Tournament Smogon Snake Draft IV: UU Discussion

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Indigo Plateau

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UU Leader
Kinda sad to not see much activity here, I think there’s quite a bit to talk about as far as games played / teams brought so far and just how the meta seems to be changing a bit. But on to predicts we go.

CBU vs Poek - 51:49
It feels weird to not bold Poek when he’s looked very good in his first two wins and he’s 2-0 as opposed to CBU’s 0-2. Sure, CBU had a really unfortunate and game-changing Focus Blast miss last week, but that stuff is bound to happen, and the fact that it did is what makes me bold him this week. Anyone that knows CBU will know that he’s definitely heated over that and is hungry to get his first win this tour. I’m still a bit skeptical of the teams he’s brought - not because they’re bad (they aren’t), just because I wouldn’t really expect teams like that out of him. It’s good to try and throw people off, but imo CBU is best when he uses his aggressive playstyle with offense to just outplay and put his opponents in tough corners. Regardless of what he brings, he’ll most definitely have to do that against Poek, who’s looked really comfortable in this tier so far and gave Ramo little to no breathing room last week. Were this SM I’d bold CBU comfortably, but with Poek’s recent performances, this is bound to be an extremely close battle and my highlight of the week. Hoping CBU turns it around here, gl to both, give us a good one!

Ramolost vs SoulWind - 40:60
If I’m being honest, I wasn’t a big fan of Ramo’s team choice last week. It kinda gave me an ORAS vibe (stick MAero > Noivern lol) and I think these types of structures just really bank on netting a good matchup or playing matchups very precisely to make progress. After a teapot win week 1, I need to see more from Ramo before I bold him against someone like SW. I haven’t been particularly “wowed” by SW’s performances yet, though - week 1 he somehow won from an unfavorable spot against booty, and I think viv could’ve played a more aggressive game to give SW some trouble last week too. His teams haven’t stricken me as anything amazing, but he is 2-0 and has infinitely more experience than Ramo. I really want to say that I could see Ramo having a good shot with a good matchup, but given how SW has somehow won both previous weeks with not the best of matchups, that’s not enough to convince me yet.

Accelgor vs Sabella - 51:49
This one might look kinda weird to some. Accel has more experience in the tier and is off to a very hot start, beating Adam and 6-0’ing upcomer Lily, while booty hasn’t looked as good as I know he can, even if he did have an unfortunate Power Whip miss last week. On paper, all signs would point to Accel winning this one comfortably. However, I know booty will be very eager and motivated to bounce back. His builds have also been pretty diverse as of late, making it harder for Accel to gain the builder advantage that might sway this more in his favor. I’m honestly expecting a really close game here between two good friends that will come down to a crucial turn or two to decide the outcome.

Askov vs Luigi - 55:45
Really interesting matchup. After a bad week for the Serpents, they look to turn things around by shuffling their lineup a bit. I was actually a fan of how Askov was playing during Open, while I haven’t been a fan of Luigi’s showing so far whatsoever. Call me a doubter, but no Ghost resist week 1 into very... questionable plays last week hasn’t convinced me enough to bold him yet. Both have decent support in viv and hs, respectively, but I’m expecting Askov to be eager given an opportunity and can’t favor Luigi yet until I see better performances.
 

Adaam

إسمي جف
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Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Noivern            |   11 |  55.00% |  45.45% |
| 2    | Jirachi            |    8 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Zarude             |    6 |  30.00% |  50.00% |
| 4    | Terrakion          |    5 |  25.00% |  80.00% |
| 4    | Weezing-Galar      |    5 |  25.00% |  80.00% |
| 4    | Lycanroc-Dusk      |    5 |  25.00% |  60.00% |
| 4    | Krookodile         |    5 |  25.00% |  60.00% |
| 4    | Rotom-Wash         |    5 |  25.00% |  40.00% |
| 9    | Copperajah         |    4 |  20.00% |  75.00% |
| 9    | Slowbro            |    4 |  20.00% |  75.00% |
| 9    | Sylveon            |    4 |  20.00% |  25.00% |
| 12   | Incineroar         |    3 |  15.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Slowking           |    3 |  15.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Rhyperior          |    3 |  15.00% |  66.67% |
| 12   | Reuniclus          |    3 |  15.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Grimmsnarl         |    2 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Polteageist        |    2 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Cobalion           |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Palossand          |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Kyurem             |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Dragalge           |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Obstagoon          |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Rotom-Mow          |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Escavalier         |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Bisharp            |    2 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Chandelure         |    2 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Skarmory           |    2 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Gastrodon          |    2 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Tentacruel         |    2 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Necrozma           |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 30   | Sharpedo           |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 30   | Doublade           |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 30   | Mamoswine          |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 30   | Roserade           |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 30   | Mimikyu            |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 30   | Golurk             |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Keldeo             |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Tyranitar          |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Tangela            |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Mienshao           |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Virizion           |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Slowbro-Galar      |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Talonflame         |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Ribombee           |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Marowak-Alola      |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Tsareena           |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 30   | Steelix            |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
Usage stats for the first two weeks. Interesting to see only 1 single Keldeo and Mimikyu despite being 2 of the best mons in the tier, and Zarude already is seeing top 3 usage after its first week of being legal. Noivern is still the king of UU after a year of development, and the rock dogs seem to be unstoppable :pirate:
 
[Rattlers] CBU vs Poek [Lindworms]
[Taipans] Adaam vs Lilburr [Cobras]
[Bushmasters] Ramolost vs SoulWind [Nagas]
[Astrotias] Accelgor vs Sabella [Mambas]
[Serpents] Askov vs Luigi [Leviathans]

Week 3 matchups, also I’ll update the OP with replays later. Sorry for being late ‘-‘
 
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Pokemon usages stats

Alright so I'm not gonna talk about week 1 stats mainly because the metagame isn't the same anymore.

Week 2 Snake

Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Zarude             |    6 |  60.00% |  50.00% |
| 1    | Noivern            |    6 |  60.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Copperajah         |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 3    | Weezing-Galar      |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 3    | Slowbro            |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 6    | Krookodile         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 6    | Sylveon            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 8    | Terrakion          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 8    | Escavalier         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 8    | Lycanroc-Dusk      |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 8    | Tentacruel         |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Sharpedo           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Dragalge           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Doublade           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Rotom-Wash         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Slowking           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Mamoswine          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Roserade           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Rhyperior          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Mimikyu            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Reuniclus          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Tangela            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Mienshao           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Virizion           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Slowbro-Galar      |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Talonflame         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Cobalion           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Ribombee           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Marowak-Alola      |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Tsareena           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Bisharp            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Steelix            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

It's not really a surprise to see Zarude that high in usages. Since its introduction, Zarude has established itself as one of the best and most dangerous Pokemon in the tier, being able to pressure a lot of Pokemon thanks to its typing and coverage. It's also not a surprise to see that Slowbro has been a common teammate to it since Zarude + Future Sight Slowbro is a deadly core right now. Copperajah is another Pokemon which has been used a lot alongside Zarude as the main Steel-type for teams to handle things like Sylveon. HDB set are really hard to weaken while choice locked set can be really nasty to handle for teams which lacks of Weezing-G.


Noivern is another Pokemon which has been used in 6 of 10 teams this week and like Zarude it's pretty easy to understand why. Noivern is currently the best defogger in the tier and a really good revenge killer to a lot of threats thanks to its great natural speed. While most people have been using standards Noivern, we can highlight the fact that poek has been using Taunt Noivern as a great way to pressure Sylveon alongside Hurricane.


Last but not least those three have been used 4 times and really show the kind of core that UU is currently making. Weezing-G is basically the best current answer to Zarude thanks to its bulk and typing while Slowbro is one of the best defensive staples. Copperajah like as I said earlier in this post is one of the best Steel-types currently in the tier and unlike Cobalion or Escavalier, Copperajah is a "real" Steel-types which can handles Flying-types. Its access to Stealth Rock is also pretty useful while the AoA set is one of the hardest Pokemon to switch-into thanks to its mesmerizing moveset.
 
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Lily

wouldn't that be fine, dear
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UU Leader
Didn't do week 2/3 predicts but I'm 2/4 rn so lgi

:rayquaza: Poek vs SoulWind :tapu fini:
Both of these players lost last week, and both brought teams that I would consider... mediocre, to say the least, so I'm questioning how good their support is in this tier. SW has the advantage here on basis of skill, but Poek has brought more solid teams overall and has been playing pretty well on top of that, while SW has been playing well (for the first two weeks at least) but hasn't really had good teams at all, which resulted in some pretty poor matchups. He was able to outplay those matchups both times, but I don't think that'll be the case here.

---

:arbok: Lilburr vs CBU :thundurus-therian:
Playing Saturday, 8PM GMT+1 for anyone who wants to watch!

---

:milotic: Accelgor vs Askov :giratina-origin:
Accel is riding a 3-0 record right now, and it's not hard to see why. Between good building, solid play and obvious momentum thanks to his winning streak, Accel is looking pretty unstoppable. Askov, however, is also looking very good rn; between a phenomenal UU Open run and a 1-0 record this Snake, there's no way he can be counted out. This is probably the closest matchup this week for me, but I'm going to give it to Accel just bc he's got the hot hand and I like the teams he's been bringing a bit more than that one Askov brought last week, but it's a really minor edge.

---

:gyarados: hs vs Ramolost :serperior:
I can't believe I'm unironically predicting this game LMAO wtf is going on. hs always seems to destroy me whenever we play in any tournament with some weird ass cheese that I have absolutely nothing for, so I want to bold him based on that, but these two are undoubtedly wildcards. Ramo has pif support which clearly worked in his favour last week even tho I didn't rate the team too highly (sorry pif ily D:) and hs has nothing other than himself from what I can see. I think Ramo will take this just because the core of him + pif is really hard to take down, I'm surprised they're not literally dating yet, shame pif already has a boyfriend. Not a huge edge though.

---

:steelix: Sabella vs Adaam :zygarde:
Maaan I really wanna see booty win, especially considering his record seriously does not reflect how he's been playing, but I don't think Adaam's the person he'll get that win against. I rated Adaam at #1 in my PR and would probably bold him against literally anyone in this pool despite him being 1-2 rn. His teams have been great and considering all of his matchups have been pretty even, he's clearly doing well on the scouting front too. Booty has brought really cool stuff that has also destroyed me in tests time and time again, but when it comes to the actual game he keeps running into pretty horrid matchups, which is pretty strange given his manager's scouting prowess. I think Adaam will just pull a solid matchup and ride out the win from there, but if it's even, this one's really close.

