Smogon Simple Questions/Suggestions

Hey there, I'm just curious as to why I can't have / edit my signature? I know where the button is that I have to click to edit it but it just isn't there for me.

EDIT: Nevermind, I can see it now. Weird.
 
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sandshrewz

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Is there a thread on the forum anywhere with links to replays from big tournaments for people to view?
I don't think there's a proper archive of replays from official tournaments. However, you can check out the list of tournaments that happened here. Go to the ones with the (Official) tag, and people usually post replays of games in the finals there. Sorry there isn't any easy way to get them :d Occasionally final matches do get posted in the youtube channel too though.
 
I don't think there's a proper archive of replays from official tournaments. However, you can check out the list of tournaments that happened here. Go to the ones with the (Official) tag, and people usually post replays of games in the finals there. Sorry there isn't any easy way to get them :d Occasionally final matches do get posted in the youtube channel too though.
Smogon Premier League (SPL):
http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/spl-7-logs-replays.3560692/

World Cup of Pokemon (WCoP):
http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/world-cup-of-pokemon-xi-logs-replays.3574596/

Should satisfy your replay needs for a few hours!
Massive thanks to both of you guys for the help, appreciate it.
 
What's up with the server lately? I can't get into a battle without it lagging every few seconds. Sometimes it halts entirely, forcing me exit and re-enter. I can do anything else online easily, like streaming videos, so it is not my connection... could it be something else?
 
What's up with the server lately? I can't get into a battle without it lagging every few seconds. Sometimes it halts entirely, forcing me exit and re-enter. I can do anything else online easily, like streaming videos, so it is not my connection... could it be something else?
I've noticed this issue as well.
 

sandshrewz

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What's up with the server lately? I can't get into a battle without it lagging every few seconds. Sometimes it halts entirely, forcing me exit and re-enter. I can do anything else online easily, like streaming videos, so it is not my connection... could it be something else?
Hi there. I'm not too familiar with the PS server load. You might want to ask the question over at this thread as well where there will likely be more people more familiar with the state of PS :)
 

cant say

twitch.tv/jakecantsay
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Battle Stadium Head
could i talk to someone about getting my old badge back? dont exactly know where to put this lol
took this excerpt from the announcement in regards to badged users being banned:
we're making the policy I Could Be Banned = I Could Be Badgeless. If you're banned as a badged user, you lose your badges. Post unban you may have the opportunity to earn them back on a case-by-case basis, but this is certainly not guaranteed so I'd recommend not losing them in the first place.
I think the key phrase is "earn them back," so you'd probably want to show you're still contributing to the area you got your badge in. Since you had a Contributor badge I took the liberty of searching for all posts by you in the Contribute forum since you were banned but only found 2, that might hurt your case when you contact a member of senior staff.
 
How do you guys figure out the probability of consecutive attacks like chance to burn once with 2 scalds, chance to paraflinch with serene grace, etc.?
 

sin(pi)

lucky n bad
How do you guys figure out the probability of consecutive attacks like chance to burn once with 2 scalds, chance to paraflinch with serene grace, etc.?
You can work out the chance of burning/flinching 0 times, and subtract this from 1. The "formula" is:
P(secondary effect activated at least once) = 1 - (1 - p)^n
where p = chance to burn/etc with each attack, and n = number of attacks.
For example:
Chance to not burn with scald = 0.3
# of attacks = 2
1 - (1 - 0.3)^2 = 1 - 0.7^2 = 1 - 0.49 = 51% chance to burn with two scalds


Paraflinching has 2 components so it's a tiny bit trickier, but the concept is the same; if you want to work out the chance that your opponent gets flinched at least once, you need to work out the chance they attack both times and subtract this from 1. Taking paralyzed Latios vs Serene Grace Jirachi's Iron Head:
Chance to attack because of para = 0.75 (as there's a 25% chance to FP)
Chance to not get flinched = 0.4 (60% flinch from Iron Head)
P(no paraflinching, aka Latios attacks twice) = (0.75*0.4)^2 = 9%
P(Jirachi gets off at least one paraflinch) = 1 - P(no paraflinching) = 1 - (0.75*0.4)^2 = 1 - 0.09 = 91% (this sounds high but it's accurate!)
P(Latios gets BTFO and paraflinched twice) = (1 - (0.75*0.4))^2 = 0.7^2 = 49%

Some of this could probably be explained a bit better but I hope this helps!
 
