After playing some Inconsistant LC battles, I have to say that
Inconsistant definitely needs to be claused. NOT BANNED, just claused. Abilities and moves, should be claused, as they have been. Banning integral parts of the game is unprecedented and should not be considered, just to be clear, I am proposing
Inconsistancy Clause...or something like it, where the luck-based ability is not allowed to be used while the clause is in effect.
I've noticed people complaining about Iron Head and Sand Veil/Snow Cloak being unchecked while this is being so discussed. In supporting my clause proposal, I will address these statements. If you're not interested in my basis of comparing Inconsistent to already-existing abilities, skip to the recap and read from there.
The logic behind this clause is going something like this. Consider a Sub/Protect Inconsistancy user. On turn one, there is a 1/7 (14%, roughly) chance that it will get an Evasion boost, a 28% chance it will get an Evasion OR Speed boost, etc. Compare this to other abilities/moves such as Iron Head, or Snow Cloak, which are luck based. People hate these abilites for good reason. On turn one, there is a 60% chance for Iron Head to flinch you outright (from Rachi), and a 20% (with a standard, 100% accurate move) chance for your attack to miss. We will compare these three cases over seven turns, the amount of time the average Sub/Protect user has to make or break their game.
Now, over time, the chance for Iron Head to flinch GOES DOWN, statistically, as per: .6^7 (.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6) = .02799, or 2.8% chance that you will be unable to connect all seven turns. When you look at that, Iron Head is pretty non-threatening. It's in no way a complete shut down like people complain it is unless your foe gets hax, and the odds of your Stone Edge or Overheat (or even Air Slash) missing are far better than the odds of Iron Head screwing you over.
Snow Cloak is the opposite way: It has a 80% chance to not activate in any given turn. That means, .8^7 = .209715, or there is a 21% chance that you will hit seven times in a row. Of course, that number is generally meaningless, since if you attack continually, your foe will only get five (maybe six) meaningful turns to try to avoid you, as Protecting while attempting to Snow Cloak is redundant, and will not be considered. The chance of their not dodging a move is a more reasonable 32.77%. What this means: if you miss a Sub-Thunder Wave-Confuse Ray Froslass, it's not hax, it's just the math working out properly.
Now, Snow Cloak/Sand Veil is pretty annoying data to look at for the competitive mindset--far worse than Iron Head, since that's a set move with a set power dealing set damage, which you can mitigate. On the flip side, Snow cloak will dodge ANY move (bar 101 accuracy), which can mean a lot more in some cases than others, as anyone who's ever had a Stone Edge miss Gyarados while it's Dragon Dancing can tell you. A Snow Cloak miss could mean one more meaningless Ice Beam or Ice Shard coming your way, or it could mean the difference between getting swept by a Pokemon your only counter to is being destroyed, or even full spikes getting set down by Froslass (in OU, so not relevant, but the point of potential changing depending on the situation still stands).
Still, if you're that Swinub or Kumasyun weak that they're sweeping you, it could (and should) be argued it's your team's fault. That is one other major difference: Snow Cloak doesn't give the Pokemon any super powers, just a small chance to dodge. So, not really ban material. Even being fully abused, it's still not that likely to pull out a win, especially if you bring along something with a priority move to deal a killing blow before the Snow Cloak user can put up another sub. Remember: Those numbers up there are OPTIMAL conditions. Every turn the foe doesn't get another chance is another pretty hefty chunk of their calculations cut off, down to a minimal 20% chance to win if they're trying to avoid an OHKO with the ability. Additionally, removing Hail removes the ability's usefulness altogether! So, you do not have to resort to Aerial Ace or Faint Attack to hit these guys, you can just use Poliwag or Vulpix. That is what differentiates Snow Cloak from Inconsistant, as I will now demonstrate.
To recap:
Iron Head differs from Inconsistency in that
- odds go down over time, not up.
- it is opponent input that you can mitigate directly through teambuilding and/or prediction: use Magnezone or Tran with Lefties!
Snow Cloak/Sand Veil differ from Inconsistency in that
- it can be countered 100% by certain Pokemon, no luck involved
- these Pokemon with this ability are not necessarily capable of sweeping teams unopposed, simply because they have a small evasion boost.
- counters to these abilities are priority moves or tactics that will have a place on your team otherwise (ie. Scarf Machop, Vacuum Wave Croagunk, Elekid)
Now, Inconsistancy has a 42% chance per turn of bestowing a beneficial effect: 14% for Evasion, Speed, and to one of the two defenses, as we know. Past turn 1, the chance drops to 28%, as getting a drop in one of those once it's been boosted sort of nullifies the benefit in the first place. So, over seven turns, there is a 56% chance turn 1 that a positive boost will not occur, and 72% chance per the next six turns. Thus:
.56*(.72)^6 = 7.8%
There is a very, very small percentage chance that if you do not have a tactic specifically to counter Inconsistant users, they will screw themselves in terms of useful boosts, over seven turns. Do remember, this is the OPTIMAL case: they may be weak enough after this time that they will not be able to clean-sweep you, you may hit through their evasion boosts regardless, or they could get beneficial boosts in an area which no longer matters past the first boost (+2 Speed or +6 speed, who cares, once you're faster it doesn't really matter).
The main reason that this is so deadly is once they've started shrugging off and avoiding your attacks, they will probably systematically boost up to +6 Atk/SpAtk and destroy you. Once they get those evasion or defense boosts, YOU'RE the one relying on hax to save your ass, unless you have something with Clear Smog or Roar that can hit past evasion boosts and take things like Bidoof's +3 Return, or Remoraid's +5 Surf. While there's definitely not a 92.2% chance every Inconsistent user will sweep you, do you really want a 70%, 50%, or even 40% chance that the opponent will be able to get into a situation where the math SUPPORTS them getting a no-risk +6 across the board, and you're the one trying to get lucky and hope they get several drops in a row? That completely destroys the concept of a competitive battle. It should be skill based, not "hope one of my three inconsistent Pokemon gets a boost and sweeps". And that will doubtless be the case if we do not clause it.
And if you need any further proof, I got up to #22 on LC ladder using an Inconsistent team. Anyone who knows my typical LC performance should be able to tell you that is unholy and wrong.
tl;dr Support an
Inconsistancy Clause