Serious The Politics Thread

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I said “prediction is unimportant and not valuable,” as the first sentence. You guys apparently can’t read.

And just like you and all Smogonites, we Pokemon players all have waaaaayy too much painful first hand experience in understanding how probability works.

This is specifically rebuffing Texas’ asinine framing about “being right about predictions” in the past being worth anything— and you guys go on to make walls of text proving my point for me— thanks.

insofar as they’re worth anything in backing up the merits of a person’s argument (which is again not much), you’d have to have been right about Trump beating Hillary in 2016 for me to even throw you the bone about past predictions.
 
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Chou Toshio said:
This is specifically rebuffing Texas’ asinine framing about “being right about predictions” in the past being worth anything— and you guys go on to make walls of text proving my point for me— thanks.
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Chou I like you but you're off your rocker if that's what you got from my post. No one is stupid enough to say listen to someone because they made a right prediction, that's the asininity here.

RaikouLover consistently makes well reasoned arguments, as they did four years ago. They aren't always correct, but largely their reasoning for how events would play out turned out accurately over the course of the last election. Recall the dozens of pages of posts debating who would win the Democratic primary and then later the election itself, and for as many times as I hoped or thought he'd be wrong for the most part he was right.

The point is that there's a fuckton of doom and glooming and shitting on the guy when he actually has a track record of having some credibility in knowing what he's talking about. That's all my post was saying, they're making reasonable arguments with a reasonable likelihood of occurring and don't deserve to be vilified as they have been under the framing in this thread of Biden being a guaranteed electoral loss against Trump.
 
Bakugames said:
They're both imperialist hawks with dogshit international policies so at the end of the day they're the same for things that matters to me, and the domestic policies aren't looking that great either. Maybe we should throw electorialism out fellas and do something else
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While I agree that to Brazil it makes little difference if it's a Republican or a Democrat sitting on the president chair, I will never forget that it was under Obama that the DOJ and FBI were involved in the Operation Car Wash which resulted in Lula getting jailed and Bolsonaro elected, a Trump loss would cause psychic damage to Bolsonaristas while Trump winning would energize them, so Biden's reelection is more desirable to me.
 
Ashaebi said:
I'll add to that. If Biden and the dems continually take their loyal voters for granted and that certainly includes Gen Z, they're gonna lose them to either a third party or simply them sitting out this election cycle and rightfully should.

The complacency and the entitlement of the democrat party to expect any voter demographic to continue to vote for them by default absolutely grinds my gears. Votes are earned not given for fuck sake. When will they man up, understand and take it at face value?
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To be fair, Biden and the Democrats first priority should be to the 14 million voters that voted for President Biden in the primary. This party coup if successful is the very subversion of democracy that an "installed" Democratic nominee will attempt to sell to the electorate Trump is doing. Frankly, that's a hypocritcal argument and voters will see it as such. This is just a terrible fuck up of epic proportions by the Democratic donor class.

Even if best case scenario the Democrats replace Biden AND still win, it is a pyrrhic victory at best. Voters do not take kindly to be being disenfranchised by their own party. And people have long memories about things as intimate as voting. Likewise, any candidate leapfrogging Kamala Harris (who I think has a slim chance of winning) will cause potentially irreparable damage to the Democratic brand in the black community.

For these reasons, the rational option is to stand pat and spend the next 115 days trying to get President Biden re-elected.
 
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Blue glass said:
While I agree that to Brazil it makes little difference if it's a Republican or a Democrat sitting on the president chair, I will never forget that it was under Obama that the DOJ and FBI were involved in the Operation Car Wash which resulted in Lula getting jailed and Bolsonaro elected, a Trump loss would cause psychic damage to Bolsonaristas while Trump winning would energize them, so Biden's reelection is a smidge more desirable to me.
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Its the thing where trump greatly influenced the creation of the far right bolsonaro allied group, but democrats allowed it to take power, so they both hold responsibility for me. Them being mad that trump lost would feel really karmic though... but also can someone just try stabbing Bolsonaro again, I feel like this time it'll work. I know these groups don't just fall apart because a leader is gone and new ones can continue the cycle but I can't stand that man anymore :mad:
 
adjectivenoun said:
He also referred to Harris as "Vice President Trump" during today's presser. It's not looking good.
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Sir, a second George W. Bush has entered the White House

