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NOC The Mafia Invitational (Game Thread) [D2 Deadline: Friday, March 2nd, 6 PM EST]

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Twin is a weird wagon right now. Like he's actively avoiding engaging and giving his thoughts and a lot of people seem to support him. So on one hand I question if twin = scum actually makes this little effort. But on the other, I feel like the wagon is mostly pure so maybe the scum team have just given up on him? This is a meta read I guess, and I do scum read twin in a vacuum because of our earlier interaction. But a lot of the behavior and reactions make me think he is going to flip town

I think this would happened to anyone who posts like twin has regardless of alignment. I don't think he's given enough substance for his bros to defend him. Don't think a lot of other people have been as scummy as he has so it's harder to build wagons for those.
 
idk maybe you guys are bad at forming discussion topics but I find it really easy to comment on things.

  • What do you think of DLE constantly viewing the thread but chiming up very little, including promising to bring fire and ending up having a semi-lame reads list?
  • How do you view the interactions between LightWolf and MS? Do you think MetalSonic was appeased to easily?
  • Formal Hope brought up a decent argument about people's feelings about twin - do you agree with them? Do you think there's a counterpush going against twin to keep him alive today, and who do you think that is?
  • Is Walrein a viable second wagon?
  • Where does Josh sit with you wrt things outside the fruit vendor claim? How do you think his solving has been?
    • Do you think that Texas would allow his game to be broken enough to where if a fruit vendor claimed there would be such a high number of confirmed villagers from Josh's perspective?
  • What are some reads that you disagree with with other players? Should I not have MetalSonic/PaperBlade/Asek as high town? Why?
 
latest
 
idk maybe you guys are bad at forming discussion topics but I find it really easy to comment on things.

  • What do you think of DLE constantly viewing the thread but chiming up very little, including promising to bring fire and ending up having a semi-lame reads list?
  • How do you view the interactions between LightWolf and MS? Do you think MetalSonic was appeased to easily?
  • Formal Hope brought up a decent argument about people's feelings about twin - do you agree with them? Do you think there's a counterpush going against twin to keep him alive today, and who do you think that is?
  • Is Walrein a viable second wagon?
  • Where does Josh sit with you wrt things outside the fruit vendor claim? How do you think his solving has been?
    • Do you think that Texas would allow his game to be broken enough to where if a fruit vendor claimed there would be such a high number of confirmed villagers from Josh's perspective?
  • What are some reads that you disagree with with other players? Should I not have MetalSonic/PaperBlade/Asek as high town? Why?


1) Dogface needs to get his ass in gear. Let the benchmark for sucking stay with me.
2) Light is pretty much saying what I'm thinking. The only reason I'd be wary about it is I've seen ego jabbing used to tilt Townies before.
3) I think the only counterpush so far has come from Twin himself.
4) No, becuase Walrein is scraps.
5) I think the fruit vendor is the only thing going for him. If it happens, he might bust out something that lets him coast. But I doubt it's gonna happen.
5b) A Townie being told about one PR is plausible and unbroken. A scum being told about a Town PR is broken, becuase then he goes and tells his buddies and they have a leg up on the PR hunt.
6)
 
DLE viewing the thread kinda bugs me but it could just be he's checking it while at work and doesn't have time to post, idk if he works Saturdays though

I haven't really thought about sanic's reaction to LW that much, it'd probably be something to consider later if one of them flips scum I guess.

FH's concern is sort of valid but as you mentioned twin's not really doing anything so the most his buddies can do is sort of fearmonger the lynch. I do think it's unlikely that FH is scum in the world where twin is town because of this, I don't think that scum!FH comes into the thread to naysay the only existing wagon and do nothing else.

I think Walrein's an acceptable counterwagon. I think someone suggested an FH counterwagon earlier which is ??? considering how many people are willing to give FH a pass while animal mafia is ongoing

wrt Josh I'm conflicted. I feel like he has some good posts (such as https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...ry-26th-7-pm-est.3629094/page-38#post-7696727 ), but I feel like he's tunneling too much on A) the fruit vendor shit which is sort of bugging me because if the fruit vendor was interested they'd have claimed by now or B) interacting with metal sonic, and I'm not sure what that means.

