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Smogon Usage-Based Tier Update: December 2014

Discussion in 'Smogon Metagames' started by Antar, Dec 1, 2014.

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  1. Antar

    Antar
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    As most of you know, the Smogon tiers were scheduled to update this month. For those new to our system, how our tiers work is that they're primarily based on usage (the names of the tiers, OU, UU, RU and NU, literally mean "Overused," "Underused," "Rarely Used" and "Never Used"*): Pokemon that are used heavily in the tier above get banned from the tiers below.

    Usually the way we calculate the tiers is by using a strict cutoff, above which a Pokemon goes in a tier and below which the Pokemon is allowed into the tier below.

    The cutoff we conventionally use is the point at which you're more than 50% likely to encounter that Pokemon at least once in a given day of playing, if you play 20 battles a day. For those that don't feel like doing the math themselves, that number is approximately 3.41%. So that means if a Pokemon is used on 4% of OU teams, it's considered OU and is banned from UU, RU and NU.

    Furthermore, it is our standard policy to base this 3.41% number on stats weighted over the previous three months, with 5/6 of the weighting from the last month, 1/8 from the month before that, and 1/24 from the month before that (ratio of 20-3-1).

    Finally, for those who are familiar with how we calculate usage stats know, we weight our stats based on player skill rating, and we're calculating stats using a baseline of 1695 for OU and 1630 for UU, RU and NU. To eliminate some numerical anomalies, we're also throwing out teams where the player's RD is greater than 100 (meaning they've had less than ~5 battles under their alt). This decision is detailed in this thread.

    On top of the usage-based tiers we also have "borderline" or "BL" tiers, which are essentially Ubers banlists for the lower tiers. These lists ban Pokemon that aren't used enough in the higher tiers but are too overpowered for the lower ones. BL banlists are not subject to usage stats, except a BL Pokemon can, of course, move into a higher tier (from BL to OU, from BL2 to UU).

    Also note that a Pokemon cannot drop more than one tier per update cycle. Say no one used Charizard in OU for the next three months. That would drop it down to UU, even though it had no usage in UU for that period (how could it? It was OU).


    So that's how we usually do it.

    But this time around, there have been some... complications.

    Firstly there was the release of the new games, complete with new mega evolutions and new move tutor moves. Overnight Pokemon like Altaria and Lopunny went from atrocious to awesome. All of the stats collected before the ORAS release suddenly no longer reflected the state of the metagame.

    Secondly... the PS server lost a hard drive, and with it, all the logs and stats from the past several years. This is largely my fault--I stopped running backups about six months ago. And since I stopped posting the monthly stats in threads quite some time ago, that meant that there was no practical way to get the data needed to update the tiers, since I'd only be able to work from about 10 days' worth of data.

    The cleanest option to move forward would have been to not update the tiers at all this month and put off the update until February 1, when we would have two full months and one partial month of data. But (1) that would have put a lot of responsibility on the suspect councils of the lower tiers to figure out which new megas didn't belong in their tiers and (2) it would needlessly delay the drop of Pokemon like Mawile, which has already been waiting three months to leave OU. Still, we didn't feel comfortable basing the tiers for the next three months solely on ten days of stats in a set of brand new metagames, where players are still discovering the best movesets and strategies.

    So we worked out a compromise: based exclusively on the stats collected since the ORAS release, we would allow rises and falls only when the usage data was dramatically off from the status quo. I said earlier that the cutoff between tiers is the point at which you're more than 50% likely to encounter a Pokemon at least once in 20 battles. Well, this month, we will allow to rise any Pokemon that you're more likely than not to see that Pokemon at least once in 10 battles (6.70% usage), and we'll allow to drop any Pokemon that you're unlikely to see in 40 battles (1.72% usage).

    This is far less than ideal, but it does allow us to perform some quick course-corrections without putting too much of the onus on suspect councils.

    We've also decided that we're going to do this again (with rise/drop levels a bit closer to 3.41%) in January. I apologize in advance to my fellow Wi-Fi players for whom monthly tier updates are a bit of a burden, but once February rolls around, our plan is to do a full, normal tier update, and we'll lock those changes in for a good three months. Thanks, everyone, for understanding! Feel free to post below with questions or concerns.

