Lockdown Mafia 2: Hail To The Chief - Game Over, Mafia Wins!

askaninjask

[FLAIL ARMS]
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Rook has been acting much more suspicious than Tenken. If Rook is mafia, then Tenken probably isn't, as Rook voted for Tenken. So, I really would prefer to get Rook today than Tenken.

Voting Rook
 
Remind me why Rook is suspicious? I mean, the guy defended me, and I know I'm not mafia...so to me it's kinda hard to vote for him! But it probably makes sense for others.
 

askaninjask

[FLAIL ARMS]
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Really, nobody was suspicious of Rook because he defended Mekkah, I was suspicious of Rook because of how quickly he voted for Tenken. After saying his name in the thread, he goes off on a tangent about how he was just defending Mekkah. His reasoning for voting Tenken could apply to any player in the game.

The reason many people are voting Tenken (i think) is because he defended an option for no lynch. But Rook has done this as well. Rook's posts are making little to no sense (CIM didn't ask for my opinion he just wanted me to lead.....?)

also this made me more sure my suspicions:
Rook said:
Edit: I'm trying to create more discussion. I can assure you, I'm not mafia, but really my word means nothing. Just know, if you lynch me you'll be losing a member of the village.
 
My blunder? Do you mean my post asking to end the game? I don't see how that is a blunder at all, and people are giving it too much time.

I don't even know what uestion you mean lol. If it was themafia recruit question, that is old. If it is you coming in at a convenient time, that isn't really a question.
I honestly think Tenken is much more suspicous. People are giving valid reasons for lynching Tenken - reasons that have nothing to do with the bolded part. He's trying to twist their words into something else entirely. He's not even reading what they're saying.
 
My blunder? Do you mean my post asking to end the game? I don't see how that is a blunder at all, and people are giving it too much time.

I don't even know what uestion you mean lol. If it was themafia recruit question, that is old. If it is you coming in at a convenient time, that isn't really a question.
Figurative blunder. If you did not mean to come across the way you are (which I assume you did not), you have made a blunder. You really are straw manning now. It's getting very frustrating. I can only conclude one thing from your unwillingness to face my scrutiny: you are mafia.

aska: if I read Chris's post right, he voted Tenken for perceived stupidity and supporting a no lynch, but as time went by, Tenken just dug a grave for himself. He looks undeniably suspicious.

Mekkah: that's just it, his blind defense of you. If Rook had blindly defended me then you would be pretty suspicious, right? In fact, it would not just implicate him, but it would implicate me, although to a lesser degree imo, seeing as Rook could theoretically just be a mafia trying to befriend the village. I'm inclined to think Rook is just a clueless villager, but it's certainly worth devoting attention to. However, that is just a gut instinct and has no basis in reasoning.
 
I think Tenken is the "best" lynch so far. "Best" because he has some suspicious behaviour, but he can also be a rather clueless villager, and half the game hasn't even posted yet.

EDIT: Yes, I agree I would be suspicious of someone who defended another person for no apparent reason...but tbh that seems like such a dumb thing to do as mafia (who can coordinate their team's posts) that it seems too unlikely.

In the meantime,

The following people haven't posted anything relevant:

1. blue_light
2. Johann
3. reachzero
4. jermy
5. RaRe555
6. macle
7. tredge
fire jermy to call him out.
 
Yes, I hope nobody starts a bandwagon. There's no need for more votes to be placed on Tenken because we have a majority on him, and the less votes, the more easily we can retract it for a better target, should one arise.
 
I think if I actually was mafia, I wouldn't lynch Tenken. He's kind of acting like a stupid villager, which would be good for the mafia. I would probably lynch someone else more important. I actually do think he is a villager now, but a stupid one at that. I would rather lynch a mafia person of course, but we have no idea who they are. A stupid villy would be helpful to them, so I thought I might as well start by voting one of them.

So while I'm not against firing Tenken, I don't think he's mafia. He's acting like mafia, but he has done it repeatedly. His team, if they are any good, would have stopped him by now. His dumb posts, imo, are seriously out of stupidity more than that he's mafia and slipping. Plus, he is being pressured to be lynched by numerous people, making him mindlessly defend himself, which makes even more people think he's mafia.
 
Rook said:
His team, if they are any good, would have stopped him by now.
I think this is a surprisingly good point. Unless there were no other mafia online in time to stop his posts, or they decided to let him keep going to not lose consistency, then I think Tenken being a villager is more of given than almost anyone else.

Rook said:
A stupid villy would be helpful to them, so I thought I might as well start by voting one of them.
Nobody listens to a stupid villager though. They are harmless unless there's more stupid people who are going to listen to him. As I said, if you want the worst case scenario to be soft, then by all means get rid of Tenken...but there's no need to rush it like that.
 
