Exactly, people are excited for Kamala Harris somehow, Biden is to blame for fumbling this.Any warm body will do for the Democrats. This whole mess just happened because instead of coming out with Kamala right out the gate, they picked the one guy who wasn't a warm body. When your candidate makes Jeb Bush look like Saxton Hale, you're cooked. Plain and simple.
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Serious The Politics Thread
- Thread starter Oglemi
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Without the risk of croaking mid-term and also being able to not get folded in a debate!
I really don't get all this hating. You don't really think people actually left home in the 2024 primaries to vote specifically for Joe Biden, do you?
I do not understand the question. Debates have no effect on election outcomes. Kamala Harris was already part of the administration and was already on the ticket (that’s why she inherited all the campaign infrastructure). If he croaked mid-term, this is the same outcome.
Any warm body will do for the Democrats. This whole mess just happened because instead of coming out with Kamala right out the gate, they picked the one guy who wasn't a warm body. When your candidate makes Jeb Bush look like Saxton Hale, you're cooked. Plain and simple.
A warm body was always going to do for the Democrats. This is no different than the Republicans saying they will run through a wall to vote now because Trump almost got assassinated. No new votes have been created.
Anything even relating to Coconuts has to be the winner here. Thank you Coconut Queen.
On some happier news at least for the left, I gotta say: Republicans seem to be absolutely losing their SHIT since this announcement. Tons of legal challenges, attacking Kamala based on obvious race and sex dogwhistles, trying to make her seem weird for.... laughing, etc. They seemed confident enough in beating Biden they picked one of the worst VP picks with traditional political theory, and now they're scuttling around trying to find ANY dirt to make Kamala look worse.
On some happier news at least for the left, I gotta say: Republicans seem to be absolutely losing their SHIT since this announcement. Tons of legal challenges, attacking Kamala based on obvious race and sex dogwhistles, trying to make her seem weird for.... laughing, etc. They seemed confident enough in beating Biden they picked one of the worst VP picks with traditional political theory, and now they're scuttling around trying to find ANY dirt to make Kamala look worse.
In 24 hours 888,000 unique donors (all sizes)— 60% of which were FIRST time Democratic donors.
I look at that and think— “Well clearly she won’t bring in any additional voters Biden wouldn’t have gotten.”
I look at that and think— “Well clearly she won’t bring in any additional voters Biden wouldn’t have gotten.”
This is a borderline bad faith argument tbh.
Debates are when candidates get face-to-face, live, and in the case of the US Presidential Debates, not just live, they're broadcast internationally as well.
But nah, they have no effect.
For what its worth, the big talking point was Obama beating Romney after a debate performance where respondents said Romney won by more than current polls say Trump beat Biden. That said, that was in 2012, while politics today feel much more populist and vibes based to the elusive indecisive voter. That was also one debate, while Trump would likely get three in a row of that embarrassment.View attachment 650875
This is a borderline bad faith argument tbh.
Debates are when candidates get face-to-face, live, and in the case of the US Presidential Debates, not just live, they're broadcast internationally as well.
But nah, they have no effect.
View attachment 650875
This is a borderline bad faith argument tbh.
Debates are when candidates get face-to-face, live, and in the case of the US Presidential Debates, not just live, they're broadcast internationally as well.
But nah, they have no effect.
Nope, not bad faith. Hillary Clinton won all three debates. John Kerry won all three debates. Barack Obama got demolished in his first debate 2012, and chalked it up to a “bad night.” Political enthusiasts like to think debates matter, but they don’t.
Debates don't matter all that much, but Biden's perfomance confirmed everybody fears that he was too old for more fours years. Besides all the others problems that his campaign was facing.
I think this is a great moment for anyone to give this a rewatch— Death and Dynasties in Rules for Rulers. It’s ALWAYS the JOB of the king’s court (his true keys of power) to be panicking about when/if they need to replace him.
Every king, every seat of power must constantly show his court continued fitness to rule, and a robust plan of succession— but even then, it’s never a guarantee that panicked keys will not replace you. The more surprising thing is that more wasn’t done sooner on the Dem side.
