Smogon Tournament Finals Game 1 Analysis

**kd24** · Mar 16th, 2013, 4:22:55 PM

I'm just going to preface this with a warning, if you use this thread to complain about OST, your post will get deleted. A lot of us were unhappy with how things turned out but this thread's purpose is to discuss Game 1.

The idea of analyzing matches isn't something I'm a great fan of, but I think analyzing competitive matches of a high level of play gives you access to metagame trends and decisions players are making. You can use this knowledge for your own teams going forward and I think it's something we can really learn from.

So we're going to see how this goes. The point of this is going to respectfully critique or comment on Game 1 of the Official Smogon Tournament Finals. It was actually a great match showcasing some things you should keep in mind as players and I'll provide my comments below the log.

Gr8astard:

Vs.

Destiny Unknown

Log of Destiny Unknown vs Gr8astard

Celebi

The first thing I'd note is that both teams shared only 1 Pokemon: Celebi. I think more and more that you have to consider this a Pokemon that is almost staple now. The most broken threats in the tier are sharing Celebi as a common weakness (Landorus-I, Keldeo, and Breloom spring to mind). How much did Celebi influence the teams here? Gr8 was using a Hidden Power Bug Keldeo solely for opposing Celebi. It's one thing to see that as a laddering decision but as a tournament decision, it's a risk he takes on the theory that Celebi is too good to just hope that it won't be used.

When Gr8 brought in his Feraligatr, Celebi was there to at least stop it on DU's side. It's just so good as a general stop to what they're doing just based on it's typing alone. Why aren't you using this?! I just feel like that without Celebi, I'm going to get swept by random threats right now way too often, specifically on ladder but in any high level of play.

Risk/Reward

I might be wrong on this one, but I'm not seeing the reward to DestinyUnknown's risky Jellicent play vs Feraligatr. When Jellicent had switched in to Feraligatr the first time, the Feraligatr switched out to Celebi. But Feraligatr comes in again and uses Swords Dance. If I'm DU, I have to be asking myself "Why would he waste a turn of set up once again?" Chalking "it switched out of Jellicent the first time" doesn't seem like smart management considering how pivotal Jellicent is to this team. It provides a stone cold wall to Keldeo, non Thunder Jirachi, Politoed, Garchomp, and Feraligatr if it doesn't have Crunch later. Gr8 can easily be thinking that he doesn't want to reveal Crunch on the chance that Jellicent switched the first time around.

With how key Jellicent was to DU's side, I think he could have formed a gameplan to win surrounding Landorus/Heatran + Jellicent for Gr8's entire team, while keeping Celebi and sacrifices in reserve for Feraligatr if he does have Crunch for Jellicent. At worst, he sacrifices one Pokemon to Feraligatr to ensure his board position and have a constant string of checks and counters for Gr8's team. From there, he just has to play around Feraligatr, rather than playing into it.

It goes to a key point that should be established: How am I going to win this game? Jellicent might have been the stone cold nuts to Feraligatr, but its role against the entire team was too high to value it that cheaply. Also consider the fact that Gr8's team could theoretically struggle with Jellicent so much if in fact his Feraligatr doesn't have Crunch. Would Gr8 really have brought a team like that? Specifically with Keldeo? It seems obvious to me that Feraligatr would be a lure in some way to kill Jellicent and allow Keldeo to move forward.

I might be entirely off base here so please if anyone wants to correct me don't shy away. Hopefully I can get DUNK and Gr8 to commentate on some of their thoughts and rationale behind the match but this will serve as a starting point of analysis for us to see what might be on the upward trend in OU (Celebi seems to be the key mon moving forward IMO).

Bad Ass · Mar 16th, 2013, 4:42:44 PM

i put up a video that records my live thoughts as it happened. this is without any knowledge of game 2 stuff or any real analysis. i, too, thought that gr8 had crunch even when he switched out, since that is a common trap. you can see it here (2 parts because i was interrupted, sorry): part 1: http://youtu.be/fNh9tT381lo part 2: http://youtu.be/INpIMDDVuL0

other than that, i totally agree with you. gr8 was VERY jellicent weak, and if dunk could keep sand up (not hard when gr8 doesnt have a spinner), even jirachi would get walled by heatran and landorus-t. that was a poor analysis of risk vs reward, and i'd call it a poor play by dunk rather than a good bluff by gr8. i mean, it was obviously smart of him to switch the first time, but the key tells such as him swords dancing and the rest of his team being entirely unable to handle jellicent should have tipped off dunk a little more.

although, kudos to him for seeing a path to victory and executing it. that ice beam turn 1 was a good play because it meant that celebi couldn't switch back in to eat feraligatr waterfall. i think he should have either just gone to jelli or recovered up instead of doubling, anyway, because celebi was pretty important to him (before he knew keld had hp bug)

overall gr8 definitely played better and deserved game 1

MikeDecIsHere · Mar 16th, 2013, 5:02:26 PM

I think that Gr8 switched out the first time in order to see if DU would scout for Crunch with Forretress or something, since Jelli-Tran really put a huge halt in Gr8's team, although Expert Belt Keldeo could have caught DU off guard later in the game, though Jelli would have been absolutely vital against HP Bug Keldeo

The second SD was a huge hint that the Feraligatr had Crunch though, but honestly, nothing on DU's team could really switch into Gatr. He was probably better off Saccing Forretress or something, but oh well.

As BadAss said, Hugo played the game better and deserved the win

Soul Fly · Mar 16th, 2013, 5:07:21 PM

Awesome to see the great Celebii reneissance so late into the bw2 metagame. The tornadus-t and and genesect bans have really caused some major upvheals in the tier.

