I knew people would comment on my tone... :(
The movepool stage has become a weird stage for me. In the past two CAP projects, I had my movepool submission go up against a submission that I did not agree with at all in the final poll, only to lose to my opponent. I won't lie when I say I felt badly about these losses, not only for myself but also for the submissions that I felt were significantly better than the winners, and to which I really wouldn't have minded losing. There has also been the pressure from winning the other two competitive submission contests and trying to pull off that hat trick / turkey. So I apologize for coming off as somewhat hostile to other submissions this time around. I have made an effort to tone down that aspect of my movepool descriptions.
I have also been meaning to make a statement with the whole alternate forme thing. The movepool discussions really left the Quiver Dance issue inconclusive, in my opinion, because each side was arguing from completely different perspectives, one assuming Quiver Dance and saying how un-risky that would be, and the other not assuming Quiver Dance and saying how bad that would be. There is clearly this huge divide that Quiver Dance arguably overcompensates for, when the ideal may require something in between. That was what my proposal was meant to illustrate, as I didn't have much of an opportunity to conduct a more thorough investigation during that time.
All that said, I've taken to investigating the Quiver Dance issue a bit further. To my surprise, I found another check, not in the 70+ scarfers, but in 252 HP Choice Specs Politoed:
252+ SpA Choice Specs Politoed Hydro Pump vs. +2 100 HP / 0 SpD (custom) in rain: 357-420 (100.56 - 118.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ SpA (custom) Bug Buzz vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Politoed: 225-265 (58.59 - 69.01%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+1 252+ SpA (custom) Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Politoed: 316-374 (82.29 - 97.39%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+1 252+ SpA (custom) Thunder vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Politoed: 400-472 (104.16 - 122.91%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ SpA Life Orb (custom) Bug Buzz vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Politoed: 292-344 (76.04 - 89.58%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
In a way, it makes sense to find a check in an offensive Politoed set, since Politoed is one of the best checks to Aurumoth by design (with respect to the stats). The surprising thing, though, is that it essentially compels QD Aurumoth to run Thunderbolt or Thunder. Moreover, Politoed actually loses if it switches into Tail Glow (multiply the first Bug Buzz calc by 5/3... yeah...) or Swords Dance Aurumoth. This, I suspect, changes a lot.
Those of you who can think back to Necturna may remember that we designated four solid checks for it. This resulted in a Pokémon that was very good, but arguably not top-tier material, and certainly not as broken as people initially thought when they considered Sketch morphing into Shell Smash, Sacred Fire and Spore. And that was when we designated four solid checks to an entire Pokémon. My proposal was meant to make Aurumoth scramble for coverage moves, but maybe it already does this. Without Thunderbolt, Politoed wins (if it hits) and Skarmory becomes annoying. Without Psychic or Ice Beam, the Therians, Dragonite and Salamence are significantly more threatening. Without Focus Blast, Heatran becomes a problem. And if you go Bug Buzz / Thunder(bolt) / Ice Beam? Terrakion and Magnezone murder that. And of course there are always Scizor and Jirachi.
Quiver Dance might still end up being stupid with Illusion and/or Weak Armour. We might still have luck factors deciding matches. Should Quiver Dance be restricted to No Guard? Should I just go with my TM illegality thing? Or should Quiver Dance be dropped? I'm still not sure, and I'm pretty sure that, in the end, no one's sure about this.
I disagree with the notion of comparing Aurumoth to Volcarona and concluding that it's less risky and less rewarding. Like I said in my movepool submission, I think that this is a misleading way of thinking about risk and reward. One of the questions posed in the concept submission is:
- What is the relationship between risk and potential consequences, both positive and negative?
What I've been getting out of this process is that risk and reward aren't independent of each other. A lack of reward is a risk in itself, and a lack of risk is a reward in itself. Treating them differently does not tell the whole story about risk.
I also disagree with the general fixation on Volcarona. We can't just look at successful Pokémon and conclude that we'll learn more if a CAP is not successful than if it's strong as hell. I certainly don't think we'll learn much more if Aurumoth becomes more like Honchkrow or Magmortar. Even Hydreigon is beginning to become a liability because of Genesect.
I also agree with Korski in that I don't think that having one set is necessarily a bad thing, especially if there is a lot of move and ability variation. In fact, that might be a good thing. Predictability is a risk in itself. I'll be honest; I always envisioned Aurumoth having one or two sets with minor variations. Though I haven't said "no" to the notion of multiple sets, I'm not sure we necessarily learn a whole lot by making Aurumoth super-versatile.
It's funny because, at the beginning of this process, I never really imagined that I'd post a serious defense of a sweeper setup move, even if it's not conclusive and I've said as much. My original attitude toward this concept was "aim carefully or die". So it's been interesting to see where Aurumoth has gone so far. Maybe this seems strange coming from the guy who won concept and stats, but it's true.
tl;dr: Sorry for talking like a jerk in my submission. I'm still giving a lot of thought into Quiver Dance and I think it deserves a better look than what we had in the movepool discussions.
At below: I suppose you can, but it might be a little bit weird.