---

Hoping to see some more cool games this week with 100% slowtwin usage and an unholy amount of Zarude + Noivern. Goooo Cobras!!
 
Week 3 Snake

Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Zarude             |    7 |  70.00% |  71.43% |
| 2    | Slowbro            |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 2    | Noivern            |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 4    | Copperajah         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 4    | Rotom-Wash         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 4    | Slowbro-Galar      |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 7    | Sylveon            |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 7    | Weezing-Galar      |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Incineroar         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Lycanroc-Dusk      |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Chandelure         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Rhyperior          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Cobalion           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Mimikyu            |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 7    | Ribombee           |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Terrakion          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Arcanine           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Palossand          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Tentacruel         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Doublade           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Klefki             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Chansey            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Quagsire           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Tangela            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Keldeo             |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Obstagoon          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Steelix            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Bisharp            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Krookodile         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Heracross          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Rotom-Mow          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Once again Zarude standouts as the most used Pokemon during this week with 7 Zarude out of 10 teams. We can also highlight the fact that Heavy-Duty Boots seems to be the most used item on it. Some players tried some spicy set such as Ramolost with its Bulk Up + Synthesis Zarude.


Like the previous week, those Pokemon are still pretty relevant. Both Noivern and Slowbro have been used in half of the teams of this week while Copperajah and Weezing-G have both been used 3 times.


Slowbro-G is a Pokemon which gained in popularity this week and has been used 3 times. Its AV set is its most known set and allows it to check a lot of Pokemon such as fairies (like Sylveon or Ribombee which both have been used 2 times this week) as well as being able to pressure a lot of common cores thanks to its Psychic+Poison+Fire coverage.


Defensive Fairy-types are still really common in most Balanced/BO teams. Both Sylveon and Weezing-G are still good staples in the current tier thanks to their ability to handle Pokemon such as Zarude.


Fire-types have also been used way more than previous week. Indeed, both Chandelure and Incineroar have been used two times while Arcanine has only been used once, in Ramolost team. Those Pokemon are quite nice pick in the current metagame since they're able to pressure Steel-types + Zarude. Also both Chandelure and Incineroar can pressure Pokemon like Slowbro/Slowbro-G which can be paired alongside Zarude with Future SIght.


Rotom-Wash and Rotom-Mow are still good Pokemon in the tier even tho it seems that players this week tend to prefer Rotom-Wash over Rotom-Mow. Washtom has been used 3 times while Mowtom only one time. Rotom-Wash seems to be the best option since it's kinda hard to justify a Grass-type in addition to Zarude in a team. That's probably why Sabella didn't opt to play Zarude + Rotom-Mow in his team.
 

pokemonisfun

Banned deucer.
So this game happened last week, I wanted to analyze the play (not the builds). Two notes: I don’t have the pastes of the teams and I’m here primarily to learn not to criticize. I’ll tag the players Adaam and Lilburr if they want to add comments.

The game: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8uu-517658

Adaam's team that I recreated (again, I'm just guessing, either player can correct me if they wish to reveal their team): https://pokepast.es/234c99141cc63585

Lilburr's team that I recreated: https://pokepast.es/f75b5eb2d17b6fbf
1600879518460.png

Okay just starting on match up, it seems both sides don't have significant hazard control (Lilburr is probably running almost pure HDB and Adaam is confirmed only to have a grounded Poison as hazard control) but both sides also don't have Spikes so that's even enough. Importantly, Adaam has huge threats in Obstagoon and MMQ which Lilburr does not have good responses to and while Lilburr's team certainly has more staying power, Noivern + Galarian Slowbro + Steelix seems to give Adaam all the bulk he needs. Overall, the match up seems to slightly favor Adaam because of Obstagoon + MMQ posing large threats but you could make a case for Lilburr as well because Slowbro will be very hard to break, Zarude can revenge Adaam's threats, and Incineroar has a surprisingly scary set (Flame Charge).

Lilburr get's a good lead but the Teleport doesn't put much pressure on Adaam because Lilburr's team lacks offensive presence so it seems Adaam could have set up SR very early by going Steelix on turn 2, not that it would help much vs near mono boots, but Adaam didn't know that yet. I don't know why he didn't get SR, it's possible his Steelix set was walled by Noivern so he thought getting SR was hopeless.

Turn 4, we get basically the exact same position as turn 1 except we have more information now, knowing Sylveon is likely boots, Adaam's Noivern is likely not Defog and his Galarian Slowbro is AV. For whatever reason, this causes Lilburr to play differently, Scalding here, which I totally agree with and she get's the burn, which will be helpful later. Since this is essentially the same position as turn 1, Lilburr probably played slightly inaccurately on turn 1 (Scalding was better than Teleporting).

Moving forward, in a risky series of moves, Adaam decides to cash in early and try to get a KO with Obstagoon. This was risky because Zarude could easily have Close Combatted Obstagoon on turn 6 which would give Lilburr a very large advantage, of course only she knows if she has it. You could argue either way that it was worth it for Adaam, but I consider his play here to be poor. The reason is, I argued above he had a MU advantage, there's little reason to cash in like this so early when you have a good Zarude response still (Steelix). Yes he got a Sylveon at the end of the day but he could have tried for more, and it cost him most of his Obstagoon's health.


Lilburr manages to get momentum back by playing accurately culminating in a classic Future Sight + physical attacker combination that Adaam's offense clearly cannot deal with, so Adaam has to give back Obstagoon which really highlights my earlier criticism. If I'm correct in saying Adaam had a MU advantage (debatable) then clearly he shouldn't have to be essentially trading his arguably top threat (Obstagoon) for Sylveon, he should be able to do better than a trade. Slowbro is also manifesting itself as Lilburr's top defensive threat, but a lucky Poison by Adaam gives him some breathing room around it on turn 16.

At the end of turn 16, I don't think Adaam really has an advantage anymore, even though MMQ is a huge threat, Zarude can pretty easily revenge and everything else on Lilburr's team except Noivern can take a hit at +2. However, Adaam gets a pretty fortunate crit on Slowbro on turn 19 which forces Lilburr to spend more time healing, letting Adaam get in MMQ for completely free on a weakened Slowbro, the ideal situation. Turn 21 is hard for both players and I don't fault Adaam at all for double switching but clearly SD or Shadow Claw would have been better in retrospect as Lilburr Teleports. The other option Lilburr had was to attack (predicting a SD) and then sack something else to revenge MMQ with Zarude - Lilburr cannot really afford to lose Slowbro unless it has Hurricane Noivern since Keldeo almost wins).

Adaam plays well for a few turns starting on turn 22, getting damage on Copperjah so MMQ can kill it at +2 later and getting Rocks at the expense of Lilburr also getting Rocks. But Slowbro presents itself as a huge problem for Adaam now, as his best counter to it on turn 25 is...Keldeo. Adaam gets a fortunate crit which sort of justifies this, keeping Slowbro slightly lower, but it's possible Lilburr could have just tried to abuse Adaam here by staying in on turn 26 by Slacking Off and only then Teleporting on turn 27 on a likely Flip Turn to Galarian Slowbro, which would let Lilburr do major damage with her dark of Choice.

Anyways, the same thing nearly happens again starting turn 28, showing that Lilburr's Slowbro may just win the game if Adaam doesn't find a new strategy. I don't know what to recommend Adaam to do here, but it's pretty clear spamming Surf on Slowbro is only a strategy if you want to deplete it of Slack Offs, which seems basically impossible. The Surf on turn 31 is basically stupid, it's just giving Slowbro a bit more health back on an obvious Slack Off, he could have just flipped right out of there immediately.

Lilburr gets a nice bit of damage on Copperjah on turn 33, likely revealing EVs to both players (but not the spectators), and on turn 34 its clear she has a nice advantage. Adaam is willing to risk the Noivern speed tie which indicates he thinks his position is worse than a coin flip but Lilburr isn't, indicating the reverse.

She continues to play well in my opinion until turn 41, where Lilburr seems impatient and gets Zarude in a little too quickly, costing it a lot of health on the Shell Side Arm and then she sacks it entirely on turn 43, a large error because it makes MMQ much stronger again. Zarude was a huge problem for MMQ not just because it could revenge, but it could also break the Disguise on demand with a faster U-Turn (it was still out of +2 Shadow Sneak range). I understand that weakening Steelix gives Lilburr another path to victory with Incineroar now (her first path is just spamming Slowbro) but it's also giving Adaam a path as well with MMQ. When you have a better position, I don't think you should allow for this type of counterplay and I actually don't think her position is better anymore by the end of turn 43.


I wanted to be critical of Adaam's play after turn 44 because I thought he could have had an opportunity to sacrifice Steelix for a game winning sweep but that opportunity was never clear. For example, if he kept Steelix in on Noivern on turn 44 and got MMQ in for free on turn 45 (not possible but let's assume Lilburr clicked Flames instead on turn 44), then Lilburr just U-Turns to Incineroar which beats MMQ's broken disguise and then Lilburr should have a sizeable advantage with Slowbro still.

Lilburr gets a nice prediction on turn 50, which ends Adaam's Noivern, a huge threat that could outspeed a +1 Incineroar, so I think at this point the match is quite even again. I don't fault Adaam for not going Steelix on the Heavy Slam, as Lilburr has shown she is capable of making the prediction there, this is quite close to a 50/50 in my opinion. This prediction leads into Adaam revenging Copperjah with MMQ, but that takes 22% of it's health off with SR + Life Orb and allows Lilburr to finally reveal Flame Charge Incineroar, which no doubt surprised Adaam.

On turn 55, Adaam is forced to preserve Steelix because MMQ cannot set up on Slowbro yet - Incineroar can take a +1 Play Rough so even if Adaam would need to get to +4 to sweep, so it seemed unlikely he could make it, having to avoid 2 Scald burns plus make a correct prediction on whether to Sneak or Play Rough on Noivern. However, he could get a slightly better version of that on if he sacrifices Steelix on turn 58 because Noivern is now in +2 Shadow Sneak range, but still chooses not to go for this.

Lilburr manages to expertly give up Noivern to get in Incineroar for free and to get a free flame charge as Galarian Slowbro is in range on turn 59. However, she has to avoid the Shell Side Poison and get a roll on Steelix, the roll is unknown to spectators as we don't know Steelix's EVs, only Adaam and possibly Lilburr really knows, but it seems entirely possible based off of previous damage rolls and Body Press rolls Steelix is max defense. Also, only Adaam really knows what his Steelix was at, it showed 40% for spectators but could have been as low as 39.1% I believe based on PS rounding.