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Bakugames said:
Its the thing where trump greatly influenced the creation of the far right bolsonaro allied group, but democrats allowed it to take power, so they both hold responsibility for me. Them being mad that trump lost would feel really karmic though... but also can someone just try stabbing Bolsonaro again, I feel like this time it'll work. I know these groups don't just fall apart because a leader is gone and new ones can continue the cycle but I can't stand that man anymore :mad:
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You and me both, he recently came to where I live to prop up his candidate to mayor, fortunately the event flopped. For sure Bolsonarismo will live on but hopefully he goes to jail soon or the stress from multiple investigations takes its toll and makes him... retire from politics. Sometimes I wonder what would have happened if Adélio had pushed just a little farther.
 
It will be cool when trump wins because he has some good ideas and is funny. Looking back at his presedency I think it was mostly good except his intial response to immigration and not strong condemning clearly racist protestors. Otherwise pretty good.

Joe Biden is old, he can't lead, who knows which bueocratics are in charge of what anymore
 
Platinum God n1n1 said:
It will be cool when trump wins because he has some good ideas and is funny. Looking back at his presedency I think it was mostly good except his intial response to immigration and not strong condemning clearly racist protestors. Otherwise pretty good.

Joe Biden is old, he can't lead, who knows which bueocratics are in charge of what anymore
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I'd interrogate this, but you'd just back down with your tail between your legs like you always do whenever anyone confronts you on anything, so what's the point really. I hope your life personally gets measurably worse when your clown dictator sells even more of this country out to megacorporations and cuts provisions for working class citizens. You should reap what you sow.
 
it goes back to what raikou touched on before right, mainstream political discourse is not substantive and instead we are encouraged to vote based on irrelevant superficial stuff like who is the better comedian or who would win an athletic competition etc.

this is not accidental, but a consequence of lying about the most fundamental social-historical facts: that amerikkka is a settler colony built on slavery and genocide, and that US imperialism is quantitatively responsible for the most devastating global violence in human history. there is no portion of amerikan society independent of these characteristics, thus it is impossible to have any substantive political conversations without facing these facts. which ofc the media will never do so instead we get discourses about haircuts and facial expressions, or speculative 'polls' about would trump beat x alternative candidate in michigan on a rainy wednesday afternoon; and conversely in the right wing media various contortions to pretend they are advocating for something other than an intensification of settler colonial genocide.
"it is ofc in the very nature of a myth that those who are its victims and at the same time its perpetrators should, by virtue of these two facts, be unable to examine the myth or even to suspect that it is a myth which controls and blasts their lives." (Nothing Personal) as long as the media continues to propogate the myths that the Founding Fathers fought the American Revolution for "Freedom" (rather than to protect the system of slavery and the spoils of settler colonialism) and that Amerika is the Greatest Country in the World (rather than the #1 imperial terrorist responsible for murdering millions of people every decade since 1940), it will be incapable of discussing much less understanding even the 'most straightforward' social political and economic questions.
 
Platinum God n1n1 said:
It will be cool when trump wins because he has some good ideas and is funny. Looking back at his presedency I think it was mostly good except his intial response to immigration and not strong condemning clearly racist protestors. Otherwise pretty good.

Joe Biden is old, he can't lead, who knows which bueocratics are in charge of what anymore
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One million Americans died as a result of the Trump administration's efforts to sabotage public pandemic responses. Trump left office with a massive self-inflicted economic crisis after riding the boom of the Obama years. This man is responsible for multi-billion dollar waste and turned pandemic relief into an opportunity for Republicans to plunder public coffers for personal profit. In a serious country, these facts alone should disqualify Republicans from serving in office ever again, and a serious country would have proscribed the party and arrested its leadership following the 1/6 attacks.

The idea a morbidly obese geriatric that notoriously speaks like a child is somehow more fit to serve than a four-year older, fit, established geriatric with a stutter is ridiculous on its face, but closer examination only shows how little anything you say matters to you. Nothing was better under Trump, not by any stretch of the imagination.But that's a given for Republicans, because they reliably lie about why they vote Republican in the first place. It's nothing to do with the "facts" and everything to do with harming their fellow countrymen.
 