The turn 4 burn could really have been a gamebreaker for gr8astard, but that was some beautiful late game prediction. But hats off to DU for totally mitigating and stopping garchomp in it's tracks with continuous pivot pressure from the CelebiLando U-turn core

I don't know about you people but IMHO Jellicent was thrown away too cheaply considering he singlehandedly walls/tanks half the opposition (and potentially Feraligatr if not for crunch)

Lategame Keldeo sweep was standard fare nothing remarkable.

Can anyone explain the clutch play involving Jellicent. WHY would you want to switch it onto a Set up Feraligatr since Crunch is a standard on such sets?

Lavos Spawn · Mar 16th, 2013, 5:12:15 PM

wasn't really a match you'd expect from the finalists of the ost9. gr8astard was clearly the better player in this particular battle, and despite what i believe was a slightly advantageous matchup in destinyunknown's favor, he managed to make some very high level double-switches and predictions to turn the game around. it also helped that dunk threw his jellicent away for nothing, the one pokemon that was really stopping gr8 from sweeping with feraligatr. but yeah i think when it comes right down to it gr8 just outplayed his opp and won in a deserving manner. i would advise people reading this thread to go over the first 10 turns or so, they show real mastery by gr8 in positioning himself to start knocking stuff out.

Neliel · Mar 16th, 2013, 5:30:59 PM

If you ever used feraligatr, you know that crunch is still a move that it can run to bypass jellicent, not standard but usable. I considered it even before keldeo was released in the past, so if you now see a team with keldeo and feraligatr, its pretty much obvious that feraligatr has crunch.

**kd24** · Mar 16th, 2013, 9:27:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Soul Fly

Awesome to see the great Celebii reneissance so late into the bw2 metagame. The tornadus-t and and genesect bans have really caused some major upvheals in the tier.

The turn 4 burn could really have been a gamebreaker for gr8astard, but that was some beautiful late game prediction. But hats off to DU for totally mitigating and stopping garchomp in it's tracks with continuous pivot pressure from the CelebiLando U-turn core

I don't know about you people but IMHO Jellicent was thrown away too cheaply considering he singlehandedly walls/tanks half the opposition (and potentially Feraligatr if not for crunch)

Lategame Keldeo sweep was standard fare nothing remarkable.

Can anyone explain the clutch play involving Jellicent. WHY would you want to switch it onto a Set up Feraligatr since Crunch is a standard on such sets?

Sorry but I'm not sure what you're referring to about the DU mitigating Garchomp. Garchomp was taken out of the equation on that turn 4 burn and is never needed again anyway after Jellicent is taken down (its only appearance post-burn was to work Rain up eventually, because with Tyranitar down, the Keldeo just sweeps in Rain). With Lando, DUnk never needs to worry about the burned Garchomp.

To get into Dunk's head, I think with Landorus-T on Fera, he feels confident in just scouting out the moveset. Feraligatr is at -1 from Intimidate and he can see if he Ice Punches with Jellicent. In fact, rereading the log, I hadn't even noticed the -1 Intimidate the first time, giving Fera only +1 after SD. If anything, that just makes the case stronger that he had Crunch and is desperate on making sure he can kill Jellicent with it. Having seen that, DUnk can stay in and Wisp if he wants (although, I really just prefer switching there with how pivotal Jellicent is) if he's confident the Feraligatr is coming out. But like I said, this just makes a stronger case that he has Crunch because he was willing to Swords Dance again despite taking damage. Hindsights 20/20 but this should have been a tell-tale sign for DUnk to get the hell out of there if he is bothering to Swords Dance again. If he can't hit Jellicent, then he is switching out anyway so your switching won't affect anything.

**Pocket** · Mar 17th, 2013, 1:23:30 AM

Great thread, kd24! Also, thanks for linking to your video commentaries, Bad Ass, I enjoyed the listen as much as I enjoyed reading your post (I also watched your commentary on game 2 lmao).

I don't have much to add other than to say that I am not a fan of DUnk's team choice. I imagine he was attempting some bulky balance team that can take hits from anything, but the major flaws in such defensive teams are the lack of firepower. This allows dangerous set-up sweeper (see Feraligatr) to set up pretty much for free and rip huge holes into the team's defenses, allowing the rest of gr8astard's offensive core to invade the open wound caused by the gator bite to further destroy DUnk. DestinyUnknown's balance approach makes it much harder to pressure the opponent and are vulnerable to be smacked around by being forced easily into the defensive. This sort of playstyle tends to encourage passive play, which usually is an uphill battle in a metagame with powerful nukes everywhere. gr8stard certainly outplayed DUnk, but he also ended up building a better team that improved his odds at winning substantially.

Frochtejohgurt · Mar 17th, 2013, 5:56:21 AM

I don't quite agree with that, Pocket. Dunk had excellent way of pressureing gra8's team with everything except of Gatr being walled by Landorus+Heatran+Jellicent. If dunk had managed to a layer of spikes down, he could have forced Gatr out with Celebi everytime it tried to set up and worn it down that way.
Also dunk was using BKC's team, he had talked about in the sand stall thread. Not using his own teams and losing despite team advantage by falling for an obvious bluff, shows who was the better player.

BKC · Mar 17th, 2013, 6:22:57 AM

don't rip on dunk for using my sand stall, i gave him to him. that team covers almost everything but clearly it doesn't do so hot against feraligatr! it also doesn't "give free set up opportunities to everything" like pocket seems to be insinuating (i'd know i've been using it for a year) but i digress. regardless i think dunk could've won but it's already been pointed out that he didn't analyze risk vs reward as well as he could've.

