Metagame SV OU Metagame Discussion

[Ramplestilskin]

Is there actually any incentive to suspect shed tail ? If we are all being realistic, that is what got Cyclizar to get banned and I personally think that is what makes Espathra really broken. Espathra has very low opportunity to come in any move of any Pokémon in the metagame. Be it a status move or a offensive move (even resisted), Espathra is very frail and quite easy to revenge kill if already hurt a little, and that is where shed tail from a slow orthworm comes in handy as it obviously protects it from status move, salt cure and revenge killing, or even a pokemon that would stand in front of one move and breaks the sub but can not take a second heavily boosted stored power.

Not to say that Espathra would necessarily be OK without shed tail (although that was what people were probably thinking after Cyclizar ban and before realizing orthworm is actually a good support that can easily come on several threats thanks to its immunity) but I have the feeling that being the best set up sweeper in the tier if protected, Espathra is a first revelator of may be a bigger problem with shed tail that will be more and more problematic as time goes on and more set up sweeper will be perfected with the creativity tera allows.

 

[Mikegengsta]

Is there actually any incentive to suspect shed tail ? If we are all being realistic, that is what got Cyclizar to get banned and I personally think that is what makes Espathra really broken. Espathra has very low opportunity to come in any move of any Pokémon in the metagame. Be it a status move or a offensive move (even resisted), Espathra is very frail and quite easy to revenge kill if already hurt a little, and that is where shed tail from a slow orthworm comes in handy as it obviously protects it from status move, salt cure and revenge killing, or even a pokemon that would stand in front of one move and breaks the sub but can not take a second heavily boosted stored power.

Not to say that Espathra would necessarily be OK without shed tail (although that was what people were probably thinking after Cyclizar ban and before realizing orthworm is actually a good support that can easily come on several threats thanks to its immunity) but I have the feeling that being the best set up sweeper in the tier if protected, Espathra is a first revelator of may be a bigger problem with shed tail that will be more and more problematic as time goes on and more set up sweeper will be perfected with the creativity tera allows.

I agree with this. Can we please look into shed tail before looking into emu bird?

 

[Eeveeto]

Espathra is the culprit, not Shed Tail, at least for now. If Shed Tail was the problem, we would have people complaining about Dragonite, Roaring Moon, some weird Great Tusk sets and other set-up Mons. But is Espathra the only Mon that is receiving support for Suspect. Of course, I am biased and don,t want Cyclizar unbanned even without Shed Tail, but the point stands: Espathra is the only set-up sweeper that is receiving significant support for a Ban or Suspect.

 

[1LDK]

Honestly, even tho It's easy to snowball with emu, I think there's a good argument for shed tail ban instead of espatra
because when you think about it, when cyclizar was banned, espatra only went into radar because she was banned from UU, but without support espa was a cheesy all or nothing mon, maybe if we start seeing more orthworms teams with no espatra, with stuff like DDnite, DDmoon, focus punch breloom, Kingambit etc., we can see it through, and even if espatra gets banned, its only a matter of time before homes brings something new. I know complex bans are a no no due to slipery slope and all that stuff, but we might be starting to see a pattern here

I am biased and don,t want Cyclizar unbanned even without Shed Tail

Why? Is it because it's ugly?

 

[Eeveeto]

Why? Is it because it's ugly?

Yes,because its ugly, but also because I don,t want a Mon that fast, with Rapid Spin, Knock Off, U-Turn and Regenerator at the same time in the Meta, especially with all the resistances its typing has. It probably won,t even be that common (and obviously not broken without the move), but it will be the type of Mon that when used against my teams specifically, will annoy me a lot. Him being the best Shed Tail user was a blessing for me and I was very happy when it got banned, after Annihilape, it was the Mon I wanted to see out of the meta the most, neither Chi Yu, nor Chien Pao got that much amount of hate from me.