That's true, Mekkah. Of course, there's a possibility nobody but Rook was on and he took matters into his own hands.

Rook, that is a reasonable point, and I'm not even sure if my final lynch target will be Tenken... but he's certainly made himself look pretty bad and I still have quite a bit of conviction, so I'm hesitant to remove my vote and ease the pressure.
 
I think this is a surprisingly good point. Unless there were no other mafia online in time to stop his posts, or they decided to let him keep going to not lose consistency, then I think Tenken being a villager is more of given than almost anyone else.
You can't rely on this, though, and he's the best we have. There are a number of possibilities on both sides that would explain this behaviour. However, it's definitely a good point. Tenken is definitely relying on mafia-like techniques, though, like straw manning, hiding behind other people, etc.

Nobody listens to a stupid villager though. They are harmless unless there's more stupid people who are going to listen to him. As I said, if you want the worst case scenario to be soft, then by all means get rid of Tenken...but there's no need to rush it like that.
That's why I said that nobody else should vote on him~
 
Rook, that is a reasonable point, and I'm not even sure if my final lynch target will be Tenken... but he's certainly made himself look pretty bad and I still have quite a bit of conviction, so I'm hesitant to remove my vote and ease the pressure.
I agree with pluff. Tenken is acting like an idiot - whether he is an idiot or not is yet to be seen, but theres a pretty high chance he is. But lynching a stupid villy (if he is villy) is a double-edged sword - we lose an easily influencable character, but mafia has a higher chance to hit important people. But I'm hesitant to believe Tenken is villy.
 
I don't think Tenken is mafia - unfortunately I can't really elaborate now, but if there's anyone that's suspicious it would be Rook imo, though I wouldn't accuse him either. The thing is, CIM accused Tenken and then pressured him, followed by pluff, and in that situation you look suspicious no matter what you say. If anything I suspect CIM and pluff more than Tenken himself, CIM for accusing someone straightaway (which if he is mafia could potentially give him a 'free kill', hence why he'd have picked a relatively unknown player rather than a bigger name) and pluff for pushing the accusations further when the poor guy is only looking a bit desperate.

Anyway I'll post something more substantial when I get home, a short and clear summary of what has been said is needed so we can have a better overview of the situation (that should be done each day in fact).
 
I'd write it but I'm about to head to bed again.

It isn't like I'm overpressuring Tenken for shits and giggles. Firstly, I would relent somewhat if Tenken actually faced up to my scrutiny. You cannot deny the fact that he has been twisting my words and trying to back out of the situation. In a court of law, 'I'm helpless and the big mean prosecutor is making me look bad, now how about (random user)? THEY look pretty suspicious!' would be a pretty feeble defense. This might not be a court of law, but I think that principle translates. Of course, the prosecutor's job is to make a case for someone being bad, and unlike a prosecutor, I am willing to accept Tenken may be innocent -- if he can make a case for himself. It looks to me like he has to get other users to rescue him, which makes me wonder about them as well. Hell, you're even trying the emotional defense for him -- 'the poor guy, jumpluff is ruthlessly pushing him and he has no way out of that situation!' In fact, Rook raised quite a good point, which has made me slow down and consider.

It seems to me that Accent wants us to avoid putting pressure on Tenken, lest Tenken make further mistakes, and I have to question if it's more than mere pity. Of course, there's justification for everyone in this game being suspicious, so this is just something I wanted to note, rather than an accusation.
 
Day 1

Day 1 starts with no kills, which is a given part of the game. SDS posts the roles. Class posts something irrelevant about the spelling of ridiculous.

Chris is me starts the discussion with a lynch on Tenken, claiming that killing a bad player is no loss. billymills counters that Tenken could just be an uninterested villager and asks if it's worth killing said uninterested villager. Chris responds that it is better than killing nobody at all, and points out that Tenken could be faking or a recruit. billy says, 'Would you recruit Tenken?', although he adds that he'd rather lynch an active idiot than a idler.

Mekkah agrees with Chris that no lynch is bad play, but says that he would rather lynch someone based on the day than the night (i.e. Tenken's insistence the game needs to start, I think?).

Rook proposes we wait.

Chris responds to Mekkah's post stating the following: he can change his vote, he intended to ignite discussion with his lynch, and that Tenken is the best bet. To Rook, he says we need to gather information and Day 1 is no time for conservative play. Mekkah says we should talk a lot. HD points out that the mafia could be leading the discussion, to which Mekkah says it is the president's job to talk, and that we should all contribute.

askaninjask proposes a 24 hour grace period to allow Europeans/Australians to get up, and says that since more than half the game hasn't even posted yet, and that idlers are more suspicious, Tenken seems like a bad target.

I will add more in this post.

