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Discussion in 'Smogon Metagames' started by Antar, May 2, 2015.
Antar what's the cutoff for quickrises in the second month?
This is more information than you asked for, but it comes up a lot, so this way I can just quote this post when it comes up again.
The cutoffs are calculated as the points at which there is less than a 50% chance of encountering the Pokemon once in N battles. The formula is:
For regular rises/drops, N=20 → 3.406%
For first month, N=10 for rises, 40 for drops → 6.697% / 1.718%
For second month, N=15 for rises, 30 for drops → 4.516% / 2.284%
Guys, we need to use Hitmonchan. We can't let it drop, so the hate towards it continues. PLEASE
RU please take Audino next month and give NU Skuntank.
So YOU are why it always gets just enough usage to stay RU every third month?
Use Typhlosion so there is a shiny new mon to hate on.
| 56 | Poliwrath | 4.207% |
Enjoy it for one more month PU :^)
I'll deal with any change as long as it shakes up this horribly stagnant meta that hasn't had significant changes in five months now (just give us a drop already ;-;)
| 64 | Bouffalant | 3.280% |
Magnemite at least PU gets something.
you guys are actually the worst tier ever(jokingly of course). You can't even drop one Pokemon. Basically a black hole.
A large number of Pokemon with usage about 3.41% actually indicates that the tier is incredibly diverse. So some might consider it the best tier ever.*
*Technically if we're going by that metric, UU beats NU...
Yeah, and last time it looked like we were going to get drops in a month between tier shifts, all 7 of them got enough usage to stay NU, both in the following month and the one after that which had the tier shift. I don't really have my hopes up.
I take it this is a recently added system, no? Torn-T didn't rise to OU during the April quick shifts even though it had over 4.516%.
If so, what is the reasoning behind this change?
SwedishBiscuit, we've had this system in place since the old PS server (and all its logs) were lost at the start of ORAS. I'll have to check into the specifics of Torn-T, but keep in mind second-month quick-rises are based on the two previous months' stats combined (ratio of 5-1).
Edit: You are correct. Torn-T had enough usage in April to rise. Not sure why it didn't. Might have accidentally applied the one-month threshold.
on the other hand it also likely means you have a high percentage of teams built by people just clicking things that are listed in the tier in teambuilder, since that tends to have a pretty large effect on buffing up the usage of mons that should drop.
Imanalt, theoretically players at the 1630-level should have some idea of what they're doing.
Legit question: how does the size of the NU viability rankings compare to those of other tiers?
given im fairly sure there's an observable change in usage of mons when they change tiers, even at the 1630 level, they don't seem to have enough of an idea (or at least a couple percent of them don't)
In order of Pokemon listed (S-D rank):
[02:30:22] G Thang: wow smogdex really hates on hitmonchan
[02:30:26] G Thang: fuck it... just for that ima use him
relevant to Hitmonchan dropping.
Molk and atomicllamas just ban Hitmonchan and Ambipom from the tier.
Apparently naming the set "DONT USE HITMONCHAN" somehow didn't get the message across -_-
meanwhile in Doubles we only actually bothered ranking 74 (78 if you include the "please do not use these" rankings)
May your time in RU have been the best ;(
Time to try out Mega Steelix I guess
You know maybe if you RU guys decided to not have an analysis for it, people couldn't look the fucker up and use it with the sets you're "recommending".