NOC OC NOC GAME OVER - Now Despair

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Also if Aubisio is the scum we policy lynch d1 in every future game yn

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

You redirected a lynch onto town when I was pursuing scum targets. Twice. I don't care how good an actor you think that makes you, the possibility of a pubinspect gave you more freedom and better public opinion on the second lynch.

I'm willing to listen to a case on me, Texas.

Changed my mind, the case on you is weak and was much more noticeable when I was going back looking for scum connections, pretty much solely based in gut feeling and you buddying me a bunch through mid game

Unvote Vote Former Hope

I believe this is the winning play

Alternatively, lynching martin to clear paper / assuage concerns against me

Best play is a double lynch of Martin and Former


Also the stuff wrt shubaka I said I'd find

I'm down to lynch shubaka.

Purely based on meta I agree with blazade that moody is acting like he does as town and shubaka is acting like he did when we were scum together in 101

Also down to keep my vote on moody if we don't want to shift 6 votes over at 20 mins to deadline, though

Martin and I vote later that page to put him at 3, Moody is sitting at 5(?) at that point
On the next page acid puts moody at 5-4, and then blazade revotes to 5-4 for shubaka (THIS WAS THE MAJOR THING THAT SAID BLAZADE WASN'T SCUM BEFORE)

 

[Samoyed]

Unvote everything

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

May as well update my VCA while I'm here

Pulling from here
http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/oc-noc-day-10-castling.3594883/page-45#post-7238431

Also patting myself on the back because so many of those hypotheses were correct

Lynch Count 1
lynch moodycloud: vanillish wafer, pancake, fort colorcastle (3)
lynch cancerous: texas cloverleaf, martin, smashlloyd, former hope, Moodycloud (5)
lynch walrein: asek, cancerous, blank slate (3)
lynch blank slate: walrein, blazade (2)
lynch shubaka: acidphoenix (1)
lynch Haruno: lightwolf (1)
lynch Martin: ButteredToast (1)
NOT VOTING: aubisio, whydon, knightsofcydonia, haruno, shubaka (5)

Counterwagon 1 (NOT VOTING): aubisio, whydon, knightsofcydonia, haruno, shubaka
Counterwagon 2a (Moody): vanillish, pancake, fort colorcastle
Counterwagon 2b (Walrein): asek, cancerous, blank slate

Lynch count 2
lynch blankslate: lloyd, pancake (2)
lynch moody: lightwolf, butteredtoast, fort colorcastle, aubisio (4)
lynch shubaka: moody, martin, texas, phoenix, blazade, haruno (6)
lynch aubisio: blank slate (1)
NOT VOTING: vanillish, former hope, asek, whydon, shubaka, knightsofcydonia (6)

Counterwagon 1 (NOT VOTING): vanillish, former hope, asek, whydon, shubaka, knightsofcydonia
Counterwagon 2: lightwolf, butteredtoast, fort colorcastle, aubisio


Previous Conclusions
Among Texas/moody/martin there is maximum one scum, zero scum more probable. Scum want to avoid being on town lynch wagons and being on both is a major target

Former Hope and Haruno are probable scum targets, being on one lynch and one counterwagon. Former Hope is particularly suspect for being the fourth vote on the main wagon, prime scum territory


Not bothering with the rest partly because they've all been scum bandwagons and partly because the host doesn't include vote counts...

 

[Blazade]

Yeah texas i was trying to get the pancake counterwagon started hours before you started the shubaka one, that's what I changed from.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

You were on Moody at the time you unvoted

Also I didn't start the shubaka wagon, I was an early vote on it

 

[internet]

lynch texas: blazade, martin, former (3)
vote former: texas (1)
martin: asek (1)

 

[Blazade]

You were on Moody at the time you unvoted

Also I didn't start the shubaka wagon, I was an early vote on it

Ah, I must have gotten frustrated and given up trying to convince people lol. However it was timed I distinctly remember your vote having clout at the time.

In any case lynching former is ok by me but if we leave martin out it doesn't play around the martin pblade faction as well as lynching him does.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Best play is a double lynch of Martin and Former

 

[Former]

Lynching former is not okay by me :(

Though seriously, I wish I had been cleared by whydon or whatever other inspects we had in this game. Since looking at the roles we have in this game (and taking all claims as honest) then the only way scum can win is to remove me by lynch.

Especially since they have a redirect (I'm still assuming this as there were originally 2-3 claims so even with whydons flip it doesn't explain the extra ones), there is extra motivation for a scum to remove me since if it comes down to a 1v1 situation, I autowin, meaning even if go 7 > 5 > 3 without lynching or killing the scum, town still wins since the scum can't allows it to be 1v1 with me. Now if you have legit scumreads on me, that's fair. But I do want to make the case that the ideal scum play rn would be to lynch me asap before the game goes down further.