And then maybe go back and rewatch the whole Rules for Rulers if you’ve forgotten how integral it is for the king to manage his keys to power.
Every king, every seat of power must constantly show his court continued fitness to rule, and a robust plan of succession— but even then, it’s never a guarantee that panicked keys will not replace you. The more surprising thing is that more wasn’t done sooner on the Dem side.
And then maybe go back and rewatch the whole Rules for Rulers if you’ve forgotten how integral it is for the king to manage his keys to power.
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You already know why Biden was pushed to do this. You acknowledged it multiple times earlier in the thread. I'm really not sure why you're continuing to press the issue; it's not going to lead you anywhere productive.
Kamala Harris is spry, an excellent public speaker (i.e. cleanly beating Mike Pence in polls in 2020 VP debate), and will take initiative in areas Biden didn’t due to her more steadfast character. Most importantly: she will inject a ton of enthusiasm into previously disenfranchised democrats. Harris has a very realistic chance (>50%) of winning this election in my opinion.
Without a shadow of doubt, she will obliterate Trump in a debate if it were to happen. Many overlook: Donald is super old as well, he is 78 years old and well past his mental prime (although considering he didn’t write the Art of the Deal, maybe he never had a mental prime to begin with). She will strongly respond to his bully-esque, anti-democratic provocations with superior rhetoric and make him look like a fool. Pretty soon, the media will remind the American populace that one of its presidential candidates was convicted on 34 counts of felony. Kamala might even remind the public herself If she’s well-prepared enough.
This momentum, the huge financial support coming in after she took the reins, and all of the concerns about the bad orange man returning to his lonely throne of evil will cascade. Nobody intelligent and ethical wants Donald as the US’ president. This election is no longer about the lesser of 2 evils, but good vs evil, at least in the eyes of many Americans. Put another way: I am confident good will triumph over evil due to the circumstances.
I would characterize this election as the following Pokemon scenario: the superior, up-and-coming player overcomes a bad matchup and hax to deliver a crushing victory against a taunting, inferior, formerly banned player.
Forget the “First Lady,” it’s time for the “First Woman.” The swag-tsunami
is on its way.
Without a shadow of doubt, she will obliterate Trump in a debate if it were to happen. Many overlook: Donald is super old as well, he is 78 years old and well past his mental prime (although considering he didn’t write the Art of the Deal, maybe he never had a mental prime to begin with). She will strongly respond to his bully-esque, anti-democratic provocations with superior rhetoric and make him look like a fool. Pretty soon, the media will remind the American populace that one of its presidential candidates was convicted on 34 counts of felony. Kamala might even remind the public herself If she’s well-prepared enough.
This momentum, the huge financial support coming in after she took the reins, and all of the concerns about the bad orange man returning to his lonely throne of evil will cascade. Nobody intelligent and ethical wants Donald as the US’ president. This election is no longer about the lesser of 2 evils, but good vs evil, at least in the eyes of many Americans. Put another way: I am confident good will triumph over evil due to the circumstances.
I would characterize this election as the following Pokemon scenario: the superior, up-and-coming player overcomes a bad matchup and hax to deliver a crushing victory against a taunting, inferior, formerly banned player.
Forget the “First Lady,” it’s time for the “First Woman.” The swag-tsunami
is on its way.
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so from my perspective, on the left's perspective, there's two reasons:
one is that biden has been bad on israel/palestine in a way that i think even few democrats would have been. obama and hillary in the obama adminstration more or less came to understand netanyahu as a malcontent who only operated in bad faith, whereas the biden admins handling of him has to me felt like "give him whatever he wants" and then seem suprised when netanyahu yoinks away the peace treaty football every time a ceasefire appears to be negotiated. democrats are in general much farther to the right on what the left sees as ideal for israel/palestine. but biden's complicity in enabling what could most generously be described as "killing thousands of civilians is good if we catch a single terrorist" policy from israel has been wretched in a way i have difficulty imagining most other dems replicating.
