed Switches In
Keldeo uses Hydro Pump (-43% = 1%)
Keldeo takes poison damage (-6.25% = 30.5%)
Politoed gets leftovers recovery (+6.25% = 7.25%)

Politoed uses Protect!
Keldeo used Hydro Pump (-0% = 7.25%)
Keldeo takes poison damage (-12.5% = 18)
Politoed gets leftovers recovery (+6.25% = 13.5%)

Keldeo uses Hydro Pump (-38% = KO)
Politoed fainted!
Keldeo takes poison damage (-18.75% = KO)
Keldeo Fainted!

Genesect Switches in
Genesect download boost's it's SpA
Genesect uses Thunder (-124% = KO)
Tornadus-T Fainted!

Player 2 wins!

B) Tornadus-T stays in
Genesect uses Bug Buzz (42% = 4%)
Tornadus-T uses Hurricane
Genesect Faints!
Tornadus-t suffers LO recoil (-10% = KO%)
Tornadus-T Faints!

Keldeo Switches In (-6.25% = 36.75%)
Keldeo uses Hydro Pump (-61% = 39%)
Starmie uses Psyshock (-58 = KO)

Magnezone Switches in! (-6.25 = 48.75%)
Stamie uses Scald! (-50% = KO)
Magnezone fainted!

Player 2 wins!


Just by using Bugg Buzz you'll make sure you take down a member of the opposing team, player 2 has the control in the entire match, an unless he get unlucky he will always win, even sometimes where a crit or something will kill a switch in he can come back, like if Hydro Pump KOed Politoed you can stall with Starmie and recover or just attack with Psyshock, then be revenged by Tornadus an then revenge back with Genesect's Thunder

Oh, that took longer than I expected, no wonder many beat me to it :3
 
I've been at this for an hour and I can say that there's only one effective way for team 1 to win.

Step 1. Switch out and sac Keldeo to thunder. Thunder is the best option because it would 2hko magnezone if it switched in and kos everything else

Step 2. Switch in Magnezone and ko it with thunderbolt. at this point it's the only move you can make.

Step 3. Starmie switches in and kos Magnezone with scald. You switch in Tornadus and go for hurricane hoping for the about 15% chance that Starmie gets confused and hits itself in confusion to 2hko it with hurricane.

Step 4. Politoed comes in, you ko it with Hurricane and win

There's one more scenario too but that involves a much lower chance to win so I'm going with this. Nothing short of hax will allow team 1 to win. That starmie is at to high of health and if your opponent is any kind of good player, they'd know that it's the most essential pokemon to keep alive as nothing short of switching it in on magnezone's t-bolt would ohko it. So long as team 2 is smart and hax is on their side, they will win.

Edit: it looks like I got ninja'd by two people so just consider this emphasis XD
 
Team 2 wins every time unless they misplay or get critted/confused. All they have to do is Thunder with Genesect repeatedly until it gets KOd. Magnezone is 2HKOd at +1 SAtk, so if they switch it in then Genesect sweeps. However, team 1 needs both Keldeo and Tornadus to take down Starmie. If they sac either of these to bring Magnezone in safely, Starmie cleans up barring a crit or Hurricane confusion.

There are 3 ways Team 1 can beat Team 2 via hax in the above scenario:
-Hydro pump needs to hit AND crit = 0.8 x 0.0625 = 0.05 chance
-Hurricane needs to crit = 0.0625 chance
-Hurricane needs to confuse and Starmie must hit itself in confusion = 0.3 x 0.5 = 0.15

Chance of winning via hax = 1 - (chance of no hpump crit, no hurricane crit, no hurricane confusion)
= 1 - (0.95 x 0.9375 x 0.85)
= 1 - 0.757
= 0.243

Therefore, factoring in the chance of hax, team 1 has a 24.3% chance of winning if Genesect uses Thunder on turn 1 (I think, I haven't studied maths in 2 years but I think that looks about right)


Team 1 only have a chance of winning (assuming no luck elements activate) if Genesect stays in and U-Turns whilst Tornadus also U-Turns on the Politoed switch-in. Team 1 can then bring in Keldeo, which KOs Politoed with Hydro Pump. Team 2 is forced into Starmie, so team 1 sacs Keldeo to get damage off with Hydro Pump. Tornadus-T comes in, KOs Starmie. Genesect switches in, KOs Tornadus and Magnezone wins it.

Basically the only way team 1 wins (barring hax) is if Team 2 messes up on turn 1 and U-Turns out.
 
Good Game Team 2. Team 1 winning without hax.

I figured out how team 1 wins every time.

Turn 1:

Tornadus switches out to magnezone.

Genesect uses thunder.

