w1: 11-7
w2: 12-8
w3: 9-9
OU: ramboss (20) vs (80) ABR - ABR showed last week that he is very beatable, but I still believe he is the most solid SM OU player in the tournament. ramboss surprised me with his win against Tamahome, but has been underwhelming otherwise. I guess I can see ramboss pulling the upset due to his willingness to use more out-there cores/strategies, but ABR should be pretty hard to beat regardless of that, so it will take a miracle.
OU: Tricking (70) vs (30) le LLiolae - Tricking wins like every fucking game I see him play. le LLiolae's most memorable moment was the traced Contrary Mega Alakazam debacle. Hard to give him much more of a chance than this, but I guess with newcomers also comes surprise, so maybe there's a shot. I just would not bet on it at all, so favoring Tricking significantly.
OU: Jimmy Turtwig (40) vs (60) Mana - Jimmy p much had a freebie last week, but Mana is a tougher opponent, has a better grasp on teambuilding, and is not afraid to use less orthodox Pokemon/sets, which could easily throw off an old generation main like Jimmy. Jimmy is a slightly better overall player, but I favor Mana here.
OU: Kory2600 (55) vs (45) ima - Kory has looked pretty poor lately, but I still think he has a great mind for building and I still think he is an alright player. Normally, I'd make this one 60-40ish, but going to lean a bit closer to even currently.
NU: Plas (35) vs (65) Sjneider - Plas is a cool dude and he has some interesting ideas, but I have never seen it really fully translate into success in game, perhaps due to inexperience or lack of in-game skill relative to top opponents. Sjneider has looked pretty good so far, using an interesting group of teams over the first three weeks. I do not think Sjneider is quite a top player in NU -- in fact, I think that as the tour goes on, people may catch on to him and punish him a bit more than he has been thus far. I do not think his success thus far has been fluky though, even if the rozes game was not great. I favor him comfortably here, but I think there is a certain element of uncertainty surrounding debuts and all, so who knows if Plas could shock the world or flop.
OU: Charmflash (49) vs (51) TonyFlygon - Bit of an upset pick here. Tony has looked pretty good the last two weeks and he knows Charm as good as anyone, having worked with him during his dominant SPL run. I think Tony has what it takes here and I also think that this team has a bit of new life, so I have faith they will pull through in the close games. Very interested to see what these guys use.
OU: Insult (55) vs (45) teal6 - teal's win last week was very surprising to me -- good work man, glad to see you finally getting a shot in SM OU. With that said, I favor Insult here. Both of these guys have quietly started off 3-0, but Insult has done it all in SM OU and also has a lot more experience leading up to this. teal is full of surprises and his playing ceiling is the higher of the two, so I have it as a close one, but Insult's the reliable pick here and he is really establishing himself as a strong option in SM OU.
OU: Hayburner vs frisoeva - Hard to say for me as I view them both as kinda borderline options with a lot of upside. Can see it going either way and not sure which side to pick.
OU: Tace (60) vs (40) TPP - TPP has not struck me as a Snake level player yet. I love the dude and sometimes he plays strong games, but other times there are numerous errors or oversights. I have listened to his takes on building and the metagame -- they're great and he is definitely a smart pick up/supporter. I just do not think his gameplay is there atm. He could win a game in which the match-up is favorable, which is possible given his understanding of the playerbase and the metagame, but I would not go out of my way to favor him. Tace has stumbled through the last couple of weeks, but I still remember his strong WCOP, OLT qualification, and w1 victory. I think Tace is the better player by a decent amount, TPP has a ways to go there, and we should see some good teams on both sides. Favoring Tace.
NU: Garay oak (51) vs (49) rozes - Man, garay being 0-3 baffles me. This guy has all the fundamentals down: he comes up with lots of unique ideas, he builds well, he no longer rushes through end games, and he knows the metagame inside and out. With that said, a combination of mid-game errors/sloppy plays, getting outplayed, and rough match-ups has proven to be costly. I still think that he is one of the best players in the field, but he has to be feeling a bit tilted after this start and his recent unfortunate exist in Grand Slam. rozes, on the other hand, is 2-1 and his loss was a game that was over before it really started. I do not think he is a top player, but he has proven to at least be competent and capable. I think I have to stick with the guy who I have backed all along because I still have faith in him for the same reasons as before, but my support is far less strong and firm now than it was going into the tournament admittedly.
OU: -Tsunami- (20) vs (80) Tamahome - Well it's Shake...against Tama....yea.
OU: xImRaptor (40) vs (60) Cdumas - I'm still pretty high on Cdumas and Raptor is a bit of an enigma to me. Raptor makes some crazy good plays, but he also has made his fair share of poor decisions as well. I like Raptor and I think he can beat some really good players, but I have trust in the ability and consistency of Cdumas now that he is at least off of his SPL tilt.
OU: Lopunny Kicks (55) vs (45) Updated Kanto - Kanto has looked pretty good so far, but I think Lopunny Kicks is one of the stronger players in the field overall and his grasp on building is a lot stronger. It should be close as Kanto has some nice, timely aggression going, but I still think he can get sloppy and while the same thing can be said about LopKicks, at least he knows the tier better and owns his teams, giving him a greater sense of how to find a path to victory within any given matchup.
OU: Relous (60) vs (40) Santu - Relous has been doing very well lately and while he may be on the quieter side, I have noticed that his plays and teams both are on par with some top players in the pool. I favor him here for sure.
NU: col49 (55) vs (45) Jrdn - col's endgame last week was not the most inspiring performance to say the least. Jrdn, unfortunately, has not been the most inspiring as of late himself. Both of these guys have struggled up to this point, but I think col has at least tasted consistent victory before and his brand of creative teambuilding is a bit more practical and proven. Jrdn has so many intriguing ideas, but sometimes they can be hard to make work in practice or sometimes he may go a little too far trying to make them work. I think he just needs a little more experience and he is going to have to get that the hard way against stronger opponents. I'll favor col slightly here.
OU: xray (45) vs (55) blarghlfarghl - I don't like bolding his name every week either, but here we are.
OU: Eeveeto (40) vs (60) z0mOG - Eeveeto's insanity is far more concerning than z0m's insanity. z0m had a good win last week had he not gotten unfortunate and I think if he stays positive, he will take this one to even his record out.
OU: Rexus (49) vs (51) HSA - I regret every time I pick this washed fucker, but Rexus has looked like someone who should not have his name bolded no matter what so far. Who knows? I certainly don't.
OU: Empo (55) vs (45) xtra$hine - xtra is solid, but Empo is better overall and will prove it here. Curious to see team choices from both, perhaps they will return to their routes and we will see some strong BO vs set-up heavy HO, which would be a thriller.
NU: ict (49) vs (51) Eternally - Another match-up where I feel like Eternally will be up against something that really puts him in a hole. This time around, however, I think he will play with a chip on his shoulder, knowing he has struggled here before, and pull through. Eternally really wants this one and also has been on fire so far, so I really see him winning this. Ict is solid and it is hard to pick against him given that and the fact that he has top support in the back, but I think he is a bit worse in-game and Eternally's teambuilding capabilities should not be doubted either.