**PK Gaming** · Mar 17th, 2013, 1:29:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat BKC

don't rip on dunk for using my sand stall, i gave him to him. that team covers almost everything but clearly it doesn't do so hot against feraligatr! it also doesn't "give free set up opportunities to everything" like pocket seems to be insinuating (i'd know i've been using it for a year) but i digress. regardless i think dunk could've won but it's already been pointed out that he didn't analyze risk vs reward as well as he could've.

That could be why he used Feraligatr in the first place!

I love it when high level players use unconventional threats in serious matches. It's one of my favorite aspects about competitive Pokemon, and imo of the things that separates a top tier player from regular player. I don't want to hype Feraligatr, but it really is a near perfect choice for gr8's team, since it lures out Jellicent and takes it out so that Keldeo can have a significantly easier time sweeping.

Deluks917 · Mar 17th, 2013, 1:35:47 PM

I think Dunk had a team advanatage. Idk why anyone would blame this on BKC's team. Celebi + Jellicent + Weather is alot of coverage against Water HO. Politoed was choiced. I think if he had been more conservative he good have stalled gr8 out and won the weather war followed by winning. Gr8's team had no longevity.

Everything except feraligatr was hard walled once garchomp got burnt.

Houndoomsday · Mar 17th, 2013, 2:19:19 PM

One thing I noticed that gave gr8 an advantage was the start. In the first three turns, gr8 gets off stealth rocks and weakens the opposing Celebi, while Dunk gets nothing.

**Pocket** · Mar 17th, 2013, 2:42:41 PM

Ah so it's BKC's team, hehehe. My post still stands that defensive teams have a lot of difficulty building momentum, and there are a handful of nukes in OU that this team pretty much auto-loses to (like Duggy Sun, mixed Kyurem, and Landorus - TTar offensive cores). Kinda risky in a tour finals imo. At least with a team possessing a strong offensive core, one can hope to destroy opponents' team before they can execute their offensive gameplan.

BKC · Mar 17th, 2013, 3:33:33 PM

it doesn't auto-lose to duggy sun or mixed kyurem... they're issues, sure, but not auto-losses. i'll give you landorus though cause he's a broken motherfucker especially paired with ttar!

~~Frog~~ · Mar 17th, 2013, 6:30:41 PM

I have the same sandstall team as DU, except I have latias over celebi, which would have svaed him maybe. Also cool to see gr8 naming one of his mons after me (lol).

The two points in this match that really cost Dunk where the HP bug keldeo and crunch feraligatr. You can't say that it was unexpected, looking at gr8's team jellicent would really mess it up if used correctly, so running crunch gatr really helped him out. Dunk's lead choice was honestly poor, expecting a chomp lead was a little too obvious. Another mistake was not double switching to tyranitar against feraligatr. It might seem weird to do against a mon with fighting and water attacks, but he would either crunch or switch (into celebi). From there gr8 would be in a hard place. If he superpowered landorus-t or celebi could sponge it easily. If he went for swords dance gatr could be left vulnerable to CB stone edge from tyranitar.

Pwnemon · Mar 17th, 2013, 9:47:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat BKC

i'll give you landorus though cause he's a broken motherfucker especially paired with ttar!

team built before bw2 released losing to SF Landorus? no way

gr8 definitely played better in this match, but i know how much unfamiliarity with a team can do that to you.

DestinyUnknown · Mar 18th, 2013, 10:18:14 AM

Ok since I was playing the battle I guess it could be interesting that I post or something... The first thing is that the matchup wasn't good at all for me, it was pretty difficult to win from start and while I definitely could have played better there was not much I could do. The main problem was Feraligatr, because I knew it had Crunch, but I couldn't use Celebi as a counter because it was -Spd and I supposed Gr8astard was running more speed on Feraligatr (more than enough to outspeed Celebi) and losing Celebi definitely wasn't the best option. And well, if you look at the teams again, there was little I could do against HP Bug Keldeo + Crunch Feraligatr + Swords Dance Garchomp, it was a pretty bad matchup and that's all there is to say, I find it kind of funny that if I had used the other team I had I mind I would have won without the need to predict any turn (but yeah, that's how BW2 works, this metagame is a piece of shit)

Ojama · Mar 18th, 2013, 11:40:12 AM

I also have the same team as DestinyUnknown and I was really surprised that DU lost this game. In my opinion, DU has the Team advantage. I'm probably the one who used this playstyle the most so I know what I'm talking about : DU should have won this game.

The biggest issue was Garchomp and he even burned it very quickly so I thought it was game over. DU made some mistakes, especially against Feraligatr.

Quote:

Start of turn 9
Gr8astard's Alligator used Swords Dance!
Gr8astard's Alligator's Attack sharply rose!
DestinyUnknown's Forretress used Volt Switch!
It's super effective!
Gr8astard's Alligator lost 23% of its health!
DestinyUnknown called Forretress back!
DestinyUnknown sent out Jellicent!
Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Jellicent!
Rain continues to fall.
DestinyUnknown's Jellicent restored a little HP using its Leftovers!
Picollo is watching the battle.

+

Quote:

Start of turn 6
DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T used U-turn!
Gr8astard's Alligator lost 20% of its health!
DestinyUnknown called Landorus-T back!
DestinyUnknown sent out Jellicent!
Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Jellicent!
Gr8astard's Alligator used Swords Dance!
Gr8astard's Alligator's Attack sharply rose!
Rain continues to fall.
DestinyUnknown's Jellicent restored a little HP using its Leftovers!