the other is that biden has been polling behind trump pretty consistently this calendar year. now you've made your distrust in the polls clear (and i do think a lot of what the polls have reported re: votes 35 and under don't pass the common sense test). i also dont think its impossible that the polls are completely whiffing on opinion but dismissing them wholesale is foolish imo. biden has been unpopular for reasons i'd mostly consider bullshit (afghanistan, inflation) and that's been pretty consistent over his presidency. these same polls are also reflecting holistic democratic overperformance that's been the case since the dobbs decision-- in a way that seems to defy typical "unpopular top of the ticket trickles down and ruins everyone else" kind of way. this makes biden stepping down a uniquely compelling case, as far as historical comparisons go.
with biden being down as consistently as he's been, in my eyes that means something would have to change for him to make a comeback. the debate in my eyes basically sealed that as out of the question. even aside from him coming off as "he's aged noticeably over the past year or so", by far the most damning part of the debate was when he turned a question about abortion into a rambling about illegal immigrants killing american citizens. this is by far the most advantageous talking point biden (and any dem) have-- abortion rights being on the line, plus basically every trump republican being electorally radioactive (although trump is less so, anecdotally he seems to get a lot of undue credit for the economy under his term). that biden turned a 60mph pitch right down the middle into an opportunity to sound like a fox news pundit is baffling, and indicative to me of biden not being able to meet the moment.
while kamala is still attached to the biden regime, ideally biden not seeking reelection would make this election less of a referendum on biden. additionally, kamala would also get to borrow some electoral credibility from one of the several electoral superstar dem governor doughboys our beautiful country has to offer (and also whitmer would be a good choice imo). logically im still not enthused about the prospect of kamala but jesus christ i do not want trump again. i would love nothing more than to spend now until november in "we are so fucking back mode". im like a jets fan who really thinks the backup quarterback could maybe be good
I spent too long looking into your argument. Let’s unpack it in more detail.
First of all, Quinnipiac polling. I must admit, this is a good, scholarly source. It’s the first poll that comes up when you filter site:.edu. But, upon reading this document, I noticed something interesting.
In the exact same question posed as the one you picked, but with Biden instead of Harris, it’s a similarly wide gap. 17 points vs 19 points is a difference of 2 I will give you that, but 37% vs 39% support is also a difference of 2. In age 35-49, which you also have circled, Biden is unquestionably worse than Harris. Across all demographics — including the most notable one, total — Kamala amassed higher numbers than Joe. Note: poll #1 has a lot more volunteer/refusal answers than poll #3, the reason why is not touched upon in the source. It’s possible that the excess in these alternative answers may mean that Biden and Trump’s gap is being understated in the polls.
Now, let me ask you this, do these statistics imply a catastrophe? In my opinion, definitely not.
If anything, the statistics support anywhere from a substantial improvement (black and Hispanic voters much prefer Kamala to Joe) to a very slight decline (as you pointed out, a 2% greater gap between 18-34 voters). I am not sure why there is such a strong reaction though. The numbers you yourself selected do not indicate Kamala being substantially less popular than Biden. In fact, in my opinion, they show her as more popular than him.
Just for due diligence’s sake, I did some additional research. Here are some quotes I pulled:
While this is definitely not a fantastic statistic, it shows that Kamala Harris is much more likely to hang onto Gen Z/millennial voters than either Joe Biden or Donald Trump when alternative candidates are introduced to the race.
I found more evidence that Harris eclipses Biden in terms of young voter popularity, this one is from polling done by the New York Times. It is a little narrow because it only focuses on Pennsylvania and Virginia though.
The point I am trying to make here is not that Harris is not more popular than Biden with younger voters. I personally think she is, but the evidence I found to support that belief is marginal. You can believe that she is slightly worse if you would like. The point I am trying to make is this: she is definitely not catastrophically worse than Biden. I think believing that she is way worse than him with any key demographics is disingenuous to or misinterpreting the facts.
