Serious Crimean war (Russia seizing Ukraine). Discussion and thoughts?

What do you believe the outcome will be?


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I'm not forgetting at all. Crimea can do what it wants. I think you're forgetting that the fact that they've moved into the rest of Ukraine as well against their will could be considered an act of war. Tell me; how has Russia NOT seized Ukraine? I think taking over with military units counts as 'seizing'.
Russia hasn't seized Ukraine because it hasn't gone further than Crimea (contrary to what you say, they have not moved into 'the rest of Ukraine', does not run Ukraine's government, and has not fired anything more than a warning shot in this conflict. By no sane stretch of the imagination can you or anybody else say Russia has seized Ukraine, as they patently have not. I'm not sure how much more clearly I can state this, so here goes:

Russia has not moved into the rest of Ukraine

I'm not sure if you want a debate or not because you're clearly inventing facts and abusing well-held definitions.
 
Crimea is part of Ukraine. Russia has basically invaded Crimea, so yes, Russia has "seized" land that legally belongs to Ukraine. I doubt the Russians go any further into Ukraine itself, but the fact remains that Russia placed troops into Ukraine without authorization from that country.
 
I don't think this will escalate into something as serious as World War III - I still remember when Russia tried to invade Georgia and nothing rose up out of that.

Unless Russia does something stupidly drastic like a nuclear attack or something, I don't think anyone will take the risk of intervention. Putin's a dick, yes, but it's not worth throwing away more human lives than necessary over.



The Domino theory is a pretty dangerous mindset when it comes to international matters. Look what happened in Vietnam. As Pro-American as I am, even I agree that was just a generally stupid thing of us to do.
The problem is, the domino theory is not a policy. It is a proven possible change of events. In Vietnam, our stupidity was in not calling in our allies during the war, and leaving South Vietnam in the first place. Georgia is different, it has only enough allies to get Russia to back off from the war. Ukraine has enough allies to defeat Russia 2/3 of the time. However, Putin probably thinks "Some people think we have a bad chance of winning; however, personally I give us one in three chance of winning a war, which America would never start."
Anyway, why has nobody mentioned that NEO-NAZIS overthrew them and want to join the EU, which Germany, the country that banned the swastika, plays a major role in? Just thought I'd throw that out there.
 
first things first, whoever says this is WWIII is a fucking idiot. Russia absorbed Georgia a few years ago and this is essentially the same thing. Putin's already out of the spotlight with the plane crash as well and unless he makes major advances on the Ukraine then he's going to get away with it. Putin is not similar to Hitler at all. The most ethnocentric quote he has is saying the breakup of the soviet union was the biggest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. He is by no means attempting mass liquidation (except for gays.) It's on a much smaller scale, read Mein Kampf and you will see what I mean.
1. Agreed on this not turning into WW3, nukes have rendered WW3 implausible.
2. Russia did not absorb Georgia, it absorbed south Ossetia and Abkhazia which are relatively small areas, but yes it's essentially the same as the Crimean Peninsula.
3. He's going to "get away with it" spotlight or no. The only thing that would cause Russia to back out at this point is finding the administrative costs are too high for the territory to be worth holding.
4. The Hitler comparison is far too loaded, however the recent events in the Crimean Peninsula are entirely comparable to Anschluss.
5. The plan they're using is to just relocate people rather than kill them, but forced relocation is also a form of ethnic cleansing.
 
1. Agreed on this not turning into WW3, nukes have rendered WW3 implausible.
2. Russia did not absorb Georgia, it absorbed south Ossetia and Abkhazia which are relatively small areas, but yes it's essentially the same as the Crimean Peninsula.
3. He's going to "get away with it" spotlight or no. The only thing that would cause Russia to back out at this point is finding the administrative costs are too high for the territory to be worth holding.
4. The Hitler comparison is far too loaded, however the recent events in the Crimean Peninsula are entirely comparable to Anschluss.
5. The plan they're using is to just relocate people rather than kill them, but forced relocation is also a form of ethnic cleansing.
Nukes are a method of control. The thing is, a war is unlikely, as no countries want to stand up to Russia right now. Their economy is weak, their military strong, and their people indescribable. Idk how this is possible, it's Russia, just don't ask. The 10% radical Muslim population in Crimea could cause problems. Overall, Russia is making moves it can without being outright defiant. They have broken a treaty, however, which could cause problems. Also, the non-lethal shootings by Russian "standard military"(probs really Spëtsnoz) on the Crimean border is a problem. The last time, Muslims hadXes drawn on their houses, and the Soviet Union's secret police would come in and either kill them or forcibly move them to Kazahkstan. Guess what? Some Muslims in Crimea have Xesdrawn on their doors.
 
