SPL X - Commencement Thread

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Final Calculations for all players with >5 games
@Americans: Just pretend the comma is a dot, so you won't get confused...

Best Performances overall with emphasis on records: Lavos (by far!) Nails Trosko

Best Performances overall with emphasis on opponents win%: Kickasser bugzinator Heroic Troller

Easiest SPL opponents: eden's embrace We Three Kings EviGaro

Hardest SPL opponents: Tamahome Sage Kickasser


Grats to the Ruiners
Sad for the Tyrants

P.S.: I'll try to give a Google Doc for completed SPL 7 to 10 asap
P.P.S.: as per usual not double checked
THX for this awesome seasons @all :)
 
Last edited:

Stratos

formerly Pwnemon
is a Tiering Contributor
For all you power rank afficionados out there, I've been keeping track of how power rank placings correlate to actual placing in SPL and Snake. I've just updated the results for SPLX. And now that I'm unbanned, I can finally post it!

Power Rank.png


So the good news is that the R^2 value got stronger after I entered SPLX into the data set. Our power ranks are getting better at predicting! The bad news is that the slope is negative, which means our power ranks are getting better at predicting the exact opposite of the truth.

Power ranks are a fun event that get everyone hyped, increase the eyes on the tournament, and I think are generally good for the community. But it's nice to statistically confirm what we already intuitively knew, which is that as a prediction tool they are completely useless. I guess the takeaway here is that Finchinator should take heart, because it's not just him; the entire aggregate Smogon community is worse than the ape.
 
With all the data warriors out here, I’m bringing back my favorite post from past SPL: Void 's comparison between Power Rankings and performance.


Hard c/p from last year:
Power Rankings To Final Rankings Comparison Part I: Number Of Wins

Before I start, I'll explain a bit more in detail how this works. I will order the players by their final rankings using the aforementioned criteria (number of wins -> ties broken by superior win percentage), and note their record in the relevant tier. I will then include in round brackets "( )" their pre-season power rank, and in square brackets "[ ]" the number of spots a player has moved up or down with respect to their PR will be denoted. For players who were not included in the power rankings, I will simply put "UR" (unranked) in the round brackets, and "N/A" in the square brackets. Only players who have played 5 games or more (more than half of the regular season) will be included in the final rankings, as including a bunch of players who have subbed in for some games here and there would clutter it up too much. However, after the final ranking for each tier, I will include a couple of things. Others will be a list of players who were included in the PR for that tier (along with their records both in the tier in question and overall), but ended up playing less than 5 games in it. Honorable Mentions will go to anyone who played less than 5 games in a tier, yet still managed to win 3 or more games in it.

So, with all that out of the way, let's get to the good stuff. If you haven't seen it yet, you can first check out the pre-season power rankings for this SPL here If anyone notices any mistakes, please let me know.



1. (UR) Blunder, Tyrants: 7-2 [N/A]
2. (20) Charmflash, Wolfpack: 7-3 [+18]
3. (16) Sabella, Bigs: 6-3 [+13]
4. (5) Empo, Ruiners: 6-4 [+1]
4. (11) Kickasser, Wolfpack: 6-4 [+7]
6. (UR) Hiye, Tyrants: 5-2 [N/A]
6. (1) Bro Fist, Raiders: 5-2 [-5]
8. (4) Eternal Spirit, Tigers: 5-4 [-4]
8. (12) Sacri’, Tigers: 5-4 [+4]
9. (17) Mana, Tyrants: 5-5 [+8]
10. (15) Lopunny Kicks, Scooters: 4-3 [+5]
11. (9) Tricking, Sharks: 3-2 [-2]
11. (UR) Insult, Classiest: 3-2 [N/A]
13. (10) Tamahome, Sharks: 2-3 [-3]
13. (14) 1 True Lycan, Classiest: 2-3 [+1]
15. (13) BHARATH_THEBEST, Cryonicles: 2-6 [-2]
15. (19) Talah, Raiders: 2-6 [+4]
17. (UR) Spectear, Sharks: 1-4 [N/A]
18. (3) Cdumas, Bigs/Scooters: 1-6 [-15]

