Scarf Heatran EVs

[RaikouLover]

Link to set for convenience.

I had a very controversial epiphany the other day when I was putting Heatran onto my team. So here is the controversial question:

Why is ScarfTran running Max Speed?

Heatran is in a tier of its own speed wise, and with most other offensive or Scarf sets the maximum is used to speed tie with a pokemon of same base speed. In this case, Speed tying with another Scarf Heatran is laughable for obvious reasons so I'm inclined to think that 56 EVs are being wasted.

56 Atk / 252 SpA / 200 Speed, Naive / Hasty will hit 396 with a Scarf, outrunning Jolteon and Aerdoactyl with the Choice Scarf, and can at least boost Explosion by raising your attack by a decent 14 points.

But then I thought of a counter to that change? The metagame now revolves around ScarfTran's benchmark of 417, which makes a few things like Agility Metagross and Empoleon shoot for 418 or 420 (odd neutral Scarf P-Z maybe?). I don't know if this will make a big issue if ScarfTran considers lowering speed, since you have no speed Rotom sitting at 208 (always cool to outrun before an Agility!).

Then I frantically double checked as to what really lies between 396 and 417 and you get.. well.. nothing. Because there seems to be a void in the 270ish area where you either boost your nature to reach the 280s (Suicune, Jolly Gyarados) or you just stick with neutral and fall down to the 246ish area with Celebi / Zapdos and shit. The only thing that would possibly make sense would be if there were pokemon with a base speed stat of 75, which correct me if im wrong.. is non-existant. Well, research reveals Smeargle sits at 75. Fortunately, a Scarf Smeragle is probably Spored something and rendered itself useless seeing as it can't touch Heatran at all. I thought about bringing such an issue before QC.. since there is a strong case for a waste of ALOT of EVs.

 

[eric the espeon]

This seemed interesting and important enough to warrant discussion in it's own thread rather than a post in small changes, so I split it to a thread here.

The most common thing you encounter which the max speed is important against is opposing ScarfTran. However, this matters little unless you are revenge killing and they are trapped into Earth Power which is a fairly specific situation. And a choice locked ground move can often be taken advantage of, rather than risked as a 50/50 speed tie.

Lowering the investment of sets which aim to just beat ScarfTran would not be brought in unless and until the playerbase responded and stopped using max speed ScarfTran.

Additionally, is Atk the best stat to invest in? Putting those Evs into HP would give you over 4% more durability on both sides, which is fairly notable. Are there any specific KOs that the extra 14 Atk give?

 

[Setsuna]

Hm, this is an interesting catch. I think, that probably the most important Pokemon to keep in mind is DD Kingdra (neutral nature 252 Spe EVs) that hits 403 of Speed after a Dragon Dance. Using 224 Spe EVs solve this and make Heatran able to attack first after a DD. Other than that, I don´t think that full speed investment is needed.

 

[_Freak_]

Here are some calcs (All for explosion and with the smogon-calculator):

0 EVs vs max/max bold Blissey: 83.2% - 97.9% (Has a fair chance to survive after rocks)
56 EVs vs max/max bold Blissey: 88.7% - 104.3% (always a KO with rocks)

0 EVs vs 248/248 impish Gyra: 70.5% - 83%
56 EVs :74.8% - 88.3% (pretty much the same as with blissey)

With intimidate:
0 EVs vs 156/96 Gyara (bulky DD): 64.1% - 75.4% ( very small chance to kill it on the switchin)
56 EVs : 67.8% - 80% (far better chances, nearly a guaranteed KO with sandstorm)

e:
0 EVs vs 188/252 bold Vaporeon: 72.1% - 84.8% (impossible to get it on the switch)
56 EVs: 76.6% - 90.2% (small chance for a KO, again better chances with SS)

0 EVs vs standart Curselax 168/120 relaxed: 78.3% - 92.2%
56 EVs: 83.3% - 98.2%

e²: I've done a few calcs with HP EVs but beside "being more bulky is always useful" I've only found very specific examples. With 56 EVs Heatran always survives a Focusblast from timid Gengar without LO/Specs (82.5% - 97.3% vs 86.1% - 101.5%), but with all those Scizors nobody plays Scarfgar anymore.