Russia hasn't seized Ukraine because it hasn't gone further than Crimea (contrary to what you say, they have not moved into 'the rest of Ukraine', does not run Ukraine's government, and has not fired anything more than a warning shot in this conflict. By no sane stretch of the imagination can you or anybody else say Russia has seized Ukraine, as they patently have not. I'm not sure how much more clearly I can state this, so here goes:

Russia has not moved into the rest of Ukraine

I'm not sure if you want a debate or not because you're clearly inventing facts and abusing well-held definitions.
OMFG KID use the internet. Like I'm trying to have a real debate here. Go look this stuff up. I'm serious. Russia literally threatened that they would take military action against Ukraine. They said that almost word for word, except in Russian. Look it up. Russia basically ran Ukraine, everyone knows it, hell they're last president was RUN OUT OF THE COUNTRY because he was literally just doing everything Russia did and said. Cause that's not obvious enough, Ukraine always held close ties and was influenced heavily by Russia, even after they became completely in dependant. If your so picky start your own thread about this instead of bitching about how much more you know than everyone else around here. You don't look smarter. You actually look dumber, and arrogant. So cut the crap, calm your balls, I want your opinion on the subject, not your opinion on how wrong everyone else is. Thank you.
 
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Russia hasn't seized Ukraine because it hasn't gone further than Crimea (contrary to what you say, they have not moved into 'the rest of Ukraine', does not run Ukraine's government, and has not fired anything more than a warning shot in this conflict. By no sane stretch of the imagination can you or anybody else say Russia has seized Ukraine, as they patently have not. I'm not sure how much more clearly I can state this, so here goes:

Russia has not moved into the rest of Ukraine

I'm not sure if you want a debate or not because you're clearly inventing facts and abusing well-held definitions.
Yep. We are inventing facts and somehow "abusing well-held definitions".
Russia has broken a treaty with the U. S., the U. K., and Ukraine. I think there might be consequences.
Just maybe. Russia should not be allowed to publicly flaunt their condescending attitude towards the major powers of the world. Please admit Russia is at fault instead of nit-picking minor problems.
 
Yep. We are inventing facts and somehow "abusing well-held definitions".
Russia has broken a treaty with the U. S., the U. K., and Ukraine. I think there might be consequences.
Just maybe. Russia should not be allowed to publicly flaunt their condescending attitude towards the major powers of the world. Please admit Russia is at fault instead of nit-picking minor problems.
I agree with you so much... My thoughts exactly. Russia crossed a serious line and while I seriously doubt so,etching as drastic as war, there will be both economic and political consequences. In any case, I doubt any of the countries involved in this (North American and European countries mainly) are going to forget this soon, so if I had to guess I'd say this'll leave a mark on their relations for a while, at least trust-wise.
 
OMFG KID use the internet. Like I'm trying to have a real debate here. Go look this stuff up. I'm serious. Russia literally threatened that they would take military action against Ukraine. They said that almost word for word, except in Russian. Look it up. Russia basically ran Ukraine, everyone knows it, hell they're last president was RUN OUT OF THE COUNTRY because he was literally just doing everything Russia did and said. Cause that's not obvious enough, Ukraine always held close ties and was influenced heavily by Russia, even after they became completely in dependant. If your so picky start your own thread about this instead of bitching about how much more you know than everyone else around here. You don't look smarter. You actually look dumber, and arrogant. So cut the crap, calm your balls, I want your opinion on the subject, not your opinion on how wrong everyone else is. Thank you.
You're clearly not trying to hold a debate if you're trying to use evidence you say there's no proof for, you claim that Russia has seized all of Ukraine, and using hyperbole like saying everyone thought it would be an all-out war. You're dodging around the fact that a lot of what you said is factually wrong. You're abusing well-held definitions such as, I don't know, using the word 'seized' in a context that is clearly not applicable to the situation. Russia does not hold Ukraine, therefore it has not seized Ukraine. By no stretch of the imagination is that statement right. A key part of debate is both sides using the same definitions for the same term. I'd echo what other posters have said before: please, please, learn how to post.

