Data Smogon Usage-Based Tier Update: February 2016

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Can we stop predictions that are outside the realm of possiblity and trespassing into guessing just to guess
Like golbat and hariyama
It would be nice to see some metagame knowledge backed up by some of these posts
People get antsy waiting five days into the month for drops so they tend to fantasize. Drops are always pretty conservative and never as wild as people think.
Most of my predictions are based on stats and what little meta knowledge I have outside of UU. Like, I know Vaporeon and Cloyster aren't dropping, but I also know that Haxorus, Honchkrow, and Mandibuzz likely are. The rest I just made educated guesses based on general usage trends.

That being said, some of these are just (seemingly) pretty wild. Don't just say 'something's at 4.1%, it must be dropping soon!'
Hope Vaporeon drops, that thing is shit. Just use Suicune lol.

Also, is it just me or are people over-hyping the shit out of Milotic? I mean, just a few months ago it was a shitmon like Vap, but now it's B+ on the viability rankings. What the hell happened?
Gyarados and other dangerous things dropped, so I'm told. Haze, Dragon Tail, one-turn recovery, burn spreading, etc. Makes it decently effective, though I'm not sure to what degree as compared to other things.
You don't really need to ask this question, Antar has a family to take care of, a baby to raise, and a job he has to do, give him some more time lol.
WHAT!? You mean he doesn't just sit around all day and compile Pokemon usage stats for our personal enjoyment? Dude needs to get his priorities straightened out.

Most obvious sarcasm in the history of fucking ever


Celesteela is Life
I'm gonna be the guy who makes Cacturne rise to UU

Why? Because it's cool and I like it

On a serious note however, GIVE RU MANDIBUZZ

EDIT: Also give NU gastrodon :3
Wait Antar has a kid? When did this happen?

Also I've made my Mandibuzz stall for this month and am well prepared to spread the AIDS joy to other people
Don't blame my real life. Stats are processing SUPER slow this month, and superstaffbros fucked something up fierce. It'll be another few days at least.
It's more than fine, Antar. Take all the time you need to post the stats; gives some extra room for the userbase to theorize rises and drops, if anything.

So as to not make this a one-liner post of sorts, my predictions on RU's potential drops in a nutshell can be read below.
Haxorus - I'm more than certain this thing will at least be suspected. If that absolutely monstrous 147 Attack isn't enough to rip everything ever in RU a new one, it's got a decent base 97 Speed stat and a means to amplify both of those stats in Dragon Dance. It may not have a secondary STAB like Tyrantrum, but Haxorus's Attack and Speed are far higher and it's got a lot more options, including Swords Dance, Double Dance (which sounds especially terrifying) and being better at stuff like Scarf due to its higher Speed. Mold Breaker is the icing on the cake to shut down Levitators, and this brute's coverage allows it to adjust its set to whatever it needs to face. Definitely an extremely threatening drop so far, if it were to happen.
Mandibuzz - Another drop that seems really potent to me, though obviously for different reasons than Haxorus. Mandibuzz possesses some excellent assets as a defensive Pokémon, packing the ever-useful Defog, along with useful tools like Taunt, Roost and Foul Play. Its 110/105/95 defenses are great as well, and Overcoat nicely complements those defenses. It's got a decent typing, too, though not without flaws, and it does kinda look like set-up bait for Mega Steelix. Other than that, looks fun to use as a wall.
Honchkrow - Another offensive brute, this one seems like a mixed force most of all. 125/105 mixed offenses are great, and it's got that Special Attack stat to set itself apart from what seems like a main competitor, Absol. Like Absol, it's got Sucker Punch to bypass its middling Speed stat, base 71 in Honchkrow's case, but it's got a far stronger STAB in Brave Bird that gives it additional coverage, and Moxie is an extremely good late-game Ability, especially for Scarf sets. I can definitely see Honchkrow and Absol competing, as they have similar strengths and weaknesses.
Vaporeon - Meh. Alomomola does WishPass better. Guess it could be a decent-ish offensive Water with Wish, but in regards to bulk, it's also got Blastoise to compete with. Again, meh. Not interested.
heres my take on the uu-to-ru drops:

Haxorus: Getting the Mega Gyarados treatment and getting immediately qbanned
Honchkrow: will maybe stay a few days and will get banned
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