Turn 2:

Genesect uses thunder.

Magnezone faints.

Keldeo is sent out.

Turn 3:(this is where it splits)

Keldeo used Hydro pump.

Genesect faints.

Opponent sends out starmie.

Turn 4:

Kedleo uses Hydro Pump(Starmie is at 15%)

Starmie uses psyshock.

Keldeo faints.

Tornadus-t is sent in.

Turn 5:

Torndaus-t uses hurricane.

Starmie faints.

Politoed is sent in.

Turn 6

Politoed used protect.

Tornadus-t uses hurricane.(Politoed is protected)

Turn 7:

Tornadus-t used hurricane.

Politoed faints.

I win :) Back to turn 3.

Turn 3:

Genesect switches out.

Starmie/politoed is sent in.

Either are 2hko'd.

Sends in Starmie(Politoed was KO'd, since that is the worse senario)

Turn 5:

Keldeo is switched out for Tornadus-t.

Starmie used Psyshock(only way to kill keldeo, so he'd use it).

Tornadus has at least 10% at a max damage roll.

Turn 6:

Tornadus-t used hurricane.

Starmie has 10% left.

Tornadus dies to LO recoil.

Starmie misses the attack or uses recover.

Enter keldeo.

Turn 7:

Keldeo uses Hydro Pump.

Starmie dies.

Turn 8:

Keldeo uses Hydro Pump.

Genesect dies.

I win :)

Split at turn 6. You had to have a gut feeling there. If he had switched to genesect, than you woulda had to switch to keldeo. Most opponents wouldn't have done that though. He switches to genesect you switch to keldeo. Keldeo uses Hydro Pump Either genesect dies, or Starmie is 2hkoed. In any situation, you gave us 5 hydro pumps for a reason :)
 
Why is Team 2 sacrificing Genesect on turn 3? Nobody would do that when they have Politoed available as death fodder.
 
Regardless, if Tornadus is at 10% or less vs Starmie, and Team 2 knows it is Life Orb, the obvious play is to Recover knowing it will take itself out. Hurricane will deal 94.8% max, leaving Starmie on 5.2% health. It will Recover up to 55.2% and Leftovers brings that up to 61.45%, out of KO range from Hydro Pump (60.8% max). Even with 2 max damage rolls, Starmie wins.

Also, Starmie has no reason to Psyshock on turn 5; Keldeo would die to a rain boosted Scald + poison. Keldeo would be at 31.5% HP if it got a very high damage roll against Politoed and KOd it, meaning it would take 28% minimum from Scald and die to poison at the end of the turn. If Keldeo got an average roll against Politoed it would be at 19% HP and Starmie would just flat-out OHKO with Scald. Tornadus-T cannot switch-in on the Scald otherwise it is KOd. Genesect cleans up.

Team 2 wins provided they don't choke.
 
PenguinX said:
Regardless, if Tornadus is at 10% or less vs Starmie, and Team 2 knows it is Life Orb, the obvious play is to Recover knowing it will take itself out. Hurricane will deal 94.8% max, leaving Starmie on 5.2% health. It will Recover up to 55.2% and Leftovers brings that up to 61.45%, out of KO range from Hydro Pump (60.8% max). Even with 2 max damage rolls, Starmie wins.

Also, Starmie has no reason to Psyshock on turn 5; Keldeo would die to a rain boosted Scald + poison. Keldeo would be at 31.5% HP if it got a very high damage roll against Politoed and KOd it, meaning it would take 28% minimum from Scald and die to poison at the end of the turn. If Keldeo got an average roll against Politoed it would be at 19% HP and Starmie would just flat-out OHKO with Scald. Tornadus-T cannot switch-in on the Scald otherwise it is KOd. Genesect cleans up.

Team 2 wins provided they don't choke.
Click to expand...

Tornadus-t always survives the first round of LO recoil after a max damage psyshock, so if it were to use recover, then it would die on the next turn.
 
But why is Starmie using Psyshock when Team 2 always wins if it just Scalds?
 
I made a mistake with Genesect's health, and have adjusted it. If I'm thinking things through correctly, Player 1 should now be able to win if they make the right plays. Sorry guys.
 
Team 1 switches out into Keldeo as death fodder on the Genesect Thunder. They then go to Magnezone as Genesect is in Specs Volt Switch KO range, and Volt Switch into Tornadus-T as Genesect is taken out. Starmie is forced to come in, and then its a 50:50. If Tornadus U-Turns into Magnezone as Starmie Scalds, team 1 wins, as Tornadus-T cleans up with Hurricane. Team 2 wins if Starmie Recovers on the U-Turn to Magnezone, as it can now KO Magnezone with Scald without being in Hurricane KO range.
 