 

[RoiDadadou]

During my entire run for the Suspect, I've struggled a great lot against Espa, and the easiest matches were... against Shed Tail Orthworm + Espa.
It is SO EASY to deny a Tail from the worm, that the placement of Espa instead becomes predictable.
No, what's scary and annoyingly strong with Espa is that it lives a hit or two, 'cause you play it bulky. You can tank two Pyroballs in a row, with sheer HP/Def Invests. The problem of this Mon is that it WILL get one, if not two most of the time, free turns, thanks to Protect/Tera, or both. Roost amplifies this problem a lot, as it can Roost spam until it kills you, and it will of course cast a CM the first turn of it's Tera, so it stacks up a lot. Currently, the only reliable counters and checks I've been able to use were of course Ting, Gambit sometimes if it's Fairy, and Cinderace if it can't Tera, by Sucker Punching to get the immu, into spamming Pyro Ball to make sure it stays in range.

I don't find the Emu healthy, and going to such length as to say 'Shed Tail mut be banned' is a big thing.

Now I have to admit another thing: Shed Tail's approach will be biased by the wave of the meta coming if Pao gets banned: Moon and Nite are gonna be ten times stronger than they were before, and the Tail might very well make they uncheckable. But that's a discussion of its own, as both of them ill surely be very/too good independently of this move.

 

[awyp]

I want to get a general consensus and see people's opinions on these question:

Is Shed Tail (by itself) broken?

Does Shed Tail make Orthoworm broken?

Is Shed Tail + Cyclizar (Regen) combo actually what's broken?

 

[DaddyBuzzwole]

Why? Is it because it's ugly?

because it's technically a box legendary

 

[Finchinator]

There is not even close to enough evidence to look into Shed Tail right now. Espathra is good with screens or even standalone.

This can change in the future for sure if other metagame developments occur, but right now Espathra is the focus.

 

[fly casanova]

During my entire run for the Suspect, I've struggled a great lot against Espa, and the easiest matches were... against Shed Tail Orthworm + Espa.
It is SO EASY to deny a Tail from the worm, that the placement of Espa instead becomes predictable.

dude it's so funny you say that, I was just looking at some discrepancies in the two's usage stats.

this is from pikalytics - espathra is partnered w orthworm 45% of the time, followed by tusk, the most-used mon in the tier.

orthworm, on the other hand, is partnered w espathra nearly 90% of the time. the above 45% is still significant, but it's not on this level. nine out of ten orthworms you face will have an espathra.

I'm simplifying, but what I extrapolate from this is that espathra can function without orth, while orth needs a snowball like espathra to make the most of its passed shed tails.

furthermore, let's look at pokestats (for the month):

espathra, when it teras - which it will in many games - wins 55% of its games. that's really significant, given that this is macro-level data across every OU game played. most mons hover right at or very close to 50%. for reference, tusk is at 52.29% and gholdengo is at 51.47%, and 50% and 49.53% with tera, respectively. orthworm, on the other hand...

...is at a standard 50%, again significant for the same reasons. I'd argue this indicates that shed tail and tera are just enough to push espathra into broken territory, rather than espathra being a product of the tail itself.

honestly? shed tail is kind of a fun mechanic without cyclizar around to abuse it. I'd rather see espathra go before we point to shed tail as the reason it's broken, so glad finch + the council seem to be on the same page.

 

[1LDK]

I want to get a general consensus and see people's opinions on these question:

Is Shed Tail (by itself) broken?

Does Shed Tail make Orthoworm broken?

Is Shed Tail + Cyclizar (Regen) combo actually what's broken?

MY PERSONAL OPINION


Shed Tail is broken, not espatra, no cyclizar, not orthworm, the reason is that THERE is a common denominator between most set up sweepers, Espatra as a standalone mon can be as devastating as we now know, but it's cheesy, It's easy to do stuff like taunt, whirlwind, priority, just hit it hard, set up alongside it, that's why HO need to account for defensive mons and use Espa as a last sweep mon

Hell, how far we are untill we get stuff like Orthworm stall/semi stall, you now need to kill the sub, but bam, free toxic or Torch Song, imagine even block curse tera ghost garganacl

Sure, you could also make a case that Screens are the common denominator, because it has proven time and time again that something under screens instantly becomes better, but we can't just delete screens from the game, because screens HO is a genuine real play style, and we cannot just delete that

With that being said, while we still don't know about HOME release, February 27th is Pokémon Day, therefore, in middle March/early April we will probably get home

with all of this in mind, my opinion on priorities is
1) Suspect Shed Tail, kindly ask high level players (force them by force-feeding them brown bananas) to create teams with shed tail but no espatra, eventually someone will be able to prove the point, or maybe even the opposite

2) Depending on what happens next after that, either quick ban Espatra or keep it under radar

3) If all of this is still not enough, ban orthworm, or you know, go back to step one

3) If there is still time left, and everything is solved, suspect Garganacl, pls

 

[YNM]

I want to get a general consensus and see people's opinions on these question:

Is Shed Tail (by itself) broken?