So DU knew Landorus-T was faster, why did he send out Jellicent against Feraligatr ? It obviously has Crunch, who doesn't run Crunch on Feraligatr ? By sending Landorus-T after Volt Switching, Feraligatr would have been at +1 and so wouldn't have been able to kill Landorus-T with Aqua Jet +1. He also could have sent Tyranitar to set up the Sandstorm and then switched out to Forretress for example (Fera was at 50% and so is 2HKO'd by Voltswitch + SandStorm). Saccing Jellicent was the biggest mistake here, Jellicent is Keldeo's main counter in the Team, it is not Celebi because of HP Bug. Unless it's SubMind Jirachi (and so Heatran + Tar wall it), Jellicent walled almost Gr8's whole Team, especially with Chomper burned. Gr8 didn't even have a spinner which DU should have exploited as quickly as possible.

DU clearly had this game won only by matchup but Gr8 did well and DU really missplayed against Feraligatr.

DestinyUnknown · Mar 18th, 2013, 1:51:49 PM

The problem is that +1 Aqua Jet did kill Landorus-T, that's why I couldn't send it and call it a day. Same goes for Forretress in case he had Waterfall as it kills at +2 (and in the case he didn't, he could just Swords Dance again while I used Volt Switch and be at +4 and in Torrent range). And yeah, I knew Landorus-T was faster but I had no clue about what his speed was (and it was, most likely, faster than Celebi because Celebi was -Spd as I already said)

Princess Bri · Mar 18th, 2013, 2:28:50 PM

Why was your Celebi -spe...

Ojama · Mar 18th, 2013, 2:52:46 PM

For U-Turn, it's stronger with a Sassy nature and it's always cool to hit U-Turn after your opponent to keep the momentum.

Princess Bri · Mar 18th, 2013, 3:10:09 PM

Fast BandTar, Scizor, and in this case DU feared Feraligatr would now outspeed with a -Spe nature. U-turn gains some power, but it's uninvested and unSTABbed. Not a wise teambuilding decision imo.

Zephir · Mar 18th, 2013, 9:10:32 PM

Actually the "low" damages that uturn did to Fera could give you a hint about his bulky spread (if that is adamant LandoT) but in the heat of the battle thats another story.

ToF · Mar 18th, 2013, 10:34:04 PM

this battle isnt even worth an analysis to be honest. no ones learning anything from this particular battle because, to be quite honest, du should have won the game. he had a hard counter to everything on the other dudes team. gr8 is known to be a lucky player on the ladder, but he basically got handed game 1 on a platter and he took advantage of misplays on du's part so he deserved to win the game, and he won it clean which is rare in a fnials game.

the game was over from turn 1. du should have led celebi because it had a favorable matchup against everything on gr8s team. that or tyranitar because tyranitar i bet was banded and could probably have won on turn 1 (stone edge / pursuit mindgame turn 1 and it was likely over for gr8). landorus was a horrible turn 1 pivot (why would you lead with something that has a horrible matchup against rain).

as for the actual battle, because celebi was crippled turn 1 and wasn't given a chance to recover, it was gg. feraligatr could have swept the entire team if gr8 decided to use aqua jet on celebi (i think it was a ko, don't quote me). garchomp could have been countered by landorus, and because there was nothing else physical that could have whittled away landorus (like a terrakion or scizor), it wasn't as big of a threat as people are making it out to be.

hazards + smart switching without taking risks would have won the game for du. gr8 is known to take risks and overpredict, however, so could have went either way actually midgame, but there was no possibility for du to even control this game after turn 1. theres your analysis.