Screw it, new message.

If team one goes to garchomp as forretress comes in, it should be GG. Rough skin blocks rapid spin. Then he uses earthquake for the free KO;assuming forretress spiked or volt switched. As a result, salamence is now dead. Should forretress have switched out as garchomp came in, it would still be dead, as would salamence. In all of these scenarios, rotom comes in with 62%. Garchomp should really just fire blast it in the face; if forretress gave him a free turn, he could hope for a low roll and a hit and dragon tail, but that seems like a bad idea. Either way, rotom-w sustains a little damage or none at all, then garchomp dies. At best;double misses and low damage roll, so rotom-w is back to 75%. The only way to muscle past volcarona is with two hits and two full paralyses;or with a critical, or with some weird combination of full paralyses, misses, and crits. Assuming none of that happens, team 2 wins. I don't know how much ninetales really does to rotom-w, but i'm going to put it in the category of "not enough", so if he isn't hit by volcarona, team 1 should really come out on top.


Team 1 can win by Sr'ing on the switch to garchomp. After this happens, Rotom-w can basically sweep through the entire team. I suppose a low roll by HP ice, combined with a dragon tail hit and dual rounds of SR, might take rotom-w in KO range of uninvested, STAB, sun-boosted flamethrower, or it might not. If it does, or if pump misses, Team one wins. if it doesn't, or if pump hits, team 2 comes out on top.

Was paralysed volcarona the detail you missed? Because i did NOT remember that.

As a final corallary, do you think you could also post the new set piece battle with your announcement of it? I find it annoying to keep having to scroll up to the top for every single thing, and i'm sure many people agree.
 
I forgot an important detail and edited accordingly, so both teams should theoretically have a chance to win now.
 
well, it's obvious that Forretress is forced to spin this turn, because switching out would result in dead Salamence and Forretress as well. You could switch to Rotom to predict the Volcorona switch in, but as the calcs show you're outsped and OHKO'd by Giga Drain. Besides, switching to Rotom is not the best idea, as Forretress and Salamence will fall to hazards and Rotom can't win by itself.

After spinning, I would Volt Switch after the turn Volcorona comes in. If it kills you; that's ok, you've got Salamence to revenge kill, and just Outrage until everything dies. Although that is really shaky, as you're speed tied with your scarf, if Volc Quiver Dances, it's your only chance at winning. Outrage until Volc and Ninetales die, and if you get confused sack either foretress or rotom and then bring Salamence back in to revenge. Your only chances of failure are if Flame Body burns or if you are outsped.

If team #2 brings in Garchomp the turn you spin, I'd say set SR with Forretress during that turn. If he kills you, that's ok, just switch to Salamence, and it's the above scenario. If he Dragon tails, you just got rocks up, and have a significant advantage against Volcorona and Ninetales. After a Dtail, if rotom comes out, hidden power Ice immediately. If Volc/Ninetales come in to take the hit, HPump them, and then switch to Salamence; above scenario. If they stay in, kill the Garchomp, sack Rotom, and then sweep with Salamence.

I'd say the best bet for team #2 would be to switch to Volcorona and get that QD down fast. Sweeping with Volc is your only chance to victory, and just as team #1's chances are 50-50, your are as well. As Forretress spins and you come in, QD immediately, no matter what. (unless Rotom comes in, then Giga Drain it to death) After a QD, if Forretress is still in for some reason, QD again. If Salamence faces you, attack- and half the time, you'll win.

If both sides play smartly, it's pretty much 50-50, all dependent on that speed tie between +1 Volcorona and Scarf Salamence.

EDIT: yeah lol missed the edit
 
I think Team 2 always wins.

Turn 1:
Forretress needs to Rapid Spin the hazards away, as Scarf Salamence is Team 1's win condition - it sweeps if it wins the speed tie vs +1 Volcarona or gets in before Volcarona sets up. Garchomp is the best switch-in here for Team 2, as if Forretress Rapid Spins it will die to Rough Skin in the process, preventing hazards from being spun away. The best team 1 can do if Garchomp comes in is to set-up Stealth Rock or another layer of Spikes.

Turn 2:
If Forretress use Rapid Spin on turn 1, it is now KOd. Team 1 loses, as Salamence also dies to Stealth Rock and Rotom-W may KO Garchomp but just loses to Giga Drain Volcarona. If Forretress used Stealth Rock or Spikes, it is still unable to spin later in the game, as it will be KOd by Garchomp this turn or if it switches out, it will die to hazard damage as it comes back in. Garchomp uses Earthquake as Forretress stays in and attempts to Rapid Spin. Garchomp can't risk the Fire Blast miss because after Turn 1's Leftovers, Forry will now live a turn of Rough Skin and Rapid Spin will succeed. Team 1 has no reason to switch-out Forretress, even if they go to Rotom-W on the Earthquake this turn the same scenario pans out. Forretress is KOd, Team 1 sends in Rotom-W.

