[capefeather]

One source of frustration for me this time around has been a general lack of opinions from other people as to what they think about Quiver Dance (typically referring to when I ask about it on IRC). I've gotten nothing from the TL, nothing from people I'd particularly trust to advise me on decisions like this, and nothing from just people in general. I'm not holding that against any of you, but I'm just saying. I'm also getting the sense that my attempts to generate some more enlightening discussion on the matter have failed. So I think I'll just go one way or the other on Quiver Dance and Dragon Dance. Right now I'm leaning toward... not putting them on due to concerns about luck-based situations, as well as the historical unpopularity of ability illegalities.

I'll just leave this here for historical purposes:

Special

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I've investigated the effects of a 100 HP / 252 SpA Leftovers Modest Quiver Dance set (156 Spe outruns Choice Scarf Latios at +2 Spe) on common Choice Scarf users that outrun +1 Aurumoth. Here are my findings:

Genesect:
4 Atk Genesect U-turn vs. 100 HP / 0 Def (custom): 180-212 (46.63 - 54.92%) -- 66.02% chance to 2HKO
+2 252+ SpA (custom) Focus Blast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Genesect: 253-298 (89.39 - 105.3%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO
+2 252+ SpA (custom) Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Genesect: 221-260 (78.09 - 91.87%) -- 31.25% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

Therian Thundurus:
252 SpA Thundurus-T Thunder vs. +1 100 HP / 0 SpD (custom): 214-253 (55.44 - 65.54%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+2 Psychic obviously OHKOes back

Terrakion:
252 Atk Terrakion Stone Edge vs. 100 HP / 0 Def (custom): 330-390 (85.49 - 101.03%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock

Keldeo:
252 SpA Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. +1 100 HP / 0 SpD (custom): 196-232 (50.77 - 60.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Keldeo OHKOes with Rain and Stealth Rock up, but the setup goes through otherwise

Latios:
252 SpA Latios Draco Meteor vs. +1 100 HP / 0 SpD (custom): 231-273 (59.84 - 70.72%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Switching any of these Choice Scarf users directly into Aurumoth is, on the face of it, a very bad idea, since it can set up +2 on three of them, and neither Terrakion nor Keldeo is a safe switch-in to Aurumoth's STAB Psychic. Terrakion needs Stealth Rock for an 80% OHKO probability (nullified by No Guard), and Keldeo needs Rain and Stealth Rock to achieve the same (again nullified by No Guard). None of these stand a chance against +2 Aurumoth. This is huge when Aurumoth can set up on a large portion of OU without being KOed or paralyzed, with notable exceptions being Scizor and Jirachi. Skarmory can work if Aurumoth doesn't have Thunderbolt, and Magnezone can work if Aurumoth doesn't have Focus Blast. Illusion isn't even that necessary here, though let's look at what Aurumoth could cloak into, anyway:

Cloyster
Dragonite
Gyarados
Salamence
Therian Thundurus
Therian Tornadus

With respect to switch-ins that could stand a good chance against Quiver Dance Aurumoth, these disguises pair quite well. Nothing is a great switch into all of them, except maybe Jirachi against Therian Tornadus. This paints a picture of a set that still probably isn't broken, but may be providing too much reward for modest risk, unlike any other setup move. Even if a lack of Focus Blast produces some more checks, I don't want Aurumoth to obsess over Focus Blast outside of No Guard.

All that said, I understand where pro-QD people are coming from. The above Choice Scarf users can deal with Aurumoth quite easily without the awesome power of Quiver Dance. Maybe Quiver Dance Aurumoth just needs more checks? I find it very awkward to resort to restricting TM moves to events or egg moves, just to make them illegal with abilities or other moves. This is where my proposal comes in:

• Aurumoth gets an alternate forme with the same typing and stats, which gets Quiver Dance but loses access to TMs and egg moves. It would be similar to the Rotom and Kyurem formes, except the moveset would be wiped and replaced with Quiver Dance. Alternatively, it could just be some invisible trigger, but the alternate forme seems more realistic.
• Aurumoth can revert to its "usual" self, but doing this converts Quiver Dance to Dragon Dance.

Remember the "coverage risk" idea used to justify No Guard? This is the opposite of that. Get Quiver Dance, lose almost every move you might care about. I bet you're looking back at the level and tutor pools now. Everything makes so much more sense, now, doesn't it? This is the one interpretation of risk that everyone seems to agree on and I'm totally exploiting it!

I can already see one of the retorts to this. Isn't this just making Aurumoth even less rewarding than Volcarona, for the same amount of risk? This is where we realize that distinguishing between risk and reward as we have done up to now may not have been the best way to look at things. In fact, it seems pretty fallacious now. This is, in my view, exactly what we should be doing with setup sweeper risk. There is now quite a significant difference between how Aurumoth plays and how Volcarona plays (in case the difference wasn't big enough for you before). Even if the offensive coverage can be made similar, Volcarona is still king in this area. On the other hand, Aurumoth doesn't take 50% on a Stealth Rock switch-in, to be promptly murdered by Choice Scarf users or whatever else. On a mutant third hand, QD Aurumoth has only Wish (not even Rest) to go on, while Volcarona has Roost, Substitute and Rest.

I'm aware that people will dislike this proposal for various reasons. An alternate forme may add yet another layer to the "pre-evo process" for CAP 4, on top of what is looking to become a three-stager. It's a grossly unprecedented twist on what is being commonly interpreted as a pseudo-legendary. It will probably be a massive headache for Doug, as he may have to accommodate another forme (though it doesn't have to have an entirely different set of pages). Some may see it as an unnecessary accommodation for Quiver Dance, despite the very good arguments generally in favour of Quiver Dance. In other words, it's very weird and very uncharted. I have wrestled with going through with this myself, while the project limbered through the movepool discussions and even the current stage. Yet, I think that, ultimately, this is a very legitimate place to take the CAP 4 project, whether I go through with it in the final submission or not. I hope you see where I'm coming from as I embody the very concept in this part of my submission.



EVEN THE ROTOM MAKES SENSE NOW