Does Shed Tail make Orthoworm broken?

Is Shed Tail + Cyclizar (Regen) combo actually what's broken?

I don't think it's broken, but I do think it's uncompetitive and one of the most bullshit moves out there. As we all have figured out by now the only thing that's holding back Shed Tail is its user, in our case Orthworm, because it has the potential to make otherwise average mons into actual problems. This is literally the only reason why Orthworm is in OU, and as I've said before there are other mons that become way too problematic simply because of Shed Tail, besides Espathra, those being all the classic sweepers in the tier like DD Dragapult, Dragonite, Volcarona, Moon etc. I don't think there's enough evidence right now to view Shed Tail as a potential banworthy move, due to the implications it would bring (move ban + unbanning Cyclizar), but I'd say that we should keep an eye on it, especially after the Home releases. Orthworm is quite simply an average mon right now, but the problem I have with it is that the few times it abuses this mechanic it feels almost unfair to those who face it. We have a similar situation regarding Revival Blessing, but I think the latter is overall too inconsistent and it also does not provide as much support as a free sub would, as crazy as it sounds.

Yes,because its ugly, but also because I don,t want a Mon that fast, with Rapid Spin, Knock Off, U-Turn and Regenerator at the same time in the Meta, especially with all the resistances its typing has. It probably won,t even be that common (and obviously not broken without the move), but it will be the type of Mon that when used against my teams specifically, will annoy me a lot. Him being the best Shed Tail user was a blessing for me and I was very happy when it got banned, after Annihilape, it was the Mon I wanted to see out of the meta the most, neither Chi Yu, nor Chien Pao got that much amount of hate from me.

Meh, I don't see how a mon like Cyclizar would ever be considered a problem (without Shed Tail obviously). Sure, it has incredible utility in Spin and Knock Off, plus a great pivoting move with U-turn that allows it to exploit Regen, but it's nonetheless frail AF and a pretty weak mon. The only way it has to be annoying is by spamming Knock Off, but keep in mind we're coming from a gen where almost any other mon had that move in their movepool. I wouldn't mind it coming back without Shed Tail, if we disregard the problem of the complex ban (but we can't).

Shed Tail is broken, not espatra

Nah, Espathra is broken regardless and it needs to go.

 

[Return to Zero]

I want to get a general consensus and see people's opinions on these question:

Is Shed Tail (by itself) broken?

Does Shed Tail make Orthoworm broken?

Is Shed Tail + Cyclizar (Regen) combo actually what's broken?

Just the concept of Shed Tail in a vacuum is fine. The worst abusers of it like Espathra are perfectly capable of doing their thing with just dual screens and switching in on the right mon. Or hell, even just using Substitute themself.

I don't think it makes Orthworm broken? Orthworm is super slow, but with great defense and a Ground immunity, whereas Cyclizar is faster than most unboosted mons but frail. The "Oh I can put thus guy in and Shed Tail since the current matchup would be favorable" situations are very different between them. Cyclizar's are more broadly useful, but it can't sit in front of a Roaring Moon Outrage. I dunno.

I think Cyclizar would probably be okay if it was added back to OU once the super minmaxed abusers of Shed Tail who can run away with games after two turns of setup are gone but I get why it's probably not coming back. Regardless, it's definitely Regenerator that's the strongest thing about Shed Tail, no question. Maybe Cyclizar with Shed Skin would be fine?