Others:
ABR
, Cryonicles: ranked 2nd in PR, 0-1 SM OU, 6-3 Overall
craing ;_; (ben gay), Scooters: ranked 6th in PR, 1-2 SM OU, 5-3 Overall
Poek, Tyrants: ranked 7th in PR, 0-3 SM OU, 7-4 Overall
Finchinator, Classiest: ranked 8th in PR, 0-3 SM OU, 4-5 Overall
Imsosorrylol, Ruiners: ranked 18th in PR, 1-2 SM OU, 3-8 Overall

Honorable Mentions:
FMG
, Scooters: Unranked in PR, 4-0 SM OU, 5-0 Overall
ZoroDark, Classiest: Ranked 7th in BW OU, 3-1 SM OU, 4-3 Overall
Valentine, Bigs: Unranked in PR, 3-1 SM OU, 3-2 Overall


1. (2) Emforbes, Tyrants: 7-4, [+1]
2. (3) SMB, Cryonicles: 6-3, [+1]
3. (6) Croven, Ruiners: 6-4, [+3]
4. (7) Ezrael, Bigs: 5-2, [+3]
5. (8) miltankmilk, Scooters: 5-6, [+3]
6. (1) EmbCPT, Classiest: 4-4, [-5]
7. (4) MajorBowman, Tigers: 4-5, [-3]
7. (5) Biosci, Raiders: 4-5, [-2]
9. (9) Human, Wolfpack: 4-6, [=]
10. (10) Fespy, Sharks: 2-7, [=]


1. (5) Christo, Tyrants: 8-2, [+4]
2. (4) robjr, Scooters: 7-3, [+2]
3. (3) Lycans, Sharks: 6-2, [=]
4. (1) Pearl, Ruiners: 6-5, [-3]
5. (8) bugzinator, Wolfpack: 4-2, [+3]
6. (2) Pak, Raiders: 3-4, [-4]
7. (7) HT, Cryonicles: 3-4, [=]
8. (6) Sage, Bigs / Raiders: 2-4, [-2]
8. (UR) Shiba, Classiest: 2-4, [N/A]
10. (10) HarrisIsAwesome, Tigers: 0-5, [=]

Others:
Edi0n, Classiest: ranked 9th in PR, 0-3 SM UU, 0-3 Overall

Honorable Mention:
Adaam
, Tigers: Unranked in PR, 3-1 SM UU, 3-1 Overall


1. (6) aim, Tyrants: 7-2 [+5]
2. (1) Ajna, Cryonicles: 5-3 [-1]
2. (5) EviGaro, Sharks: 5-3 [+3]
4. (2) Nat, Classiest: 5-4 [-2]
4. (8), Welli0u, Wolfpack: 5-4 [+4]
6. (7) Aeroblacktyl, Scooters: 3-2 [+1]
7. (3) Pohjis, Tigers: 3-3 [-4]
8. (UR) passion, Ruiners: 3-6 [N/A]
9. (UR) Kingler12345, Raiders: 2-3 [N/A]
10. (UR) lighthouses, Scooters: 1-4 [N/A]
10. (4) KW, Bigs: 1-4 [-6]

Honorable Mention:
Ultraballz
, Bigs: Unranked in PR, 3-1 SM RU, 3-2 Overall

Others:
RedEmption
, Ruiners: Ranked 9th in PR, 0-2 SM RU, 0-3 Overall
Cynara, Raiders: Ranked 10th in PR, 0-1 SM RU, 1-5 Overall


1. (6) Realistic Waters, Scooters: 7-3 [+5]
2. (2) Lax, Ruiners: 7-4 [=]
3. (7) ict, Tyrants: 6-4 [+4]
4. (10) Garay Oak, Classiest: 5-4 [+6]
5. (3) Kushalos, Bigs: 4-5 [-2]
5. (8) Osh, Tigers: 4-5 [+3]
7. (9) SPACE FORCE meeps, Raiders: 3-4 [+1]
8. (5) elodin, Cryonicles: 3-5 [-3]
9. (4) Eternally, Wolfpack: 3-6 [-5]
10. (1) Teddeh, Sharks: 2-5 [-9]