e³ speed (I always assume 252 EVs): With this spread you lose all mons with a speed between 199 and 208 (neutral base 50-54; positive base 43-45) and a +2 boost (neutral Aggron, neutral Registeel, neutral Huntail/Gorebyss, neutral Tangrowth, positve Cradily/Armaldo, positive Marowak .) All these pokemon learn Rockpolish or get a weatherboost. Marowak is "often" played together with a Ninjask. However, most of the them are never used (i don't mean the tier^^) so they wont cause many problems for scarftran.

You also won't outspeed Pokemon with a speed between 264 and 277 and a +1 boost anymore. That are all Pokemon with a basespeed from 71-76 and a positve nature ( Hitmonchan, Nidoqueen, Claydol, Beedril, Absol, Kingler, Delibird, Smeargle, Bibarel and Honchkrow) or with a basespeed from 83-87 and a neutral nature ( the most relevant are Hitmonlee, Rotom-A, Cresselia, Suicune, Heracross, Kingdra, Nidoking, Toxicroak, Quilfish and Magmortar).

You also won't outspeed a positive Electrode and a neutral Deoxys.

That are just some stats which should help the QC-Team to get to a justified conclusion. I hope you don't have any problems with my english or the poor presentation.
My personal opinion is that the higher Attack is worth the small drop in speed.

 

[Megan_Fox]

Hm, this is an interesting catch. I think, that probably the most important Pokemon to keep in mind is DD Kingdra (neutral nature 252 Spe EVs) that hits 403 of Speed after a Dragon Dance. Using 224 Spe EVs solve this and make Heatran able to attack first after a DD. Other than that, I don´t think that full speed investment is needed.

well seeing that dd kingdra is a pokemon that will only raise in usage due to salamences uber status, that enough might be a good reason. although i do think there is good reasoning for the attack evs, I dont think its worth it. The thing is, if your running 224 speed evs, your already close enough to 252 so i would just run max speed for the speed tie anyhow

 

[eric the espeon]

Max Speed Kingdra was only used about half the time on the suspect ladder, and there it was the 20th most used Pokemon. Heatran is also a far from ideal Kingdra check unless it has Dragon Pulse, which is less common in an environment without Salamence.

 

[Setsuna]

Max Speed Kingdra was only used about half the time on the suspect ladder, and there it was the 20th most used Pokemon. Heatran is also a far from ideal Kingdra check unless it has Dragon Pulse, which is less common in an environment without Salamence.

Oh yeah, I just mentioned the possibility. Even though Heatran is far from being an ideal Kingdra check, it can still Explode on it in a pinch situation, or revenge kill it with Earth Power / Dragon Pulse. This is a pretty dedicated situation, that added to the stats that you just brought up, ete, make this option of running those extra Speed EVs kind of useless, or debatable at least. I´d like to see what the other OU QCers have to say about all this.

 

[cim]

I think the entire reason Heatran speed crept back at the beginning of platinum was other Scarf Heatran. You can probably safely bring him down to max speed Kingdra. I mean, maybe it's not the best check, and maybe Kingdra isn't that common, but you won't care if you have 5 extra HP points or whatever if Kingdra outruns and OHKOs you.

 

[Legacy Raider]

RL I've always used that spread for scarfTran :P. The only reason max speed should be run is if you have inordinately large problems with Gyarados or opposing Heatran, in which case it's sometimes worth risking that Gyarados isn't Jolly so you can explode on it, and that you win the speed tie with other Heatran. However, if you're needing to rely on this gamble to check these Pokemon, you should really just be running a Vaporeon or something lol. Adamant DD nite is still outsped by this set, while Jolly DD nite can't be, so you're not losing anything there either.

