If You Were Watching A Battle, Which Pokemon Would Lead And Be In The Players' Teams?

[X-Act]

Hereunder are probabilities, taken from Doug's statistics, that a Pokemon would be in either or both teams in a Standard, UU or Uber battle you would choose to watch. I think this is better than just seeing numbers.

Lead Probabilities Here

Probabilities that these Pokemon would be in either or both teams in a Standard Battle:

----------------------
   Pokemon   Chance
----------------------
  Garchomp   58.06%
    Gengar   46.91%
  Gyarados   39.07%
   Lucario   36.40%
   Heatran   32.67%
  Deoxys-S   32.22%
   Blissey   31.11%
 Metagross   30.77%
  Bronzong   29.72%
 Tyranitar   27.22%
 Salamence   26.48%
 Infernape   24.32%
   Starmie   21.68%
    Celebi   21.53%
   Gliscor   20.11%
     Azelf   19.97%
  Vaporeon   18.02%
  Swampert   17.96%
   Weavile   17.46%
Forretress   17.44%
 Heracross   15.70%
  Skarmory   15.52%
    Zapdos   15.39%
 Cresselia   14.11%
 Magnezone   13.68%
   Snorlax   13.57%
    Scizor   13.07%
   Suicune   12.75%
 Mamoswine   12.72%
   Jirachi   12.50%
   Machamp   11.98%
  Togekiss   11.62%
Tentacruel   11.02%
   Yanmega   11.00%
Electivire   10.53%
  Dusknoir    9.89%
 Spiritomb    9.87%
 Dragonite    9.12%
   Breloom    8.98%
 Hippowdon    8.97%
   Gallade    8.96%
   Jolteon    8.71%
 Porygon-Z    8.29%
   Dugtrio    8.27%
   Milotic    8.26%
  Roserade    7.97%
   Ninjask    7.09%
  Alakazam    6.75%
Aerodactyl    6.38%
    Crobat    5.75%
   Donphan    5.59%
   Kingdra    5.52%
  Empoleon    5.34%
   Umbreon    5.29%
 Abomasnow    5.02%
All Others    < 5%
----------------------

Probabilities that these Pokemon would be in either or both teams in an UU Battle:

----------------------
   Pokemon   Chance   
----------------------
   Steelix   51.19%
   Claydol   41.42%
     Rotom   38.32%
 Hitmontop   34.31%
  Clefable   33.04%
   Swellow   31.03%
 Ninetales   27.37%
 Hitmonlee   26.82%
 Toxicroak   26.62%
   Leafeon   26.16%
  Froslass   25.61%
   Altaria   25.25%
     Hypno   24.27%
 Blastoise   23.34%
   Persian   23.29%
 Poliwrath   22.32%
   Scyther   19.97%
 Vileplume   19.57%
   Lanturn   19.54%
  Meganium   19.49%
   Drapion   18.10%
  Nidoking   18.09%
     Absol   17.78%
  Drifblim   17.76%
  Primeape   17.35%
 Probopass   16.86%
  Kabutops   14.79%
  Venomoth   14.74%
    Lapras   14.33%
  Sharpedo   13.51%
 Manectric   13.33%
   Glaceon   13.26%
 Gastrodon   13.20%
Kangaskhan   11.95%
 Nidoqueen   11.85%
   Grumpig   11.82%
  Rapidash   11.72%
   Omastar   11.68%
Hitmonchan   11.18%
 Relicanth   10.29%
 Electrode    9.78%
  Jumpluff    9.32%
      Jynx    8.61%
    Aggron    8.27%
       Muk    8.21%
   Banette    7.89%
  Cacturne    7.87%
  Quagsire    7.85%
  Cloyster    6.99%
 Sandslash    6.81%
   Shuckle    6.81%
   Torkoal    6.76%
  Camerupt    6.73%
   Golduck    6.69%
   Armaldo    6.23%
  Gorebyss    5.85%
   Linoone    5.84%
Victreebel    5.71%
   Mantine    5.40%
  Qwilfish    5.30%
  Chimecho    5.00%
All Others    < 5%
----------------------

