I'm gonna talk about some things in this thread because I think it's interesting!
Atticus, I don't think Sanchez is terrible but wouldn't be surprised to see him do poorly as a starter. I think it's worth it in April considering the situation with Stroman, and it essentially acts as a chance to see if he can start. If he performs terribly over 4 starts, it's not the end of the world, and they'll sink him to the bullpen where he'll be a relief ace. If he performs average or mediocre, that's okay! He doesn't need to come in and save the world. Henderson Alvarez type performance would be great out of him, honestly. If he put up ~2 WAR I would be over the moon.
@other people, Cabrera is likely to be a really valuable fantasy asset I'd be wary of expecting top 5 performance, just from the variance of possible outcomes his injury + likely decline (though it won't be drastic unless the injury bug hits him terribly). If he isn't horribly injured I think he'll likely be done with his insane 170 wRC+ and likely be at 140 levels, which is still REALLY good but won't be MVP level.
I'm also a little skeptical at Bryant attaining the levels a lot of people expecting. We seem to have a Mike Trout created prospect bias, but in terms of the range of possible outcomes it is just so much more likely that Bryant plays at an above average level that it is hard to see the exuberance that others have.
For one last bit of predictions, I will proceed to pretend that I know anything about the randomness that is baseball.
AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. (WC) Buffalo Bisons.
3. (WC) New Hampshire Fisher Cats....
lol.
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Teams 2-5 are closer than 1-2 - the Red Sox are good and feature depth, and have an incredible amount of depth in their system for internal and external replacements through trades. A lot would have to go wrong for them to be horrible, though it's happened recently (2012) it shouldn't be considered something that makes them susceptible - in baseball, sometimes everything goes wrong.
The Stroman injury was huge for the Blue Jays, and they've introduced more variability (rightly so, in my opinion), by going young in quite a few areas. It's the type of upside play they needed to make, with their all-in offseason (their offense will be top 3 in MLB).
fuck the Orioles. If they win 90+ again I will change my avatar to that fucking orange thing.
AL Central
t1. Cleveland Indians
t1. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins
The Kansas City Royals aren't good. They weren't even that good last year, and they got worse. It was exciting to watch, but let's be realistic.
On the other hand, the Tigers are good! The Indians are good! They both have inherent risks. It's exciting to see ties and tiebreakers and watch them wreak havoc on the playoff structure, so I am rooting for chaos.
Writing these takes time actually and I'm lazy so here's the rest!
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Houston Astros
5. Texas Rangers
WC #1: LAA
WC #2: TBJ
Some talk about MVPs: It's incredible that Mike Trout is so good that I would almost take a bet for him over the field. It's insane to think that he is so good. However, he still represents the divide between old/new, and I am as optimistic as to him winning unless the Angels run away with the West (potential voter fatigue on repeat). Still, even if he doesn't win MVP in 50% scenarios, he has to be the most likely candidate.
If the Blue Jays do make the playoffs, Josh Donaldson will likely have been their best player, and Jose Bautista will receive the most MVP votes. Such is the way of the MVP.
AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL Cy: Chris Sale
AL Rookie of the Year: Daniel Norris
NL East
1. Washington Nationals
2. Miami Marlins
3. New York Mets
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Chicago Cubs
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinnati Reds
quick note here - 1-3 are really close imo (Cubs have the highest variance performance due to all their young players obviously), but I honestly see all of them in the second tier of teams in the NL (LA and WAS are 1-2)
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Note - the Rockies are better than the Diamondbacks. I fully expect this to be the year when they realize that holding on to Tulo/Gonzo is a foolish idea based on their current timeline. If they keep them, switch them, though it doesn't matter.
WC #1: CHC
WC #2: STL
I honestly can't see another team competing with them? The Marlins/Padres are the most likely combatants for one of the spots but it just feels like they're behind the curve. It can happen, but gun to my head 3 playoff teams out of the central.
More interesting than the AL MVP, the NL MVP feels like it could go an infinite number of directions. The NL Cy, on the other hand, seems like a bet of Kershaw vs. Field. Soler is mostly a playing time thing - but the NL Rookie of the Year will be really good.
I think people forget how young Bryce Harper is, and that he already has 2 4 WAR seasons. He is on a Hall of Fame career path (though obviously much less so than Mike Trout, the fucker spoiled us)
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
NL Cy: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: Soler (I WANNA SAY SYNDERGAARD SO BADLY)
Everyone else, what are your thoughts?