Mar 16th, 2013, 4:22:55 PM	#1
kd24 Surprise Mother Fucker Moderator Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 4,769 HOME	Smogon Tournament Finals Game 1 Analysis I'm just going to preface this with a warning, if you use this thread to complain about OST, your post will get deleted. A lot of us were unhappy with how things turned out but this thread's purpose is to discuss Game 1. The idea of analyzing matches isn't something I'm a great fan of, but I think analyzing competitive matches of a high level of play gives you access to metagame trends and decisions players are making. You can use this knowledge for your own teams going forward and I think it's something we can really learn from. So we're going to see how this goes. The point of this is going to respectfully critique or comment on Game 1 of the Official Smogon Tournament Finals. It was actually a great match showcasing some things you should keep in mind as players and I'll provide my comments below the log. Gr8astard: Vs. Destiny Unknown Log of Destiny Unknown vs Gr8astard Battle between gr8astard and DestinyUnknown is underway! Tier: Standard OU Mode: Singles Rule: Unrated Rule: Sleep Clause Rule: Species Clause Rule: Wifi Battle Rule: Self-KO Clause gr8astard sent out Frog! (Politoed) DestinyUnknown sent out Landorus-T! DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T intimidates gr8astard's Frog! Gr8astard's Frog's Attack fell! gr8astard's Frog's Drizzle made it rain! Start of turn 1 DestinyUnknown called Landorus-T back! DestinyUnknown sent out Celebi! Gr8astard's Frog used Ice Beam! It's super effective! DestinyUnknown's Celebi lost 56% of its health! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Celebi restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Start of turn 2 gr8astard called Frog back! gr8astard sent out Onion! (Celebi) DestinyUnknown called Celebi back! DestinyUnknown sent out Jellicent! Start of turn 3 DestinyUnknown called Jellicent back! DestinyUnknown sent out Heatran! Gr8astard's Onion used Stealth Rock! Pointed stones float in the air around DestinyUnknown's team! Rain continues to fall. Start of turn 4 Gr8astard's Onion used U-turn! It's not very effective... DestinyUnknown's Heatran lost 3% of its health! gr8astard called Onion back! gr8astard sent out Shark! (Garchomp) DestinyUnknown's Heatran used Lava Plume! It's not very effective... Gr8astard's Shark lost 9% of its health! Gr8astard's Shark was burned! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Heatran restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Gr8astard's Shark was hurt by its burn! Start of turn 5 gr8astard called Shark back! gr8astard sent out Alligator! (Feraligatr) DestinyUnknown called Heatran back! DestinyUnknown sent out Landorus-T! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T! DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T intimidates gr8astard's Alligator! Gr8astard's Alligator's Attack fell! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Start of turn 6 DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T used U-turn! Gr8astard's Alligator lost 20% of its health! DestinyUnknown called Landorus-T back! DestinyUnknown sent out Jellicent! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Jellicent! Gr8astard's Alligator used Swords Dance! Gr8astard's Alligator's Attack sharply rose! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Jellicent restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Start of turn 7 gr8astard called Alligator back! gr8astard sent out Onion! (Celebi) DestinyUnknown's Jellicent used Will-O-Wisp! Gr8astard's Onion was burned! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Jellicent restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Gr8astard's Onion was hurt by its burn! Start of turn 8 DestinyUnknown called Jellicent back! DestinyUnknown sent out Forretress! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Forretress! Gr8astard's Onion used U-turn! It's not very effective... DestinyUnknown's Forretress lost 2% of its health! High Impulse is watching the battle. gr8astard called Onion back! gr8astard sent out Alligator! (Feraligatr) Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Forretress restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Start of turn 9 Gr8astard's Alligator used Swords Dance! Gr8astard's Alligator's Attack sharply rose! DestinyUnknown's Forretress used Volt Switch! It's super effective! Gr8astard's Alligator lost 23% of its health! DestinyUnknown called Forretress back! DestinyUnknown sent out Jellicent! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Jellicent! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Jellicent restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Picollo is watching the battle. Start of turn 10 Gr8astard's Alligator used Crunch! It's super effective! DestinyUnknown's Jellicent lost 93% of its health! DestinyUnknown's Jellicent fainted! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown sent out Landorus-T! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T! DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T intimidates gr8astard's Alligator! Gr8astard's Alligator's Attack fell! Start of turn 11 DestinyUnknown called Landorus-T back! DestinyUnknown sent out Tyranitar! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Tyranitar! DestinyUnknown's Tyranitar's Sand Stream whipped up a sandstorm! Gr8astard's Alligator used Swords Dance! Gr8astard's Alligator's Attack sharply rose! The sandstorm rages. Gr8astard's Alligator is buffeted by the sandstorm! Start of turn 12 Gr8astard's Alligator used Aqua Jet! It's super effective! DestinyUnknown's Tyranitar lost 87% of its health! DestinyUnknown's Tyranitar fainted! The sandstorm rages. Gr8astard's Alligator is buffeted by the sandstorm! DestinyUnknown sent out Celebi! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Celebi! Start of turn 13 DestinyUnknown's Celebi used Giga Drain! It's super effective! Gr8astard's Alligator lost 44% of its health! Gr8astard's Alligator fainted! Gr8astard's Alligator had its energy drained! The sandstorm rages. DestinyUnknown's Celebi is buffeted by the sandstorm! DestinyUnknown's Celebi restored a little HP using its Leftovers! gr8astard sent out Pony! (Keldeo) Start of turn 14 Gr8astard's Pony used Hidden Power! It's super effective! DestinyUnknown's Celebi lost 57% of its health! DestinyUnknown's Celebi fainted! The sandstorm rages. Gr8astard's Pony is buffeted by the sandstorm! DestinyUnknown sent out Forretress! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Forretress! Start of turn 15 Gr8astard's Pony used Surf! DestinyUnknown's Forretress lost 63% of its health! DestinyUnknown's Forretress used Volt Switch! It's super effective! Gr8astard's Pony lost 22% of its health! DestinyUnknown called Forretress back! DestinyUnknown sent out Heatran! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Heatran! The sandstorm rages. Gr8astard's Pony is buffeted by the sandstorm! DestinyUnknown's Heatran restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Start of turn 16 gr8astard called Pony back! gr8astard sent out Shark! (Garchomp) DestinyUnknown's Heatran used Protect! But it failed! The sandstorm rages. DestinyUnknown's Heatran restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Gr8astard's Shark was hurt by its burn! Start of turn 17 DestinyUnknown called Heatran back! DestinyUnknown sent out Landorus-T! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T! DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T intimidates gr8astard's Shark! Gr8astard's Shark's Attack fell! Gr8astard's Shark used Earthquake! It had no effect on DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T! The sandstorm rages. DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Gr8astard's Shark was hurt by its burn! Start of turn 18 gr8astard called Shark back! gr8astard sent out Frog! (Politoed) gr8astard's Frog's Drizzle made it rain! DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T used Earthquake! Gr8astard's Frog lost 65% of its health! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Start of turn 19 DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T used Earthquake! Gr8astard's Frog lost 34% of its health! Gr8astard's Frog fainted! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T restored a little HP using its Leftovers! gr8astard sent out Pony! (Keldeo) Start of turn 20 DestinyUnknown called Landorus-T back! DestinyUnknown sent out Forretress! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Forretress! Gr8astard's Pony used Surf! DestinyUnknown's Forretress lost 3% of its health! DestinyUnknown's Forretress fainted! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown sent out Heatran! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Heatran! Start of turn 21 DestinyUnknown's Heatran used Protect! DestinyUnknown's Heatran protected itself! Gr8astard's Pony used Surf! DestinyUnknown's Heatran protected itself! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown's Heatran restored a little HP using its Leftovers! Start of turn 22 Gr8astard's Pony used Surf! It's super effective! DestinyUnknown's Heatran lost 93% of its health! DestinyUnknown's Heatran fainted! Rain continues to fall. DestinyUnknown sent out Landorus-T! Pointed stones dug into DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T! DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T intimidates gr8astard's Pony! Gr8astard's Pony's Attack fell! Start of turn 23 Gr8astard's Pony used Surf! It's super effective! A critical hit! DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T lost 74% of its health! DestinyUnknown's Landorus-T fainted! gr8astard won the battle! Celebi The first thing I'd note is that both teams shared only 1 Pokemon: Celebi. I think more and more that you have to consider this a Pokemon that is almost staple now. The most broken threats in the tier are sharing Celebi as a common weakness (Landorus-I, Keldeo, and Breloom spring to mind). How much did Celebi influence the teams here? Gr8 was using a Hidden Power Bug Keldeo solely for opposing Celebi. It's one thing to see that as a laddering decision but as a tournament decision, it's a risk he takes on the theory that Celebi is too good to just hope that it won't be used. When Gr8 brought in his Feraligatr, Celebi was there to at least stop it on DU's side. It's just so good as a general stop to what they're doing just based on it's typing alone. Why aren't you using this?! I just feel like that without Celebi, I'm going to get swept by random threats right now way too often, specifically on ladder but in any high level of play. Risk/Reward I might be wrong on this one, but I'm not seeing the reward to DestinyUnknown's risky Jellicent play vs Feraligatr. When Jellicent had switched in to Feraligatr the first time, the Feraligatr switched out to Celebi. But Feraligatr comes in again and uses Swords Dance. If I'm DU, I have to be asking myself "Why would he waste a turn of set up once again?" Chalking "it switched out of Jellicent the first time" doesn't seem like smart management considering how pivotal Jellicent is to this team. It provides a stone cold wall to Keldeo, non Thunder Jirachi, Politoed, Garchomp, and Feraligatr if it doesn't have Crunch later. Gr8 can easily be thinking that he doesn't want to reveal Crunch on the chance that Jellicent switched the first time around. With how key Jellicent was to DU's side, I think he could have formed a gameplan to win surrounding Landorus/Heatran + Jellicent for Gr8's entire team, while keeping Celebi and sacrifices in reserve for Feraligatr if he does have Crunch for Jellicent. At worst, he sacrifices one Pokemon to Feraligatr to ensure his board position and have a constant string of checks and counters for Gr8's team. From there, he just has to play around Feraligatr, rather than playing into it. It goes to a key point that should be established: How am I going to win this game? Jellicent might have been the stone cold nuts to Feraligatr, but its role against the entire team was too high to value it that cheaply. Also consider the fact that Gr8's team could theoretically struggle with Jellicent so much if in fact his Feraligatr doesn't have Crunch. Would Gr8 really have brought a team like that? Specifically with Keldeo? It seems obvious to me that Feraligatr would be a lure in some way to kill Jellicent and allow Keldeo to move forward. I might be entirely off base here so please if anyone wants to correct me don't shy away. Hopefully I can get DUNK and Gr8 to commentate on some of their thoughts and rationale behind the match but this will serve as a starting point of analysis for us to see what might be on the upward trend in OU (Celebi seems to be the key mon moving forward IMO). __________________ My YouTube Channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/TheLemondrop7