...I just lost my entire summary due to accidentally hitting back. Goddammit. Ill have to finish this later ._.
 
I don't think Tenken is mafia. Heck, I'd be taken aback if someone pointed the finger at me in the very first post of Day 1. He may have taken his defence to extreme lengths, but I have to agree with Rook in that his so-called suspicious behaviour is probably more down to pressure than anything.

This is a totally out-there point, but I'm actually a bit suspicious of reachzero. He's posted once in this topic to say that Chris is me was being ridiculously hasty in his vote for Tenken, and so we should fire him. That's not really that suspicious in itself, but it struck me as a little odd that he should point the finger at Chris before hastily pointing the finger himself. If he was mafia, this could be seen as trying to redirect a firing from an overdefensive villager to one who has - let's face it - sparked a lot of the discussion that is still going on now. What's more, he hasn't posted at all since then, and with all the accusations flying around, mainly directed towards Rook and Tenken, the mafia probably don't need to post much, because things are starting to look a bit chaotic, and drawing attention to yourself at this stage could be seen as an unnecessary risk.

This is, of course, all guesswork, but I'm going to propose that we fire reachzero. I may edit this post later if I spot a more suspicious target.
 
I think that we should still stick with no lynch. We've all been just pointing fingers at each other, with no major slip-ups by mafia. Cardflip is off, so we won't be able to figure out if we actually did lynch a mafia member. I think it's best until we get some results, because we'll then have the information we need to start lynching.
 
Tenken's defence was not even half a defence, it was so pitiful, but if I am outnumbered, then so be it. I am unsure what to think.

jermy - we won't get results. No lynch results in a free kill for mafia. I would say slip ups by highly likely mafia have been made, but people disagree with me on that. I guess I am more ruthless than they are. No lynch is an awful move at this stage.

About reachzero - he might not have been on yet, but in any case, his post was certainly interesting... although I don't think his vote on Chris was that unreasonable. I would like to hear more from reach before I make any sort of conclusion.
 

cim

happiness is such hard work
is a Contributor Alumnusis a Smogon Media Contributor Alumnus
If anything I suspect CIM and pluff more than Tenken himself, CIM for accusing someone straightaway (which if he is mafia could potentially give him a 'free kill', hence why he'd have picked a relatively unknown player rather than a bigger name) and pluff for pushing the accusations further when the poor guy is only looking a bit desperate.
In my defense that's how I always play real Mafia, and how anyone should since it starts a ton of discussion. It just so happens that my target turned out to act really, really suspicious.

Mekkah's point about the other team members stopping him is a very good one, which I'm considering. I'm also considering that he hasn't posted in awhile. Perhaps he "got the message" so to speak. Not changing my vote until someone more suspicious pops up.

And reach isn't (right now) more suspicious in my mind; I mean, he's normally on later in the day and since it is Sunday, it makes sense he'd go to bed early and wake up on time. Then again, why am I defending the guy who wants me dead? Funny how mafia works.

You know what is suspicious? Not talking for over a day and then popping in only to say we shouldn't lynch anyone, after it's been said how stupid of a move that is. Mafia is a game that's actually supposed to have risk, guys... I'm eyeing jermy now. Only reason I'm not voting for him is because it would be TOO stupid to do something like that.
 
I would be suspicious of CIM, but he spoke up right away. Which is, in my mind, not a mafia move. He just wants to lead the villager, and all the attention/power that comes along with it.

Jumpluff, on the other hand, submitted a very long post soon after Mekkah singled her out. That is slightly suspicious.

Tenken is probably the second most thoroughly proven villager, behind askaninjask.
 

askaninjask

[FLAIL ARMS]
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
I would also like to point out that if you look at the manner in which CIM posts before and after the roles were given out, you will notice that he is posting in exactly the same way.
 
Day 1

I'm home now so I'll continue what Alice has started. Also, I didn't intend to 'try the emotional defense', it's just that his defense didn't look suspicious to me but rather desperate, ie he had no clue what to say. Which happens whether you're mafia or villager - in fact if you're mafia there are chances you're prepared to counter an accusation, but since this is day 1 the cutthroats might not have had time to anticipate anything yet.

Anyway:

Chris is me starts the discussion with a lynch on Tenken; billymills defends Tenken.

Mekkah agrees with Chris that no lynch is bad play and says we should talk a lot. HD points out that the mafia could be leading the discussion, to which Mekkah says it is the president's job to talk, and that we should all contribute.

askaninjask proposes a 24 hour grace period to allow Europeans/Australians to get up, and says that since more than half the game hasn't even posted yet, and that idlers are more suspicious, Tenken seems like a bad target.