If it is the case that Steelix was max defense and he was at 40%, I think both players played exceptionally well at the end, Adaam not taking any false bait to set up MMQ prematurely as I analyzed and simply going for a path where he was slightly favored to win based on the roll + Shell Side Poison + Play Rough crit chance. Ultimately, it worked in favor for Lilburr who could not Close Combat on turn 62 because of the defense drop, and a win is eked out by Incineroar.

I'm not trying to suggest Lilburr got lucky in this game, it's clear that the luck towards the start of the game favored Adaam and even more importantly it seems both of them played very accurately at the end despite potential kneejerk reactions from the audience, myself included, where it looked like MMQ should have swept.


To summarize the game:

Adaam held a slight MU advantage but quickly sacrifices it and doesn't get enough for it, only trading for Sylveon essentially, so Lilburr takes the advantage by turn 16. Both players continue to play excellently and just maintain the balance, which favors Lilburr, but I believe she made a mistep by giving away Zarude which gives Adaam's MMQ an opening. The players do deep calculations at the end to maximize their chances of winning - Lilburr tries to win with Incineroar and Adaam with MMQ.

10/10 game
 
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Lily

wouldn't that be fine, dear
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UU Leader

ramolost

parfum quartier
is a Tiering Contributor Alumnus
So this game happened last week, I wanted to analyze the play (not the builds). Two notes: I don’t have the pastes of the teams and I’m here primarily to learn not to criticize. I’ll tag the players Adaam and Lilburr if they want to add comments.

The game: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8uu-517658

Adaam's team that I recreated (again, I'm just guessing, either player can correct me if they wish to reveal their team): https://pokepast.es/234c99141cc63585

Lilburr's team that I recreated: https://pokepast.es/f75b5eb2d17b6fbf
View attachment 277543
Okay just starting on match up, it seems both sides don't have significant hazard control (Lilburr is probably running almost pure HDB and Adaam is confirmed only to have a grounded Poison as hazard control) but both sides also don't have Spikes so that's even enough. Importantly, Adaam has huge threats in Obstagoon and MMQ which Lilburr does not have good responses to and while Lilburr's team certainly has more staying power, Noivern + Galarian Slowbro + Steelix seems to give Adaam all the bulk he needs. Overall, the match up seems to slightly favor Adaam because of Obstagoon + MMQ posing large threats but you could make a case for Lilburr as well because Slowbro will be very hard to break, Zarude can revenge Adaam's threats, and Incineroar has a surprisingly scary set (Flame Charge).

Lilburr get's a good lead but the Teleport doesn't put much pressure on Adaam because Lilburr's team lacks offensive presence so it seems Adaam could have set up SR very early by going Steelix on turn 2, not that it would help much vs near mono boots, but Adaam didn't know that yet. I don't know why he didn't get SR, it's possible his Steelix set was walled by Noivern so he thought getting SR was hopeless.

Turn 4, we get basically the exact same position as turn 1 except we have more information now, knowing Sylveon is likely boots, Adaam's Noivern is likely not Defog and his Galarian Slowbro is AV. For whatever reason, this causes Lilburr to play differently, Scalding here, which I totally agree with and she get's the burn, which will be helpful later. Since this is essentially the same position as turn 1, Lilburr probably played slightly inaccurately on turn 1 (Scalding was better than Teleporting).

Moving forward, in a risky series of moves, Adaam decides to cash in early and try to get a KO with Obstagoon. This was risky because Zarude could easily have Close Combatted Obstagoon on turn 6 which would give Lilburr a very large advantage, of course only she knows if she has it. You could argue either way that it was worth it for Adaam, but I consider his play here to be poor. The reason is, I argued above he had a MU advantage, there's little reason to cash in like this so early when you have a good Zarude response still (Steelix). Yes he got a Sylveon at the end of the day but he could have tried for more, and it cost him most of his Obstagoon's health.


Lilburr manages to get momentum back by playing accurately culminating in a classic Future Sight + physical attacker combination that Adaam's offense clearly cannot deal with, so Adaam has to give back Obstagoon which really highlights my earlier criticism. If I'm correct in saying Adaam had a MU advantage (debatable) then clearly he shouldn't have to be essentially trading his arguably top threat (Obstagoon) for Sylveon, he should be able to do better than a trade. Slowbro is also manifesting itself as Lilburr's top defensive threat, but a lucky Poison by Adaam gives him some breathing room around it on turn 16.

At the end of turn 16, I don't think Adaam really has an advantage anymore, even though MMQ is a huge threat, Zarude can pretty easily revenge and everything else on Lilburr's team except Noivern can take a hit at +2. However, Adaam gets a pretty fortunate crit on Slowbro on turn 19 which forces Lilburr to spend more time healing, letting Adaam get in MMQ for completely free on a weakened Slowbro, the ideal situation. Turn 21 is hard for both players and I don't fault Adaam at all for double switching but clearly SD or Shadow Claw would have been better in retrospect as Lilburr Teleports. The other option Lilburr had was to attack (predicting a SD) and then sack something else to revenge MMQ with Zarude - Lilburr cannot really afford to lose Slowbro unless it has Hurricane Noivern since Keldeo almost wins).

Adaam plays well for a few turns starting on turn 22, getting damage on Copperjah so MMQ can kill it at +2 later and getting Rocks at the expense of Lilburr also getting Rocks. But Slowbro presents itself as a huge problem for Adaam now, as his best counter to it on turn 25 is...Keldeo. Adaam gets a fortunate crit which sort of justifies this, keeping Slowbro slightly lower, but it's possible Lilburr could have just tried to abuse Adaam here by staying in on turn 26 by Slacking Off and only then Teleporting on turn 27 on a likely Flip Turn to Galarian Slowbro, which would let Lilburr do major damage with her dark of Choice.

Anyways, the same thing nearly happens again starting turn 28, showing that Lilburr's Slowbro may just win the game if Adaam doesn't find a new strategy. I don't know what to recommend Adaam to do here, but it's pretty clear spamming Surf on Slowbro is only a strategy if you want to deplete it of Slack Offs, which seems basically impossible. The Surf on turn 31 is basically stupid, it's just giving Slowbro a bit more health back on an obvious Slack Off, he could have just flipped right out of there immediately.

Lilburr gets a nice bit of damage on Copperjah on turn 33, likely revealing EVs to both players (but not the spectators), and on turn 34 its clear she has a nice advantage. Adaam is willing to risk the Noivern speed tie which indicates he thinks his position is worse than a coin flip but Lilburr isn't, indicating the reverse.

She continues to play well in my opinion until turn 41, where Lilburr seems impatient and gets Zarude in a little too quickly, costing it a lot of health on the Shell Side Arm and then she sacks it entirely on turn 43, a large error because it makes MMQ much stronger again. Zarude was a huge problem for MMQ not just because it could revenge, but it could also break the Disguise on demand with a faster U-Turn (it was still out of +2 Shadow Sneak range). I understand that weakening Steelix gives Lilburr another path to victory with Incineroar now (her first path is just spamming Slowbro) but it's also giving Adaam a path as well with MMQ. When you have a better position, I don't think you should allow for this type of counterplay and I actually don't think her position is better anymore by the end of turn 43.


I wanted to be critical of Adaam's play after turn 44 because I thought he could have had an opportunity to sacrifice Steelix for a game winning sweep but that opportunity was never clear. For example, if he kept Steelix in on Noivern on turn 44 and got MMQ in for free on turn 45 (not possible but let's assume Lilburr clicked Flames instead on turn 44), then Lilburr just U-Turns to Incineroar which beats MMQ's broken disguise and then Lilburr should have a sizeable advantage with Slowbro still.

Lilburr gets a nice prediction on turn 50, which ends Adaam's Noivern, a huge threat that could outspeed a +1 Incineroar, so I think at this point the match is quite even again. I don't fault Adaam for not going Steelix on the Heavy Slam, as Lilburr has shown she is capable of making the prediction there, this is quite close to a 50/50 in my opinion. This prediction leads into Adaam revenging Copperjah with MMQ, but that takes 22% of it's health off with SR + Life Orb and allows Lilburr to finally reveal Flame Charge Incineroar, which no doubt surprised Adaam.

On turn 55, Adaam is forced to preserve Steelix because MMQ cannot set up on Slowbro yet - Incineroar can take a +1 Play Rough so even if Adaam would need to get to +4 to sweep, so it seemed unlikely he could make it, having to avoid 2 Scald burns plus make a correct prediction on whether to Sneak or Play Rough on Noivern. However, he could get a slightly better version of that on if he sacrifices Steelix on turn 58 because Noivern is now in +2 Shadow Sneak range, but still chooses not to go for this.

Lilburr manages to expertly give up Noivern to get in Incineroar for free and to get a free flame charge as Galarian Slowbro is in range on turn 59. However, she has to avoid the Shell Side Poison and get a roll on Steelix, the roll is unknown to spectators as we don't know Steelix's EVs, only Adaam and possibly Lilburr really knows, but it seems entirely possible based off of previous damage rolls and Body Press rolls Steelix is max defense. Also, only Adaam really knows what his Steelix was at, it showed 40% for spectators but could have been as low as 39.1% I believe based on PS rounding.

If it is the case that Steelix was max defense and he was at 40%, I think both players played exceptionally well at the end, Adaam not taking any false bait to set up MMQ prematurely as I analyzed and simply going for a path where he was slightly favored to win based on the roll + Shell Side Poison + Play Rough crit chance. Ultimately, it worked in favor for Lilburr who could not Close Combat on turn 62 because of the defense drop, and a win is eked out by Incineroar.

I'm not trying to suggest Lilburr got lucky in this game, it's clear that the luck towards the start of the game favored Adaam and even more importantly it seems both of them played very accurately at the end despite potential kneejerk reactions from the audience, myself included, where it looked like MMQ should have swept.


To summarize the game:

Adaam held a slight MU advantage but quickly sacrifices it and doesn't get enough for it, only trading for Sylveon essentially, so Lilburr takes the advantage by turn 16. Both players continue to play excellently and just maintain the balance, which favors Lilburr, but I believe she made a mistep by giving away Zarude which gives Adaam's MMQ an opening. The players do deep calculations at the end to maximize their chances of winning - Lilburr tries to win with Incineroar and Adaam with MMQ.