    Anyway, here's what you came for:

    Tier changes for December 2014:
    Code:
    Wobbuffet moved from RU to NU
    Lopunny moved from PU to RU
    Altaria moved from PU to UU
    Leafeon moved from NU to PU
    Pidgeot moved from PU to RU
    Sableye moved from UU to OU
    Dragalge moved from NU to RU
    Salamence moved from UU to OU**
    Sceptile moved from NU to RU
    Mawile moved from OU to UU
    Houndoom moved from UU to RU
    Beedrill moved from PU to UU
    Metagross moved from UU to OU
    

    *Note that PU doesn't stand for anything--it's a pun, since if you say it out loud it comes out "Pee Ew," in other words, those Pokemon stink.

    **Yes, OU just banned Salamencite. The timing sucks. Salamence will likely fall back down come January.
  2. boltsandbombers

    boltsandbombers i'm sorry mr. man
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    ᕙ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ᕗ Praise savior doge ᕙ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ᕗ
    Tressed, Kurona, TheEnder and 35 others like this.
  3. Shyfire

    Shyfire

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    i'm now going to rekt RU with savior doge
  4. Albacore

    Albacore has lost due to inactivity
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    Good to see Sableye in OU where it belongs. Really surprised to see Lopunny and Gallade in RU as opposed to UU/OU, but I'm assuming they'll move up in due time.
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  5. Antar

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    Lopunny and Gallade were both close--5.35% and 4.90% for OU, respectively, 5.79% and 6.41% in UU (I'll get the usage stats up as soon as I can figure out where)--if they keep those levels, they'll go OU next month.
    Albacore likes this.
  6. Pinkin Lark

    Pinkin Lark

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    Damn, was excited to have Sylveon/Mandi in UU (especially with that bastard Rachi gone), but I guess I'll have to wait another month.

    RIP Sableye though, UU will never forget your trollish ways.
  7. Amaluna

    Amaluna

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    So my wish came true. Mawile dropped from OU... But it's not going to last long in UU either, put it in NU or PU. Nobody in their right mind would use it. Wobbuffet is also horrible without Shadow Tag. Why would you use Telepathy Wobbuffet? However I do like that Beedrill and Dragalage moved up. As well as Lopunny, that balances it out quite a bit down there. My next goal is to drop Mawile even further, please make it happen.
  8. Antar

    Antar
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    Fairy/Steel is great typing--I wouldn't rule out Mawile finding a niche in one of the lower tiers, but Mawile will have the opportunity to drop all the way to NU by February if we keep the current plan. Similarly, Wobbs will have a chance to drop down to PU next month.
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  9. Mijzelffan

    Mijzelffan

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    What about sceptile? I thought it was pretty popular in all of ou, uu and ru. I was also surprised by Pidgeot rising to RU but not Glalie or Camerupt.
  10. Antar

    Antar
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    I'm going to stop commenting on individual pokemon usages (Sceptile was hovering around the same levels as the other two). The stats will be up later today, and you can peruse them to your heart's content.
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  11. Robert Alfons

    Robert Alfons ACAB
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    Can we just forcedrop Hitmonchan and Claydol from RU I don't want them anymore
  12. Shyfire

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    same here, i'm supprised Glalie and camerupt didn't even rise to NU (if they aren't already NU, idk i haven't done PU in a bit). I'm even more suprised Pidgeot rose to RU. IMO i think pidgeot will drop from RU at some point or another. I kinda figured Sceptile would rise to RU but i don't think it will get higher then that. Maybe BL2 at the most.
  13. Antar

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    Robert Alfons, this is something that has been discussed, but the answer right now is no. The only way we allow Pokemon drops is if they're not used.

    Also: Claydol hit 6.5% usage this month, so lol (I know I said I was going to stop).
  14. SketchUp

    SketchUp Don't let your memes be dreams

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    Savior Dog finally in RU, only need Scrafty and Kingdra now (they were very low in October iirc)
    Also, when will the trolls stop using Hitmonchan and Claydol just to keep them from NU? Nobody wants them in RU
  15. Antar

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    Clearly untrue. 6.5% of competitive players* want Claydol in RU.