 

[Scofield]

um, what? heatran vs heatran speed ties might be the most critical speed tie in the game now that mence is banned. yeah, scarftran vs scarftran is never perfectly ideal, but there will come a time when your only chance to win the battle is to win that speed tie. and i find that that situation happens way way more than those 56 attack ev's will ever help you. heatran was the most used pokemon in suspect last month with 37.56% usage, and there is no reason to believe that trend wouldn't continue on the standard ladder now. and 21% of those trans carried choice scarf. and 76% of all heatran ran max speed. i absolutely HATE conceding that you will always 100% of the time lose in a scarftran vs scaftran battle, I'd much rather have that 50% chance than do 5.5% more to blissey with explosion.

 

[Despotar]

um, what? heatran vs heatran speed ties might be the most critical speed tie in the game now that mence is banned. yeah, scarftran vs scarftran is never perfectly ideal, but there will come a time when your only chance to win the battle is to win that speed tie.

Not really, most of the time, you can switch to a levitator or flying type, or something that resist's earthpower. The majority of the time you'll have something (Blissey anyone?) that can survive a few EP's. I don't think tying other Trans is that important.

 

[Misa]

Would it be plausible for Heatran to run a +SpA nature instead of a +Spe nature in order to obtain more power? Heatran could just run something like 28 HP / 252 SpA / 228 Spe with a Rash Nature, and he can still outspeeds things like Infernape, Gengar, and Starmie.

(I wouldn't use Heatran to revenge-kill a 1+ DD Gyarados or a Dragonite anyways even if Heatran is Timid; there's always a chance that Gyarados or Dragonite might be Jolly instead of Adamant)

 

[eric the espeon]

Rash is currently listed as an option on the set. A spread with either 216 to beat +1 TTar, 208 to beat the positive base 115s, or 236 for the positive base 120s could well be worth mentioning to go with Rash.

 

[Megan_Fox]

Not really, most of the time, you can switch to a levitator or flying type, or something that resist's earthpower. The majority of the time you'll have something (Blissey anyone?) that can survive a few EP's. I don't think tying other Trans is that important.

While that maybe true alot of the time, it may not always necessarily be the case. you could easily lose those mons and have nothing to take a ep. There could easily be a time when you would have to rely/greatly benefit on winning that speed tie. Is it situational? yes. but so is 56 attack evs helping you kill an opposing mon. thats probably even less likely to happen

 

[Towelie]

Could the Evs go in hp to take on shit like scarf rotom better? just curious.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

I know for a fact that I will never lower the Speed on my Scarftran, simply because the fact that other people might max theirs means I wouldn't want to get eaten by opposing ScarfTran 100% of the time.

I have to oppose this change, simply because it's pretty much the epitome of "Speed Creep". Unless those Attack EVs score something specific, guaranteeing that opposing Scarftran will at best have a 50% chance to outspeed is massive. If the standard is 204, then people will start running 208, because the 1 point of Attack doesn't help for anything specific, and then it goes on down the line until you're back at Max Spe.

 

[Phantom_IV]

I have to oppose this change, simply because it's pretty much the epitome of "Speed Creep". Unless those Attack EVs score something specific, guaranteeing that opposing Scarftran will at best have a 50% chance to outspeed is massive. If the standard is 204, then people will start running 208, because the 1 point of Attack doesn't help for anything specific, and then it goes on down the line until you're back at Max Spe.

Aren't we generally against speed creep? Regardless, I don't consider it a huge disadvantage if you know your Heatran is slower. Consider that you have a scarf Heatran vs. scarf Heatran scenario. The player with the max speed Heatran will pick Earth Power by your logic, because that's why he maxed his speed, to go for the 50% chance. If you know yours is slower, it makes your decision rather easy. You know he'll use Earth Power, so you go for your ground immunity.

Additionally, it's not that common for it to be Scarf Heatran vs Scarf Heatran and neither are locked into a move yet. More often than not, one player just revenged and is probably stuck on Fire Blast or something. Personally, I'd rather have more assurance that I can take down that Gyarados or Dragonite with my Explosion.

 

[TubaKing]

I know for a fact that I will never lower the Speed on my Scarftran, simply because the fact that other people might max theirs means I wouldn't want to get eaten by opposing ScarfTran 100% of the time.