I think you might be scared of the fact that bad orange man wins because this political move seems disjointed and brazen to you due to a lack of historical precedent, and the fact that Joe Biden’s presidency was very uncontroversial. You want to avoid a worst case scenario, and you genuinely believe that Kamala is not as well-equipped to defeat evil as Joe is, which is fine. I think what might help you most would be to place a trust in Kamala to get it done. She has a lot of pros that Biden cannot share, and a lot of pros that he does share too. I am sorry to say this: I don’t believe you know better than the people who strategize campaigns for a living. Having faith in this to all work out instead of feeling doomed will probably soothe your soul too, so there is benefit in that regard as well. And if you want to double down and disagree with me on all of this, I won’t stop you either. I just hope you do it for your own sake too.
Kamalomomola
FTW!Now, let me ask you this, do these statistics imply a catastrophe? In my opinion, definitely not.
If anything, the statistics support anywhere from a substantial improvement (black and Hispanic voters much prefer Kamala to Joe) to a very slight decline (as you pointed out, a 2% greater gap between 18-34 voters). I am not sure why there is such a strong reaction though. The numbers you yourself selected do not indicate Kamala being substantially less popular than Biden. In fact, in my opinion, they show her as more popular than him.
Just for due diligence’s sake, I did some additional research. Here are some quotes I pulled:
View attachment 650915
While this is definitely not a fantastic statistic, it shows that Kamala Harris is much more likely to hang onto Gen Z/millennial voters than either Joe Biden or Donald Trump when alternative candidates are introduced to the race.
View attachment 650917
I found more evidence that Harris eclipses Biden in terms of young voter popularity, this one is from polling done by the New York Times. It is a little narrow because it only focuses on Pennsylvania and Virginia though.
The point I am trying to make here is not that Harris is not more popular than Biden with younger voters. I personally think she is, but the evidence I found to support that belief is marginal. You can believe that she is slightly worse if you would like. The point I am trying to make is this: she is definitely not catastrophically worse than Biden. I think believing that she is way worse than him with any key demographics is disingenuous to or misinterpreting the facts.
I think you might be scared of the fact that bad orange man wins because this political move seems disjointed and brazen to you due to a lack of historical precedent, and the fact that Joe Biden’s presidency was very uncontroversial. You want to avoid a worst case scenario, and you genuinely believe that Kamala is not as well-equipped to defeat evil as Joe is, which is fine. I think what might help you most would be to place a trust in Kamala to get it done. She has a lot of pros that Biden cannot share, and a lot of pros that he does share too. I am sorry to say this: I don’t believe you know better than the people who strategize campaigns for a living. Having faith in this to all work out instead of feeling doomed will probably soothe your soul too, so there is benefit in that regard as well. And if you want to double down and disagree with me on all of this, I won’t stop you either. I just hope you do it for your own sake too.
Kamalomomola
I did not post the poll to imply Biden or Kamala is “better” or “worse” than each other. The poll was posted to show that polls in general are bullshit. Kamala Harris is not losing 18-34 to Donald Trump. None of these cross tabs make sense because the polls this cycle are all bullshit.
My overarching theme was that the polls (with the help of the media) are pushing a false narrative that Trump is a juggernaut vs. the Democrats and nothing we do will stop him. Every Democrat polled vs. Trump has been shown losing. Yet people still are basing their opinions on polls.
Trump will likely get 46% of the vote in November. 53-54% of the electorate will vote against him. Only way that changes is if the Democrats do something else stupid to splinter the party. Which I am admittedly surprised this was actually pulled off and unified this quickly.
Kamala had a pretty good first rally. Covered all the key points that have been big issues domestically in the past year including the abortion ban, project 2025, Donald Trump's crime record, etc.
I was thinking that this shift was a mistake (and still think it could be to some degree) but this hail-merry play might work out. Wouldn't be the first time historical norms were thrown out of the window this race (i.e. Donald Trump's failed assassination barely helping him out in the polls).