Mar 16th, 2013, 4:42:44 PM	#2
Bad Ass renounce all sin and vice! Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,897	i put up a video that records my live thoughts as it happened. this is without any knowledge of game 2 stuff or any real analysis. i, too, thought that gr8 had crunch even when he switched out, since that is a common trap. you can see it here (2 parts because i was interrupted, sorry): part 1: http://youtu.be/fNh9tT381lo part 2: http://youtu.be/INpIMDDVuL0 other than that, i totally agree with you. gr8 was VERY jellicent weak, and if dunk could keep sand up (not hard when gr8 doesnt have a spinner), even jirachi would get walled by heatran and landorus-t. that was a poor analysis of risk vs reward, and i'd call it a poor play by dunk rather than a good bluff by gr8. i mean, it was obviously smart of him to switch the first time, but the key tells such as him swords dancing and the rest of his team being entirely unable to handle jellicent should have tipped off dunk a little more. although, kudos to him for seeing a path to victory and executing it. that ice beam turn 1 was a good play because it meant that celebi couldn't switch back in to eat feraligatr waterfall. i think he should have either just gone to jelli or recovered up instead of doubling, anyway, because celebi was pretty important to him (before he knew keld had hp bug) overall gr8 definitely played better and deserved game 1 __________________ check out my youtube channel! i put up lots of good narrated matches between battlers you actually care about! tournament matches, finals, and any battle i deem entertaining. saddened by the lack of warstories on smogon? enjoy quality narration from a cute southern belle? spend your friday nights analyzing pokemon matches? then my youtube channel might just be for you...

