One of the larger problems I see in suspect test discussions is that people feel the need to provide situational evidence that attempts to emphasize whether or not a Pokemon is too overpowered. The big issue here is that almost anything can be handled appropriately given the right context or circumstance, and most top tier threats can also be made out to seem 'simply too good' by that same token. Hypothetical battle scenarios involving prediction is a cyclical argument. Using damage calculations to show how hard a Pokemon hits 95% of the metagame or giving pep talks about how centralizing something is to the metagame will not decisively illustrate whether or not a Pokemon is a practical problem. It will not demonstrate whether or not a player has the tools available to reasonably handle them, or even if they have no choice but to use them.
What is important to consider is whether or not you as a player feel pressured in to resorting to using that Pokemon to be competitively successful on the ladder because its too strong not to use, and there's simply no other alternative to allow you to succeed. Let me give you a distinct example.
I do not feel its necessary to monologue to any of you why
Kyogre is so strong. But lets consider the implications here if Kyogre was in OU for a second, and we were charged with suspect testing it to see if it should be moved to Ubers. If this thread (and most suspect test discussions) are any indication, people would likely be using similar arguments to necessitate a ban. Counters and checks, damage calculations, centralizing qualities, et cetera. Let's examine those for a second.
Kyogre, while difficult to handle defensively, has counters and checks.
Chansey, Ludicolo, Gastrodon, Blissey, Ferrothorn, Latias, Latios all come to mind. More open up if Kyogre is using Water Spout and its health decreases, and I'm sure with some exploration and creative thinking more could be found under broader conditions. That's actually quite a few for such a top tier threat. I often see comments on how
Landorus-I didn't have any counters or checks, and I know other threats like
Terrakion either fit this bill or are harder to handle via tactical theorymon and hypothetical battle scenarios. And since how much damage a threat is able to do to specific checks and counters often defines what those checks and counters are, which is observed through damage calculations, it would appear that even though its quite strong, it still has ways to be dealt with.
Kyogre would probably centralize the metagame. But does that imply Kyogre is broken? No, not necessarily. Many Pokemon have centralized the current meta in the past without needing to be suspect tested.
Blissey and
Scizor come to mind, as well as
Tyranitar. I'm sure there have been others. All of these Pokemon at one point or another commanded that the metagame shift its paradigm to account for them because of how influential they are. None of them needed to be tested though. They weren't needed to win, they were just really good options, and it made sense to account for them. Kyogre currently has a 45% ~ usage rate in Ubers--that displays an incredible amount of centralization, and thats because there is a correlation between how broken a Pokemon is and how often it will be used, ergo how influential it is in the meta and how much respect it commands. I'm just pointing this out to say that there is a correlation, but correlation does not equal causation, and that there is plenty of evidence of Pokemon that have stagnated diversity and centralized how the meta worked without being broken threats.
So if a Pokemon isn't broken just because it centralizes the metagame, and a Pokemon can still be broken even if it has both counters and checks, what defines if it is actually broken or not? What's the difference between Kyogre and all the other examples I mentioned? It's simple. In a metagame where Kyogre is legal in standard, you wouldn't be able to ladder and expect to be able to climb the ladder successfully and consistently
without having to resort to using Kyogre. Simply put, Kyogre is so strong that you would be foolish
not to use it. It wouldn't matter if you had the checks and counters necessary to take it out because there's nothing from stopping you from using the checks and counters to handle enemy Kyogre while also using your own. In a sense the competitive decision is made for you because there is no better alternative than to use it. This is a defining feature of a broken Pokemon threat.
HoL's posts kind of reminded of this specific Gen 4 Garchomp meta where every (successful) team followed this rigid protype:
Lead
Garchomp
Garchomp Counter #1
Garchomp Counter #2
Counter of Garchomp's Counter
Spinner and/or Anti-Lead.
Now tell mer, we can play the counter-counter game all day. Whether that's healthy or not is up to your (obvious) interpretation.
This illustrates what I am talking about perfectly. To quote Soul Fly, every
successful team was forced to use Garchomp in order to remain competitively successful on the ladder because there simply wasn't a reason to not use Garchomp, which eventually necessitated players in to also needing multiple counters and checks.
I feel these are the imperative question that players need to ask themselves when they ladder.
Will I lose if I don't use this? Can I win against people who are using this if I choose not to? Is there another competitively viable alternative, or am I forced to use this to win? People need to start relying on their battle experience to come to a consensus in these discussions.
I am not a suspect tester right now. I don't have an opinion on Keldeo, and I have been out of the loop since BW1, so I lack the experience and have absolutely no say here as to what Keldeo is like. But there are a lot of arguments being made for and against it that I think are missing their mark, and I think people need to shift their perceptions on how to approach suspect testing in general.