I was thinking that this shift was a mistake (and still think it could be to some degree) but this hail-merry play might work out. Wouldn't be the first time historical norms were thrown out of the window this race (i.e. Donald Trump's failed assassination barely helping him out in the polls).
I just watched the rally speech and her energy and messaging were uplifting and clear. She did a great job.
For all the hate on Joe Biden, I think people have forgotten that Kamala is no better policy wise. She still supports the expansion of the American Empire which comes with it multiple genocides in Gaza, Yemen, DRC, and more. She still wants to worsen tensions with Russia, China, and Iran. Still wants to continue colonizing Africa. Still wants to support dictatorships and fascist regimes. She still wants to continue our abhorrent border policies and not work to solve the border crisis. She is Pro Cop, does not want common sense police reform, does not want common sense drug reform, does not want common sense homelessness reform and continue treating them like lesser people. She is still pro corporation and will continue to let them fuck over the economy. Its a very democrat party thing to have a chance to have a good candidate and go with one that will do nothing to improve the country long term.
Welcome to the Democrats. Always expect to want more out of them.
Candidates themselves do not improve the country. A President is only as progressive as the Congress and people hold them accountable to be. Dream candidate can have the best platform ever, not a damn thing is getting done if Congress doesn’t go along with it.
“Status quo” does improve the country long term if the alternative is regression. I made a lateral change of jobs (same position, same salary) two years ago because the new company and opportunity was better. There was no other tangible benefit to be had at the time. Got promoted a month ago. Sometimes you must move horizontally before you can go forward.
The democrats are currently murdering many people and will continue to do so. It *might* not be me specifically that they will kill, but regardless, that is backwards movement, not sideways
Oh dear god please. Look, I get it, I've even made this argument before in other contexts (and I'm right), but like, a truly progressive anti-imperialist candidate is nowhere to be found on the ballot. There is no "good option", there are only less bad ones.
Unlike some other people in this thread I don't advocate for electoralism being the be-all-end-all to fixing the U.S.'s problems. Participating in local elections, building strong unions (ideally ones that aren't corrupt as fuck and lead by a scab in bed with the conservatives) and mutual aid cooperatives, and generally fucking touching grass and interacting with people and spreading good ideas by example, not arguing on the internet, are far more productive avenues to invest energy in.
At the end of the day though, the "U.S. empire" isn't going to go anywhere overnight, and somebody's gonna be at the helm of that empire. Our ideal candidate does not exist in American politics. Hell, a truly good candidate does not exist in American politics. If our options are a neoliberal hack with shit foreign policy who doesn't want to bomb Mexico and send LGBTQ+ people to the camps and a neoliberal hack with shit foreign policy who does want to do that, it's an obvious choice. As I've said before, I am highly dubious about electoralism's ability to fix our problems but I know damn well it can make them worse.
Unlike some other people in this thread I don't advocate for electoralism being the be-all-end-all to fixing the U.S.'s problems. Participating in local elections, building strong unions (ideally ones that aren't corrupt as fuck and lead by a scab in bed with the conservatives) and mutual aid cooperatives, and generally fucking touching grass and interacting with people and spreading good ideas by example, not arguing on the internet, are far more productive avenues to invest energy in.
At the end of the day though, the "U.S. empire" isn't going to go anywhere overnight, and somebody's gonna be at the helm of that empire. Our ideal candidate does not exist in American politics. Hell, a truly good candidate does not exist in American politics. If our options are a neoliberal hack with shit foreign policy who doesn't want to bomb Mexico and send LGBTQ+ people to the camps and a neoliberal hack with shit foreign policy who does want to do that, it's an obvious choice. As I've said before, I am highly dubious about electoralism's ability to fix our problems but I know damn well it can make them worse.
Part of the problem, I think, is that a lot of people either can't or won't conceive of the possibility of doing multiple things. If you concern yourself with elections to any significant extent, people tend to assume that you aren't doing anything else to build community or prepare for life in the world to come. I've seen this both on here and elsewhere online.
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