jas and I had a brief discussion about the above, then Doug shared some of his opinions on irc today. Here's the log of the conversation, edited for clarity and conciseness. I've bolded what I consider to be the most critical points and what I think ought to be discussed.
So, I guess the question is one of balance. In my interpretation there are three conflicting factors:
Single round IRV answers 1 and 2 pretty well, and there are worse methods for 3 in terms of complexity and difficulty to understand. Accuracy comes into question when a lot of voters rank a small number of options. Engagement comes into question when voters are forced to rank a certain number of options.
Birkal's proposed 2-rounded PBV + runoff is accurate (arguably redundant, but a failsafe at least), a bit less efficient, but the second vote should be more engaging and helps preserve some of our current tradition of having multiple polls. It's possible that having too many rounds becomes boring and reduces engagement.
Our old method, roughly: (MBV optional) -> IRV -> 3 candidate SBV -> 2 candidate SBV
as we've discussed, is flawed but probably was just as accurate as the above two, if only for the final winner. It was also more inefficient. I feel as though engagement was good sometimes when the last two polls were close, but it could also be too drawn out.
Sorry to throw even more things into the mix, but I hope this is a better framework for us to use while discussing the pros and cons of these and potentially other voting methods.
<paintseagull> I think if we went with single vote IRV we'd have to try pretty hard to educate our voters better about what not ranking everything means
I'd rather do that, and hope for the best, accepting that we may not be perfectly gauging the community consensus, than delete votes that don't have the required # of votes
<jas61292> Yeah, I am not a huge fan of forcing people to rank everything, or even a certain number. I'd rather just STRONGLY recommend ranking them all, and make clear how it works.
<paintseagull> Doug are you going to post in our polling discussion?
<DougJustDoug> I have been meaning to, but I just haven't carved out the time to make a proper post. Because there is NO WAY i can make a short post on a topic like that. I have way too many opinions and historical context to do anything other than a wall of text!
<paintseagull> i thought you might!
<DougJustDoug> It hate it when I KNOW i'm gonna be long winded about something
Normally I make long posts when I intend to just post a paragraph or two
But when I KNOW it will be long, I tend to never start it in the first place!
<paintseagull> i guess i just have 2 questions: 1) are we being overly naive in not taking enough of the history into account, and 2) are you ok with changing things up
<jas61292> But yeah, I've been hoping to get a post from someone who was around and part of the decisions to make things the way they are now.
<DougJustDoug> I'm almost always OK with changing things up. I'd rather change and fail than let resistance to change become a habit in CAP.
But the history angle is another story
Because we have a LOT of history in trying to make polling as effective as it can be
And I think the crux of difficuly with polling is balancing the "correctness" of the poll with the "community building" aspects of the poll.
The two tend to conflict quite a bit
<paintseagull> yeah, community building is not really being spoken of at the moment
whatever method we choose should be accessible
community building sounds a lot better than "spectacle"
<DougJustDoug> A close poll is great advertising for the CAP project.
Hell, it's a lot of fun!
But it really fucks with getting quality polling results.
It encourages bandwagoning, it encourages cheating, and it amps up dispute drama.
<jas61292> That is one of the reasons I like the idea of just using IRV. Unlike single choice votes, its a lot harder for the average person to just look on and see how close it is. Its possible, sure, but not so obvious. At the same time though, it can still be shown and have that attention drawing factor for the average person.
<DougJustDoug> So, it's a tough nut to crack. We don't want to make polls a boring, hidden process -- even if it yields the best result for the pokemon we are creating. That would be the proverbial tree falling in the forest with no one there to hear it.
But we also don't want the spectacle and easy access to make the process an unfair mess. That discourages quality participants from engaging in the competition. Which, in turn, ultimately hurts overall project perception and activity levels.
<paintseagull> in that case the key to me seems to be compromise
in which case I still think 1 PBV -> 1 runoff is a good option
I think that is the thing about single round IRV that bothers me that i couldn't quite put my finger on
multiple polls feel like a security blanket because it feels like a very sturdy community exercise with lots of steps
single round IRV seems so cold.. unloving.. harsh and unforgiving
i don't think any sense of spectacle should be more important than getting an accurate or rational poll result but i do think it's important to consider that polling is how we recruit new cap participants a lot of the time
<DougJustDoug> I think we lose a lot of community benefit if the polling process hinges exclusively on a single round of voting that requires a complex computer program to decipher who wins. People can't get immersed in a race where they are completely guessing as to who is winning or losing when reviewing the poll thread.
A head-to-head race, or a race with a few participants and single voting is very easy for people to understand and follow.
<jas61292> Well, I personally see the spectacle being more of something deriving from the time period and the contestants than the number of polls. One tension filled poll, to me, is much more exciting than two boring ones.
<DougJustDoug> I agree it is completely subjective as to what is "exciting" or not. Multiple rounds of voting, particularly in cases where everyone knows damn well which option is going to win from the first round or two, is not exciting at all.
<DougJustDoug> I hated the old click polls more than anyone. It was a nightmare in terms of encouraging good voting behavior. But there is no doubt that it was accessible as hell and everyone loved checking in on the poll thread to see the bar graph indicating the state of the race. CAP poll threads got views out the ass!
Even boring steps of the process
People would click into the poll threads just to see the current results
That is great advertising for CAP. Bottom line, this is an internet community. And on the internet, page views are king.
<paintseagull> PBV is nice in that the top 2 should result in an exciting final poll
<jas61292> Click polls are awful, in my opinion. Not just for here, but anywhere, just due to how forums set them up. Most people vote before they even see what the OP says.
So, I guess the question is one of balance. In my interpretation there are three conflicting factors:
- Accuracy - the poll should provide the most accurate representation of the community's opinion. (IRV, PBV are good for this. I read briefly about more arguably more accurate methods with much more obscure counting algorithms)
- Efficiency - the poll should take up the least amount of time and not require much moderation (IRV is best for this)
- Community engagement - the poll should be fun to participate in and help to encourage new participants (SBV is best for this)
Single round IRV answers 1 and 2 pretty well, and there are worse methods for 3 in terms of complexity and difficulty to understand. Accuracy comes into question when a lot of voters rank a small number of options. Engagement comes into question when voters are forced to rank a certain number of options.
Birkal's proposed 2-rounded PBV + runoff is accurate (arguably redundant, but a failsafe at least), a bit less efficient, but the second vote should be more engaging and helps preserve some of our current tradition of having multiple polls. It's possible that having too many rounds becomes boring and reduces engagement.
Our old method, roughly: (MBV optional) -> IRV -> 3 candidate SBV -> 2 candidate SBV
as we've discussed, is flawed but probably was just as accurate as the above two, if only for the final winner. It was also more inefficient. I feel as though engagement was good sometimes when the last two polls were close, but it could also be too drawn out.
Sorry to throw even more things into the mix, but I hope this is a better framework for us to use while discussing the pros and cons of these and potentially other voting methods.