If you feel like you know how to post, explain the following:
a) How Russia has seized all of Ukraine
b) How you can assert Russia controls all of Ukraine (protip: 'everyone knows it, it is soooo obvious, lern2raed!1!111!' is not a correct answer)
c) How Russia killed Ukrainians despite having literally not fired more than a warning shot
d) Where else Russia has moved into Ukraine
e) How either side can be constitutionally right when all of the pro-Russian Ukrainians, pro-West Ukrainians, and Russia have acted against Ukrainian or international law?

Please deal with them in a similar way for ease of reading.
 
You're clearly not trying to hold a debate if you're trying to use evidence you say there's no proof for, you claim that Russia has seized all of Ukraine, and using hyperbole like saying everyone thought it would be an all-out war. You're dodging around the fact that a lot of what you said is factually wrong. You're abusing well-held definitions such as, I don't know, using the word 'seized' in a context that is clearly not applicable to the situation. Russia does not hold Ukraine, therefore it has not seized Ukraine. By no stretch of the imagination is that statement right. A key part of debate is both sides using the same definitions for the same term. I'd echo what other posters have said before: please, please, learn how to post.

If you feel like you know how to post, explain the following:
a) How Russia has seized all of Ukraine
b) How you can assert Russia controls all of Ukraine (protip: 'everyone knows it, it is soooo obvious, lern2raed!1!111!' is not a correct answer)
c) How Russia killed Ukrainians despite having literally not fired more than a warning shot
d) Where else Russia has moved into Ukraine
e) How either side can be constitutionally right when all of the pro-Russian Ukrainians, pro-West Ukrainians, and Russia have acted against Ukrainian or international law?

Please deal with them in a similar way for ease of reading.
Dear God... Well let's start. As for international law:

President Barack Obama has said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has violated international law by sending troops into the Crimea. Law is on Obama's side, which is why Putin is organizing his justification counter-offensive.

The United Nations charter (article 2(4)) prohibits "the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations." Ukrainian lawyers have said there are additional treaties Putin is violating.

Putin's forces were apparently concerned enough about the U.N prohibition to strip the identifying markers off Russian soldiers before sending them into Crimea, and to now call these troops "local defense forces." But removing their insignias does not change the facts.

Putin's new tactic is to claim that Russia has been invited in. It is illegal to invade another country, but not illegal to send in help when a legitimate government requests it. Putin has asserted that Ukraine's ousted president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, remains the Ukraine's legitimate president, and he has asked for help. Putin may also be behind the influx of protest tourists to Ukraine who pretend they are Ukrainians asking for Russian help.

There is a long and storied tradition of governments inventing a legal premise to justify their actions. During the Cold War, President Reagan justified U.S. intervention in Grenada as necessary to protect Americans living on the island. Reagan also defended U.S. military support in Nicaragua as collective self-defense requested by El Salvador. These claims were just as credible as Putin's claims, which is to say: not very.

Putin cares little whether his actions violate international law. But the Europeans and Americans who will organize a response do care, and ordinary Russians may also care, which is why Putin is working to create the appearance of legal intervention. While only the U.N. Security Council (where Russia holds veto power) can authorize a collective response to Russian aggression, the legal principle of "responsibility to protect" allows individual states and groups of states to legally justify their response to illegal acts of aggression.
 
You're clearly not trying to hold a debate if you're trying to use evidence you say there's no proof for, you claim that Russia has seized all of Ukraine, and using hyperbole like saying everyone thought it would be an all-out war. You're dodging around the fact that a lot of what you said is factually wrong. You're abusing well-held definitions such as, I don't know, using the word 'seized' in a context that is clearly not applicable to the situation. Russia does not hold Ukraine, therefore it has not seized Ukraine. By no stretch of the imagination is that statement right. A key part of debate is both sides using the same definitions for the same term. I'd echo what other posters have said before: please, please, learn how to post.

