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Serious The Politics Thread
- Thread starter Oglemi
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How would “the left” hold unions accountable? What even is “the left” in this context? You mean Bernie and AoC? You mean the DSA? You mean leftie YouTubers you trash? None of these folks seem like they’d have any power to stop O’Brien’s reactionary spiral (though left tube has critiqued it)—
only the members of the Teamsters could imo and there I have no idea why they’d keep a leader flirting with the right.
TYT I watched the other day for the first time in years and tbh they sound flat out Republican. What happened to them?
As for unions- most union workers are disgruntled, socially conservative white guys. It only make sense that their leadership would be flirting with the right. Unfortunately, a union leader speaking at the RNC is like an antelope giving a speech to a lion pride; it is so stupidly suicidal that it defies all logic.
My understanding (no data, but union interviews in left media so anyone feel free to challenge) is that unions today are not like Fred Flinstone’s one.
The Flight Attendants’ Union is one of the most ascendant in America by my understanding, and women are ascendant in Union leadership now I’ve heard. Minorities and youth also rising. I don’t have demographics, but UAW’s progressive stance on Gaza/Israel isn’t driven by labor rights but by member sentiment.
Of course UAW’s support for Biden isn’t about rad leftie members but because Biden earned it, and leadership made the endorsement early despite the rank and file’s distaste on foreign policy.
Unions are stronger thanks to Biden, continuing ascension guaranteed would be the greatest driver of progress from a Biden win— and O’brien’s absolutely detestable.
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Quick Google search says the teamsters are 75% male, 60% white
UAW by contrast is 50% male/female even split, 60-70% PoC
I dunno guys maybe the right is right about demographics = destiny. Sad.
Still fuck O’Brien— this has been a very pro-union President and Teamsters members are unsurprisingly majority Democrats
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Teamsters have been pretty conservative for big unions compared to something like UAW. Anyways from what I understand he kinda did this on his own, he's been getting a lot of flack internally for this.
You think they sound like Republicans because you've convinced yourself that anyone that criticizes the Democratic Party must be a Republican.
Incumbency doesn't matter. There has never been an incumbent with this low approval rating.
What does matter is that two-thirds of Democrat voters want Biden to step down. Kamala polls even with Biden in head-to-heads against Trump and she isn't even running. Even Pelosi is making calls trying to get him to step aside (while Bernie and AOC flounder by trying to get Biden to support policies, making the mistake that policies matter in this election).
Still crazy to me that anyone could do the mental gymnastics needed to believe that Biden is able to turn this around, let alone feel smug enough to condescend to anyone who dares suggest that there may be better options.
Yeah the entire fate of the nation literally dependent on Nancy Pelosi and maybe Obama now. Wasn’t on my bingo card.
I disagree that Bernie or AoC should be doing anything differently, but maybe Bernie didn’t need to go as far as writing an OpEd— but if in his mind critical progressive agenda is dead without a personal friend of his in the Oval Office— can’t blame him for thinking that. Whatever Bernie’s old too and the left has to think for itself.
I disagree that Bernie or AoC should be doing anything differently, but maybe Bernie didn’t need to go as far as writing an OpEd— but if in his mind critical progressive agenda is dead without a personal friend of his in the Oval Office— can’t blame him for thinking that. Whatever Bernie’s old too and the left has to think for itself.
It's probably a response to the reports of senior Democrats anonymously accepting that Trump is going win, in a refusing to give up, let's try anything sort of way. There's also the fact that the calls for Biden's withdrawal are being taken seriously because they are coming from moderates, whereas centrists would just knee-jerk disagree and shut down the conversation if the progressive wing pushed for it. I don't think that's part of their calculus, and I wish they'd just do what Tlaib is doing and sit back while the Dems step in their own shit, but it's worth noting.
Either way, it is funny that Bernie and AOC are trying harder to salvage Biden's candidacy than any centrist Democrat, while American leftists are praying to Kamala and Pelosi for salvation. Strange bedfellows all around.
Whatever. Biden's only real shot at winning in November missed by a few inches. I'm trying to stay a little optimistic that Biden will face reality and stop holding the party hostage for his own thirst for power, but it doesn't seem likely.
Either way, it is funny that Bernie and AOC are trying harder to salvage Biden's candidacy than any centrist Democrat, while American leftists are praying to Kamala and Pelosi for salvation. Strange bedfellows all around.
Whatever. Biden's only real shot at winning in November missed by a few inches. I'm trying to stay a little optimistic that Biden will face reality and stop holding the party hostage for his own thirst for power, but it doesn't seem likely.
Definitely odd bed fellows— I think it’s good that there are progressives on both sides so centrist know we’re also not a monolith… incorporates the left more into mainstream acceptance.
but none of that matters if Biden loses… nothing else matters if the Dems lose…
Criticism of Democrats is fair. My issue is with those pushing the “Biden must drop out” narrative 3.5 months before the election. It is not happening. The man said he is not dropping out 100 times. At this point, one has to question if the calls are in good faith.