Mar 16th, 2013, 5:02:26 PM	#3
MikeDecIsHere Laying the Groundwork for the Pound Work Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,833 Staten Island Mentor	I think that Gr8 switched out the first time in order to see if DU would scout for Crunch with Forretress or something, since Jelli-Tran really put a huge halt in Gr8's team, although Expert Belt Keldeo could have caught DU off guard later in the game, though Jelli would have been absolutely vital against HP Bug Keldeo The second SD was a huge hint that the Feraligatr had Crunch though, but honestly, nothing on DU's team could really switch into Gatr. He was probably better off Saccing Forretress or something, but oh well. As BadAss said, Hugo played the game better and deserved the win __________________

Mar 16th, 2013, 5:07:21 PM	#4
Soul Fly Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 256 Heil calculus!	Awesome to see the great Celebii reneissance so late into the bw2 metagame. The tornadus-t and and genesect bans have really caused some major upvheals in the tier. The turn 4 burn could really have been a gamebreaker for gr8astard, but that was some beautiful late game prediction. But hats off to DU for totally mitigating and stopping garchomp in it's tracks with continuous pivot pressure from the CelebiLando U-turn core I don't know about you people but IMHO Jellicent was thrown away too cheaply considering he singlehandedly walls/tanks half the opposition (and potentially Feraligatr if not for crunch) Lategame Keldeo sweep was standard fare nothing remarkable. Can anyone explain the clutch play involving Jellicent. WHY would you want to switch it onto a Set up Feraligatr since Crunch is a standard on such sets? __________________ Birkal: NO ONE ESCAPES THE SWIRLIE

Mar 17th, 2013, 1:23:30 AM	#8
Pocket Bakuman ;< Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 7,170 Bergenfield	Great thread, kd24! Also, thanks for linking to your video commentaries, Bad Ass, I enjoyed the listen as much as I enjoyed reading your post (I also watched your commentary on game 2 lmao). I don't have much to add other than to say that I am not a fan of DUnk's team choice. I imagine he was attempting some bulky balance team that can take hits from anything, but the major flaws in such defensive teams are the lack of firepower. This allows dangerous set-up sweeper (see Feraligatr) to set up pretty much for free and rip huge holes into the team's defenses, allowing the rest of gr8astard's offensive core to invade the open wound caused by the gator bite to further destroy DUnk. DestinyUnknown's balance approach makes it much harder to pressure the opponent and are vulnerable to be smacked around by being forced easily into the defensive. This sort of playstyle tends to encourage passive play, which usually is an uphill battle in a metagame with powerful nukes everywhere. gr8stard certainly outplayed DUnk, but he also ended up building a better team that improved his odds at winning substantially. __________________ Dark Horse Project: Conquer the Ladder! \| Word of Wisdom for Trainers \| Smogon Doubles: Let's Make It Official!

Mar 16th, 2013, 5:12:15 PM	#5
Lavos Spawn our state of zen Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 2,167 Mentor	wasn't really a match you'd expect from the finalists of the ost9. gr8astard was clearly the better player in this particular battle, and despite what i believe was a slightly advantageous matchup in destinyunknown's favor, he managed to make some very high level double-switches and predictions to turn the game around. it also helped that dunk threw his jellicent away for nothing, the one pokemon that was really stopping gr8 from sweeping with feraligatr. but yeah i think when it comes right down to it gr8 just outplayed his opp and won in a deserving manner. i would advise people reading this thread to go over the first 10 turns or so, they show real mastery by gr8 in positioning himself to start knocking stuff out.

Mar 16th, 2013, 5:30:59 PM	#6
Neliel Victors must always speak of the way the world should be, not the way it is. Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 474 Mentor	If you ever used feraligatr, you know that crunch is still a move that it can run to bypass jellicent, not standard but usable. I considered it even before keldeo was released in the past, so if you now see a team with keldeo and feraligatr, its pretty much obvious that feraligatr has crunch.

Mar 17th, 2013, 5:56:21 AM	#9
Frochtejohgurt Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 81	I don't quite agree with that, Pocket. Dunk had excellent way of pressureing gra8's team with everything except of Gatr being walled by Landorus+Heatran+Jellicent. If dunk had managed to a layer of spikes down, he could have forced Gatr out with Celebi everytime it tried to set up and worn it down that way. Also dunk was using BKC's team, he had talked about in the sand stall thread. Not using his own teams and losing despite team advantage by falling for an obvious bluff, shows who was the better player. __________________ Früchtejoghurt*

Mar 17th, 2013, 6:22:57 AM	#10
BKC bringer of torture Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,222 Prague	don't rip on dunk for using my sand stall, i gave him to him. that team covers almost everything but clearly it doesn't do so hot against feraligatr! it also doesn't "give free set up opportunities to everything" like pocket seems to be insinuating (i'd know i've been using it for a year) but i digress. regardless i think dunk could've won but it's already been pointed out that he didn't analyze risk vs reward as well as he could've. __________________ RYM

Mar 17th, 2013, 1:35:47 PM	#12
Deluks917 Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 247	I think Dunk had a team advanatage. Idk why anyone would blame this on BKC's team. Celebi + Jellicent + Weather is alot of coverage against Water HO. Politoed was choiced. I think if he had been more conservative he good have stalled gr8 out and won the weather war followed by winning. Gr8's team had no longevity. Everything except feraligatr was hard walled once garchomp got burnt.