10/10 game
great post pif !
now that you wrote a great 1817 words analysis of Lilburr (irish) vs Adaam (bad) game for smogon snake draft IV you could maybe write a few words (2 or 3 would be lovely) about the 10 teams that i dropped yesterday in the bushmasters discord !
 
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Adaam

إسمي جف
is a Community Contributoris a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Top Tiering Contributor Alumnusis the 8th Grand Slam Winner
So this game happened last week, I wanted to analyze the play (not the builds). Two notes: I don’t have the pastes of the teams and I’m here primarily to learn not to criticize. I’ll tag the players Adaam and Lilburr if they want to add comments.

The game: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8uu-517658

Adaam's team that I recreated (again, I'm just guessing, either player can correct me if they wish to reveal their team): https://pokepast.es/234c99141cc63585

Lilburr's team that I recreated: https://pokepast.es/f75b5eb2d17b6fbf
View attachment 277543
Okay just starting on match up, it seems both sides don't have significant hazard control (Lilburr is probably running almost pure HDB and Adaam is confirmed only to have a grounded Poison as hazard control) but both sides also don't have Spikes so that's even enough. Importantly, Adaam has huge threats in Obstagoon and MMQ which Lilburr does not have good responses to and while Lilburr's team certainly has more staying power, Noivern + Galarian Slowbro + Steelix seems to give Adaam all the bulk he needs. Overall, the match up seems to slightly favor Adaam because of Obstagoon + MMQ posing large threats but you could make a case for Lilburr as well because Slowbro will be very hard to break, Zarude can revenge Adaam's threats, and Incineroar has a surprisingly scary set (Flame Charge).

Lilburr get's a good lead but the Teleport doesn't put much pressure on Adaam because Lilburr's team lacks offensive presence so it seems Adaam could have set up SR very early by going Steelix on turn 2, not that it would help much vs near mono boots, but Adaam didn't know that yet. I don't know why he didn't get SR, it's possible his Steelix set was walled by Noivern so he thought getting SR was hopeless.

Turn 4, we get basically the exact same position as turn 1 except we have more information now, knowing Sylveon is likely boots, Adaam's Noivern is likely not Defog and his Galarian Slowbro is AV. For whatever reason, this causes Lilburr to play differently, Scalding here, which I totally agree with and she get's the burn, which will be helpful later. Since this is essentially the same position as turn 1, Lilburr probably played slightly inaccurately on turn 1 (Scalding was better than Teleporting).

Moving forward, in a risky series of moves, Adaam decides to cash in early and try to get a KO with Obstagoon. This was risky because Zarude could easily have Close Combatted Obstagoon on turn 6 which would give Lilburr a very large advantage, of course only she knows if she has it. You could argue either way that it was worth it for Adaam, but I consider his play here to be poor. The reason is, I argued above he had a MU advantage, there's little reason to cash in like this so early when you have a good Zarude response still (Steelix). Yes he got a Sylveon at the end of the day but he could have tried for more, and it cost him most of his Obstagoon's health.


Lilburr manages to get momentum back by playing accurately culminating in a classic Future Sight + physical attacker combination that Adaam's offense clearly cannot deal with, so Adaam has to give back Obstagoon which really highlights my earlier criticism. If I'm correct in saying Adaam had a MU advantage (debatable) then clearly he shouldn't have to be essentially trading his arguably top threat (Obstagoon) for Sylveon, he should be able to do better than a trade. Slowbro is also manifesting itself as Lilburr's top defensive threat, but a lucky Poison by Adaam gives him some breathing room around it on turn 16.

At the end of turn 16, I don't think Adaam really has an advantage anymore, even though MMQ is a huge threat, Zarude can pretty easily revenge and everything else on Lilburr's team except Noivern can take a hit at +2. However, Adaam gets a pretty fortunate crit on Slowbro on turn 19 which forces Lilburr to spend more time healing, letting Adaam get in MMQ for completely free on a weakened Slowbro, the ideal situation. Turn 21 is hard for both players and I don't fault Adaam at all for double switching but clearly SD or Shadow Claw would have been better in retrospect as Lilburr Teleports. The other option Lilburr had was to attack (predicting a SD) and then sack something else to revenge MMQ with Zarude - Lilburr cannot really afford to lose Slowbro unless it has Hurricane Noivern since Keldeo almost wins).

Adaam plays well for a few turns starting on turn 22, getting damage on Copperjah so MMQ can kill it at +2 later and getting Rocks at the expense of Lilburr also getting Rocks. But Slowbro presents itself as a huge problem for Adaam now, as his best counter to it on turn 25 is...Keldeo. Adaam gets a fortunate crit which sort of justifies this, keeping Slowbro slightly lower, but it's possible Lilburr could have just tried to abuse Adaam here by staying in on turn 26 by Slacking Off and only then Teleporting on turn 27 on a likely Flip Turn to Galarian Slowbro, which would let Lilburr do major damage with her dark of Choice.

Anyways, the same thing nearly happens again starting turn 28, showing that Lilburr's Slowbro may just win the game if Adaam doesn't find a new strategy. I don't know what to recommend Adaam to do here, but it's pretty clear spamming Surf on Slowbro is only a strategy if you want to deplete it of Slack Offs, which seems basically impossible. The Surf on turn 31 is basically stupid, it's just giving Slowbro a bit more health back on an obvious Slack Off, he could have just flipped right out of there immediately.

Lilburr gets a nice bit of damage on Copperjah on turn 33, likely revealing EVs to both players (but not the spectators), and on turn 34 its clear she has a nice advantage. Adaam is willing to risk the Noivern speed tie which indicates he thinks his position is worse than a coin flip but Lilburr isn't, indicating the reverse.

She continues to play well in my opinion until turn 41, where Lilburr seems impatient and gets Zarude in a little too quickly, costing it a lot of health on the Shell Side Arm and then she sacks it entirely on turn 43, a large error because it makes MMQ much stronger again. Zarude was a huge problem for MMQ not just because it could revenge, but it could also break the Disguise on demand with a faster U-Turn (it was still out of +2 Shadow Sneak range). I understand that weakening Steelix gives Lilburr another path to victory with Incineroar now (her first path is just spamming Slowbro) but it's also giving Adaam a path as well with MMQ. When you have a better position, I don't think you should allow for this type of counterplay and I actually don't think her position is better anymore by the end of turn 43.


I wanted to be critical of Adaam's play after turn 44 because I thought he could have had an opportunity to sacrifice Steelix for a game winning sweep but that opportunity was never clear. For example, if he kept Steelix in on Noivern on turn 44 and got MMQ in for free on turn 45 (not possible but let's assume Lilburr clicked Flames instead on turn 44), then Lilburr just U-Turns to Incineroar which beats MMQ's broken disguise and then Lilburr should have a sizeable advantage with Slowbro still.

Lilburr gets a nice prediction on turn 50, which ends Adaam's Noivern, a huge threat that could outspeed a +1 Incineroar, so I think at this point the match is quite even again. I don't fault Adaam for not going Steelix on the Heavy Slam, as Lilburr has shown she is capable of making the prediction there, this is quite close to a 50/50 in my opinion. This prediction leads into Adaam revenging Copperjah with MMQ, but that takes 22% of it's health off with SR + Life Orb and allows Lilburr to finally reveal Flame Charge Incineroar, which no doubt surprised Adaam.

On turn 55, Adaam is forced to preserve Steelix because MMQ cannot set up on Slowbro yet - Incineroar can take a +1 Play Rough so even if Adaam would need to get to +4 to sweep, so it seemed unlikely he could make it, having to avoid 2 Scald burns plus make a correct prediction on whether to Sneak or Play Rough on Noivern. However, he could get a slightly better version of that on if he sacrifices Steelix on turn 58 because Noivern is now in +2 Shadow Sneak range, but still chooses not to go for this.

Lilburr manages to expertly give up Noivern to get in Incineroar for free and to get a free flame charge as Galarian Slowbro is in range on turn 59. However, she has to avoid the Shell Side Poison and get a roll on Steelix, the roll is unknown to spectators as we don't know Steelix's EVs, only Adaam and possibly Lilburr really knows, but it seems entirely possible based off of previous damage rolls and Body Press rolls Steelix is max defense. Also, only Adaam really knows what his Steelix was at, it showed 40% for spectators but could have been as low as 39.1% I believe based on PS rounding.

If it is the case that Steelix was max defense and he was at 40%, I think both players played exceptionally well at the end, Adaam not taking any false bait to set up MMQ prematurely as I analyzed and simply going for a path where he was slightly favored to win based on the roll + Shell Side Poison + Play Rough crit chance. Ultimately, it worked in favor for Lilburr who could not Close Combat on turn 62 because of the defense drop, and a win is eked out by Incineroar.

I'm not trying to suggest Lilburr got lucky in this game, it's clear that the luck towards the start of the game favored Adaam and even more importantly it seems both of them played very accurately at the end despite potential kneejerk reactions from the audience, myself included, where it looked like MMQ should have swept.


To summarize the game:

Adaam held a slight MU advantage but quickly sacrifices it and doesn't get enough for it, only trading for Sylveon essentially, so Lilburr takes the advantage by turn 16. Both players continue to play excellently and just maintain the balance, which favors Lilburr, but I believe she made a mistep by giving away Zarude which gives Adaam's MMQ an opening. The players do deep calculations at the end to maximize their chances of winning - Lilburr tries to win with Incineroar and Adaam with MMQ.

10/10 game
This is an excellent post that highlights the good and rushed plays made by us both. The greed with Obstagoon and Zarude set both of us significantly back and led to an endgame that was essentially a 50/50 with the Poison chance + roll + crit chance. For the record, here was the roll with Flame Charge

+2 252 Atk Incineroar Flame Charge vs. 252 HP / 200+ Def Steelix: 134-158 (37.8 - 44.6%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO at 142 hitpoints.