 

[Blazade]

yeah i'm sticking with the original plan. We'll have time yet to lynch Former

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Aight then, if that's the will of the town. Just don't fuck this up at the end, I've put way too much effort into the game to lose now.

btw if I'm getting lynched double lynch is 100% the way to go, don't waste a single kill on a town mislynch

 

[Former]

Okay, so random shower thoughts on the subject.

7 people, 2 confirmed. So the most likely scum options are:

Texas
Texas/Martin
Martin/Pblade
Former Hope
Blazade

Of those options, the best lynch is the one that could feasibly clear people or eliminate other options.

So imo, of those the most ideal (if we were to do a double lynch...) is Texas/Martin since in this case, if both are scum town win* (or if they have an ability that would hamper it, at least they get outed) (*hopefully). If Martin is scum and Texas is town, we lynch pblade next. Or if for some reason both divine roles are town (unlikely), then it comes down to either blazade or me and whoever else is alive then deciding.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

For the last time I'm not a fkin divine being

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

And again if you're looking to clear for clears then Martin's flip clears me by confirming whether or not there's a joat faction so the optimal double lynch is Martin with either blazade or former, of which the most suspect is former

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Also wtf is this

So imo, of those the most ideal (if we were to do a double lynch...) is Texas/Martin since in this case, if both are scum town win* (or if they have an ability that would hamper it, at least they get outed) (*hopefully).

You were adamantly against double lynching. You outright stated it was a scummy thing to do. Moreover why do both me and martin have to be scum for town to win. The entire point is that there's only one threat left to town. And I'm making particular notice that you're using the word scum, when it's far more likely all scum are dead and there's a neutral left. Good job parroting my reasoning for double lynching as outing scum though.

All in all, I really really don't like the plan of a multi lynch when there's still a faction of some sort, maybe with one person, maybe two (though almost certainly not 3 or they've already won with 6/7 people, unless we lynch right) and multi lynches in general being very easily screwable for a scum to use. I think/feel like I'm basically rambling here, but basically what I'm trying to say is

1. Multilynching is always a bad idea as seen by the haruno stunt
2. There's almost certainly a divine faction given the game hasn't ended with fairy's death, the mafia inspect/announce and then haruno's later insistence of a/the neutral.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Oh, and just to remind people who still think Martin or I are the last town threat

Remember that there's a killing role attached. And that there's a redirect that we know has been used and that we haven't seen flipped.

So you have to believe that Martin has:
A) A revive
B) A day skip
C) A lynch direct

AND a night kill, AND a redirect on top of that


or you have to believe that I have:
A) Cop one shot
B) Tracker one-shot
C) watcher one shot
D) bodyguard one shot
E) vigilante one shot
F) role block one shot

AND a night kill AND a redirect on top of that


vs former who is apparently only a conditional vigilante, or blazade with his weird anti-one shot role

 

[Former]

You were adamantly against double lynching. You outright stated it was a scummy thing to do. Moreover why do both me and martin have to be scum for town to win. The entire point is that there's only one threat left to town. And I'm making particular notice that you're using the word scum, when it's far more likely all scum are dead and there's a neutral left. Good job parroting my reasoning for double lynching as outing scum though.

Adamant is a very strong word lol. I am in general still pretty against it and tbh would rather just lynch you, but looking at the numbers now that paperblade is actually confirmed to be alive, it does make sense I suppose as we have time (and plus, it does actually help the game go by a bit faster I suppose).

Also yes, scum. General term to apply to people not aligned with town that want town dead...? Not sure what you are trying to argument bait here...

The entire point is that there's only one threat left to town.

This post seems off as there's been absolutely no indication that's the case. I mean, in my post I outline several different combinations of possibilities of a 2 person team still existing. All in all, I'm going to treat this as a scumslip and it really does further the case Texas might be a one person scum team.

As for roles, let's not even get into whats feasible at this point....not after all the madness this game

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

If this game is 4 scum, 5 neutrals, 12 town I'll eat my hat

4/4/13 or 5/3/13 is already pushing it

 

[Blazade]

I hadn't ruled out Martin good, you evil yet so lynching Former first isn't optimal to me.

Do we have confirmation that a town was redirected? I forget bu all I remember is Haruno claiming that as scum

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

I forget who exactly but haruno claimed he was redirected after someone else did which was used as a major point against him as proof of lying

 

[Former]

I swear Aubisio did sometime that same day but I may be mistaken (and I'm sure as hell not wading back through all of those pages).

ie Aubisio, did you claim redirected at some point?

 

[Blazade]

wasn't the other person vanillish?

 

[Former]

I honestly don't even remember, but maybe it would be worth going back if someone can remember when about or what in game day the claim was made.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Aubisio thought he did but we determined he wasn't, it was someone else. Possible Fort colors