1. (4) xray, Bigs: 7-2 [+3]
1. (5) Trosko, Raiders: 7-2 [+4]
3. (UR) Poek, Tyrants: 6-1 [N/A]
4. (UR) craing ;-;, Scooters: 4-1 [N/A]
5. (UR) Bro Kappa, Tigers: 3-4 [N/A]
6. (2) TDK, Wolfpack: 2-4 [-4]
6. (7) Baddummy, Classiest: 2-4 [+1]
8. (UR) imsosorrylol, Ruiners: 1-6 [N/A]


Others:
blunder
, Tyrants: Ranked 1st in PR, 2-1 ORAS OU, 9-3 Overall
Hiye, Ruiners: Ranked 3rd in PR, 1-2 ORAS OU, 6-4 Overall
reiku, Tigers: Ranked 6th in PR, 0-2 ORAS OU, 0-2 Overall
znain, Sharks/Tigers: Ranked 8th in PR, 0-2 ORAS OU, 0-2 Overall
leru, Cryonicles: Ranked 9th in PR, 0-2 ORAS OU, 3-5 Overall
Get This Money, Scooters: Ranked 10th in PR, 0-0 ORAS OU, 0-0 Overall


1. (1) SoulWind, Raiders: 6-2 [=]
2. (5) FLCL, Bigs: 6-3 [+3]
2. (6) We Three Kings, Tyrants: 6-3 [+3]
4. (2) Ojama, Scooters: 5-5 [-2]
5. (UR) Finchinator, Classiest: 4-2 [N/A]
6. (UR) Rewer, Ruiners: 3-4 [N/A]
7. (UR) zf, Tigers: 2-3 [N/A]
8. (10) Sergi, Wolfpack: 1-5 [+2]



Others:
dice
, Tigers: Ranked 3rd in PR, 1-3 BW OU, 4-5 Overall
ZoroDark, Classiest: Ranked 7th in PR, 1-2 BW OU, 4-3 Overall
obii, Cryonicles: Ranked 8th in PR, 0-3 BW OU, 2-7 Overall
Luigi, Ruiners: Ranked 9th in PR, 0-2 BW OU, 0-2 Overall

Honorable Mentions:
Posho
, Sharks: ranked 4th in PR, 3-1 BW OU, 3-3 Overall


1. (2) Jimmy Turtwig, Ruiners: 7-4 [+1]
2. (10) GaryTheGengar, Tyrants: 6-5 [+8]
3. (5) Malekith, Cryonicles: 5-4 [+2]
4. (6) DeepBlueC, Wolfpack: 5-5 [+2]
5. (1) roscoe, Raiders: 4-3 [-4]
6. (4) ToF, Sharks: 3-3 [-2]
7. (3) Void, Classiest: 3-5 [-4]
8. (7) soulgazer, Bigs: 2-3 [-1]
9. (8) giara, Scooters: 2-4 [-1]

Others:
6A9 Ace Matador
, Tigers: ranked 9th in PR, 1-2 DPP OU, 1-2 Overall

Honorable mentions:
sig
, Bigs: unranked in PR, 3-1 DPP OU, 3-1 Overall


1. (8) gilbert arenas, Tyrants: 8-3 [+7]
2. (1) thelinearcurve, Classiest: 6-3 [-1]
3. (10) eden's embrace, Ruiners: 4-3 [+7]
4. (5) Golden Sun, Bigs: 4-5 [+1]
5. (9) jirachee, Raiders: 3-3 [+4]
6. (4) dekzeh, Scooters: 3-5 [-2]
7. (2) UD, Wolfpack: 2-8 [-5]
8. (6) Kevin Garrett, Sharks: 1-4 [-2]