Here is what I was thinking on some of the key turns you mentioned in your post:

  • Turn 1 I don't get rocks because if she Scalds I pretty much lose on the spot to Copper + Zarude. I thought teleport was a bit greedy since I could have used Toxic to cripple Slowbro and open the door to Keldeo, but risking Scald turn 1 was too much for me to take.
  • I agree I did some lame Surfs on Slowbro instead of pivoting out. The goal was to leave it low as it ports but obviously that did not work out at all.
  • I sacked Noivern for Copperajah chip turn 50 because at this point I was unaware of Flame Charge Incineroar, and if she Slammed Noivern, I would get to revenge with MMQ and go up 4-3. I figured Incineroar would revenge and I would get a free Keldeo and press my sack lead but the Flame Charge threw a wrench that plan.
  • With Flame Charge in mind, the only MMQ was ever sweeping is if I got it in on a double on Slowbro. Noivern was never giving me a SD as she just U-Turns into Incineroar and lives +1 Prough. Turn 58 thus did not give me a chance to sweep, as sacking Steelix to Slowbro gives her a near 100% win with Teleport -> Flame Charge -> Knock Off or Scald -> Scald -> Revenge with Incin if I attacked at +2/Stall out MMQ via Life Orb with Slowbro/Vern if I used Swords Dance twice
Great overall analysis and I hope we get to see more posts like this for other games
 
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Week 4 Snake

Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Noivern            |    7 |  70.00% |  42.86% |
| 2    | Zarude             |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Slowbro            |    4 |  40.00% |  25.00% |
| 4    | Keldeo             |    3 |  30.00% | 100.00% |
| 4    | Weezing-Galar      |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 4    | Copperajah         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 4    | Rotom-Wash         |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 4    | Terrakion          |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 9    | Sylveon            |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 9    | Krookodile         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Roserade           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Doublade           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Talonflame         |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 9    | Cobalion           |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Chandelure         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Slowking           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Rotom-Mow          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Obstagoon          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Rhyperior          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Escavalier         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Slowbro-Galar      |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Tangela            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Incineroar         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Seismitoad         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Mamoswine          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Lycanroc-Dusk      |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Pangoro            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Steelix            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Dragalge           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Marowak-Alola      |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Ribombee           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Like the previous week those Pokemon have been used quite a lot. Not gonna repeat what I already said in my last 2 posts. If you're building in Underused, be sure to be able to handle those offensive/defensive threats.


Fighting-types seems to be on the rise this week and represent 15% of all the Pokemon which have been played. Both Keldeo and Terrakion have been used three times. It's also worth mentionning that every Terrakion which have been used were LO variant. This set is pretty good atm because it's able to pressure common defensive cores by being able to hit hard while still having some versatility. While no one really reveal Megahorn this week, it's important to highlight that this move gains in popularity by being able to bypass with ease Slowbro (or Tangela to a lesser extent). On the other side, all Keldeo this week were running Flip Turn.
 

pokemonisfun

Banned deucer.
Analysis of Sabella vs Adaam for week 4 of Smogon Snake Draft (game analysis only, no major comments on the builds). I know this is tl;dr for 95%+ of UU users, honestly this is for as much as my personal benefit as well as for some others who take this game (too) seriously.

Game replay here: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8uu-519273

Adaam's team here: https://pokepast.es/494da0403d8b6bf4

Sabella's team here (recreated Sabella can drop your team if you want, this will almost certainly not be exactly the same as what Sabella used, I just wanted to give you an idea, a big question is whether Gastrodon has Ice Beam over Scald and how fast Marowak is): https://pokepast.es/98c8811fb66e9ca0

Right off the bat it looks to me like Adaam has a small match up (MU) advantage because Sylveon has no good switch in except the easily chippable Marowak and Seismitoad will be hard to kill with a Choiced Zarude. While Sabella's Marowak may be able to get a KO almost everytime it comes in on Sylveon, the fact that Adaam seems to have creeped just enough for it (his Seismitoad outspeeds Adamant 252 Marowak by 1 point) makes me think Adaam should be slightly favored, although keep in mind I don't know if Sabella is running Jolly Marowak. Also, while Noivern is somewhat hard for Booty to deal with, if his Gastrodon is Ice Beam, that could go a long way in getting surprise KOs or big chip on Roserade and Noivern.

Turn 1 starts with Noivern vs Cobalion so Adaam keeps an advantage and goes for some momentum via U-Turn which reveals Sabella's switch in, Gastrodon, is likely HDB. Adaam is threatening to get a huge advantage with hazards so Sabella has to stop the hazards and goes for a Noivern sequence that pays off on turn 6, managing to get damage off on Seismitoad and still get hazards off at just the cost of HDB. I think it's pretty clear Adaam should have Toxic'd the Noivern on turn 6, at least in retrospect it's better since it's guaranteed to chip at Noivern for the whole game, while Knock off has no such gurantee since it's not clear Seismitoad can keep hazards vs Noivern. Some Hurricane hax means SR is off and Noivern remains healthy but by turn 8 the other shoe finally drops and Sylveon gets to come in for free.

Since Adaam doesn't have a Marowak switch in and Sabella only has one comfortable Sylveon counter, the double switch is pretty crucial on turn 9 for Adaam to keep an advantage and stop Marowak from getting an opening. It's followed by a series of extremely nice predictions by Adaam which still doesn't net him any kills, but badly weakens Cobalion making everything on Adaam's team more dangerous, e.g., Cobalion now is in range of Roserade's Leaf Storm and Sylveon's Hyper Voice.


1601524553964.png


Turn 13 is pretty important because Sabella has a choice - does he try and get SR off now or not? At this point, Sabella doesn't know if Adaam has Toxic yet and if he agrees with my earlier analysis, he actually should think Adaam doesn't have Toxic because I argued earlier Adaam should have used Toxic on turn 6 if he has it (he does). Since Adaam does have Toxic, Sabella would have been in a very bad spot if his Noivern got Toxiced and couldn't keep off Rocks which is what would have likely happened if he went Noivern instead of Ribombee (however, 30% shot for a Scald burn to actually help Sabella). The reason why Sabella needs SR off so badly is because the entire balance of the game is almost resting on Marowak's shoulders, it will likely need to repeatedly switch into Sylveon and maybe even Roserade since Cobalion is weak now so it absolutely will want SR off. That's why I'm suggesting Noivern on turn 13 would have been better given the information he had, but the way it worked out (Adaam actually having Toxic), means Sabella's play is actually better in practice.

Turn 14 is a mysterious Sticky Web set up, not exactly sure how it benefits Sabella unless Marowak is Flame Charge or Jolly (both of which are entirely possible so I actually probably should have put one of those in the paste). Other than that since Zarude is Scarf, the webs might help make Marowak faster than Seismitoad but Sabella could have just went for Moonblast to 2HKO at that point or Moonblast + set up SW on the predicted switch. I understand that means Sabella would have needed to make a prediction, but his situation is already very unpleasant.

After that sequence ends, Noivern comes in on turn 16 and again, SR is a showing itself to be a huge thorn in Sabella's side. Psychologically, you don't really want to Defog on turn 16 because that's admitting you made a mistake by setting up webs and frankly Roost is respectable since Sabella needs Noivern healthy as that can beat Adaam's team if weakened and if Sylveon is gone (which isn't impossible to do since Sylveon doesn't have Wish). Still, I think getting the rocks off are too important simply because of how necessary Marowak is.

The big "reveal" of the game is on turn 17, when Sylveon surprises Sabella by setting up a free sub on Gastrodon - excellently done by Adaam but also to be fair, easily done, as it would have been okay vs Marowak too. Calm Mind on turn 18 is reasonable to set up a 2HKO on Gastrodon but if Adaam knew Sabella was Earth Power, he probably should have just Hyper Voiced turn 18 since Gastrodon needs EQ to break the substitute anyways. That said, its this surprise of a set that finally forces Sabella to part with a Pokemon, him choosing Cobalion, which makes sense since he was already low (poor Cobalion, being sacrificed to deal first with Adaam's Close Combat prediction and then a surprise set).

The momentum however, shifts right after this and Marowak gets his own kill and Adaam finally begins to take his foot off the gas pedal. He feels his advantage is big enough he doesn't need to predict on turn 21 and is likely playing super safe turn 22, avoiding any double switches / not deciding to decide to SD and kill Gastrodon. It seems reasonable since he has a nice advantage already and the U-Turn means all he does is get a bit of extra chip on Gastrodon and a free switch in to Roserade which he makes the most of and nearly kills Noivern on turn 24, which would have been nearly game - as it is, it was likely better than a coin flip to kill Noivern given the roll + poison chance + crit chance.

I'm not exactly sure what turn 26 is about for Sabella. Roost only makes sense if he predicts a switch out but Hyper Voice by Adaam was very free. I understand Sabella probably wanted to go for Confusion hax but he needed at least 2 hits for this to work well since he has no Sylveon switch in still except Marowak but that's quickly dying because of SR. I suggest Hurricane instead on turn 26 because if you're going for hax anyways, it doesn't really matter if you Roost then Hurricane or Hurricane then Roost. However, Hurricaning immediately at least 70% guarantees some more damage on Sylveon.

Turn 27 Adaam spends some time and decide to sacrifice Terrakion. Frankly it's not easy at all to decide who to sacrifice but I imagine the main two contendors are Doublade or Terrakion. You don't want to give up Sylveon since Sylveon almost autowins by itself or gets at least 1.5 more KOs if Marowak dies, which is going to happen quickly with SR. You don't want to give up Doublade since that can almost win by itself especially if Gatsrodon is EQ over Epower (it isn't but Adaam doesn't know that yet). You don't want to give up Noivern because it's insurance versus everything except Ribombee and makes Adaam feel very safe in his position (which will come back to haunt him). You don't want to give up Roserade since it's the only thing that beats Gatstrodon for sure (Sylveon should too but it may be unable to now because Gastrodon can outspeed with webs and Toxic). Terrakion simply beats the least stuff so Adaam sacrificed it. Doublade might have been considered as well since Gastrodon could have been a fairly hard stop to it but the ability for it to win nicely by itself is a little too tantalizing.


1601524609030.png


Sabella takes the KO here and then immediately plays excellently with predictions galore to more or less take away much of theadvantage from Adaam which pretty much culminates on turn 31 with Adaam making what I believe to be an inferior move with Flamethrower - U-Turn would have just did 10% less damage to Zarude but also gets in Sylveon for free so Sylveon can basically get a free KO, giving Adaam an advantage still. However, Sabella manages to eat away more at Adaam's advantage with an excellent double switch on turn 32,to give Marowak another chance to get a KO. It's possible Adaam might have missed a "safe" move to go Doublade on turn 32, which would have stopped any double but also Doublade technically can counter Zarude once still as Darkest Lariat doesn't 2HKO so Sabella would have been forced to go Gastrodon, a much less scary Pokemon than Marowak.