 

[1LDK]

I don't think it's broken, but I do think it's uncompetitive and one of the most bullshit moves out there. As we all have figured out by now the only thing that's holding back Shed Tail is its user, in our case Orthworm, because it has the potential to make otherwise average mons into actual problems. This is literally the only reason why Orthworm is in OU, and as I've said before there are other mons that become way too problematic simply because of Shed Tail, besides Espathra, those being all the classic sweepers in the tier like DD Dragapult, Dragonite, Volcarona, Moon etc. I don't think there's enough evidence right now to view Shed Tail as a potential banworthy move, due to the implications it would bring (complex ban + unbanning Cyclizar), but I'd say that we should keep an eye on it, especially after the Home releases. Orthworm is quite simply an average mon right now, but the problem I have with it is that the few times it abuses this mechanic it feels almost unfair to those who face it. We have a similar situation regarding Revival Blessing, but I think the latter is overall too inconsistent and it also does not provide as much support as a free sub would, as crazy as it sounds.

Meh, I don't see how a mon like Cyclizar would ever be considered a problem (without Shed Tail obviously). Sure, it has incredible utility in Spin and Knock Off, plus a great pivoting move with U-turn that allows it to exploit Regen, but it's nonetheless frail AF and a pretty weak mon. The only way it has to be annoying is by spamming Knock Off, but keep in mind we're coming from a gen where almost any other mon had that move in their movepool. I wouldn't mind it coming back without Shed Tail, if we disregard the problem of the complex ban (but we can't).

To be fair with everyone, I haven't actually encountered first hand an espatra with its own sub, but that kinda makes it troublesome with coverage, right? I have been swept with orthworm + espatra tho

orthworm, on the other hand, is partnered w espathra nearly 90% of the time. the above 45% is still significant, but it's not on this level. nine out of ten orthworms you face will have an espathra.

this is actually a cool statistic, because in my personal interpretation, shows that Orthworm is going to leech into the most broken sweeper available and start smashing stuff, I'm personally not opposed to an Espatra ban, but I think Shed tail should be looked into first

 

[RoiDadadou]

There is not even close to enough evidence to look into Shed Tail right now. Espathra is good with screens or even standalone.

This can change in the future for sure if other metagame developments occur, but right now Espathra is the focus.

dude it's so funny you say that, I was just looking at some discrepancies in the two's usage stats.

View attachment 491330
this is from pikalytics - espathra is partnered w orthworm 45% of the time, followed by tusk, the most-used mon in the tier.

View attachment 491331
orthworm, on the other hand, is partnered w espathra nearly 90% of the time. the above 45% is still significant, but it's not on this level. nine out of ten orthworms you face will have an espathra.

I'm simplifying, but what I extrapolate from this is that espathra can function without orth, while orth needs a snowball like espathra to make the most of its passed shed tails.

furthermore, let's look at pokestats (for the month):

View attachment 491341
espathra, when it teras - which it will in many games - wins 55% of its games. that's really significant, given that this is macro-level data across every OU game played. most mons hover right at or very close to 50%. for reference, tusk is at 52.29% and gholdengo is at 51.47%, and 50% and 49.53% with tera, respectively. orthworm, on the other hand...
View attachment 491337
...is at a standard 50%, again significant for the same reasons. I'd argue this indicates that shed tail and tera are just enough to push espathra into broken territory, rather than espathra being a product of the tail itself.

honestly? shed tail is kind of a fun mechanic without cyclizar around to abuse it. I'd rather see espathra go before we point to shed tail as the reason it's broken, so glad finch + the council seem to be on the same page.

Both of those, exactly. Shed Tail banning isn't a solution, it's just delaying the problem. Espa is, I'd argue, even better when it doesn't have to rely on your gimmick team being useful. And when it doesn't have to share the 'right to Tera' with other Mon.

As it stands, the Mon is not fine, with Tail, with screens, with both or on its own.

The point of a lot of people is: Espa is very good, but Tail/Screens pushes it too far.

No, just no.

Espa is already way too far, and Tail happens to push some bounds a bit more.

 

[Avira]

yNotMence, I don't think you know what a complex ban is. A move ban itself isn't complex. A complex ban happens when there are two or more elements restricted together. If Shed Tail proves to be problematic even on Orthworm, we can unban Cyclizar and implement a simple ban on Shed Tail. The Moody, Shadow Tag, Arena Trap, and Baton Pass bans are all simple bans, not complex ones.

