Every metagame is going to deal with issues and even issues overlapping. It’s our job to stay in-touch with the community and make the best decision for our players.
Every metagame is going to deal with issues and even issues overlapping. It’s our job to stay in-touch with the community and make the best decision for our players.
But if that was the problem, King's Rock would have been banned way back when tiering policy was first developed. It was always a 10% chance of random BS, which could happen on any pokemon and is impossible to anticipate. It showing up on Cloyster is both more powerful and less random. Suddenly it's a common item pick for a specific pokemon, that you can scout like any other item, and has a chance of flinch that is high enough that you should reasonably take it into your calculations*. That's not RNG, that's a tradeoff the same as picking Fire Blast over Flamethrower is.
And that's when the ban came through. It wasn't banned for being RNG, it was banned for being good and annoying.
And that's a valid reason to ban things, to be fair. I'm just saying that a lot of debaters on every side here are holding up the policy like they're sacred texts, arguing over what the meaning of "is" is, but in practice a lot of people are going to vote based on "the meta will be less shitty if X", and that shouldn't be forgotten.
*41% chance of increasing damage by 100%, repeating. Which makes it better than LO but less reliable
Only if you think flinching in general is a problem**. Jirachi doesn't have an RNG chance of winning. At 60%, Jirachi's flinch chance is more reliable than not. The person who stays in and tries to hit through the flinching is the one who hopes the RNG works in their favor, the person using Jirachi is just abusing a stunlock, a perfectly reasonable thing to do in competitive games.
**And we haven't banned Fake Out, so it's not
i've gotta respect the work that went into this statistical analysis, but i also have to point out that it's much more difficult to actually determine which mon is most responsible for kos sometimes than can be done with simple statistics. how should you factor in hazards, or residual damage? (not factoring them in at all is probably not the best practice.) if something dies to salt cure while garganacl isn't on the field, who do we attribute that to? what if a mon does 90% to the opponent and dies, then some weaksauce stallmon comes out and takes the other 10? we know which one got the ko, but which one was really responsible for it? who put in the work?Ok so basically this is kind of late but
I wanted to take a more objective and macro-level look at the impacts of Terastalization, so I've spent the past week and a half or so writing up some code that can take in a replay and output a set of stats indicating the performance of each Pokemon in that game, such as the number of active turns, times brought in, KOs, % damage dealt, and more. More importantly, I also tracked which Pokemon terastallized in a game, enabling us to compare the performance of pokemon that terastallize to those that do not to see if we get any significant results.
Turns Active specifically refers to how many times a Pokemon used a move during battle.
Times Brought is pretty self-explanatory; this includes being the lead, being pivoted in, coming in after a sack, and just raw switching in.
Percent Damage Dealt only includes damage dealt by direct attacks. Chip dealt by hazards, poison, salt cure, etc. are not included in this variable. If a pokemon damages a Substitute that damage is not added to this variable.
KOs is the number of opposing pokemon that were knocked out while the pokemon was active, including damage from direct attacks and indirect damage as well. If an opposing pokemon knocks itself out with Healing Wish, Explosion, etc. this does not count as a KO.
Hits Taken is the number of direct attacks a pokemon sustained, as well as the number of times the pokemon is swapped into a move it is immune to. This aims to be the main metric by which a pokemon's defensive capabilities are measured.
Percent Healed sums all healing done to a pokemon, including passive recovery from Leftovers. If another pokemon passes Wish/Healing wish to the pokemon, the pokemon that received the wish gets its percent healed stat added to.
The Tera indicator variable is a 1 if the pokemon terastallizes during a game, and is 0 otherwise. If a pokemon does terastallize, its stats reflect its overall performance in the game, both before and after terastallizing.
