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Data Official Smogon University Simulator Statistics — November 2013

Discussion in 'Smogon Metagames' started by Antar, Dec 3, 2013.

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  1. trc

    trc mon frère
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    Nov 16, 2013
    I personally think that with many new threats and buffed pokemon, but still a lot of older pokemon that work well in OU, maybe the cut off threshold should be a bit lower than 3.41%, such as maybe 2.41? Just a suggestion.
    Shrew likes this.
  2. Magnemite

    is a Site Staff Alumnusis a Super Moderator Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus

    Aug 20, 2013
    This will (probably) never happen. 3.41% comes from the likelihood that you will have a 50% chance of seeing a Pokemon in every 20 battles. UU gets more powerful each generation, often being more comparable to the previous generation's OU than its UU. This may become even more true this generation if Politoed, Ninetales, and Hippowdon all become UU.

    Lowering the cutoff would also increase the number of Pokemon in any given tier that are subpar choices in OU, mainly thanks to being outclassed. BW Jolteon is a good example, as there were few reasons to use it over Thundurus-T, so it was generally considered a subpar option. Lowering the cutoff would only make this more common. (Why would I use Noivern, for example, in OU when I could use any of the other 6 dragons in the tier?)
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2013
    Minus likes this.


    Apr 26, 2006
    I do understand where you are coming from. I was here when we were deciding where the cut-off would be. Infact, one of the things that was looked at was the size of the OU tier in previous generations, compared to the overall pool of Pokemon. I can't remember the exact values (and they've adjusted the tiers a bit since, so I can't check) but I think Gen I OU was about 15 (so about 10% of the overall pool), Gen II was about 25 (so about 10% of the overall pool again), Gen III was 30-something at the time iirc (so a bit less than 10% of the overall pool). We had a formula, with variable "n", and we had to decide on what "n" would be to determine where the cut off would be, or how popular a Pokemon should be to be considered "OU". In the end 20 was chosen for "n". Something I agreed with, since at the time it gave us an OU size closest to 50 (19 and under would've been less, 21 and over would've been more), and that was fairly consistent with the trends in previous generations (not to mention 20, 50 and 10 are all "nice" numbers, which isn't important from a statistical point of view, but it's convenient). (NOTE: This was the reasoning of myself and various others, but there were also other reasons why people decided on "20"). Of course, the size of OU did shrink a bit during Gen IV, I think ending up in the low 40's by the end of the generation.

    So, my point is, whenever this suggestion is brought up, people usually say the cut-off can't be changed because the formula we used is set in stone, but OU didn't have to be based around 1 in 20 battles. Smogon decided the definition of OU. We could've easily chosen 19 or 23 or something. It was completely up to Smogon at the time, and therefore it's not like it couldn't be changed from generation to generation. It's not a value that's ingrained into nature. It's not like we're trying to change the value of pi.

    Another thing brought up was that if each usage tier covers a larger amount of Pokemon, then by the time we get down to NU there'll be a larger number of the overall pool or Pokemon that are "relevent" in one of the metagames. In Gen V there were hundreds of Pokemon that didn't see significant usage in any of the four tiers.

    However, although I do understand the reasoning for the OU cut-off to be lowered, I don't think it will be changed, or even needs to be. It was suggested in Gen V and the decision was made not to change it. Also, over the past couple of generations there's already been a lot of complaining about certain less viable Pokemon managing to hang around in the 40's and have OU status, so lowering the cut-off in Gen V (or this gen) wouldn't have helped with that at all. It would just give more less viable OU Pokemon included in the tier for people to whine about.

    So, to sum up. I understand what you're saying, but the cut-off will stay the same. It won't be changed (and doesn't need to be).

    Under the way we currently calculate tiers, UU does get more powerful each generation. However, they used to actually try and make UU a similar power to the previous generation's UU (that was achieved by having ever-larger BL lists each gen). Something which was changed mid-Gen IV.