Honorable Mentions:
Triangles
, Sharks: Unranked in PR, 4-0 ADV OU, 4-0 Overall
zf, Tigers: Ranked 3rd in PR, 3-1 ADV OU, 5-4 Overall
Alexander., Cryonicles: Ranked 2nd in RBY OU, 3-1 ADV OU, 4-4 Overall

Others:
Veteran In Love
, Cryonicles: ranked 7th in PR, 0-2 ADV OU, 1-4 Overall


1. (1) Lavos, Ruiners: 11-1 [=]
2. (9) d0nut, Tigers: 7-0 [+7]
3. (3) Fear, Wolfpack: 6-2 [=]
4. (8) sulcata, Tyrants: 6-6 [+4]
5. (6) Century Express, Scooters: 4-4 [+1]
6. (4) Conflict, Sharks: 4-5 [-2]
7. (2) Earthworm, Classiest: 2-7 [-5]



Others:
choolio
, Bigs: ranked 5th in PR, 0-3 GSC OU, 0-3 Overall
CasedVictory, Raiders/Bigs: ranked 7th in PR, 0-4 GSC OU, 0-4 Overall
k3nan, Cryonicles/Tigers: ranked 10th in PR, 0-1 GSC OU, 1-4 Overall



Honorable mention
ABR
, Cryonicles: ranked 2nd in SM OU, 3-1 GSC OU, 6-3 Overall


1. (1) Heroic Troller, Tyrants: 8-3 [=]
2. (5) Nails, Bigs: 7-2 [+3]
3. (3) Kaz, Tigers: 6-3 [=]
4. (7) MetalGro$$, Scooters: 6-4 [+3]
5. (10) FriendOfMrGolem120, Ruiners: 6-5 [+5]
6. (4) The Idiot Ninja, Wolfpack: 5-5 [-2]
7. (6) Bedschibaer, Classiest: 4-5 [-1]
8. (8) Sceptross, Sharks: 2-6 [=]



Others:
Alexander
., Cryonicles: ranked 2nd in PR, 1-3 RBY OU, 4-4 Overall
Hipmonlee, Raiders: ranked 9th in PR, 0-3 RBY OU, 0-4 Overall

Some interesting stats to note:
  • The Dragonspiral Tyrants are the team with most players ranked 1st in the final rankings, with 6 players! Even more incredible: except for GSC, they have a top 3 player in every tier. (sulcata's 4th)
  • SM UU and RBY OU were the most predictable tiers this year, with 3 players finishing on their predicted Power Rankings spot.
  • There was some insane juggling this season, most notably in ORAS OU and BW OU. Only 9 of the 20 players from the Power Rankings ended up playing 5 games, despite the fact that everyone except Get This Money played at least 2 games in their tier! That's just one more person than the 8 Unranked players that ended up filling in for 5+ games.
  • None of this juggling in SM NU and SM DOU, where everyone played at least 5 games. Apart from Ezrael, everyone in Doubles played at least 9 games, which is remarkable.
  • By virtue of the Indie Scooters splitting their 10 SM RU games evenly between 2 players, 11 players end up making the 5 game cut!
  • Blunder ended up being the #1 SM OU player, not the #1 ORAS OU player! So close, Power Rankings!
  • While no one made the jump from last to first like last year, still a special shoutout to Charmflash from the Wolfpack and GaryTheGengar from the Tyrants for being the two players who, despite being ranked dead last in their respective tiers in the power rankings, overcame the hate of the vile jerkmen to finish 2nd in the final rankings. You sure showed them.
Finally, a shoutout to Hikari and Ark for making the tour run smoothly and taking care of the beautiful spreadsheet.
 
Last edited:

Kalalokki

back to usual
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Gotta cash in some last few likes before everyone forgets about SPL. Anyway, I had previously posted about some SPL paper trophies I had made and now I have finally been able to print them out in big size. The plan is hopefully to print out enough to be able to send these unfolded to every winner of SPL X, will update more on details further on.

171223


Bigger trophy = more tears to drink

edit: also making trophies for all other tours this year, only 2 for the team tours tho
171429
171432
171433
171436
171438
 
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