Sabella himself now takes his foot off the gas pedal on turn 34 and either hopes Adaam overpredicts or just can't make the prediction himself to go to Ribombee on a Draco Meteor, instead finally giving up Marowak. If he managed to preserved Marowak again as a sac at least, I think Sabella would have managed to miraculously produce an advantage. However, it's easy to think Marowak's job was done though as Sylveon is now gone, giving Sabella a new path to victory, Darkest Lariat Zarude to beat Roserade + Gastrodon to beat Doublade. As much as Adaam would love to go Roserade to claim a kill on turn 36, he cannot really afford to do that since Sabella could just get damage off on Rose by sacrificing Zarude and then bring in Ribombee, forcing Adaam to make at least 2 50-50 predictions and hit a Leaf Storm on Gastrodon.

Adaam does the much more sensible thing on turn 36 to go Doublade and its not easy to suggest anything to Sabella at this point, he might at this point have to rely on Leaf Storm missing at some point or Darkest Lariat crit on Roserade. I imagine he probably should have had better odds than hoping for 2 Leaf Storm misses at the end which the players discuss but the very nice find by Adaam using Spikes on turn 38 puts Zarude in Doublade's Shadow Sneak range. Perhaps a double on turn 37 to Zarude and hope for a Darkest Lariat crit at least gives better odds, but again, Adaam is clearly the one to be favored here.


1601524732922.png


To summarize the game: Adaam had a small MU advantage as he generally had more threats but Sabella had the biggest threat of all in Marowak. Both players had extremely powerful moments, Adaam starting off very strong by using Terrakion Close Combat on a Marowak, correctly predicting a Cobalion switch and Sabella near the end starting turn 27 almost rallying a game where people in the SmogTour chat tried to wrongly write him off (me included). Sabella's late game rally combined with a crucial mistep on turn 31 by Adaam gave Sabella a fighting chance to overcome the MU and poor start, but Adaam ultimately found a nice way to neutralize Sabella's threats.

I hope neither player takes offense, both should feel free to add comments to justify anything they did in the game. I'll try to analyze at least 1 win by everyone when they get the win we all know this pool is capable of doing to each other.
 

Sabella

formerly Booty
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Analysis of Sabella vs Adaam for week 4 of Smogon Snake Draft (game analysis only, no major comments on the builds). I know this is tl;dr for 95%+ of UU users, honestly this is for as much as my personal benefit as well as for some others who take this game (too) seriously.

Game replay here: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8uu-519273

Adaam's team here: https://pokepast.es/494da0403d8b6bf4

Sabella's team here (recreated Sabella can drop your team if you want, this will almost certainly not be exactly the same as what Sabella used, I just wanted to give you an idea, a big question is whether Gastrodon has Ice Beam over Scald and how fast Marowak is): https://pokepast.es/98c8811fb66e9ca0

Right off the bat it looks to me like Adaam has a small match up (MU) advantage because Sylveon has no good switch in except the easily chippable Marowak and Seismitoad will be hard to kill with a Choiced Zarude. While Sabella's Marowak may be able to get a KO almost everytime it comes in on Sylveon, the fact that Adaam seems to have creeped just enough for it (his Seismitoad outspeeds Adamant 252 Marowak by 1 point) makes me think Adaam should be slightly favored, although keep in mind I don't know if Sabella is running Jolly Marowak. Also, while Noivern is somewhat hard for Booty to deal with, if his Gastrodon is Ice Beam, that could go a long way in getting surprise KOs or big chip on Roserade and Noivern.

Turn 1 starts with Noivern vs Cobalion so Adaam keeps an advantage and goes for some momentum via U-Turn which reveals Sabella's switch in, Gastrodon, is likely HDB. Adaam is threatening to get a huge advantage with hazards so Sabella has to stop the hazards and goes for a Noivern sequence that pays off on turn 6, managing to get damage off on Seismitoad and still get hazards off at just the cost of HDB. I think it's pretty clear Adaam should have Toxic'd the Noivern on turn 6, at least in retrospect it's better since it's guaranteed to chip at Noivern for the whole game, while Knock off has no such gurantee since it's not clear Seismitoad can keep hazards vs Noivern. Some Hurricane hax means SR is off and Noivern remains healthy but by turn 8 the other shoe finally drops and Sylveon gets to come in for free.

Since Adaam doesn't have a Marowak switch in and Sabella only has one comfortable Sylveon counter, the double switch is pretty crucial on turn 9 for Adaam to keep an advantage and stop Marowak from getting an opening. It's followed by a series of extremely nice predictions by Adaam which still doesn't net him any kills, but badly weakens Cobalion making everything on Adaam's team more dangerous, e.g., Cobalion now is in range of Roserade's Leaf Storm and Sylveon's Hyper Voice.


View attachment 279336

Turn 13 is pretty important because Sabella has a choice - does he try and get SR off now or not? At this point, Sabella doesn't know if Adaam has Toxic yet and if he agrees with my earlier analysis, he actually should think Adaam doesn't have Toxic because I argued earlier Adaam should have used Toxic on turn 6 if he has it (he does). Since Adaam does have Toxic, Sabella would have been in a very bad spot if his Noivern got Toxiced and couldn't keep off Rocks which is what would have likely happened if he went Noivern instead of Ribombee (however, 30% shot for a Scald burn to actually help Sabella). The reason why Sabella needs SR off so badly is because the entire balance of the game is almost resting on Marowak's shoulders, it will likely need to repeatedly switch into Sylveon and maybe even Roserade since Cobalion is weak now so it absolutely will want SR off. That's why I'm suggesting Noivern on turn 13 would have been better given the information he had, but the way it worked out (Adaam actually having Toxic), means Sabella's play is actually better in practice.

Turn 14 is a mysterious Sticky Web set up, not exactly sure how it benefits Sabella unless Marowak is Flame Charge or Jolly (both of which are entirely possible so I actually probably should have put one of those in the paste). Other than that since Zarude is Scarf, the webs might help make Marowak faster than Seismitoad but Sabella could have just went for Moonblast to 2HKO at that point or Moonblast + set up SW on the predicted switch. I understand that means Sabella would have needed to make a prediction, but his situation is already very unpleasant.

After that sequence ends, Noivern comes in on turn 16 and again, SR is a showing itself to be a huge thorn in Sabella's side. Psychologically, you don't really want to Defog on turn 16 because that's admitting you made a mistake by setting up webs and frankly Roost is respectable since Sabella needs Noivern healthy as that can beat Adaam's team if weakened and if Sylveon is gone (which isn't impossible to do since Sylveon doesn't have Wish). Still, I think getting the rocks off are too important simply because of how necessary Marowak is.

The big "reveal" of the game is on turn 17, when Sylveon surprises Sabella by setting up a free sub on Gastrodon - excellently done by Adaam but also to be fair, easily done, as it would have been okay vs Marowak too. Calm Mind on turn 18 is reasonable to set up a 2HKO on Gastrodon but if Adaam knew Sabella was Earth Power, he probably should have just Hyper Voiced turn 18 since Gastrodon needs EQ to break the substitute anyways. That said, its this surprise of a set that finally forces Sabella to part with a Pokemon, him choosing Cobalion, which makes sense since he was already low (poor Cobalion, being sacrificed to deal first with Adaam's Close Combat prediction and then a surprise set).

The momentum however, shifts right after this and Marowak gets his own kill and Adaam finally begins to take his foot off the gas pedal. He feels his advantage is big enough he doesn't need to predict on turn 21 and is likely playing super safe turn 22, avoiding any double switches / not deciding to decide to SD and kill Gastrodon. It seems reasonable since he has a nice advantage already and the U-Turn means all he does is get a bit of extra chip on Gastrodon and a free switch in to Roserade which he makes the most of and nearly kills Noivern on turn 24, which would have been nearly game - as it is, it was likely better than a coin flip to kill Noivern given the roll + poison chance + crit chance.

I'm not exactly sure what turn 26 is about for Sabella. Roost only makes sense if he predicts a switch out but Hyper Voice by Adaam was very free. I understand Sabella probably wanted to go for Confusion hax but he needed at least 2 hits for this to work well since he has no Sylveon switch in still except Marowak but that's quickly dying because of SR. I suggest Hurricane instead on turn 26 because if you're going for hax anyways, it doesn't really matter if you Roost then Hurricane or Hurricane then Roost. However, Hurricaning immediately at least 70% guarantees some more damage on Sylveon.

Turn 27 Adaam spends some time and decide to sacrifice Terrakion. Frankly it's not easy at all to decide who to sacrifice but I imagine the main two contendors are Doublade or Terrakion. You don't want to give up Sylveon since Sylveon almost autowins by itself or gets at least 1.5 more KOs if Marowak dies, which is going to happen quickly with SR. You don't want to give up Doublade since that can almost win by itself especially if Gatsrodon is EQ over Epower (it isn't but Adaam doesn't know that yet). You don't want to give up Noivern because it's insurance versus everything except Ribombee and makes Adaam feel very safe in his position (which will come back to haunt him). You don't want to give up Roserade since it's the only thing that beats Gatstrodon for sure (Sylveon should too but it may be unable to now because Gastrodon can outspeed with webs and Toxic). Terrakion simply beats the least stuff so Adaam sacrificed it. Doublade might have been considered as well since Gastrodon could have been a fairly hard stop to it but the ability for it to win nicely by itself is a little too tantalizing.


View attachment 279337

Sabella takes the KO here and then immediately plays excellently with predictions galore to more or less take away much of theadvantage from Adaam which pretty much culminates on turn 31 with Adaam making what I believe to be an inferior move with Flamethrower - U-Turn would have just did 10% less damage to Zarude but also gets in Sylveon for free so Sylveon can basically get a free KO, giving Adaam an advantage still. However, Sabella manages to eat away more at Adaam's advantage with an excellent double switch on turn 32,to give Marowak another chance to get a KO. It's possible Adaam might have missed a "safe" move to go Doublade on turn 32, which would have stopped any double but also Doublade technically can counter Zarude once still as Darkest Lariat doesn't 2HKO so Sabella would have been forced to go Gastrodon, a much less scary Pokemon than Marowak.

