Scarf Heatran EVs

[eric the espeon]

I have to oppose this change, simply because it's pretty much the epitome of "Speed Creep". Unless those Attack EVs score something specific, guaranteeing that opposing Scarftran will at best have a 50% chance to outspeed is massive. If the standard is 204, then people will start running 208, because the 1 point of Attack doesn't help for anything specific, and then it goes on down the line until you're back at Max Spe.

You appear to misunderstand the problem with Speed Creep. It is only Speed Creep in analyses which is a true problem, in the metagame is is simply an unavoidable and natural extra layer to teambuilding. Including this spread would in no way whatsoever cause Speed Creep of the kind we wish to avoid. The only problem would come if the analysis decided to add 4 EVs just to beat 200, then 208 to beat 204, which would not be allowed by the guidelines soon to be put in place. A spread which sets out to beat max speed base 130s is entirely allowable and not harmful in any way. Additionally, the idea that one point in a non-Speed stat is not useful for a specific KO/survival of a key attack, and so it is useless, is flawed. Each point slightly raises the chances of a large number of KOs and lowers the chance of getting KOed by specific combinations of attacks.

The idea that you are losing to opposing Heatran "100%" of the time is misleading. The only situation where maxing speed to tie foe Heatran is helpful is the following: if the foe is a max speed choice scarf Heatran which is already locked into Earth Power (or came in with a double switch) and you have no ground immunities, or one of the huge number of common Pokemon who can take an Earth Power comfortably. Even against the no. 1 Pokemon, it's an incredibly specific scenario. Of course it can happen, and if you play enough it will, but those extra Atk EVs (or as rem says HP, even a few extra points in HP helps out surprisingly often, though those Atk do help with a few key KOs) seem like a better choice in the long run.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

Whatever, it doesn't make sense to get all pedantic over the terminology. The Speed EVs have a tangible benefit (guaranteeing at least tying or outspeeding opposing Scarftran) while the Attack EVs simply increase the likelihood of a situation that doesn't really matter in the long run. Scarftran blowing up on Blissey must be done on the switch, so it's unlikely that leaving it at 5% is ever relevant due to the threat of Protect and the fact that Leftovers will screw your chances of scoring that KO anyway. All the others are significantly less relevant, and Heatran's stunning usage during Suspect makes the likelihood of that speed tie significantly more likely, and as such, more important.

 

[eric the espeon]

Whatever, it doesn't make sense to get all pedantic over the terminology.

If you are calling this change speed creep and saying it has the problems of speed creep when it is quite clearly not speed creep, and therefore does not have those problems, then it is unhelpful in the extreme both for this set and for players/writers understanding of the problems with speed creep. It is not a simple matter of terminology.

The Speed EVs have a tangible benefit (guaranteeing at least tying or outspeeding opposing Scarftran) while the Attack EVs simply increase the likelihood of a situation that doesn't really matter in the long run. Scarftran blowing up on Blissey must be done on the switch, so it's unlikely that leaving it at 5% is ever relevant due to the threat of Protect and the fact that Leftovers will screw your chances of scoring that KO anyway. All the others are significantly less relevant, and Heatran's stunning usage during Suspect makes the likelihood of that speed tie significantly more likely, and as such, more important.

Just because it is more easy to pin down the specific situations where extra Speed helps does not mean they are greater than the advantages of more Attack or Speed. "simply increase the likelihood of a situation" is all that you get from Speed Evs. You change the chance of doing well in one extremely specific scenario from 0% to 50%. The Atk Evs have a less huge but still highly significant effect in a fair number of situations, and the HP Evs have a smaller effect in a very large number of situations. As has been stated many times the idea that specific examples of important calcs are required for an investment in a stat other than speed to be worthwhile is flawed. Adding to non Speed Evs gives you a better chance in many different specific situations, speed helps a lot with a few situations. Unless those few are important and common, other stats become the priority.

 

[RaikouLover]

Was out of town for a day so first time reading over this thread. I suppose what happens doesn't matter either way, I merely brought that up for discussion in subjective changes because I personally NEVER EVER have been in a situation where I would knowingly stick my Scarf Heatran against another Scarf Heatran and hoped for a 50% chance for Earth Power because of a few reasons. A) Unboosted Earth Power is piss weak and something can ALWAYS take it. B) Its a choice-locked ground move, so obvious. Any other time, that Max Speed is completely irrelevant and not useful at all. That is all I was pointing out. That small situation really never happens where it is ScarfTran vs. ScarfTran already locked into Earth Power deciding a match. Any other ScarfTran vs. Scarftran one will be coming in on the other move, etc.

The only benefit I can see to keeping Max Speed really is just having the "comfort" knowing you can use your Heatran against any other Tran that you don't see leftovers on. But that still can lose you the battle if A) you lose the speed tie or B) they have Shucca Berry which is not uncommon, in whichcase you lose anyway (unless it KOs through I can't remember).