For my dataset I used every SV WCoP game after the Urshifu and Volcorona bans, giving a dataset of 232 games to work with; the dataset can be found here. I also dropped all pokemon that had 0 active turns in battle, thus wouldn't even have the chance to tera if it wanted to. For my analysis I did a fixed-effect regression using terastallization as the explanatory variable against several different dependent variables. Simply put, for each pokemon it takes the difference between its performance without terastallization and compares it to its performance with terastallization to compute the overall effect terastallization has on pokemon performance. I also looked at how terastallization impacts the performance of the most commonly terastallized pokemon in WCoP, being Kingambit, Garganacl, Iron Valiant, and Baxcalibur. In light of the incoming Kingambit suspect I also ran the regression on all pokemon excluding Kingambit, to estimate the impacts of Tera in a metagame without Kingambit. The results can be found here.
Surprisingly, terastallization had significant results for most metrics I chose to look at, meaning we can be confident that these results weren't just caused by random chance in our dataset. Notably, on average, terastallization increases the KOs a pokemon attains by 0.679, the % damage dealt by 61.984, hits taken by 0.468, and the number of active turns by 1.642, indicating that terastallization has nontrivial impacts on a pokemon's ability to make progress in a game. However, a pokemon that terastalizes does not have significant effects on the number of times it switches in, supporting the premise that terastallization is mainly utilized for short-term swings and endgame cleanups than to improve a pokemon's longevity over the course of a game.
Looking at some pokemon individually, we first see that Kingambit yields results mostly similar to that of Tera on the entire dataset. From this lens it seems that terastallization may not be as major of a factor in Kingambit's current power levels.
Garganacl's results are also not particularly surprising; Tera lets it sustain more hits and Recover more often than the average Tera user. Offensively, its numbers are rather low since Salt Cure isn't being added to damage numbers currently.
The most surprising results come from Iron Valiant and Baxcalibur's performances. Both of these pokemon don't have significant results for hits taken, but have the highest significant numbers for damage dealt and KOs, showing their ability to suddenly Tera to net a KO during a game rather than utilizing Tera defensively for setup opportunities.
Lastly, the results of the analysis without Kingambit in the dataset are mostly similar to that with Kingambit included, so part of me is skeptical how much a Kingambit ban will actually do for making terastallization healthier.
One thing to note however, these regressions also resulted in low R^2 values across the board, meaning that the effects that terastallization has high variance on the outcome. While this high variance may at first glance imply the inconsistency of the mechanic and the ability to play around it, a look at the actual distributions of our variables argues an opposite story. For instance, take a look at the difference between the number of KOs attained by pokemon that do not Terastallize versus pokemon that do:
View attachment 537631View attachment 537632
Here, we see that despite high variance, the ability of terastallization to net a pokemon KOs is quite consistent, with less than 30% of terastallized pokemon obtaining no KOs at all. This compares to over 50% of non-Tera pokemon getting no KOs in a game. The high variance instead comes into play through a terastallized pokemon's ability to net potentially several KOs in a game. The consistency at which this occurs- more than 70% of terastallized pokemon attain a KO in a game- demonstrates that the mechanic currently is very difficult to play around, even at a tournament level. Because of this, I'm leaning to support some sort of tiering action for Tera. So yeah let me know if you have any feedback or questions or other things I should analyze
I'm not here to comment on what you said, but more on that replay.As someone who’s played semi-competitively since the days of shoddy battle, I just find Tera to be an uncompetitive mechanic unlike what has existed in other gens. While I acknowledge there is some skill to get the best use out of it, it often throws the game into a degree of awkwardness and variability that you just cannot prepare for. No matter what. I don’t know what the proper course of action is. I just think occasions like this admittedly ridiculous low-ladder game should not exist in competitive Pokémon:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-1910151827
Forgive my eloquence, but this just feels… wrong.
I'm not here to comment on what you said, but more on that replay.
omm You are just horrible at this game.
I say that and then comment on tera, jus ignore that partWhat a great contribution to the discussion.