    *technically 6.5% of battles, and the weighting function isn't a hard cutoff, but do you really want to get into the specifics?
  16. boltsandbombers

    boltsandbombers i'm sorry mr. man
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    That just means that 6.5% of RU players are using a mediocre and outclassed Pokemon, which is pretty unfortunate. Claydol is E rank in the RU viability, btw.
  17. Shyfire

    Shyfire

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    Claydol is god and all RU players should be using it (sacasm)
  18. Ranger Mike

    Ranger Mike

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    Bird jesus went ru at the same time as savior dog it's a sign!
  19. michaeloche

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    Damn, I was just about to slap Sceptilite on my NU team. Knew it was coming, though. Still has Camerupt, at least.

    Probably would have gotten some other drops had we played the full month without any crashes (e.g., Mandibuzz and Sylveon in OU, and the notorious Hitmonchan and Claydol). RU probably got the best of the tier shifts though, getting not one, but four decent megas (Doomer, Lop, which probably won't stay long, Scept, and Pidg), plus Dragalge (thank you based ORAS gods for giving it Adaptability). Might actually play RU now.
  20. Antar

    Antar
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    boltsandbombers that's 6.5% of players with a Glicko rating at, above or near 1630. A rating of 1630 is not trivial to obtain--it corresponds to beating 2/3 of all the players on the RU ladder. Even at the 1760 level (beating 80% of all the players on the ladder), Claydol is pulling down solidly RU usage. So clearly competent players are finding it useful.

    My point is not to defend these Pokemon--I haven't played RU in months, so I don't know--my point is that you (and everyone else) need to stop shitposting that these Pokemon are garbage when this is a thread about usage stats, and the usage stats say people are using it.
  21. bb skarm

    bb skarm GET THE FUCK OFF MY FIELD!!!
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    PRAISE SAVIOR DOGE ᕦ(ò_óˇ)ᕤ

    savior doge.png
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  22. Pokemoon

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    R. I. P. sableye (i'm not too unhappy about this since i hate sableye soooo much)
  23. Martin

    Martin Like the hole in a doughnut
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    oml hitmonchan and claydoll still haven't gone down :[[[[[[

    also you said Salamence was despite the fact it was BL

    y is m-lopunny only ru oml that is dumb

    also i can see beedrill moving to BL cause too many powerz and speedz

    im surprised at the lack of movement from Diancie. M-Diancie is really good in OU as it is a rocker that can beat M-Sableye 1-on-1

    y u no move up gallade??? :[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ dat SD+Skill Swap set to lure and beat M-Sableye is so goooood

    also not much longer before Diggersby BL-->OU now

    btw where can I access the usage stats? i can't see the thread anywhere.
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2014
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  24. EonX

    EonX One and Only
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    Ok, as an RU player, I'm quite pleased with this tier shift. We FINALLY get Savior Dog in a time where its Mega might have a shot at staying in the tier. (key word being might) Unfortunately, we don't get to have fun with Diancie, but the introduction of its Mega Evolution kinda made that innevitable. No Kingdra. Thank god. We also insta-lose Beedrill, which I'm not that broken up about. It was absolute hell for offensive teams to face and was really just overshadowed by Mega Lopunny and Mega Gallade (which stand a chance to be quickbanned soon) We keep Dragalge for now, but I get the feeling that might move up further to UU come next tier shift because that thing is crazy good now.

    Obligatory comment about being surprised and appalled that we couldn't dump Hitmoncrap and Suckdol on NU, especially with all the new toys we've had for the past 10 days. Oh well, maybe next tier shift the rest of the ladder will co-operate...
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  25. Antar

    Antar
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    oml this has been talked about so much in this thread so much already. seriously the next person to bring up chan or claydol is going to get their post deleted.

    From the tier list I was working from Mence was UU. And Mega Mence is Uber, so...

    Many of these are due to how the tier updates were calculated this month: Pokemon only rose if they had more than 6.7% usage instead of the usual 3.41%. I recommend actually reading the OP.

    Eventually they'll be up in this folder. @SmogonU will make an announcement when they go live.
    Thanks Brock Obama and Martin like this.
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