This is objectively wrong. Incumbency is very important in elections. In POTUS elections in particular, it is important because the incumbent party goes into the election more unified than the opposition party, which had 18 months of a brutal primary.
It does not matter how many Democrats prefer their “ideal candidate” in a vaccum. It is a pointless question. Frankly, the poll belongs in the bullshit pile with the all the other polls that return fewer non-white respondents than a classroom.
It is not funny. People just aren’t paying attention. Adam Schiff calls for Biden to drop out the day after meeting with the party mega-donors in the Hamptons. At some point, one has to ask why are AOC, Bernie Sanders, and nearly every non-white (black and Latino especially) representative expressing open support or neutrality for President Biden? But all the overwhelmingly white so-called “centrists” are calling for Biden’s head? Maybe you don’t see it, but voters of color certainly do.
And again I reiterate, it is asinine from every historical perspective to replace Biden with VP Harris (who is already on the fucking ticket btw) due to “polls.”
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In a recent interview with BET, Biden said that he'd consider dropping out if a medical doctor diagnosed him with a good enough reason. It's the most open to the idea he's publicly seemed, and could suggest a soft-launch of a sympathetic narrative to exit the ticket. Pelosi might be getting it done, making them calls, putting in that work
I think the strongest case anyone could make to him is that his legacy as a one-term transitional president will be much better than a one-term who bungled an election against Trump. He clearly only cares about his image, despite the fact that it's being tarnished by that very desire.
Still not confident it's gonna happen, but it's feeling more and more like the way the wind is blowing. Hearing Adam Schiff advocate for it, and admit that the centrists all dropped out in 2020 to prevent a Bernie nominee, has been wild. I'm not used to hearing so many centrists acknowledge reality.
I think the strongest case anyone could make to him is that his legacy as a one-term transitional president will be much better than a one-term who bungled an election against Trump. He clearly only cares about his image, despite the fact that it's being tarnished by that very desire.
Still not confident it's gonna happen, but it's feeling more and more like the way the wind is blowing. Hearing Adam Schiff advocate for it, and admit that the centrists all dropped out in 2020 to prevent a Bernie nominee, has been wild. I'm not used to hearing so many centrists acknowledge reality.
By that Biden meant a major medical episode. It’s not impossible for something to happen to an 81 year old candidate in the midst of peak campaign. Bernie Sanders had a heart attack during his…
EDIT: President Biden has allegedly tested positive for covid-19. Possible context to the comment.
I think you are seeing what you want about the whole situation. You don’t like Biden which is fine. It still doesn’t change the reality of the situation. History will knock the Democrats on their ass if they think that picking a “fresh” nominee over their own incumbent 3.5 months before the election is a good idea.
Notice how Adam Schiff prostituting himself for mega-donors in the Hamptons was casually glossed over.
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Biden has tested positive for COVID. Even more scrutiny of his health! I can't wait.
In a few decades the alt history nerds are gonna have a field day with the 2024 alternative history where both US presidents die within a week a few months before the election.
That said Biden is vaccinated and has 24 hour access to the literal best medical staff in the world. He'll be fine.
That said Biden is vaccinated and has 24 hour access to the literal best medical staff in the world. He'll be fine.
Neither party had real primaries since 2016 if we're being honest.
The better question is why didn't the Democrats build a successor to Biden during his administration? Surely Kamala ain't it.
Now it's definitely too late to make any changes, but the hit pieces keep coming, which only makes the situation worse. To be honest, that's on-brand for the Dems. It's really astonishing how utterly inept they are at the most basic things.
Yes, please be honest. Biden won the primary in 2020, picked a black woman to be VP, and some people within the party clearly have an issue with it.
This conversation is donor led, and the mega-donors are freezing contributions to all congressional Democrats that back the Biden-Harris ticket. How democratic of them.
History is clear on what happens to the incumbent president’s party when he does not seek a second term. If they continue down this path, I’d advise people to make contingency plans for the coming Trump dictatorship.
Sources suggesting Biden may drop out as soon as this weekend... If it happens, any thoughts on Kamala's best running mate? Josh Shapiro seems to be the smartest bet I've heard, though I'm worried it'll be Buttigieg. Roy Cooper is apparently campaigning with her too, so maybe he's the pick.
The Dems had a real primary in 2020, they just showed an uncanny ability to coordinate and play the game to prevent Bernie's success. I wish they showed that commitment to tactics and strategy against conservatives, but alas.
Kamala is polling ahead of Biden and she isn't even running, so it's hard to say she isn't it. And it's not too late, European countries have entire election seasons in less time than we have til November. It's time to give the "anyone but these two candidates " voters what they want.
