I didnt want to think too hard on this and I didn't take it too seriously to get out a piece of paper to make sure it was correct, but i think he was unclear in saying that he would use an everstone on the 31/x/x/31/31/31(call it parent A) with the newly bred 31/x/31/31/31/31 parent (call it parent B).

parent A i would assume had the original correct nature, while parent B does not, but since everstone negates that by putting everstone on parent A and destiny knot on parent B. So at this point he's corrrect in saying he has a 1/12 chance (1/6 * 1/2)

He then says once he has two 31/x/31/31/31/31 parents he has a 1/6 chance to make a new one.

I believe his calculations are correct UP UNTIL the point where you start calculating Gender rates, which actually do matter. It gets a bit more complicated when you start including gender and it would also depend on which gender you managed to find first, and i would need a pen and pencil and calculator to find out the exact rates.

The reason You are incorrect in using the simple multiplication method is because we do not have to multiply the 1/10 and 1/12 for EACH Scenario of the 10 (hard to explain in words at 2am) im saying there are 10 different scenarios that can happen, but if you get the first 9 unfavorable scenarios, you are not using those scenarios to start breeding for the next stage of breeding (1/12 probability scenarios)

you would wait for that 1/10 scenario to occur in which you can then start searching for the 1/12 scenario. A better estimate would be to add the 10 and 12 together and say your probability is 1/22 which is ABSOLUTELY INCORRECT, but it would be more accurate then multiplying 1/10 and 1/12 which is 1/120. I would need a pen and paper, and still probably get the correct probability incorrect, just cause it starts getting confusing.

I dunno if any of this made sense, im sure it wasnt formatted or worded well, because im tired and kind of rambling, but i hope it helps

Last edited: Oct 25, 2013