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Platinum God n1n1 said:
It will be cool when trump wins because he has some good ideas and is funny. Looking back at his presedency I think it was mostly good except his intial response to immigration and not strong condemning clearly racist protestors. Otherwise pretty good.

Joe Biden is old, he can't lead, who knows which bueocratics are in charge of what anymore
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The relatively calm reaction to racist protestors isn't a minor blemish that can be corrected. His administration has continuously been bedfellows with these groups, with very obvious ties down to the administration's core.

Trump's cabinet was filled with the alt right. For an example pretty relevant to the case of immigration and those racist Charlottesville protestors, let's take a look at Stephen Miller. After palling around with vividly open neo nazi Richard Spenser (a planned speaker at the Unite the Right event, even) and getting a white supremacist to speak at Duke, Miller joined the Trump administration as a policy adviser, and would later be a speech writer and senior advisor to the president. His very cruel anti-immigrant stances were welcomed by the Trump administration, even with language that dipped its toes in white replacement conspiracy. This would end up being pretty transparently A to B later on; Miller had a habit of citing websites like VDARE that parroted debunked race science and baseless conspiracies for his positions, as was later exposed when several month's worth of emails with a revolted Brietbart correspondent were shared. When The Daily Beast contacted the white house about the emails, they told the outlet that it did not affect Trump's continued favorable view of him. Miller worked with the Trump administration until its end, and has continued fighting for the administration's harsh anti-immigrant stances under America First Legal, also helping with a neat hype video for Project 2025.

Trump has continued to surround himself with people of this variety even after his presidency. Accidentally palling around with Milo Yinnenopolis and Nick Fuentes paints a pretty identical picture to what he's spinning years later. Of course outside of a nitty-gritty example of what Trump wants in a cabinet recommending policy, there's also just the long history of weird racial stuff I'm not touching on. Prior action makes it really clear: these are the thinkers Trump wants to be around. These are Trumps ideas. I don't think they're very good or funny, and I might maybe double check and make sure you're comfortable saying that.
 
Welp someone almost blew Trump's face off at a rally, guaranteed win for him now. See y'all in the camps
adjectivenoun said:
Well, it's official. After eight years, someone has finally tried to shoot Donald Trump. Frankly, I'm surprised that it took this long. Get ready to see the image of Trump pumping his fist at the crowd while blood streaks down his face in propaganda for years to come.
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Yep this martyred him completely. Wild
 
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adjectivenoun said:
Well, it's official. After eight years, someone has finally tried to shoot Donald Trump. Frankly, I'm surprised that it took this long. Get ready to see the image of Trump pumping his fist at the crowd while blood streaks down his face in propaganda for years to come.
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I hate conspiracy theories. However, the amount of right-wing retweets within 10 minutes on Twitter with him making the fist pump directly into the camera with blood running down his face has my spidey sense tingling. Too many Republicans seem giddy about this. It is really weird.

look at Ted Cruz tweet. Looks like Hunger Games propo.

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Blue glass said:
As someone from a country that something similar happened (Bolsonaro getting stabbed) there is probably no conspiracy, they are just seizing the moment. If this had happened to Biden, everybody from the democratic side would be doing the same.
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No the hell we would not. The mood would be sorrow. Not a fist pump into the air with a perfectly positioned American flag behind him. They made a photo-op out of this!
 
I don't think this is a set up. Trump is insanely vain and basically chomping at the bit to become an icon and idolatred. Guy got cameras everywhere, I wouldn't be surprised if he refused imediate medical aid because he knew this was his chance to create more propaganda and doesn't think the wound is severe, which is kinda risky esp due to infection risks
 
Blue glass said:
Really? It would be the perfect counter to Biden being considered weak. Photographic proof that Biden is strong enough to survive a bullet.
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Lol. Alright, dude. The photo looks perfectly staged and was retweeted by half the Republican elected caucus in a matter of minutes. We’ve seen enough mass shootings in the United States to know what kind of hysteria would ensue in that situation.
 
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