Sabella himself now takes his foot off the gas pedal on turn 34 and either hopes Adaam overpredicts or just can't make the prediction himself to go to Ribombee on a Draco Meteor, instead finally giving up Marowak. If he managed to preserved Marowak again as a sac at least, I think Sabella would have managed to miraculously produce an advantage. However, it's easy to think Marowak's job was done though as Sylveon is now gone, giving Sabella a new path to victory, Darkest Lariat Zarude to beat Roserade + Gastrodon to beat Doublade. As much as Adaam would love to go Roserade to claim a kill on turn 36, he cannot really afford to do that since Sabella could just get damage off on Rose by sacrificing Zarude and then bring in Ribombee, forcing Adaam to make at least 2 50-50 predictions and hit a Leaf Storm on Gastrodon.

Adaam does the much more sensible thing on turn 36 to go Doublade and its not easy to suggest anything to Sabella at this point, he might at this point have to rely on Leaf Storm missing at some point or Darkest Lariat crit on Roserade. I imagine he probably should have had better odds than hoping for 2 Leaf Storm misses at the end which the players discuss but the very nice find by Adaam using Spikes on turn 38 puts Zarude in Doublade's Shadow Sneak range. Perhaps a double on turn 37 to Zarude and hope for a Darkest Lariat crit at least gives better odds, but again, Adaam is clearly the one to be favored here.


View attachment 279338

To summarize the game: Adaam had a small MU advantage as he generally had more threats but Sabella had the biggest threat of all in Marowak. Both players had extremely powerful moments, Adaam starting off very strong by using Terrakion Close Combat on a Marowak, correctly predicting a Cobalion switch and Sabella near the end starting turn 27 almost rallying a game where people in the SmogTour chat tried to wrongly write him off (me included). Sabella's late game rally combined with a crucial mistep on turn 31 by Adaam gave Sabella a fighting chance to overcome the MU and poor start, but Adaam ultimately found a nice way to neutralize Sabella's threats.

I hope neither player takes offense, both should feel free to add comments to justify anything they did in the game. I'll try to analyze at least 1 win by everyone when they get the win we all know this pool is capable of doing to each other.
Cool analysis. I was adamant on wak and my set was actually polter/sub/flare blitz/focus punch. The coba was max hp > max attack as well and the gastro set you had right =D

Just to point out I read the analysis and if i was jolly marowak i would have not sacked in turn 34. At that point i could only use it as a sac it didnt do anything more and i didnt want to risk bee there for that. If jolly i 100% would have went hard bee again because i can outspeed roserade and claim one more kill if i position properly.
 
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Lily

wouldn't that be fine, dear
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UU Leader
2/4 last week, 4/8 altogether. late predicts let's go

:thundurus-therian: CBU vs SoulWind :tapu fini:
Close one without a doubt, CBU's looked a ton better since his game vs Poek, seems he finally struck his groove. SW also looked like a headless chicken vs a classic pif stall that week. However, SW played an impressive gave vs Poek last week himself, while CBU farmed yours truly with an Obstagoon. I'm still not high on the teams SW has been using, but I don't know if CBU's own builds will be up to the task of creating a significant MU advantage, and SW has the playing advantage for sure. Should be a good game but I'm giving it to SW this week.

---

:arbok: Lilburr vs Sabella :steelix:
Playing within like, an hour of making this post. Hf booty!

---

:rayquaza: Poek vs hs :gyarados:
Both of these players bring really cool stuff and have the playing capacity to take advantage of it - speaking of advantages, I think hs will 100% have the matchup advantage this game. I still trust Poek to outplay whatever random unviable mon he's never heard of is thrown at him, so I think he'll scrape together another win this week. hs could surprise me but idts.

---

:zygarde: Adaam vs Askov :giratina-origin:
I will probably bold Adaam against every single person in this pool even if he loses every game from here on out. Askov's really good and the combination of his playing + viv's teams is looking like a winning formula for the Serpents, but I consider Adaam to be in another bracket as far as UU stuff goes. This is probably the closest game of the week for me, but I trust Adaam to bring a trusty combination of 5 wallbreakers + fat Noivern and get the win vs a crafty offense viv will concoct for Askov.

---

:serperior: Ramolost vs Accelgor :milotic:
Tough one. Ramo's looked surprisingly great, being a bright spot for the Bushmasters and being a formidalbe UU starter in his own right. Taking down an impressive host of names is a bonus, and it looks like pif's support is paying off greatly alongside Ramo's volatile playstyle. Accel represents consistency to me, though. It's going to take a bit more than some good turns to take him down, and he's shown that he hasn't missed a beat after quitting for a grand total of 15 minutes. This one can 100% go either way and if I were going with the hot hand, I'd take Ramo, but I can't bring myself to bold against Accel yet even after his loss to Askov.

---

Sorta rushed this week but oh well. Best of luck to everyone, hope to see some more great games this week!
 

avarice

greedy for love
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Week 5 Snake

Leads | Combos | Moves&Teammates
Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Slowbro-Galar      |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 1    | Cobalion           |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 3    | Noivern            |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Incineroar         |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Zarude             |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Sylveon            |    3 |  30.00% | 100.00% |
| 6    | Rotom-Mow          |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 6    | Weezing-Galar      |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 6    | Doublade           |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 10   | Porygon-Z          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Mamoswine          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Terrakion          |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Barbaracle         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Cloyster           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Grimmsnarl         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Mimikyu            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Krookodile         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Keldeo             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Starmie            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Talonflame         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Slowking           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Klefki             |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Umbreon            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Rotom-Wash         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Bewear             |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Quagsire           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Seismitoad         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Copperajah         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Ribombee           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Tentacruel         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Slowbro            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Highlights
:slowbro-galar:
This mon has had a surge in usage and has shown how it can be a valuable glue to a team with multiple options. The AV and less common Calm Mind sets have been standard but the Nasty Plot set that has seen a good amount of use during Majors had a chance to shine in HS vs Poek. While pretty cheesy having the Quick Draw + Quick Claw element, slowbro-galar's natural bulk especially when boosted with screens support has made it quite the threat. Without Lycanroc-Dusk, such Hyper Offense builds certainly have more breathing room. There is also the general lower risk for running a pokemon like Ribombee, like Lilburr did. Though it should be noted, with Necrozma back in the tier Slowbro-Galar could easily see a drop in usage by next week.

:zarude: :cobalion:
These two were seen together a fair amount. They both have valuable resistances to pair with their usual utility and I doubt this core goes away even with shifts. Cobalion especially has a solid amount of options with extra coverage and pivoting with Volt Switch. Their common weakness in Fire and Fighting are easily covered with the rest of the tier having a good amount of Psychics and Waters to choose from. Naturally being frequent glue mons you can see a rise in pokemon like Mamoswine that are already difficult to switch into-- such as Askov vs Adaam where both sides had those 3 mons and supported them in different ways.

:sylveon:
Both of sides of Sylveon (offensive and supportive) were shown off during Lilburr vs Sabella and Soulwind vs CBU this week. I find this mon to be a pretty nice breaker and expect to see it to see more use in future week simply because of how hard it can be to play around and of course the traditional Wish support will likely remain reliable. Sabella was able to take advantage of Mystical Fire on defensive Sylveon excellently as it prevented Lilburr from breaking past it with Slowbro-Galar. Meanwhile, Calm Mind from Soulwind was able to demolish a good portion of CBU's team until Zarude could clean up.
 

Adaam

إسمي جف
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The rise of Glowbro is pretty surprising, but a natural consequence of Sylveon's dominance. With Jirachi's ban, Sylveon has slowly been reclaiming its spot as (imo) a top 3 Pokemon, behind Slowbro and Noivern. It was brought only 3 times this week, but won all its games and played a significant role in all its wins. Since our Steel-types either have no Spdef, are outsped, or don't even resist Fairy, players have been turning to Glowbro to check the Sylveon checkbox. You'll notice it is often paired with one of those shakier Steel-types like Cobalion or Doublade for that reason. I don't expect its usage to stay this high, but its cemented itself as a great Pokemon in UU.

On the contrary, Zarude's usage has steadily declining since it was used on 7/10 teams in one week. Players are starting to realize, despite it "checking" a large amount of Pokemon in theory, in practice it ends up being nothing more than a U-Turn bot. Clicking any STAB often leads to massive loss of momentum, so it never has any tangible impact on a game unless your opponent constantly switches out. Here is a million Snake replays proving my point:

hs vs Soulwind - Soulwind clicks 7 moves with Zarude. 5 of them were U-Turn, the other 2 times he lost huge momentum that gave hs the openings he needed to win.
Me vs Askov - I try to Throat Chop a Tentacruel and lose momentum as his own Zarude comes in to....click U-Turn. Shocker
Soulwind vs Poek - Poek stays in twice with Rotom-W on Zarude because he realizes this mon is dogshit and only clicks U-Turn. He was right.
Me vs CBU - Zarude forces out Reuniclus to click the mighty U-Turn, but Tangela eats any hit from it.

It's an okay mon that got overhyped initially. Countering Slowbro is cool, but without a damage boosting item it fails to OHKO, and clicking Power Whip is never ever going to be free when Noivern, Cobalion, and Weezing are everywhere.
 

avarice

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Week 6

Leads | Combos | Moves&Teammates
Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Noivern            |    6 |  60.00% |  66.67% |
| 2    | Necrozma           |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 3    | Incineroar         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 3    | Cobalion           |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 3    | Zarude             |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 6    | Salazzle           |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 6    | Reuniclus          |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 6    | Terrakion          |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 6    | Polteageist        |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Slowbro-Galar      |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Rotom-Wash         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Palossand          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 13   | Seismitoad         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Klefki             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Grimmsnarl         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Linoone            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Doublade           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Krookodile         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Chandelure         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Chansey            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Weezing-Galar      |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Ribombee           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Bisharp            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Tsareena           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Mamoswine          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Tentacruel         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Sylveon            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Copperajah         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Torkoal            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Slowbro            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Shiftry            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Charizard          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Dragalge           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Mienshao           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Mimikyu            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Sharpedo           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Barbaracle         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Highlights
:slowbro::necrozma: :slowbro-galar:
There was a significant drop in Slowbro this week with the basic Cobalion Zarude team structure. Its single use was in Poek vs Accelgor where it worked as support with Thunder Wave. Necrozma is an incredible threat that we just got back. Naturally, it saw a high amount of usage, but in its games it did not get to really shine. Though, its presence can be felt with the huge drop in galarian slowbro use.

:noivern:
The bat remains a great glue with its speed and decent power. It was used on the majority of the teams and kept a positive win rate. With Rhyperior leaving, Noivern surely will stay great as one of the best mons in the tier.