Probabilities that these Pokemon would be in either or both teams in an Uber Battle:

----------------------
   Pokemon   Chance
----------------------
    Kyogre   83.86%
   Groudon   71.95%
  Rayquaza   70.85%
  Deoxys-A   67.53%
    Palkia   64.87%
    Dialga   57.58%
   Darkrai   52.98%
    Latios   39.35%
   Blissey   38.12%
     Lugia   36.71%
    Latias   36.17%
  Giratina   33.38%
    Mewtwo   33.03%
   Jirachi   25.89%
       Mew   23.06%
 Metagross   18.51%
Forretress   17.35%
 Tyranitar   15.46%
   Ninjask   13.65%
  Garchomp   13.61%
  Bronzong   13.46%
 Heracross   13.23%
    Scizor   12.84%
  Deoxys-D   12.03%
   Heatran   10.83%
   Manaphy    8.51%
     Ho-oh    8.34%
 Registeel    5.55%
 Wobbuffet    5.23%
  Shedinja    5.11%
   Weavile    5.10%
  Deoxys-S    5.10%
All Others    < 5%
----------------------

 

[Sunday]

Ah, that's awesome, expecially for seeing how centralised Pokemon in UU are compared to their OU counterparts, in a bit of a different way to your previous thread. In terms of chance of seeing each Pokemon, UU seems to be slightly behind on every level (bar 5th) until around the 13th, where OU takes a sharp drop but UU remains on a steady decline.

 

[Great Sage]

It's quite amazing how common Kyogre is; it's in over 5/6 of battles.

 

[JabbaTheGriffin]

It's quite amazing how common Kyogre is; it's in over 5/6 of battles.

Which is odd because quite frankly it's not that good (I don't use it on any of my uber teams).

Pretty interesting stats though. Thanks.

 

[Anti]

Interesting read. I'm surprised about that Blissey statistic for Ubers.

 

[sandman]

kyogre is the uber metagame

 

[Pneuma]

Yeah, UU is more centralized my ass.
I love statistics and numbers. *pores over*

 

[kd24]

   Steelix   51.19%
   Claydol   41.42%
     Rotom   38.32%
 Hitmontop   34.31%
  Clefable   33.04%
   Swellow   31.03%
 Ninetales   27.37%
 Hitmonlee   26.82%
 Toxicroak   26.62%
   Leafeon   26.16%
  Froslass   25.61%
   Altaria   25.25%
     Hypno   24.27%
 Blastoise   23.34%
   Persian   23.29%
 Poliwrath   22.32%
   Scyther   19.97%
 Vileplume   19.57%
   Lanturn   19.54%
  Meganium   19.49%
   Drapion   18.10%
  Nidoking   18.09%
     Absol   17.78%
  Drifblim   17.76%
  Primeape   17.35%

eh imo that is centralized out of the tons of options UU can have. That is basically the cut off at primeape meaning it would be rare to see anything used instead of these 25 pokemon.

Impressive list and im surprised at how common blastoise is on a persons teams :/

 

[McLovinn]

I was surprised to see how low Persian was... the majority of matches I have watched/played, somebody is using Persian...

 

[ultimifier]

im suprised that kyogre is that popular. i use him on less than half my teams and i notice that high quality uber players don't use kyogre THAT often. besides, the most popular kyogre set, scarfogre, is actually shit.

 

[Taylor]

Interesting, X-Act.

I suppose none of us are suprised at how popular Garchomp is and used.

However, Celebi on less than 25% of the teams we see today? Now, that's a shocker. Since the sudden Celebi craze that we went through a few months back, Celebi's usage has dramatically increased. But, according to these statistics, we see that Celebi's precentage indicates that it is used on only one team out of five. Don't you find that suprising? I do. Then again, this is ladder play after all. In tournament matches, where the majority of players are experienced and more familiar with the competitive metagame, Celebi becomes a primary asset to one's team and sees a lot of play; presumably because the better players know what it is capable of and how to use it correctly.