If you feel like you know how to post, explain the following:
a) How Russia has seized all of Ukraine
b) How you can assert Russia controls all of Ukraine (protip: 'everyone knows it, it is soooo obvious, lern2raed!1!111!' is not a correct answer)
c) How Russia killed Ukrainians despite having literally not fired more than a warning shot
d) Where else Russia has moved into Ukraine
e) How either side can be constitutionally right when all of the pro-Russian Ukrainians, pro-West Ukrainians, and Russia have acted against Ukrainian or international law?

Please deal with them in a similar way for ease of reading.
Yep. He said, and you know, for a fact, that he meant, "Russia took over all of Ukraine". Also, why aren't you responding to my posts?
He meant they did control it as a partial puppet state.
Where did he say Russia had killed Ukrainians? There are documented cases of several known missing Tartars, along with at least a couple hundred unconfirmed reports. Just google "Tartars missing in Crimea".
D) doesn't deserve a response. Never mentioned, even remotely.
Neither side is. The Russians have violated a treaty, are morally wrong, and busy breaking laws the U. S. refuses to respond to, which is what Putin is counting on. The idiocy in saying that an international peace treaty has not been violated is just wrong.
Now answer me
1. How has Ukraine agreed to this(which it must for this to be legal)?
2. Why shouldn't Russia be punished for this violation?
3. Why do the Russians guard the border if not to annex it?
 
President Barack Obama has said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has violated international law by sending troops into the Crimea. Law is on Obama's side, which is why Putin is organizing his justification counter-offensive.
Oh, so NOW Obama cares about violating international law? Where was this bold language when he invaded Libya without UNSC or congressional approval? Where was it with all the covert drone wars we've been waging in Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, et.al? We have just about zero moral authority to be poking our noses into this conflict. The only reason why we're interested is because we want Ukraine to serve our oligarchs instead of Russia's.
 
Oh, so NOW Obama cares about violating international law? Where was this bold language when he invaded Libya without UNSC or congressional approval? Where was it with all the covert drone wars we've been waging in Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, et.al? We have just about zero moral authority to be poking our noses into this conflict. The only reason why we're interested is because we want Ukraine to serve our oligarchs instead of Russia's.
VanguardSoul didn't say Obama wasn't hypocritical; he said the law is on his side.
Also,please respond to my 1. 2. 3. so it doesn't seem like you can't argue against me. Maybe I am underestimating my skill as an argues though, which seems to be what you are suggesting.
 
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Oh, so NOW Obama cares about violating international law? Where was this bold language when he invaded Libya without UNSC or congressional approval? Where was it with all the covert drone wars we've been waging in Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, et.al? We have just about zero moral authority to be poking our noses into this conflict. The only reason why we're interested is because we want Ukraine to serve our oligarchs instead of Russia's.
We? I'm Canadian. Ukraine joining EU doesn't really help us in any way. Fair enough, I see your point. I agree that yeah, the States have stuck their nose where it doesn't belong countless times. But with that being said, it doesn't make it anymore right for Russia to do what it is doing right now.
 
We? I'm Canadian. Ukraine joining EU doesn't really help us in any way. Fair enough, I see your point. I agree that yeah, the States have stuck their nose where it doesn't belong countless times. But with that being said, it doesn't make it anymore right for Russia to do what it is doing right now.
I won't pretend to know precisely what's going on, because there's too much propaganda from either side to sift through, but assuming that particular narrative, no it's not right for Russia to do that. Just that we're the last people who should be condemning them.

VanguardSoul didn't say Obama wasn't hypocritical; he said the law is on his side.
Also,please respond to my 1. 2. 3. so it doesn't seem like you can't argue against me. Maybe I am underestimating my skill as an argues though, which seems to be what you are suggesting.
I wasn't arguing against anyone in particular, I was just blowing smoke.
 

verbatim

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Russia hasn't seized Ukraine because it hasn't gone further than Crimea (contrary to what you say, they have not moved into 'the rest of Ukraine', does not run Ukraine's government, and has not fired anything more than a warning shot in this conflict. By no sane stretch of the imagination can you or anybody else say Russia has seized Ukraine, as they patently have not. I'm not sure how much more clearly I can state this, so here goes:

Russia has not moved into the rest of Ukraine

I'm not sure if you want a debate or not because you're clearly inventing facts and abusing well-held definitions.
Building off of this, its interesting how people seem to be interpreting this as a gain for Russia. They lost their former status over Ukraine as a whole after Yanukovych fled. Their actions with regards to the Crimea are of incredible geopolitical significance no doubt, but at best it represents an attempt by Russia to hold onto a part of what it has lost.
 