:salazzle:
A nice mon that saw some more usage. It and Talonflame stand out as mons that had a lot to gain with Rhyperior's departure and I think they will see more use before DLC 2 hits. They both have a good amount of options. Salazzle can run Nasty Plot, Corrosive Toxic Stall, or double status Toxic + Thunder Wave support. Talonflame can run SD, BU, or defensive all easier too.

e: w7 mus
1602475275725.png
 
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Lily

wouldn't that be fine, dear
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UU Leader
While it only had one use this week and lost, one Pokemon that's been showing up all snake is Sylveon:


Code:
| 6    | Sylveon            |   11 |  22.00% |  72.73% |
This doesn't account for its loss this week, but it's still quite noteworthy. Specs Sylveon has absolutely no perfect long-term counterplay, and I think that's something that should be taken advantage of more. It's a terrifying presence especially for Cobalion teams, which typically have frailer Fairy resists (with the exception of AV Gbro) in Roserade and Galarian Weezing.

---

Another Pokemon with a great winrate that I'm personally a very big fan of is Incineroar.


Code:
| 10   | Incineroar         |   10 |  20.00% |  70.00% |
Doesn't include its 3 uses this week, 2 of which were wins.
I think SD Flame Charge Incineroar is one of the best Pokemon in the tier, and this only furthers my belief. Pivot sets are also excellent but I think SD is the best for sure. There's not really a lot of counterplay for a +2/+1 Incineroar - it does struggle with like, Galarian Weezing and cleric Sylveon, but those aren't the hardest things in the world to deal with and they don't want to take a Knock Off anyway. It fell off for a while, but the cat seems to be coming back in full swing thanks to its complete lack of "do-nothing" matchups.

---

Anyway, on to the predictions (I got 3/4 last week in the UU discord and 4/4 the week before on this thread, so 11/16 altogether!)

---

:thundurus-therian: CBU vs hs :gyarados:
hs is coming off a great win vs SoulWind and CBU unfortunately took an L last week to an untimely paralysis, though I think there were definitely better plays that could've been made by both players. I think CBU losing this one is unrealistic, though. He has a lot more outplay potential than hs does, and I don't think the difference in teambuilding quality will be as noticeable here - while hs's teams are really fun to watch and full of creativity, they're noticeable less solid than others. Should be a fun one to watch either way but I can't see CBU losing unless hs pulls up with like DD Whiscash or some shit.

---

:steelix: Sabella vs Askov :giratina-origin:
This is the closest game of the week for me. I think both of these players are pretty close in terms of skill, and the main reason I'm bolding booty here is because of his momentum going into this game - he's finally picking up a few wins, and definitely has the hot hand. Askov is unfortunately coming off two losses in a row, though I don't think they really say anything about his playing ability. I think this one will be decided in the builder, I'm not sure if booty's wacky Gastrodon offenses will be enough to outshine (what I presume is) viv's teambuilding prowess, but something in me says he'll take it.

---

:tapu fini: SoulWind vs Accelgor :milotic:
In a do-or-die week for the Astrotias, I trust clutchmaster Accel to take out SoulWind. His builds have generally been the best out of the UU field in my opinion, and like I've said plenty of times now, SoulWind's have left a lot to be desired. SoulWind has been almost mystically forcing his opponents to choke for some time now, but I can't really see that happening to Accel, who has seemed confident and consistent all season. Obviously not one-sided but I trust Accel to win.

---

:arbok: Lilburr vs pokemonisfun :serperior:
PIF HAS BEEN FREED. We're playing Saturday at roughly 3PM GMT +1. Glhf!

---

:rayquaza: Moutemoute vs Adaam :zygarde:
I will literally never bold against Adaam no matter who the opponent is and this trend continues against an unproven Moutemoute. I'm unsure about why Poek is out of the starting lineup given his performances have been pretty solid, but my best guess is that he just wanted some time off now that the Lindworms are secured in playoffs. I think Moute is a good player with a lot of potential, but Adaam's in another caliber as far as these two go. I can't see him losing, especially if he brings a heinous Galarian Slowbro with a certain item...

Best of luck to all teams who are still looking to qualify for playoffs, gooooo Cobras!!
 
I have a question that I feel relevant to the discussion at hand.

Do any of these replays contain Vileplume play, and if not why should I waste time watching?

EDIT: Just searched through all of them. My day is ruined and my disappointment immeasurable. May your teams run afoul of unchecked Keldo, Rotom, and Escavalier.
 
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avarice

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RoAPL Champion
Week 7

Leads | Combos | Moves & Teammates
Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Noivern            |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 1    | Slowbro-Galar      |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 3    | Keldeo             |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 3    | Cobalion           |    4 |  40.00% |  25.00% |
| 5    | Zarude             |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Rotom-Wash         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Slowbro            |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Mimikyu            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Incineroar         |    3 |  30.00% |   0.00% |
| 10   | Chandelure         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Copperajah         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Barbaracle         |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 10   | Necrozma           |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 10   | Mamoswine          |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Tangela            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Porygon-Z          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Tentacruel         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Golurk             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Talonflame         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Klefki             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Obstagoon          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Sylveon            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Mudsdale           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Bisharp            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Roserade           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Terrakion          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Grimmsnarl         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Weezing-Galar      |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Rotom-Mow          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Sharpedo           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Slowking           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
Highlights

:noivern:
Nothing has started to trend that puts a damper on the Noivern usage. Staying top tier is no surprise. It was used on half of all the teams and retained a positive (60%) win rate. It's strong against all forms of cheese offense. It really shines with Infiltrator in CBU vs hs as it bypasses the screens. It's high speed makes it hard to overwhelm with basic offensive mons not named Ribombee.

:keldeo: :cobalion:
It saw a decent amount of usage this week and while it didn't completely sweep a team, it showed how consistent it could be, having a solid 75% win rate. Cobalion however was the sword of justice that struggled this week. Its faults start to show in Moutemoute vs Adaam where it can't do much against Noivern + Slowbro builds which are far from uncommon.

:necrozma::slowbro-galar: :sylveon:
Interestingly enough, Slowbro-Galar has spiked up again in usage doing the usual CM/AV despite the looming threat of Necrozma. It proved to be strong especially thanks to the lack of Necrozma usage (brought twice and lost). The rise of Slowbro-Galar comes with an odd lack of Sylveon compared to last week. It should be noted that the one Sylveon brought got a W in Lilburr vs Pif where it was able to keep Mudsdale healthy.

:chandelure: :porygon-z:
These niche special nukes got to shine in CBU vs hs and Askov vs Sabella with their raw strength. Both are rather potent right now at smashing through basic balance cores and hopefully get to see more use.

e: w8 mus
1603077400430.png
 
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avarice

greedy for love
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RoAPL Champion
Week 8

Leads | Combos | Moves&Teammates
Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Sylveon            |    5 |  50.00% |  80.00% |
| 1    | Noivern            |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 1    | Slowbro-Galar      |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 1    | Cobalion           |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 5    | Slowbro            |    3 |  30.00% | 100.00% |
| 5    | Weezing-Galar      |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Incineroar         |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 8    | Necrozma           |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 8    | Zarude             |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 8    | Roserade           |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 8    | Chandelure         |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 8    | Mudsdale           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 8    | Chansey            |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 8    | Rotom-Wash         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 8    | Mamoswine          |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Escavalier         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Terrakion          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Grimmsnarl         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Obstagoon          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Umbreon            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Slowking           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Reuniclus          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Froslass           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Salazzle           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Sharpedo           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Starmie            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Pyukumuku          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Flygon             |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Tangela            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
Highlights
:sylveon:
This mon is back on top and had a fucking 80% win rate lmao. A huge leap from when it was basically forgotten the previous week. Sylveon saw use in half of the games this week. Perhaps its most brutal game was when it cleaned up in hs vs Accelgor through CM + SubSalac.

:cobalion: :noivern: :slowbro-galar:
These mons have remained solid tools in UU and its no surprise they were all on half of the teams used. Cobalion and Noivern are very easy to slap onto teams and cover plenty of mons in the meta. Meanwhile, Slowbro-Galar can make for a fine glue mon itself with AV or a wincon with CM. CM in particular stood out in Moute vs Lilburr where both sides used it.

:zarude:
While it has gotten some criticism for just being a u-turn bot, this week the couple times it was used it showed it is still decent as it won in both of the games. Moreso in CBU vs Askov where it prevented Poltergeist from crushing everything.

for w9
1603673603275.png
 
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Week 9 Snake

Leads | Combos | Moves and Teammates
Code:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Noivern            |    6 |  75.00% |  66.67% |
| 2    | Zarude             |    5 |  62.50% |  60.00% |
| 2    | Cobalion           |    5 |  62.50% |  60.00% |
| 4    | Slowbro            |    4 |  50.00% |  75.00% |
| 5    | Mamoswine          |    3 |  37.50% |  66.67% |
| 6    | Doublade           |    2 |  25.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Roserade           |    2 |  25.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Obstagoon          |    2 |  25.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Bisharp            |    2 |  25.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Copperajah         |    2 |  25.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Incineroar         |    2 |  25.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Slowbro-Galar      |    2 |  25.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Chandelure         |    1 |  12.50% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Chansey            |    1 |  12.50% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Necrozma           |    1 |  12.50% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Rotom-Wash         |    1 |  12.50% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Reuniclus          |    1 |  12.50% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Talonflame         |    1 |  12.50% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Rotom-Mow          |    1 |  12.50% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Dragalge           |    1 |  12.50% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Terrakion          |    1 |  12.50% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Sylveon            |    1 |  12.50% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Heliolisk          |    1 |  12.50% |   0.00% |

Highlights


Once again those Pokemon stand-out as premier pick this week by being able to act as great pivot but also support thanks to Defog (Noivern) or Stealth Rock (Cobalion).


Mamoswine is a nice breaker which has shown to be a great vs teams that opt for Slowbro-Galar > Slowbro. Since Slowbro-Galar usages has rose during the last weeks, it's not a surprise to see people trying this big boi to pressure it. Unfortunately, Slowbro has been used way more than Slowbro-Galar this week.


After a couple of weeks at the top of the Snake usages, Slowbro-Galar has not been used a lot this week (only 2 times) and has reach a 0% winrate which is a first time for it. It's interesting to see that people have used more Pokemon to pressure it such as Mamoswine, Obstagoon, Bisharp or Copperajah which acts a a good defensive answer to Slowbro-Galar.

For semifinals

[LIN] Poek vs SoulWind [NAG]
[RAT] CBU vs Lilburr [COB]
 
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