 

[Mikegengsta]

Both of those, exactly. Shed Tail banning isn't a solution, it's just delaying the problem. Espa is, I'd argue, even better when it doesn't have to rely on your gimmick team being useful. And when it doesn't have to share the 'right to Tera' with other Mon.

As it stands, the Mon is not fine, with Tail, with screens, with both or on its own.

The point of a lot of people is: Espa is very good, but Tail/Screens pushes it too far.

No, just no.

Espa is already way too far, and Tail happens to push some bounds a bit more.

If people ban shed tail, then Grimmsnarl will be an auto include to dual screens and do what sweepers do behind a sub. The only thing is you can peck them to damage and status them. However, I want shed tail gone. Not sure why it’s been around for this long.

 

[Mikegengsta]

Meh, I don't see how a mon like Cyclizar would ever be considered a problem (without Shed Tail obviously). Sure, it has incredible utility in Spin and Knock Off, plus a great pivoting move with U-turn that allows it to exploit Regen, but it's nonetheless frail AF and a pretty weak mon. The only way it has to be annoying is by spamming Knock Off, but keep in mind we're coming from a gen where almost any other mon had that move in their movepool. I wouldn't mind it coming back without Shed Tail, if we disregard the problem of the complex ban (but we can't).

Tornadus -t has knock off and u-turn abusing regen. Cyclizar would play a similar role but rapid spin and it’s not as good as tornadus-t. If shed tail gets banned, I feel that cyclizar would be fine honestly.

 

[Finchinator]

Cyclizar would likely be a lower tier Pokemon if not for Shed Tail. Good utility for sure, but it does not make any progress.

Shed Tail itself is not banned because Orthworm pass has not gotten the support from the community. I will be happy to include it in future surveys to even prove this further, but it has not even registered thus far. Obviously things can change and I am happy to keep an open mind and evaluate the topic more down the line though.

 

[YNM]

To be fair with everyone, I haven't actually encountered first hand an espatra with its own sub, but that kinda makes it troublesome with coverage, right? I have been swept with orthworm + espatra tho

I've encountered a few of these sets and yes, they are indeed annoying. The only positive thing is that if Espathra runs Sub it means it must either drop a coverage move or Roost/Protect, but it's still as annoying nonetheless.

yNotMence, I don't think you know what a complex ban is. A move ban itself isn't complex. A complex ban happens when there are two or more elements restricted together. If Shed Tail proves to be problematic even on Orthworm, we can unban Cyclizar and implement a simple ban on Shed Tail. The Moody, Shadow Tag, Arena Trap, and Baton Pass bans are all simple bans, not complex ones.

My bad, I expressed myself poorly. When I mentioned the complex ban I was referring to Eeveeto's claim that Cyclizar would be problematic even without Shed Tail, and therefore having it in OU without that move would result in a complex ban (with Orthworm still allowed to carry it). I kinda mixed my arguments for a second.

 

[SpritePony]

Cyclizar would likely be a lower tier Pokemon if not for Shed Tail. Good utility for sure, but it does not make any progress.

Shed Tail itself is not banned because Orthworm pass has not gotten the support from the community. I will be happy to include it in future surveys to even prove this further, but it has not even registered thus far. Obviously things can change and I am happy to keep an open mind and evaluate the topic more down the line though.

I voted to look into Shed Tail with this survey, though!

But in all seriousness, if council doesn't vote to QB the emu, I hope Shed Tail comes up for next suspect test (after Espathra) and that Cyclizar can come back in its stead. As I sound like a broken record now; The only reason Orthworm is OU by usage right now is because of Shed Tail and Shed Tail alone. Most teams I see it on are matchup phishing teams with like... Orth/Grim/Esp/+3. Usually a bunch of setup sweepers, or dangerous stuff like Chien-Pao.

 

[ant4456]

W

 

[Lalaya]

time to see for the next week the chien-pao coping by bringing Weavile every game then realizing he hits like a wet sock

 

[awyp]

Weavile welcome back buddy we miss you dearly

 

[RoiDadadou]

SIUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!