Sidenote: if great tusk ran a coverage move, it could have ohkoed anw so Tera isn’t even an excuseI'm not here to comment on what you said, but more on that replay.
omm You are just horrible at this game. they tera into electric, kill your main mon and you just forfeit?
before tera that typa stuff just existed. people faint someone's main mon and they forfeit, that jus how the cookie crumbles lil bro
I say that and then comment on tera, jus ignore that part
Tera didn't invent that type of main issue that are you are talking about. People used to mega first turn and kill with the increased stats and someone forfeited,
people got z-moved first turn and forfeited, people got dynamax swept within the first turns and got swept
, people got dynamax swept within the first turns and got swept
The whole point of even saving the replay was to show how ridiculous the mechanic is. Tera Electric Tusk makes no logical sense to serious players, but the fact that it can type change, gain a new STAB + coverage, and turn what is conventionally a hard check to Great Tusk into minced lunch meat is the point of the replay.
It’s a silly argument and premise. Mega’s are limited to select Pokémon, have a defined typing and stats, and are easily identifiable in team preview.
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Z-moves were also limited to defined move strength and typing, did not change the user’s typing, and could be used only once per game.
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Thank you for citing a mechanic that was quickbanned because of how stupidly broken it was.
RaikouLover I know you hate Tera but come on your opp doesnt have a water or ground resist, what we doing here with this replay. I can hop on letter spam account and do similar dumb shit in 5 minutes that we all know is bad. This replay nonsense bro lol.
Honestly, after seeing that turbo ragequit game, it really shows to me that you have A LOT to learn about the series as a whole. Tera is nowhere near as bad as Dynamaxing or Z-Moves; Both of which BREAK THROUGH PROTECT. (But not Max Protect in the case of DMaxing, or immunities.)Tera has turned the game into a literal free for all. If people want to make dumb sets it was once confined to actual Pokémon learnsets. Now it is be whatever type of mon you want. I just don’t see that as competitive.
Honestly, after seeing that turbo ragequit game, it really shows to me that you have A LOT to learn about the series as a whole.
You lost to a cheese set on low ladder and are using it to try and ""justify"" that Tera is an uncompetitive mechanic. That's just the textbook definition of mad because bad.
I'd hate to see how you'd fare against a whole gimmick team.
I personally find Tera to be an enjoyable mechanic on both ends of the game, as it can suddenly shift the checks and counters for a Pokemon, or make them way more scary than they usually would be.
Z Moves were fine, in play and objectively. They were restricted by requiring an item and needing a move in the learnset in the first place. This is distinctly different from tera, which requires no item, allows the mon to keep previous stabs, and even power them up if it desires. And with Tera blast allows for mons to have the desired coverage at the cost of a slot which some mons don't mind.Honestly, after seeing that turbo ragequit game, it really shows to me that you have A LOT to learn about the series as a whole. Tera is nowhere near as bad as Dynamaxing or Z-Moves; Both of which BREAK THROUGH PROTECT. (But not Max Protect in the case of DMaxing, or immunities.)
i hate to break it to ya but these aren't personal attacks, we're all just baffled. you ragequit, recorded yourself ragequitting, posted it on a highly trafficked forum thread, and are now having a very public meltdown about tera. you couldn't pay me to embarrass myself like that. if you've been here since 2006 and you're still ragequitting over niche sets, you need to sit down and do some serious self-evaluation over the place that competitive pokemon holds in your lifeI’ve been a member of this forum for over 15 years and I can’t ever remember the community being this forward with personal attacks.
i think z-moves were kinda bullshit and they broke a lot of mons, but they didn't deserve the banhammer because they weren't broken in and of themselves. now why does that sound familiarZ Moves were fine, in play and objectively. They were restricted by requiring an item and needing a move in the learnset in the first place. This is distinctly different from tera, which requires no item, allows the mon to keep previous stabs, and even power them up if it desires. And with Tera blast allows for mons to have the desired coverage at the cost of a slot which some mons don't mind.
Besides, the mechanic no longer exists so it holds no actual sway when talking about gen 9 and tera.
i think z-moves were kinda bullshit and they broke a lot of mons, but they didn't deserve the banhammer because they weren't broken in and of themselves. now why does that sound familiar
I personally find Tera to be an enjoyable mechanic on both ends of the game, as it can suddenly shift the checks and counters for a Pokemon, or make them way more scary than they usually would be.
if you've been here since 2006 and you're still ragequitting over niche sets, you need to sit down and do some serious self-evaluation over the place that competitive pokemon holds in your life