The Dems had a real primary in 2020, they just showed an uncanny ability to coordinate and play the game to prevent Bernie's success. I wish they showed that commitment to tactics and strategy against conservatives, but alas.
Kamala is polling ahead of Biden and she isn't even running, so it's hard to say she isn't it. And it's not too late, European countries have entire election seasons in less time than we have til November. It's time to give the "anyone but these two candidates " voters what they want.
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“Sources.”
Kamala Harris has a slimmer electoral path to the Presidency than Biden. The best bet to get Biden off the ticket and still win is if he resigns the Presidency to her and she goes into November as an incumbent.
Let’s be clear, that is NOT what the donors want. They are pushing for a “mini-primary” at the convention. They want a completely new ticket. A contested convention with no incumbent is exact recipe for throwing the election to the Republicans.
This entire saga; the pants shitting, backstabbing of your incumbent, and donor subversion of democracy is fucking political suicide. Brace yourselves.
Look, you can keep rejecting polling, leadership, the clear desires of the vast majority of Dem voters, and objective reality, or you can get behind the Dems and beat the Republicans in November. The only people saying they still want Biden on the ticket are Republicans because they know he's most likely to lose.
I'm sorry you won't get the candidate you want but at this point, your doomer nihilism is only helping Trump win. This is clearly the direction things are going. Get on board or get out of the way of the people who actually care about stopping fascism.
I'm sorry you won't get the candidate you want but at this point, your doomer nihilism is only helping Trump win. This is clearly the direction things are going. Get on board or get out of the way of the people who actually care about stopping fascism.
I absolutely will. Polls are your sole “source” for the entire argument.
Leadership is beholden to party mega-donors.
Source = “polls”
This is projection on your part. The primary already happened. President Biden won. He was the Democratic nominee in 2020 and again in 2024. You are still re-litigating it. Look in the mirror.
No. Objective reality was stated here:
Ignore history at your peril.
Can you please share your resources that you get these claims from? I don't mean op-eds written by people that want Biden to stay in the race. I mean clear, statistical sources that show that Biden is not only the best candidate come November, but one's showing that he's absolutely not being obliterated in swing states. I think it's really interesting that you seem to know more than the most powerful people in the Democratic party, you know, the people that have been content with the status quo for literal decades. You've been saying the same shit about political suicide over and over for the past month, citing maybe some political strategist you expect us to know, while never having an answer for why someone as milquetoast as Nancy Pelosi is currently doing everything she can to make Biden step down. "History" is not a valid answer, either. Biden is deeply unpopular, on the verge of death, and has almost no support from independents. Do you truly believe centrist Democrats want to lose the election? Do you think they don't have access to accurate, internal polling that shows it'll be a fucking bloodbath if Biden remains the candidate? Please provide actual evidence when you respond to this. So far it's been nothing but "trust be bro" and "crosstabs."
You can't trust hearsay, even when it's reported on by reputable sources. I'll be doubtful that he's dropping out right up until it actually happens. That said, Shapiro could be a good pick if he handles the fallout of the assassination attempt well.
They couldn’t even fit in the donors.
Democrats have NEVER been so united.
Again, your entire argument comes down to "polls are bad, we must do something." Polls are not predictive, not reliable, and are manipulated to drive narratives. We discussed the bullshit polls at length in this thread- the bad sample sizes, lack of accurate cross tabs, and people just generally being unwilling to actually post the poll data directly in this thread. Polls are not how campaigns are won and lost. I have repeatedly laid out the both the historical argument (see Allan Lictman's Keys to the White House), and the political scientists I've followed (you can start with Dr. Jason Johnson, Rachel Bitecofer, Chris Towler) are unanimously of the opinion that dumping an incumbent President is a terrible idea, and is damn near apocalyptic at this stage of the cycle. Every time a party fails to unite behind their incumbent President, they lose. Yet, people keep arguing this is an exceptional case and will be different. That is the definition of insanity.
I think whatever discontent you have for "candidate Biden" has so tainted the ability for the "Biden drop out" crowd to see the forest from the trees. Adam Schiff said Biden should step down literally the day after leaving a fundraiser in the fucking Hamptons. The donors have told congressional Democrats they will freeze funding for anyone that supports the Biden-Harris ticket. I don't know how to paint the picture clearer than that. James Carville actually recommended this very plan at the beginning of this news cycle. Bernie Sanders, AOC, Ilhan Omar, the Congressional Black Caucus, are standing united with Biden, but now self-proclaimed leftist voters are championing Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi? Make it make sense.
And for those thinking Kamala Harris will "save us," let's be clear. They do not want her. The donors never mention her as a replacement, and have already leaked their plan is to have a primary at the convention. This is anti-democratic, and would be a pyrrhic victory at best. It is the exact opposite of what a party trying to win in November should be doing.
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