    Here's a thread discussing all this in Gen V: http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/tier-list-underusage-cutoff.85957/

    There were numerous discussions from Gen IV on this too (some outside of Policy Review for standard members to discuss too), but I can't find any of them atm.
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2013
  4. Calm_Mind_Latias


    Aug 20, 2013
    Compared to Gen 5, has the usage of Stone Edge increased (due to Talonflame's existence)? It would seem that in Gen 5, one's answer to Volcarona was a Scarfcomp EQ or Stone Edge or a rain-boosted Hydro Pump or Surf from Keldeo. Normally, I would avoid using Stone Edge (I use Scald on my Greninja instead of Hydro Pump) but it seems that an 80% chance for an OHKO is the best proposition if you lost the Battle of the Rocks.
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2013
  5. trc

    trc mon frère
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    Nov 16, 2013
    Just a question. If a pokemon is KOd by Pursuit by switching out, would in the checks and counters section, say it was KOd by a pokemon or that it switched out of a pokemon, you know, in the percentages.
  6. Mettie7


    Mar 20, 2010
    I would assume since the switch was not successful it would count as a KO for the Pokemon who used Pursuit, don't quote me on that though
  7. Fish and Chips

    Fish and Chips

    Nov 29, 2013
    So when everyone stops wanting to try out their new toys, things settle down, and Kyogre and some of the others are in the regular meta game again, do you think Xerneas will still be at the top of ubers?
  8. Alejandro36


    Dec 11, 2013
    That doesn't any make sense since you can obviously use UU and even NU pokemon in OU if you want. They are just not so good there. Reducing the cut off threshold would not increase variety in OU since people are still going to use the top threats, it would only make UU less varied because more things would be banned from it.

    Also, borderline is when a pokemon becomes banned from UU but still doesn't get used a lot in OU, right? Because I always found it interesting that banning something from OU made a pokemon Uber but banning it from UU did not make it OU.
  9. trc

    trc mon frère
    is a Site Staff Alumnusis a Smogon Social Media Contributor Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a Smogon Media Contributor Alumnus

    Nov 16, 2013
    Uber is a banlist first and a metagame second. and I want to argue with you but I am way to tired at the moment. Maybe tomorrow.
  10. popeMonniac


    Nov 11, 2013
    Just did a calculations to determine which are the biggest revenge killers/defensive threats on current metagame by using check/counter statistics from moveset statistics. If I have understood correctly only Pokemons that are switched on these Pokemons directly / after something has been killed is counted in these statistics so for example Chatot beating Blissey that switches in does not get counted in these statistics. So basically I just made a weighted sum and counted for every Pokemon counter values for every Pokemon when it appears in Checks/Counter section. The weight is the check% * usage of the countered Pokemon. So this should give information for what is the biggest combined defensive/revenge killing threat. Here are the values normalized so that the highest value is 100:

    0)Kangaskhan    100
    1)Volcarona    54.439578771428955
    2)Aegislash    46.382468033828026
    3)Azumarill    46.23143906695184
    4)Conkeldurr    40.65012975284508
    5)Breloom    40.216080787591665
    6)Gliscor    40.073528835607114
    7)Mawile    37.713311770531206
    8)Pinsir    37.34692159980917
    9)Talonflame    36.75035476916709
    10)Mamoswine    35.765583750136564
    11)Blissey    35.666816181278186
    12)Gyarados    34.81503482171289
    13)Heracross    32.891766645450566
    14)Chansey    32.34797273890988
    15)Quagsire    31.71271680462642
    16)Cloyster    30.850988944232803
    17)Weavile    30.524887076469263
    18)Venusaur    29.81659781450974
    19)Florges    29.597738493180632
    20)Scizor    28.898466255248472
    21)Lucario    28.27001233914167
    22)Clefable    27.922821956809106
    23)Sylveon    27.813519741639297
    24)Pyroar    27.677155646985675
    25)Bisharp    27.291676438383988
    26)Aerodactyl    27.156098428994284
    27)Charizard    26.833716418948367
    28)Medicham    26.087781893351334
    29)Togekiss    25.4970865020832
    30)Slowbro    24.70174428666991
    31)Donphan    24.616498737980255
    32)Chesnaught    24.443818062538227
    33)Chandelure    24.164848766668896
    34)Garchomp    23.966494229082418
    35)Snorlax    23.55903054604722
    36)Sigilyph    23.440663732896795
    37)Dragonite    22.400540477779657
    38)Tyranitar    22.1978859724107
    39)Houndoom    22.13731982474283
    40)Trevenant    21.5371577725226
    41)Metagross    21.22870483357345
    42)Malamar    19.99336681955494
    43)Excadrill    19.800074247911454
    44)Avalugg    18.611977527493
    45)Zygarde    18.502655766399673
    46)Delphox    18.111138329321534
    47)Gardevoir    17.689259667255012
    48)Goodra    17.1251482266529
    49)Alakazam    16.88176436768689
    50)Greninja    16.500207441018752
    51)Starmie    15.652302581416794
    52)Roserade    15.43512441059885
    53)Absol    15.41075825408111
    54)Ferrothorn    15.381362704199251
    55)Skarmory    15.109326190641129
    56)Scrafty    14.902798455050592
    57)Diggersby    14.38648081238908
    58)Ninetales    14.222992809624705
    59)Tangrowth    13.278135400105267
    60)Hawlucha    13.083833388928666
    61)Blastoise    12.959061310589771
    62)Magnezone    12.89147638936423
    63)Gogoat    12.887841357940056
    64)Gengar    12.49432553615531
    65)Barbaracle    12.312310476853954
    66)Hippowdon    12.219854346367399
    67)Blaziken    11.182787395852724
    68)Ditto    10.949183709752717
    69)Machamp    10.50187371937587
    70)Rhyperior    10.311302635674652
    71)Nidoking    10.133883031882107
    72)Zapdos    9.720236954532885
    73)Moltres    9.332578276333841
    74)Aggron    8.941627482006352
    75)Reuniclus    8.758117494262192
    76)Espeon    8.725788256334504
    77)Abomasnow    8.69279742218926
    78)Clawitzer    8.560756975100277
    79)Umbreon    8.285423708033631
    80)Tyrantrum    8.183185135864406
    81)Sableye    8.078337168720491
    82)Spiritomb    7.952757098876517
    83)Magmortar    7.688816872662543
    84)Arcanine    7.629653988509044
    85)Rhydon    7.0300123475440515
    86)Slurpuff    7.003436498084787
    87)Kabutops    6.94877231335052
    88)Mandibuzz    6.775671109824604
    89)Relicanth    6.7649179564911375
    90)Honchkrow    6.643218663661091
    91)Carracosta    6.616628287089843
    92)Vaporeon    6.44841971087832
    93)Gigalith    6.429581090458664
    94)Amoonguss    6.175943823756426
    95)Salamence    6.142018764334477
    96)Kecleon    6.0526704947359455
    97)Drapion    5.774893373145522
    98)Electivire    5.751723040749925
    99)Toxicroak    5.524516350170493
    100)Ludicolo    5.238276284980056
    101)Manectric    5.154749555684089
    102)Hydreigon    5.10685370630015
    103)Cinccino    4.731368838205283
    104)Leafeon    4.6573861932637906
    105)Lilligant    4.643202379600665
    106)Froslass    4.277758500139
    107)Shedinja    4.184335419029232
    108)Noivern    4.183732460670873
    109)Torkoal    4.044308561856594
    110)Gastrodon    4.00913089618558
    111)Crobat    3.951517931594069
    112)Doublade    3.903235311075477
    113)Chatot    3.8436046909774646
    114)Steelix    3.640896886282325
    115)Krookodile    2.95856616750116
    116)Haxorus    2.848485679053051
    117)Aromatisse    2.626373254797757
    118)Carbink    2.5551425014847684
    119)Alomomola    2.505037220540042
    120)Klefki    2.4518396946101197
    121)Vivillon    2.4196311832825916
    122)Exploud    2.2743629016353797
    123)Tentacruel    2.238465977454857
    124)Gallade    2.2224502206257113
    125)Jolteon    1.8660981302772701
    126)Muk              1.7560630320829298
    127)Galvantula    1.610037583296924
    128)Yanmega    1.526235038100663
    129)Dragalge    1.4056711499241947
    130)Crawdaunt    0.6046983785840095
    131)Ampharos    0.556473396152173
    132)Smeargle    0.24059839099633043
    133)Politoed    0.049739356785439046
    Looking the results, it was not very surprising to find Kangaskhan at the top place, but how far behind it leaves other Pokemons is rather impressive, especially since Kangaskhan is mainly a sweeper and it still outshinies everything in its "sidejob". Also I was quite surprised about the volcarona at 2nd place but after that there I don't think there are very surprising Pokemon at the top except maybe Conkeldurr (4th) and Breloom(5th). Both have strong priorities though and Breloom probably causes a lot of switches due to Spore so not that surprising but a little unexpected that they are above Talonflame imo. Here is also a little comparison to 5th gen statistics where the same calculations produce following top20:

    0)Volcarona    100.0
    1)Heatran    79.67063500833208
    2)Conkeldurr    68.79282281815158
    3)Garchomp    63.83712216213566
    4)Dragonite    63.61589212217449
    5)Weavile    61.88158338132663
    6)Toxicroak    58.470272114646185
    7)Breloom    57.89255294057381
    8)Starmie    54.95470477969308
    9)Gyarados    52.410641987677735
    10)Terrakion    50.57170423856838
    11)Salamence    48.89181918340736
    12)Ferrothorn    46.13466995087659
    13)Chandelure    45.812858670676995
    14)Ninetales    45.07177139449622
    15)Cloyster    44.5386236083649
    16)Mamoswine    44.51391889099865
    17)Alakazam    43.924667328100085
    18)Venusaur    40.31112717452659
    19)Porygon2    39.37131509764575
    20)Lucario    38.85787586407076
    When comparing to 6th gen statistic nothing seems very surprising. Here also the difference between the top threats are not so big which is again probably not so surprising considering the sheer power of Kangaskhan in current metagame.
    KaminkoMcMad likes this.
  11. TikiShades


    Oct 12, 2010
    How is Custap Berry being used on Skarmory when it isn't available yet?
  12. Metalhand


    Nov 26, 2013
    What usage precent making you a RU and what is the usage precent that making you NU?
  13. 6feetunder


    Nov 17, 2013
    RU and NU are not determined by OU stats. A Pokemon falls to RU if it doesn't get enough usage in UU, and it falls to NU if doesn't get enough usage in RU.
    Antar likes this.
  14. Antar

    is a Battle Server Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributor
    Official Data Miner

    Feb 17, 2010
    If I'm following what you wrote, then yes, that's correct. If X dies while opponent's Y is on the field, Y gets a point in favor of being a counter for X. However, if X died from a U-Turn or (I believe) residual damage after a switch, then Y does not get the kill (if I coded it correctly, then the Pokemon that switched out gets a "U-Turn KO," which isn't counted towards check/counter stats at all).

    You're either looking at the Pokebank stats--where all items were considered released--there was a mistake in PS, or Custap is indeed obtainable in X&Y (possibly through berry breeding).

    Anyway, I finally got around to writing that Mega stats script. Below are the weighted usage stats for on how many teams Pokemon X appears with an X-ite as its item:

    Pokebank OU:
    Kangaskhan        13.66529%
    Gengar             9.21951%
    Lucario            7.70874%
    Scizor             4.85764%
    Pinsir             4.63256%
    Mawile             4.27968%
    Charizard          3.94471%
    Tyranitar          3.28990%
    Venusaur           3.16426%
    Gyarados           2.91416%
    Garchomp           2.22640%
    Absol              2.12086%
    Alakazam           2.09645%
    Blastoise          1.92044%
    Aggron             1.41830%
    Blaziken           1.41616%
    Ampharos           1.08904%
    Banette            0.96058%
    Aerodactyl         0.70961%
    Abomasnow          0.56520%
    Pre-bank OU:
    Kangaskhan        14.54347%
    Gengar            10.52414%
    Lucario            6.59338%
    Scizor             5.09170%
    Mawile             4.96607%
    Charizard          4.31939%
    Tyranitar          3.73794%
    Pinsir             3.69467%
    Garchomp           3.69296%
    Venusaur           3.49329%
    Alakazam           3.29020%
    Gyarados           3.09914%
    Blastoise          2.64608%
    Absol              2.04608%
    Blaziken           1.76709%
    Aggron             1.71213%
    Ampharos           1.04145%
    Banette            0.94939%
    Aerodactyl         0.89976%
    Abomasnow          0.61477%
    Pokebank Ubers:
    Mewtwo            14.38022%
    Blaziken          12.02317%
    Scizor             4.70871%
    Gengar             4.47150%
    Kangaskhan         3.87404%
    Lucario            2.98102%
    Charizard          1.34180%
    Garchomp           1.16243%
    Tyranitar          1.10849%
    Mawile             0.98216%
    Alakazam           0.84736%
    Absol              0.82924%
    Venusaur           0.80220%
    Aggron             0.74847%
    Blastoise          0.70818%
    Gyarados           0.70312%
    Banette            0.67282%
    Pinsir             0.63264%
    Aerodactyl         0.30709%
    Abomasnow          0.26468%
    Ampharos           0.22871%
    Pre-bank Ubers:
    Blaziken          23.98555%
    Kangaskhan         9.80673%
    Mewtwo             9.11517%
    Gengar             8.41085%
    Scizor             6.09553%
    Garchomp           5.34032%
    Lucario            5.21209%
    Charizard          5.17936%
    Tyranitar          3.37227%
    Venusaur           3.21900%
    Alakazam           2.83488%
    Mawile             2.41049%
    Blastoise          2.35640%
    Gyarados           1.79663%
    Aggron             1.79516%
    Absol              1.29672%
    Pinsir             1.11067%
    Aerodactyl         0.83121%
    Ampharos           0.82381%
    Abomasnow          0.75988%
    Banette            0.51721%
    Pokebank Doubles:
    Kangaskhan        10.48143%
    Mawile             6.07691%
    Gengar             5.33285%
    Tyranitar          4.21858%
    Garchomp           3.99755%
    Scizor             3.87853%
    Lucario            3.64348%
    Abomasnow          2.44428%
    Blaziken           2.40476%
    Ampharos           2.36753%
    Venusaur           2.31849%
    Gyarados           2.26187%
    Alakazam           2.17223%
    Charizard          1.78345%
    Aggron             1.71527%
    Aerodactyl         1.69488%
    Blastoise          1.52798%
    Banette            1.41300%
    Absol              0.85674%
    Pinsir             0.84408%
    Mewtwo             0.04576%
    (I assume Mewtwo was temporarily unreleased..?)

    Pre-bank Doubles:
    Kangaskhan        10.53092%
    Mawile             8.84385%
    Gengar             6.95682%
    Garchomp           4.63548%
    Scizor             4.42127%
    Lucario            3.78552%
    Tyranitar          3.66604%
    Gyarados           3.55743%
    Venusaur           3.49153%
    Blaziken           3.17773%
    Alakazam           2.74562%
    Abomasnow          2.70377%
    Charizard          2.69587%
    Aggron             2.33820%
    Blastoise          2.33568%
    Ampharos           2.26857%
    Aerodactyl         1.49285%
    Banette            1.14927%
    Pinsir             1.06594%
    Absol              0.85803%
    Mewtwo             0.02813%
    VGC 2014:
    Kangaskhan        20.61688%
    Mawile            16.67104%
    Scizor             6.61170%
    Gengar             6.05223%
    Tyranitar          5.96901%
    Venusaur           5.02209%
    Abomasnow          4.89326%
    Gyarados           4.74741%
    Garchomp           3.66578%
    Blastoise          3.35088%
    Lucario            2.83228%
    Aerodactyl         2.55001%
    Ampharos           1.97039%
    Charizard          1.67272%
    Banette            1.63478%
    Aggron             1.43072%
    Pinsir             1.02100%
    Alakazam           0.84716%
    Absol              0.38144%
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2014
  15. Antar

    is a Battle Server Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributor
    Official Data Miner

    Feb 17, 2010
    Oh, and December's stats will be posted either tomorrow or Friday depending on how long my stats-counting scripts take to run.
  16. TikiShades


    Oct 12, 2010
    There must have been some mistake. I was looking at pre-Bank. If Serebii is to be believed, its not available yet.
  17. Antar

    is a Battle Server Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributor
    Official Data Miner

    Feb 17, 2010
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