TrulyDevious
Expanding on from what sin(pi) said, all of which is correct, a more general and less formulaic approach is to multiply the chances of each event happening together to get the probability of all events happening. For example, Focus Blast has a functional 7% chance to get a special defense drop. Let's see why:

Focus Blast has 70% accuracy, so the chance of it hitting is 7/10. It has a 10%, or 1/10, chance of dropping special defense. Multiplying the two gives 7/100, or 7%.

Now let's try a complicated example: What is the chance that Jirachi will paralyze Latios with Body Slam and Latios will be unable to move in the next two turns due to either Iron Head's flinch or paralysis?

Body Slam has a 3/5 chance to paralyze with Serene Grace. In the following turns, Latios has a 1/4 chance of full paralysis and a 3/5 chance of a flinch. However, we add the chance of flinch and chance of paralysis together before multiplying, since both result in the desired outcome of Latios not moving. This gives 17/20. We then square this number, since we're dealing with the next two turns, to get 289/400. However, we also want Body Slam to paralyze on the first hit, which is a 3/5 chance. Another multiplication gives 867/2000, which is 43.35 %.

A final and generalized example: What is the chance that a burn will not happen after n Scalds?

Although seemingly complicated, this is quite simple. The chance of a Scald burn not happening is 7/10, and we are dealing with this same probability n times So the result is 7/10 x 7/10 x 7/10 ..., or (7/10)^n.

Kinda long and wordy but I hope we both helped!
 
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cityscapes

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TrulyDevious
Expanding on from what sin(pi) said, all of which is correct, a more general and less formulaic approach is to multiply the chances of each event happening together to get the probability of all events happening. For example, Focus Blast has a functional 7% chance to get a special defense drop. Let's see why:

Focus Blast has 70% accuracy, so the chance of it hitting is 7/10. It has a 10%, or 1/10, chance of dropping special defense. Multiplying the two gives 7/100, or 7%.

Now let's try a complicated example: What is the chance that Jirachi will paralyze Latios with Body Slam and Latios will be unable to move in the next two turns due to either Iron Head's flinch or paralysis?

Body Slam has a 3/5 chance to paralyze with Serene Grace. In the following turns, Latios has a 1/4 chance of full paralysis and a 3/5 chance of a flinch. However, we add the chance of flinch and chance of paralysis together before multiplying, since both result in the desired outcome of Latios not moving. This gives 17/20. We then square this number, since we're dealing with the next two turns, to get 289/400. However, we also want Body Slam to paralyze on the first hit, which is a 3/5 chance. Another multiplication gives 867/2000, which is 43.35 %.

A final and generalized example: What is the chance that a burn will not happen after n Scalds?

Although seemingly complicated, this is quite simple. The chance of a Scald burn not happening is 7/10, and we are dealing with this same probability n times So the result is 7/10 x 7/10 x 7/10 ..., or (7/10)^n.

Kinda long and wordy but I hope we both helped!
That was a good explanation, but I have one minor nitpick.

To find the chance of Jirachi flinching a paralyzed Latios with Iron Head, you don't add the two chances together. If you did, a Jirachi holding a King's Rock would be able to flinch a paralyzed target (70+25)=95% of the time.

What you do is this: Calculate the chances of the move not flinching, and multiply that by 1/4 for the chances of a full para.

Assuming the move has a 60% chance to flinch, multiply the remaining 40% by 1/4 to get 10% (the chance of Latios both not flinching and getting full para'd). Adding the two together means that Latios has a 30% chance to move (and a 49% chance to be immobilized twice in a row).

If this doesn't make sense, think of it this way: It's possible for a Pokémon to be theoretically flinched and full para'd on the same turn; the game just rolls for them separately (and displays the first result). The full paralysis chance is not forced into the event it doesn't move. Basically: If the Pokémon doesn't flinch, then there is a 25% chance it gets full para'd.

Sorry if that was a bit too long, and the rest of your explanation is fine. I just wanted to point that out.
 
Before the update to the site for X/Y, Smogon not only had funny things to say about Pokemon, but moves and abilities as well. For example, Hyper Beam's page once said "No matter how cool Lance makes it look, Hyper Beam is a terrible attack. Two turns for one hit are not worth it." For the ability Normalize, it said "This ability sucks. The Pokemon that get it suck even more." It was hilarious. But after the X/Y update, Smogon removed all of these. Why?
 
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