I have to oppose this change, simply because it's pretty much the epitome of "Speed Creep". Unless those Attack EVs score something specific, guaranteeing that opposing Scarftran will at best have a 50% chance to outspeed is massive. If the standard is 204, then people will start running 208, because the 1 point of Attack doesn't help for anything specific, and then it goes on down the line until you're back at Max Spe.

I think the best solution to this is to keep 252 Speed as the standard and mention somewhere in the analysis the benefits of running a slower Speed and more Attack or HP. This prevents the risk of speed creep while still letting players know that max Speed is only good for speeding-tying other ScarfTrans.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

Right. Stick the slower spread in AC, but let people know that the slower spread runs the risk of being outsped by opposing Heatran.

 

[Fuzznip]

Your proposed spread also loses to neutral-natured Choice Scarf Rotom-A and Heracross, even though they are not entirely common in the metagame. I'm going to agree with what everyone else has been saying to keep the current Heatran spread and make a mention of a slightly slower, more bulkier spread in the AC.

Also, I'll just point this out since I kind of hinted on it, you should use 236 Speed EVs so you can still outpace neutral-natured Choice Scarf Rotom-A and Heracross, as well as Jolly Choice Scarf Smeargle by one point. But I mean, why not just run 252 Speed to Speed tie with max Speed Heatran if you're going down that route? I doubt 20 EVs in HP or Attack or whatever is going to prove useful for anything.

 

[remlabmez]

If I were to lower speed like that id rather dump the EVs into HP, not sure what those attack evs are exactly doing.

 

[_Freak_]

If I were to lower speed like that id rather dump the EVs into HP, not sure what those attack evs are exactly doing.

I've posted earlier in this thread some calcs against common switchins :

0 EVs vs max/max bold Blissey: 83.2% - 97.9% (Has a fair chance to survive after rocks)
56 EVs vs max/max bold Blissey: 88.7% - 104.3% (always a KO with rocks)

0 EVs vs 248/248 impish Gyra: 70.5% - 83%
56 EVs :74.8% - 88.3% (pretty much the same as with blissey)

With intimidate:
0 EVs vs 156/96 Gyara (bulky DD): 64.1% - 75.4% ( very small chance to kill it on the switchin)
56 EVs : 67.8% - 80% (far better chances, nearly a guaranteed KO with sandstorm)

0 EVs vs 188/252 bold Vaporeon: 72.1% - 84.8% (impossible to get it on the switch)
56 EVs: 76.6% - 90.2% (small chance for a KO, again better chances with SS)

0 EVs vs standart Curselax 168/120 relaxed: 78.3% - 92.2%
56 EVs: 83.3% - 98.2%

Heatran makes good use of some extra Atk EVs.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

Thus why the spread is "notable", but the difference between outright killing something and leaving it at like 5% HP, especially when SR exists, isn't very big. The difference between losing to opposing Scarftran 100% of the time and losing to opposing Scarftran 50% of the time is humongous.

 

[_Freak_]

5% can be the difference between your Jolteon sweep or Blissey using Softboiled. Also having something as deathfodder makes predicting much easier and even if Gyara dies on the switchin it still cripples physical sweepers with intimidate.

However, I don't think theorymon will get us any further so we should simply test the new spread and we will see how often other (Scarf)trans will cause serious problems. I can say from experience that my Blissey can sometimes survive an explosion and make a great comeback.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

And I can say from personal experience that my Scarftran can get outsped by an opposing Scarftran and lose me the game. Guess which one is more common and more threatening.

Besides, it's not like I'm blocking the thing from being mentioned. There are obviously merits to using the slower spread and getting more power on your Explosion, such as securing the KO on Blissey after SR, but personally, I'd rather have the "don't lose to opposing Heatran" option rather than the "ko a spread that isn't used all the time 100% of the time after sr rather than just 33% of the time". That's pretty much the definition of an "alternate spread". However, it's just not worth dealing with when it secures your demise against people who don't choose to use the slow spread. List it in AC and call it a day.