Chris answers that waiting is dumb since it will just delay the discussion, as the mafia would avoid saying anything during that period; he also says that while 'it's a good idea to keep an eye on quieter people', there are too many to pick one to lynch for now.
(this argument seems strange to me as randlynching is what Chris suggested in the first place, more or less)

Tenken pops up and defends the no lynch idea, saying that it's unlikely to hit a mafia at that point and that reducing the villager numbers increases the mafia's chances to kill a power role; however Mekkah points out that no lynch gives us no voting patterns to analyze.

reachzero jumps in and says that if we lynch someone, we should eliminate a player who's 'memorably contrarian and quick to point the finger with little or no evidence', then proceeds to fire Chris.

Chris, responding to Tenken, explains once again why no lynch is a bad idea, and suggests that Tenken, by advocating that strategy, is acting like a mafia.

Tenken says that while he's not the best player, Chris isn't either, and that from the games he's seen no lynch day 1 is quite common. In his opinion lynching a bad player is useless because if they are mafia they will eventually slip, so it's better to assume they're villagers until they do make a mistake (a mistake that good players will not make).

TotalPotato answers to reach saying that we will point fingers without evidence no matter what, and that Chris is actually starting discussion which is good. Rook says reach is doing exactly the same and that we shouldn't be suspicious of someone purely because they threaten to lynch someone else.

Rook states that an individual player's skill isn't relevant as the cutthroats are in a team and can communicate with each other, and there is a good chance that at least one of them is competent enough. He then lynches Tenken (that was withdrawn since then).

Tenken says that Mekkah's posts are fishy, as he supported a lynch but didn't lynch anyone himself, and asked for the president's opinion although askaninjask has no reason to know anything that we don't.

billymills defends Tenken again saying that if he was mafia his teammates wouldn't have told him to post during the night, and that no one would recruit him. He also defends Chris because he thinks he just desperately wants to lead.

aska states that he's more suspicious of Rook and Chris because they've been posting a lot and defending each other, but also says that lynching Chris is a bigger risk and so that he would prefer to fire Rook.

Rook answers to Tenken and aska that someone, Mekkah for example, leading the village would be good - hence he's defending him (kinda highly defensive post).

Tenken says aska is possibly a 'weak president', that his opinion is worth that of any other player, and reiterates his point about unskilled players slipping by themselves.

Rook makes another defensive post ('I'm defending Mekkah because I'd like to have him alive as a villager'). Chris says he likes Rook's logic concerning Mekkah.

Tenken asks who we would recruit if we were mafia. billymills says he'd randomize a name among the best 6-7 players. Mekkah says he doesn't think the mafia would recruit a big name and fires jumpluff because she hasn't posted yet.

jumpluff reacts with a long post, in which she says that considering skill differences and the recruitment there is no reason to believe Mekkah is either mafia or villager for now.
After that she demonstrates why Tenken looks suspicious to her: he was overly defensive, hid behind a lack of skill, said that lynching a bad player was a bad idea.
Then she says she isn't strongly opposed to a no lynch and wouldn't want to lynch a stupid villager, but estimates that Tenken is probably mafia in any case and fires him. Then she posts a list of idle players:
  1. blue_light
  2. Johann
  3. reachzero
  4. jermy
  5. RaRe555
  6. macle
  7. tredge
(Note that she mentionned reachzero even though he posted, but not Thunda nor Trick Room)

Tenken attacks jumpluff saying she's playing the 'vanilla card' and defends himself saying that so far there was no real attack on him, hence he couldn't counter them. Chris answers by repeating his previous points.

Tenken repeats that he never used the fact that he's an inexperienced player as a defense (despite being proven otherwise). Then he explains the reasoning behind his question: it was to get more info based on how it was answered.

Tenken then says he thinks billymills is mafia based on how he defended him for no reason; he also suggests that Rook and Mekkah might be mafia too.

aska says Rook looks more suspiscious to him because of how he quickly lynched Tenken and still encouraged a no lynch, and was defensive in most of his posts.

There is some confusion around the next posts, whether it's because Tenken is avoiding accusations or misunderstanding them, or because other players miss some posts and don't specify who they're talking to. Just mentioning that because some of Tenken's posts were interpreted as bad defense when they could only be a misunderstanding.

Rook says he doesn't actually think Tenken is mafia but still isn't against firing him because according to him it would eliminate a stupid player.

I skipped some posts by Mekkah but he's just making wise-looking compromises everywhere. jumpluff on the other hand repeated multiple times that she thought Tenken is mafia.

Accent sais he though Rook looks more suspicious than Tenken. jumpluff answers that Accent was shady because of this.

TotalPotato remembers reachzero's only post which was quite abrupt and fires him.

jermy suggests a no lynch. jumpluff says it is an awful move. Chris says it's so awful only a mafia would suggest it.



Argh this is long, updating
You can start reading but I will synthesize it more.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 0)

Top