 

[JabbaTheGriffin]

Interesting, X-Act.

I suppose none of us are suprised at how popular Garchomp is and used.

However, Celebi on less than 25% of the teams we see today? Now, that's a shocker. Since the sudden Celebi craze that we went through a few months back, Celebi's usage has dramatically increased. But, according to these statistics, we see that Celebi's precentage indicates that it is used on only one team out of five. Don't you find that suprising? I do. Then again, this is ladder play after all. In tournament matches, where the majority of players are experienced and more familiar with the competitive metagame, Celebi becomes a primary asset to one's team and sees a lot of play; presumably because the better players know what it is capable of and how to use it correctly.

actually (if my math is right) celebi is used on only ~11% of teams. celebi is really a team specific pokemon that fits on teams that aim to be balanced/defensive. i'd actually be shocked if it was used any more that what it is now.

 

[Raverist]

Too right, Tay.

What surprises me is that Generic Land Shark isn't any higher, knowing how Noob-Friendly it is to use.

 

[BAD WOLF]

Wow, it's pretty interesting to see that none of the top six Standard pokemon are in any of my OU teams...

 

[Brawley]

Well if you're using salamence/dragonite/gliscor chances are that you are not using Garchomp. Also Kyogre and Groudon usage don't surprise me . *~*

 

[GB_Packers_Ftw]

wow this is fantastic excellent work x-act. This is interesting, i was very surprised by the kyroge stat as well.

 

[umbarsc]

im suprised that kyogre is that popular. i use him on less than half my teams and i notice that high quality uber players don't use kyogre THAT often. besides, the most popular kyogre set, scarfogre, is actually shit.

ScarfOgre isn't the most popular, at least not in my experience. Almost every Kyogre I've encountered is RestTalk, with Calm Mind or not, and what isn't RestTalk is usually Specs.

 

[Venom]

In all the times I've played Ubers, which is just a few, I always used SpecsOgre, which really does not surprise me that he is the most used really. And Swampert seems to be picking up too! but not as much as I would

 

[Arcaseven]

This interests me, as a newbie teambuilder. It convinces me even more than my in-progress Sandstorm team needs a good 'Chomp counter. I'm surprised at the high usage of Lucario, however. I've never been able to use one successfully.

 

[Kagster123]

Thanks X-Act, great job.

The OU list scares me to say the least. There's an extremely high difference between the bottom and top percentages, too much actually. I sense OU getting even more smaller and centralized come the next tier list update.

 

[DougJustDoug]

Great stuff, X-Act. Percentages are a nice way to present usage. Very intuitive.

It still boggles my mind that, despite the fact that almost EVERY SINGLE TEAM is specifically engineered to "handle" Garchomp in some way, Garchomp's usage continues to rise. Chomp is an amazingly effective pokemon...

 

[Great Sage]

The thing is, even if you prepare for Garchomp a hundred times over, it'll still find some way to win, hence why there's all this talk of its becoming Uber (by the way, to those who post subsequently, this is not a Garchomp thread, don't make it one).

 

[Ike]

Which is odd because quite frankly it's not that good (I don't use it on any of my uber teams).

Pretty interesting stats though. Thanks.

Ogre not that good jabba, he's great

Ultimifier: and scarfogre does suck

 

[Mystica]

Wow what an amazing list. Funny how the top 6 pokemon in OU are basically everyones teams on ladder now adays lol. And I'm surprised at Claydols usage in UU... I'd think Clefable or Rotom would be used more more. and LOL at Kyogre, I always knew it was on every goddamn Uber team.

 

[X-Act]

Just to clarify, these are not the chances of having a Pokemon in a particular team; these are the chances of having a Pokemon in either or both teams in a battle.