Building off of this, its interesting how people seem to be interpreting this as a gain for Russia. They lost their former status over Ukraine as a whole after Yanukovych fled. Their actions with regards to the Crimea are of incredible geopolitical significance no doubt, but at best it represents an attempt by Russia to hold onto a part of what it has lost.
I think they might be planning a re-coup(if you will), which will be backed by Russia in exchange for Crimea belonging to Russia. Also, I would just like to say to everyone, like three days before Russia first sent troops to Crimea, I predicted Russia would do so(not on here; in my mind), so that's why I am doing so much discussion here. Geopolitics really has nothing to do with it; Russia wants a foothold to launch the re-coúp from, and Crimea provides the means for Russia to build a larger navy in the Black Sea. If not a re-coúp attempt, I would gues it was due to geomilitarial purposes to have an advantage in a future Mediterranean Sea War, which would probably become engaged in in the Black Sea. Overall, sure Russia has made some bad choices politically, economically, and political friendliness-wise, but they have made a most brilliant move in military tactics.
 

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From here
That’s why Kuchma, and Ukraine more generally, required guarantees and assurances from the other major nuclear powers — Russia, the United States and the UK (and later France and China, which signed on) — that its “sovereignty and its territorial integrity” would be respected.


With the Budapest Memorandum, U.S. President Bill Clinton, Russia’s Yeltsin, and UK Prime Minister John Major pledged “to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.” Vladimir Putin seems to have forgotten about this.

The Budapest Memorandum also provided that any of the parties could request a meeting of all the parties at any time to consult “in the event that a situation arises relating to Ukraine’s sovereignty or territorial integrity”.

A week ago, Britain, the United States and France called for just such a consultation meeting, to be held in Paris on March 5. Russia was given notice of the meeting, and was invited to attend. On the appointed day, all the parties arrived — but Russia refused to attend, despite the fact that Russian aggression was the reason the meeting was called in the first place


Again it really annoys me when people are all "B-BUT AMERICA IS BEING VIOLENT AGAIN!" Yeah, that's because we literally signed a treaty about this 20 years ago....

Taking Crimea was a sly and decisive move by Putin, and he definitely hoped to have it not blow up this big. He may have expected Crimea to secretly slip away during some kind of national rebellion. However, as Crimea is not actually connected to Russia and gets all utilities from Ukraine, secession would be a logistical nightmare for the people there. First step is that Russia needs to get its troops out, no questions asked. From that point it seems a great deal of Crimeans support secession, but honestly that can wait until Ukraine's own political problems are stabilized.
 
It seems to me that both sides are just using morality as an excuse to justify their actions, and their main interests in this issue are merely political.
 
Some interesting articles from the BBC here.

Regardless of the morality of it, the way that Putin has conducted the takeover of Crimea is genius. The wider concern though is that it will not stop there.
 
I doubt Russia will take the time to start a large scale war (or atleast I hope they wouldn't want it to get that far) and Ukraine is too close to the EU for it to just ignore the political state. US on the other hand should just be commenting on the situation unless there's a serious liberty problem with the Ukraine gov. Apparently there was a vote to annex Crimean with 97% yes but people are claiming the vote was illegal or unfair and a lot of people must still have problems if there's so much violence. I don't know what to think of it but I hope it gets resolved peacefully.
 
The situation is very far away from military conflict.

What we could be seeing, however, is the most political tension between Russia and The West since the Cold War. Each side has cards it can play - much of Europe relies on Russia for energy (mainly gas), although this works both ways as this forms a large part of Russian economy. On the other side, The West can inflict sanctions.

Either way, Russia will absorb Crimea. What happens next is the real question; how will the Ukraine government respond, then what will be Russia's response to that?
 

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