 

[kokoloko]

Not sure my opinion is worth much since I don't have a 'reputation' for being a good player around here, but personally, I have always used the spread in the OP on ScarfTran. Not once have I found myself in a situation where I regretted not running max speed.

 

[DahliaSky]

Not sure my opinion is worth much since I don't have a 'reputation' for being a good player around here, but personally, I have always used the spread in the OP on ScarfTran. Not once have I found myself in a situation where I regretted not running max speed.

I completely agree. The only time i could ever see this comming up is if i ran a team with 2 ground weaknesses (1 other than heatran) and those two were my only pokemon left. Being put in that kind of a situation, however, would mostly be 1) extremely situational, as i normally try not to have 2 weaknesses to such a common metagame type and 2) in that extremely rare situation the benifit is small, giving me only a 50% chance of success anyway.

Heatran, even with dragon pulse, is a horrid counter to kingdra... the only good way is to explode, which means you have to properly predict that it's a DD and not rain... which is also decently common and easily outspeeds and ohkos any heatran.

0 EVs vs max/max bold Blissey: 83.2% - 97.9% (Has a fair chance to survive after rocks)
56 EVs vs max/max bold Blissey: 88.7% - 104.3% (always a KO with rocks)

0 EVs vs 248/248 impish Gyra: 70.5% - 83%
56 EVs :74.8% - 88.3% (pretty much the same as with blissey)

With intimidate:
0 EVs vs 156/96 Gyara (bulky DD): 64.1% - 75.4% ( very small chance to kill it on the switchin)
56 EVs : 67.8% - 80% (far better chances, nearly a guaranteed KO with sandstorm)

e:
0 EVs vs 188/252 bold Vaporeon: 72.1% - 84.8% (impossible to get it on the switch)
56 EVs: 76.6% - 90.2% (small chance for a KO, again better chances with SS)

0 EVs vs standart Curselax 168/120 relaxed: 78.3% - 92.2%
56 EVs: 83.3% - 98.2%v

especially in a sandstorm, these are commonly critical damage changes since much of the time these pokemon will reply with a healing move, or buffing move that can cause even more problems if you lack strong priority users. Not only that, but each of these pokemon are common switches into heatran as counters, and are considerably more likely to happen than your scarfed heatran being the only counter to another scarfed heatran.

37.56% was heatran's usage, and 21% carried choice scarf. thats 7.88% of teams in the suspect that carried scarftran. Now consider the rarity of having a 1v1 scarf-off. If it happened every 5 times you encountered one (which is a much higher number than is probable) that means 1.58% of the time you would get a 50% chance to KO the opponent, giving you the added benifit .788% of the time. Now consider that its WAY more likely that when you encounter a tran, it would be more like 1/15 odds to be put in that situation. It just seems amazingly situational.

Now how many teams in suspect used blissey OR snorlax OR vaporeon OR gyarados. Now also take into account that these EVs probably help on even a few more KOs that haven't been calculated yet. i'm guessing this number is considerably higher than .788% (.105% if you take it as 1/15).

There is no question in my mind that the OP's EV spread should be at least put up as an alternate.

 

[cim]

Do you really think those extra EVs in HP will help more than 1% of the time?

 

[Luf]

Or you could use a spread of 56 Atk / 200 SpA / 252 Spe with a Naive nature so you OHKO Blissey with Explosion after Stealth Rock and can still tie with other max speed Scarf Heatran.

 

[eric the espeon]

@DahliaSky/cim:
Those numbers are entirely baseless, I get your point but it does not help to pluck numbers out of the air like that.

Örly: The whole point of this thread is to discuss whether max speed actually has notable advantages, not SpA or other stats. Special Attack is obviously the most important stat to max out EVs for, and losing points there for attack is nonsensical.

 

[DahliaSky]

@DahliaSky/cim:
Those numbers are entirely baseless, I get your point but it does not help to pluck numbers out of the air like that.

Örly: The whole point of this thread is to discuss whether max speed actually has notable advantages, not SpA or other stats. Special Attack is obviously the most important stat to max out EVs for, and losing points there for attack is nonsensical.

While they are very specific examples and are themselves not worth much, they show the amount more that an explosion gains with the proposed EV spread, and that it is a relevant amount in situations, by giving a couple example calculations against common switch in pokemon. They are not the ones i would have chosen if i had run the calcs, but i was just quoting them to include in my point.

 

[Philip7086]

A simple mention in AC will suffice for this, IMO. I'm not gonna lie, I am positive most top players will still run max Spe (ESPECIALLY if this alternate spread becomes popular) so I don't think this should be the main spread. I would personally never run anything less than max Spe on Scarf Heatran, because guaranteeing at least a speed tie is just really that important in this game.

 

[Setsuna]

After having thought more about these two spreads, I have to support the slower one being AC commentary -- let´s keep intact the one that Heatran already has on-site IMO.

 

[Setsuna]

I would like to get another QCer's input before moving this topic out of Quality Control.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

I think this makes 3, but I also support the slow spread being in AC.

 

[Setsuna]

Alright I'll take care of this from now. Thanks everyone.