You would be careful about being optimistic about a 50/50/90 guy doing well in the fourth round? Yeah it is not a mortal lock, but even if you put Lebron and a help guy on him all game, the Mavericks have other guys who can score. Even if they do put Lebron and a help guy on him, it looks like Dirk really has developed his shot into being "unguardable" due to the angles. The Bulls only had Rose who was an offensive threat and not a bad defender... (Boozer being a wildly negative impact on that series, much to my incorrect guess). Chandler is not going to have 40% shooting games like Noah, come on. The Mavericks guard well except against big men, and since Dirk > Bosh and Chandler > all of the corpses on the Heat, I really am not worried. The Celtics were on dead legs, the Bulls collapsed offensively, and the 76ers were not ready for this year's playoffs. You have seen the Heat win on their three on five strategy, but they got big contributions from the shit players this series and had a very easy defensive setup / Bulls never did anything offensively to counter it. The Mavericks can score on you with everyone but Haywood basically...remember despite Wade and Lebron existing, it is incredibly likely that the Mavericks will outshoot the Heat by 1-2% averaged across the series. This is not a series the Heat are going to like, even if they end up winning it.