I'm not sure if I'd put metalsonic top town but that might just be because his personality grates me a little and his playstyle is pretty abnormal for me. It also slightly pinged me that he took the opporunity of FH expressing concern with the Twin wagon to agree with him, which makes me think if Twin is scum it's possible sonic was a buddy trying to push the lynch away from him but didn't want to be the first one to hard defend him? I feel like I'm overthinking this
 
and wrt the subquestion on Josh I don't know, spitballing possible worlds/outcomes here

A. Josh is telling the truth about his role and is town.
B. Josh is telling the truth about his role and is mafia trying to get towncred
C. Josh is lying about his role and has no plan, at which point some time in lategame when we massclaim this gets revealed and he gets lynched. He can't backpedal because he's made it quite clear today that if he's lying we can lynch him
D. Josh is lying about his role but one of his scumbuddies is actually a fruit vendor but doesn't want to claim it and there was a communication failure where Josh went ahead with this plan without his buddy's consent?
 
hello

gimme 30+ to get around to backreading and seeing whats all goin on

we talkin bout lynching josh/twin? pref twin. not convinced josh's FV thing came from nefarious machinations
 
Josh on MU the day can end with the votecount we have now but we actually get a lynch vs. needing all 7 votes. So instead of having like a 5-4 wagon with the potatoes afking we need 7 votes which is actually a lot.
Ah, some mods on MS do it like this too. It is a lot, which is why we need to be vigilant and not end up 2 hours before deadline with nobody at L-1 and a no lynch looming. The obvious difference between here and MS is deadlines aren't basically irrelevant (~14 days) here.

LightWolf feels a lot more engaged and focused than he did in the last game I lost to him in. Even though his posts are mostly logic/mechanical based there's a bite to them I would say wasn't there in that game.
Yep.

Do you think D1 will end without an FV claim? Why or why not?
If it does end with out a claim, Doctor or Watcher should really be on me and FV should target me. I hope it ends with a claim. People are being dumb so at this point I would say it probably doesn't end with a claim.

RQS is better than dead air. The scene may be dead at Kong, but when it was alive this is how we kept talking.
where's that reads list buddy?
 
    • Do you think that Texas would allow his game to be broken enough to where if a fruit vendor claimed there would be such a high number of confirmed villagers from Josh's perspective?
This is not something that was intentional, I found a loophole.
  • Formal Hope brought up a decent argument about people's feelings about twin - do you agree with them? Do you think there's a counterpush going against twin to keep him alive today, and who do you think that is?
lolpreflips
  • What are some reads that you disagree with with other players? Should I not have MetalSonic/PaperBlade/Asek as high town? Why?
Why is MS a strong town read at this stage?

I feel like he's tunneling too much on A) the fruit vendor shit which is sort of bugging me because if the fruit vendor was interested they'd have claimed by now
Are you saying I'm not involved in the rest of the game?
D. Josh is lying about his role but one of his scumbuddies is actually a fruit vendor but doesn't want to claim it and there was a communication failure where Josh went ahead with this plan without his buddy's consent?
Trying to be as unbiased as possible, I don't believe this is a reasonable possibility from any POV. I am not that bad at Mafia. Also, ya'll don't seem to appreciate what I have with this whack FV speculation you're doing.

we talkin bout lynching josh/twin? pref twin. not convinced josh's FV thing came from nefarious machinations
Don't think anybody besides MS and possibly LW realistically wants to lynch me today, I think they're more just skeptical. Shrug. The vibe I get is more in the Twin / KoC / FH / maybe Walrein crowd.
 
My reads haven't really changed since yesterday.

Yeti and Proph I've got common sense reads on.
Empoof is my official "if he's scum I deserve to lose" slot.
Metal is gonna be a beartrap on the collective leg of Town if majority is every day.
Twin is breaking meta and until I get evidence to the contrary that equals breaking bad.

So what I have so far is Yeti and Proph Townlean, Empoof Townbias, Metal weak scumlean, Twin scum, and Josh null. Nothing else has pinged me so far.
 
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