Mar 17th, 2013, 2:19:19 PM	#13
Houndoomsday Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 516 RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL RYDEL	One thing I noticed that gave gr8 an advantage was the start. In the first three turns, gr8 gets off stealth rocks and weakens the opposing Celebi, while Dunk gets nothing. __________________ Team___________Ref <Hdoom> ASB is the best drug <Bblkal> more like <Bblkal> asb is the slowest drug

Mar 17th, 2013, 2:42:41 PM	#14
Pocket Bakuman ;< Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 7,170 Bergenfield	Ah so it's BKC's team, hehehe. My post still stands that defensive teams have a lot of difficulty building momentum, and there are a handful of nukes in OU that this team pretty much auto-loses to (like Duggy Sun, mixed Kyurem, and Landorus - TTar offensive cores). Kinda risky in a tour finals imo. At least with a team possessing a strong offensive core, one can hope to destroy opponents' team before they can execute their offensive gameplan. __________________ Dark Horse Project: Conquer the Ladder! \| Word of Wisdom for Trainers \| Smogon Doubles: Let's Make It Official! Last edited by Pocket; Mar 17th, 2013 at 3:11:30 PM.

Mar 17th, 2013, 3:33:33 PM	#15
BKC bringer of torture Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,222 Prague	it doesn't auto-lose to duggy sun or mixed kyurem... they're issues, sure, but not auto-losses. i'll give you landorus though cause he's a broken motherfucker especially paired with ttar! __________________ RYM

Mar 17th, 2013, 6:30:41 PM	#16
~~Frog~~ Banned deucer. Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 94	I have the same sandstall team as DU, except I have latias over celebi, which would have svaed him maybe. Also cool to see gr8 naming one of his mons after me (lol). The two points in this match that really cost Dunk where the HP bug keldeo and crunch feraligatr. You can't say that it was unexpected, looking at gr8's team jellicent would really mess it up if used correctly, so running crunch gatr really helped him out. Dunk's lead choice was honestly poor, expecting a chomp lead was a little too obvious. Another mistake was not double switching to tyranitar against feraligatr. It might seem weird to do against a mon with fighting and water attacks, but he would either crunch or switch (into celebi). From there gr8 would be in a hard place. If he superpowered landorus-t or celebi could sponge it easily. If he went for swords dance gatr could be left vulnerable to CB stone edge from tyranitar.

Mar 18th, 2013, 10:18:14 AM	#18
DestinyUnknown Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,099 Spain	Ok since I was playing the battle I guess it could be interesting that I post or something... The first thing is that the matchup wasn't good at all for me, it was pretty difficult to win from start and while I definitely could have played better there was not much I could do. The main problem was Feraligatr, because I knew it had Crunch, but I couldn't use Celebi as a counter because it was -Spd and I supposed Gr8astard was running more speed on Feraligatr (more than enough to outspeed Celebi) and losing Celebi definitely wasn't the best option. And well, if you look at the teams again, there was little I could do against HP Bug Keldeo + Crunch Feraligatr + Swords Dance Garchomp, it was a pretty bad matchup and that's all there is to say, I find it kind of funny that if I had used the other team I had I mind I would have won without the need to predict any turn (but yeah, that's how BW2 works, this metagame is a piece of shit) __________________

Mar 18th, 2013, 1:51:49 PM	#20
DestinyUnknown Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,099 Spain	The problem is that +1 Aqua Jet did kill Landorus-T, that's why I couldn't send it and call it a day. Same goes for Forretress in case he had Waterfall as it kills at +2 (and in the case he didn't, he could just Swords Dance again while I used Volt Switch and be at +4 and in Torrent range). And yeah, I knew Landorus-T was faster but I had no clue about what his speed was (and it was, most likely, faster than Celebi because Celebi was -Spd as I already said) __________________

Mar 18th, 2013, 2:28:50 PM	#21
Princess Bri COME FORTH Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 1,066	Why was your Celebi -spe...

Mar 18th, 2013, 2:52:46 PM	#22
Ojama If just for one day I wish I could disappear Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,368 Too close to see	For U-Turn, it's stronger with a Sassy nature and it's always cool to hit U-Turn after your opponent to keep the momentum. __________________ Smell ya later

Mar 18th, 2013, 3:10:09 PM	#23
Princess Bri COME FORTH Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 1,066	Fast BandTar, Scizor, and in this case DU feared Feraligatr would now outspeed with a -Spe nature. U-turn gains some power, but it's uninvested and unSTABbed. Not a wise teambuilding decision imo.

Mar 18th, 2013, 9:10:32 PM	#24
Zephir Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 179 France	Actually the "low" damages that uturn did to Fera could give you a hint about his bulky spread (if that is adamant LandoT) but in the heat of the battle thats another story.

Mar 18th, 2013, 10:34:04 PM	#25
ToF Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 2,029	this battle isnt even worth an analysis to be honest. no ones learning anything from this particular battle because, to be quite honest, du should have won the game. he had a hard counter to everything on the other dudes team. gr8 is known to be a lucky player on the ladder, but he basically got handed game 1 on a platter and he took advantage of misplays on du's part so he deserved to win the game, and he won it clean which is rare in a fnials game. the game was over from turn 1. du should have led celebi because it had a favorable matchup against everything on gr8s team. that or tyranitar because tyranitar i bet was banded and could probably have won on turn 1 (stone edge / pursuit mindgame turn 1 and it was likely over for gr8). landorus was a horrible turn 1 pivot (why would you lead with something that has a horrible matchup against rain). as for the actual battle, because celebi was crippled turn 1 and wasn't given a chance to recover, it was gg. feraligatr could have swept the entire team if gr8 decided to use aqua jet on celebi (i think it was a ko, don't quote me). garchomp could have been countered by landorus, and because there was nothing else physical that could have whittled away landorus (like a terrakion or scizor), it wasn't as big of a threat as people are making it out to be. hazards + smart switching without taking risks would have won the game for du. gr8 is known to take risks and overpredict, however, so could have went either way actually midgame, but there was no possibility for du to even control this game after turn 1. theres your analysis.