Turn 3:
Doesn't really matter from here on out, Salamence dies to SR damage, so Team 2 just waits until Garchomp goes down then cleans with Volcarona.

edit: okay just saw the paralyzed Volcarona edit.

Forretress' best move on turn 1 is now to Stealth Rock. This will put Volcarona into Hydro Pump KO range after hazard damage. If Garchomp comes in then it will EQ for the KO and team 1 goes to Rotom-W. Garchomp is now back at 77.5% factoring in Spikes + 2 turns of Lefties, so its about a 50:50 whether HP Ice will KO. If it doesn't, Rotom-W gets Dragon Tailed out, Salamence is KOd and Rotom-W comes back in, now at 12.2 - 18.5%. Fire Blast in Sun does 18.59% if it hits, meaning it KOs. If it misses, Rotom-W KOs with Hidden Power [Ice] and Ninetales comes in. Rotom-W gains leftovers recovery putting it at 24.75% max. Ninetales outspeeds thanks to Choice Scarf and does 24.79% with Flamethrower in Sun, a guaranteed KO.

If the first Hidden Power [Ice] KOd Garchomp (or if Dragon Tail missed), Rotom-W would be at 67.5%. It would need to hit 2 Hydro Pumps to win the game.

So Team 1 wins if:
Hidden Power [Ice] OHKOs Garchomp (avg roll is 79.05%, so ~60% chance to KO)
Garchomp's Dragon Tail misses (10% chance)
Garchomp's Fire Blast misses (15% chance)
Hydro Pump hits both Ninetales and Volcarona (64% chance)
Volcarona gets paralysed as the Hydro Pump misses (25%)
Overall team 1 seems to have the advantage now that Volcarona is paralysed.
 
Ok I got it. Team 1 is winning this.

turn 1. Foretress rapid spins as ninetails switches

Turn 2. Sac Foretress Or if they switch to volcarona and butterfly dance instead of taking out foretress, volt switch to salamence.

Turn everything else. Salamence outrage sweep.

Team 1 effectively has a 30% chance to win. If flame body activates on Salamence and burns it then team 1 will probaly win.

Edit: How many people have noticed so far that volcarona is paralysed?
 
Team 1 can attempt to go for Rapid Spin but it will essentially by blocked by Garchomp's Rough Skin if they bring it in. You could predict the Garchomp switch in and double switch to Rotom-W, but both Forretress and Salamence will die to hazards and salamence is the win condition at the moment for Team 1.

Really, all Team 2 has to do is switch in Garchomp and force the Rotom-W to come in. It doesn't matter if Garchomp goes down to Rotom-W, because it essentially stopped Salamence and Forretress from doing anything relevant the rest of the match. If you sack Garchomp, you can easily bring in Volcarona and take out Rotom-W from there.

Also, Volcarona is paralyzed so there is no speed tie between ScarfMence and it. It doesnt matter because Volcarona doesnt need the speed anyway to win the match.
 
just saying, but volca is paralized so it cant exactly sweep with quiver dance. also, if you spin and garchomp switchs in, rough skin will kill you and you will still have srocks up. The only way team 1 can win imo is to to sr on the first turn with forretress, if he switchs in garchomp it will kill you and then u can hp ice that with rotom-w, then ninetales switchs in and if he does rest is going to die because hpump is a 3ko, so it will flametrower you. Then u can just hope that volcarona get para to win, otherwise team 2 win. If at turn 1 you do sr with forre and then they switch into volcarona, u can spin on volca, wait till he kills you, send out salamence and team 1 win again.
 
The correct play for Team One is to use SR with Forretress while they probably go to Garchomp, that will get Ninetales and Volcarona in range of Rotom-w's sun weakened Hydro Pumps. Garchomp should use EQ or Fireblast to KO Forretress, and after leftover it will be at 77.5% (thank you penguin x) and HP ice can ko an acceptable percentage of the time (though if they hit back it doesn't matter you win anyway once it's dead). If your hydro pump hits on Volcarona it's gg. If they try to Dragon Tail your Forry with Chomp, then you get to spin as after they switch in you'll be at 15% and Dragon Tail has negative priority.

Team two could predict this and switch directly into Volcarona, if it outspeeds Forretress (idk if it does) then it can KO it before it can spin (ensuring mence can't come back), and then Rotom-w can't ko you with Hydro Pump so you sweep if you don't get full para'd.
 
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